Bullpen 2017

nvalvo

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Luckily Castillo will be making his boneheaded plays in Pawtucket. I really hope they don't release Hembree so they can keep Abad.
I would also hate that, even if Abad's better than he's shown us, but it doesn't look like they'll need to.

The 'pen will probably be:

Kimbrel CL
Thornburg RH SU (but with a reverse split! good against righties, great against lefties)
Kelly RH SU 1 option
Ross Jr. LH SU 1 option
Barnes RH MR 2 options
Abad LH MR
Hembree RH MR 0 options

That leaves Carson Smith on the DL, and Eduardo Rodriguez, as the SP with (2) options remaining, rebuilding his strength and watching his innings count in managed outings in AAA. Some people might find that exasperating, and I may be one of them, but I've watched enough baseball to know how teams behave.

That gives us six SP in Pawtucket: Rodriguez, Elias, Kendrick, Owens, Velazquez and Johnson. All of those guys should be viable for at least a spot start, which is really pretty impressive depth-wise.

And a Pawtucket bullpen:

Noe Ramirez RH 1 option
Brandon Workman RH 2 options
Williams Jerez LH 2 options
Robby Scott LH 3 options
Kyle Martin RH 3 options
Luis Ysla LH 3 options
 

Sprowl

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Split from the 2/26 game thread...

***

The Red Sox bullpen without Uehara and Tazawa won't be quite the same, but it might be better. Get well quick, Carson Smith.
 

grimshaw

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I would also hate that, even if Abad's better than he's shown us, but it doesn't look like they'll need to.

That leaves Carson Smith on the DL, and Eduardo Rodriguez, as the SP with (2) options remaining, rebuilding his strength and watching his innings count in managed outings in AAA. Some people might find that exasperating, and I may be one of them, but I've watched enough baseball to know how teams behave.
I just don't see it. He's healthy and he's starting on Thursday. IF they were futzing around with building him back up slowly, he'd probably still be long tossing. The latter point really doesn't have anything to do with how the Red Sox will do things. I could see Theo/Cherington style hoarding of resources if they were still here, but DD strikes me as more of the type of guy who encourages the best 25 guys making the team. If there were recent evidence of him stashing a guy as effective as Rodriguez , then I could be swayed the other way, but I don't recall it happening yet.

I think it's more likely one of those fringey bullpen guys gets moved, and/or one of the back end starters starts in the pen.
If Abad or Hembree craps the bed in spring training, I just don't see them as someone they make room for. Robbie Scott seemed to do ok in his trial, and maybe Walden shows enough to replace Hembree as depth. Those are the AAA guys who replace those guys fungibility
 
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nvalvo

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(Thanks for main-boarding this, Sprowl. Good call.)

Grimshaw makes some good points; my sense of probability may be colored by watching Theo/Cherington FOs for more than a decade. Dombrowski might keep six SP on the 25 man roster, with one as a swing man in the pen.

In that case, one of Hembree or Abad gets traded. We'll see.

I think Farrell likes Hembree for his ability to throw longish stints. He had 19 outings of more than three outs, 8 of which were over 2, and four of which were over three. That seems useful. I think Abad's on the bottom of the depth chart, just because we don't really need a LOOGY given Thornburg and Ross.
 

phenweigh

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I think Farrell likes Hembree for his ability to throw longish stints. He had 19 outings of more than three outs, 8 of which were over 2, and four of which were over three. That seems useful. I think Abad's on the bottom of the depth chart, just because we don't really need a LOOGY given Thornburg and Ross.
Agree that being able to throw longish stints is useful, but even without Heath it seems to be that Sox will have that ability with multiple guys already.

Matt Barnes had 18 outing greater than 3 outs last season.
Joe Kelly, as a converted starter will have that ability.
Whoever of the six starters that is left out of the rotation will have that ability.
Robbie Ross had 15 outing greater than 3 outs last season.
 

Idabomb333

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In that case, one of Hembree or Abad gets traded.
Just to nitpick here, that's betting all 13 of the potential MLB pitchers named are healthy through Spring training. How often does that happen?

Of course trading those guys might be a good plan even with an injury to someone, but I don't accept your premise.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I've been vocal in saying I don't think this bullpen is a championship bullpen. Having said that, relievers typically become available during the season so it's not the worst problem to have.

I could see a scenario emerge where Kelly and/or Barnes wind up being statistically the best arms in the pen. There's clearly potential here, but I'm far from convinced this won't be a pain point this season.
 

grimshaw

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I've been vocal in saying I don't think this bullpen is a championship bullpen. Having said that, relievers typically become available during the season so it's not the worst problem to have.

I could see a scenario emerge where Kelly and/or Barnes wind up being statistically the best arms in the pen. There's clearly potential here, but I'm far from convinced this won't be a pain point this season.
If you think Kelly and Barnes - probably 4th and 5th on the depth chart when Smith returns could possibly end up being statistically the best which is curious - where you think they could improve? They upgraded from Taz to Thornburg. They have the new and improved Joe Kelly.

I could maybe buy one or both of Kelly regressing and Carson Smith not being able to stay on the mound which is a definite possibility but then you have Wright (not pictured above) and Ross who has been solid. And worst case scenario, you still have Hembree and Robbie Scott and possibly even Workman.

Even with a few down years - you have to take other team injuries into account as well, and I'm not sure many can match the Sox' depth.

Can you name 5 bullpens projected as better in the AL alone?
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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I've been vocal in saying I don't think this bullpen is a championship bullpen.
What is a championship bullpen, exactly, and how often does a championship team actually have one? Here's how the last 10 champions ranked in reliever FIP– among the 30 MLB teams:

2016 Cubs: 94, 17th
2015 Royals: 89, 5th
2014 Giants: 98, 18th
2013 Red Sox: 93, 14th
2012 Giants: 99, 22nd
2011 Cardinals: 103, 25th
2010 Giants: 89, 4th
2009 Yankees: 94, 11th
2008 Phillies: 87, 3rd
2007 Red Sox: 93, 10th

The mean FIP– for that group is 93.9. The MLB average for relievers over that period is 96.5. The median MLB rank for champions' bullpens is 12.5. In short, a typical WS winner's bullpen for the past ten years has been a little better than average.

So I think the idea of a "championship bullpen" is a bit of a mythical beast--as is the idea of a championship rotation, or lineup, or defense. There are only championship teams, and lots of different ways to build them.
 

shaggydog2000

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If you think Kelly and Barnes - probably 4th and 5th on the depth chart when Smith returns could possibly end up being statistically the best which is curious - where you think they could improve? They upgraded from Taz to Thornburg. They have the new and improved Joe Kelly.

I could maybe buy one or both of Kelly regressing and Carson Smith not being able to stay on the mound which is a definite possibility but then you have Wright (not pictured above) and Ross who has been solid. And worst case scenario, you still have Hembree and Robbie Scott and possibly even Workman.

Even with a few down years - you have to take other team injuries into account as well, and I'm not sure many can match the Sox' depth.

Last year we were salivating

Can you name 5 bullpens projected as better in the AL alone?
Fangraphs have them 12th in the MLB in WAR behind the Yankees, Indians, Mariners, and Orioles for AL teams. But they predict them 6th in both ERA and FIP, both times behind the Indians and Mariners for AL teams. I was surprised by the Mariners being in there, just because you never hear anything at all about the Mariners any more, but the other teams all make sense, mostly based off the value of their closers, which is where the big WAR numbers come from.
 

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Bullpens are so variable over the course of a season. I don't think season-long measurements like WAR or even FIP tell you much. The Sox in 2013 shuffled guys around quite a bit, especially in the 9th inning, until the Koji Revelation settled everything down. Heading into the playoffs, none of us were particularly worried about that bullpen. The Cubs' pen last year changed significantly when they doled out the prospects to get Chapman. Etc.

Our pen this year is set up well for success, with quality and depth and Smith as a planned mid-season reinforcement. If it ends up short, but the rest of the team is chugging along mid-year, DD will find help. (After all, that's why we passed on Encarnacion, right?!)
 

grimshaw

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Fangraphs have them 12th in the MLB in WAR behind the Yankees, Indians, Mariners, and Orioles for AL teams. But they predict them 6th in both ERA and FIP, both times behind the Indians and Mariners for AL teams. I was surprised by the Mariners being in there, just because you never hear anything at all about the Mariners any more, but the other teams all make sense, mostly based off the value of their closers, which is where the big WAR numbers come from.
The two which I think have distinct advantages are the Indians and Yankees - but the lower WAR is due to not having Carson Smith for much of the year and also doesn't factor in Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz spending much if any time there. Wright is projected for 96 innings all as a starter, and Pomeranz is only projected as 10 relief innings. I don't think either of those scenarios are likely.

A hidden benefit will also be how many innings they will get from their starters. I would think that could help preserve effectiveness since it will be less of a burden on the top guys.

Personnel wise,I think they are - when healthy better than the non-Yankee Indian teams but usage is obviously hard to quantify. One of two all star starters will be in the pen along with Kimbrel and two lights out set up guys come June - knock on wood.

Regardless - if they're 5th or 6th at worst - it certainly isn't an area of weakness.
 
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shaggydog2000

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The two which I think have distinct advantages are the Indians and Yankees - but the lower WAR is due to not having Carson Smith for much of the year and also doesn't factor in Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz spending much if any time there. Wright is projected for 96 innings all as a starter, and Pomeranz is only projected as 10 relief innings. I don't think either of those scenarios are likely.

A hidden benefit will also be how many innings they will get from their starters. I would think that could help preserve effectiveness since it will be less of a burden on the top guys.

Personnel wise,I think they are - when healthy better than the non-Yankee Indian teams but usage is obviously hard to quantify. One of two all star starters will be in the pen along with Kimbrel and two lights out set up guys come June - knock on wood.

Regardless - if they're 5th or 6th at worst - it certainly isn't an area of weakness.
The WAR numbers are almost all dependent on the closer and one or two setup guys. The rest are pretty much noise. In fact the WAR itself is pretty low compared to a single top starting pitcher or position player. I don't expect one of the starters used in middle relief to have a significant impact on the WAR. That's why I included the ERA and FIP numbers, WAR just isn't a great way to look at relievers under most circumstances. These are also projections, and of course there is high variance in the actual outcomes, just accounting for sample size when you look at relievers. I would bound them to be anywhere from average to a top 2 bullpen in the AL. But I would expect them to be a good top 5 bullpen. It would take a lot for them to completely fall apart and be below average.
 

nvalvo

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Bullpens are so variable over the course of a season. I don't think season-long measurements like WAR or even FIP tell you much. The Sox in 2013 shuffled guys around quite a bit, especially in the 9th inning, until the Koji Revelation settled everything down. Heading into the playoffs, none of us were particularly worried about that bullpen. The Cubs' pen last year changed significantly when they doled out the prospects to get Chapman. Etc.

Our pen this year is set up well for success, with quality and depth and Smith as a planned mid-season reinforcement. If it ends up short, but the rest of the team is chugging along mid-year, DD will find help.
There are also tons of rebuilding teams stockpiling pen arms with an eye to the in-season trade market. I'm thinking of the Padres, who look like a 100 loss team with several 10+ K/9 RP. So there should be availability.

The two which I think have distinct advantages are the Indians and Yankees - but the lower WAR is due to not having Carson Smith for much of the year and also doesn't factor in Steven Wright or Drew Pomeranz spending much if any time there. Wright is projected for 96 innings all as a starter, and Pomeranz is only projected as 10 relief innings. I don't think either of those scenarios are likely.
You seem very confident that Rodriguez will be in the rotation, but everything I'm seeing in the Spring Training coverage suggests you may be surprised, at least to start. E.g. Neverett and Bradford on WEEI described Wright and Pomeranz as having "the inside track" on the 4/5 spots during the broadcast yesterday.
 

grimshaw

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You seem very confident that Rodriguez will be in the rotation, but everything I'm seeing in the Spring Training coverage suggests you may be surprised, at least to start. E.g. Neverett and Bradford on WEEI described Wright and Pomeranz as having "the inside track" on the 4/5 spots during the broadcast yesterday.
Hadn't heard that part. I don't have a horse in the 4th/5th starter race, but that's another nice weapon to have if he starts in the pen.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Hadn't heard that part. I don't have a horse in the 4th/5th starter race, but that's another nice weapon to have if he starts in the pen.
As the guy with options, there's little chance they stick Edro in the pen. If Wright and Pom look healthy, and either they outpitch Rodriguez or the team decides it doesn't want to lose other BP arms, he'll go to AAA and keep starting. I'd rather he start in the rotation with one of Wright/Pom going to the pen, but we'll have to see how it plays out. There's a decent chance not all 3 will be ready to go when the season starts...
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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If you think Kelly and Barnes - probably 4th and 5th on the depth chart when Smith returns could possibly end up being statistically the best which is curious - where you think they could improve? They upgraded from Taz to Thornburg. They have the new and improved Joe Kelly.

I could maybe buy one or both of Kelly regressing and Carson Smith not being able to stay on the mound which is a definite possibility but then you have Wright (not pictured above) and Ross who has been solid. And worst case scenario, you still have Hembree and Robbie Scott and possibly even Workman.

Even with a few down years - you have to take other team injuries into account as well, and I'm not sure many can match the Sox' depth.

Can you name 5 bullpens projected as better in the AL alone?
The line, "when Smith returns" sticks out here. When pitchers come back from injuries they are NEVER sure things. The comment on Kelly and/or Barnes emerging very well may be wishful thinking on my part but it's rooted in some success towards the end of the year, both guys were better down the stretch (Small sample size caveat noted).

To the question about 5 bullpens in the AL that are better, I can't come up with 5 that are better, or 5 that will definitively be worse. As others said below, bullpens by their nature are largely difficult to predict. Failed starters emerge as great relievers and typically that's unpredictable. Having said that, my concern with this team is still the bullpen. The depth elsewhere seems more substantial than in the pen.
 

dynomite

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To the question about 5 bullpens in the AL that are better, I can't come up with 5 that are better, or 5 that will definitively be worse. As others said below, bullpens by their nature are largely difficult to predict. Failed starters emerge as great relievers and typically that's unpredictable. Having said that, my concern with this team is still the bullpen. The depth elsewhere seems more substantial than in the pen.
I don't really get this concern.

The 2016 Sox had the 5th best bullpen ERA in the AL, despite uneven seasons from Barnes and Taz (both had ERAs over 4.00), injuries to Kimbrel, Koji, and Carson Smith, and an additional ~30 terrible innings from folks like Ramirez and Abad.

Barring a large run of injuries this season, I find it hard to imagine the 2017 bullpen being much worse -- and I think there's a solid chance it could be better.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I'm a believer that the more reliably the starters go deep into games, the better a bullpen's potential to live up to its full potential. I was looking through Fangraphs articles to try to substantiate what is really a gut feeling of how the stats 'should be' but I didn't find anything that IMO adequately tested the proposition (i.e. something that compared a bullpen's expected performance before a season to its actual performance regressed by overall usage).

What does stand out, however, is the fact that the Sox have 4 starters among the 11 in MLB who averaged 6.5 IP/start last year. Sale posted his 5th straight such season and his 7.08 IP/GS was 0.02 the MLB leader (Kershaw), whilst Porcello was 4th in MLB at 6.76 IP/GS (behind Cueto). Price was 9th at 6.57 IP/GS which the pessimists would say is his lowest mark in 7 years but the optimists would point out was his 7th straight season above the 6.50 threshold. There were some nobodies (guys named Kluber, Scherzer, Verlander and Bumgarner) between Porcello and Price in the rankings. And rounding out the MLB Top Ten was Steven Wright with 6.53 IP/GS in his 24 starts.

Sale, Wright and Porcello were 1st (6), tied-3rd (4) and tied-5th (3) respectively in complete games as well (Cueto was 2nd and Bumgarner tied 3rd, with Kershaw, Kluber and Nova tied with Porcello for 5th). Boston + Sale had 15 complete games last year which was 3x as many as any other club save SF (10) had all year. In fact, only one other club (2014 Indians) had double-digit CGs (11) in the past 5 seasons (though 5 clubs led by Phi with 18 reached double-digits in 2011).

I don't have the resources to see how much bullpen performance improves over an expected baseline, but I did a quick set of regressions to see how a team's staters IP/GS relates to its bullpen performance. Looking at the team-level data for the past 10 years (i.e. 300 teams in all) there is a significant correlation between IP/GS and at least the nominal measures of performance (I was using mlb.com's stats and so did not have advance metrics available).

For each extra IP averaged by a club's starters (which ranged from a high of 6.57 IP/GS for the 2011 Phillies to a low of 4.72 IP/GS for the 2012 Rockies) the clubs' bullpen posted .013 lower OB%a (-3.28 t-stat), .030 lower SLG (-4.89 t-stat), 0.516 lower ERA (-4.14 t-stat) and 0.081 lower WHIP (-3.57 t-stat). What's interesting though is that neither K/9IP nor BB/9IP were statistically significant (though K/9IP, which averaged an increase of 0.34, was close with a t-stat of 1.85). Could this be because K-rate and BB-rate are more closely related to the reliever's innate ability and the other performance stats are improved by more because the pen is better rested? Not sure I can make that claim but it does point to an area of further study.

The takeaway for the Sox? If Price comes back healthy and stems his decline in IP, if Wright provides solid innings-eating through most of the season, if Porcello proves last year wasn't an aberration and continues to be Mr Reliable all year long again and if Sale is Sale and Pomeranz and/or ERod do their part, this rotation is in position to surpass the 6.5 IP/GS threshold not just for individuals but for the rotation as a whole. Only the 2011 Phillies (6.57) and 2011 Rays(!) (6.53) have done this in the past 10 years and only they, the 2010 and 2012 Phillies and the 2011 Dodgers have been over 6 1/3. The dividend that would result is a bullpen that remains basically rested throughout the season and would allow plenty of options for usage patterns that could only help.

The takeaway is that this rotation has the potential to give the Sox' Bullpen a significant boost if they can match
 

OurF'ingCity

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The takeaway for the Sox? If Price comes back healthy and stems his decline in IP, if Wright provides solid innings-eating through most of the season, if Porcello proves last year wasn't an aberration and continues to be Mr Reliable all year long again and if Sale is Sale and Pomeranz and/or ERod do their part, this rotation is in position to surpass the 6.5 IP/GS threshold not just for individuals but for the rotation as a whole. Only the 2011 Phillies (6.57) and 2011 Rays(!) (6.53) have done this in the past 10 years and only they, the 2010 and 2012 Phillies and the 2011 Dodgers have been over 6 1/3. The dividend that would result is a bullpen that remains basically rested throughout the season and would allow plenty of options for usage patterns that could only help.
Whole lotta ifs in that paragraph - you're basically saying that if every starter performs at their most optimistic projection and don't get hurt that will help the bullpen a lot. I think that's indisputably true, but it seems to me one of the key facets of a good bullpen is the ability to take some of the slack off if the starters can't go deep in a game, are dealing with injuries, etc.

That said, I agree with dynomite and others that there doesn't seem to be any clear reason why this year's bullpen should be any worse than last year's barring injuries.
 

Rasputin

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Whole lotta ifs in that paragraph - you're basically saying that if every starter performs at their most optimistic projection and don't get hurt that will help the bullpen a lot. I think that's indisputably true, but it seems to me one of the key facets of a good bullpen is the ability to take some of the slack off if the starters can't go deep in a game, are dealing with injuries, etc.

That said, I agree with dynomite and others that there doesn't seem to be any clear reason why this year's bullpen should be any worse than last year's barring injuries.
Those aren't the most optimistic projections for those guys. They're in the top half, sure, but it's not like Price pitching a little better than he did last year is remarkably optimistic, nor is it remarkably optimistic for Porcello to pitch like he did last year or for Eduardo Rodriguez to establish himself as a pretty good full-time starter,

All the things mentioned are perfectly reasonable projections that don't require absurd optimism. It's pretty likely that at least one of them will happen. It's less likely that they'll all happen, of course, but that's just math.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Agreed - my 'ifs' were all caveats against misfortune happening rather than hopes and dreams. I'm basically saying that if Price and Sale don't get hurt and if Wright and Porcello were for real. Wright may or may not have the success he had last year before he got hurt but even if he regresses a little, he should still be an innings-eater- which is what this post was about.

Porcello also topped 6.5 IP/GS in 2014 so it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to think he could do it for the 3rd time in 4 years this season.
 

phenweigh

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If the Tyler Thornburg reports are true that he'll start the season on the DL, the opening day bullpen looks like it will be:

Fernando Abad
Matt Barnes
Heath Hembree
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Robbie Ross Jr.
Robby Scott

But three lefties seems unlikely to me. Noe Ramirez instead of Scott?
 

SouthernBoSox

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If the Tyler Thornburg reports are true that he'll start the season on the DL, the opening day bullpen looks like it will be:

Fernando Abad
Matt Barnes
Heath Hembree
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Robbie Ross Jr.
Robby Scott

But three lefties seems unlikely to me. Noe Ramirez instead of Scott?
Man, that bullpen has potential to be absolutely horrible.
 

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I wish we still had Ziegler and Koji and had not let them go. I understand the philosophy of only wanting fastballers in the bullpen but disagree with it. In my completely unscientific viewpoint, it is better to have a few RP with a variety of looks than three or four relievers with the same basic arsenal. In addition, as we have seen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornberg, fastballers tend to be pretty hit or miss injury wise. Anyway what's done is done as the saying goes. Maybe we will be surprised and the bullpen will actually be pretty good.
 

Maximus

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Dombro really knows how to pick relievers.

Per Pete Abe:

Thornburg has an impingement in his shoulder. No throwing for 10 days. Those are not typically quick healing injuries. Month at least.
 

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8th inning Kelly should be interesting and not at all terrifying
I would think it wouldn't take much from Kelly to give Barnes a shot at the 8th.

This certainly isn't the bullpen we wanted, but it's not necessarily going to be terrible. If the starters can go 6-7 with some consistency, we'll be seeing a lot of Barnes/Kelly/Hembree/Ross leading in to Kimbrel. If the Barnes/Kelly/Hembree/Ross combo only needs to go two innings or less most nights, and the dregs only show up once or twice a week, we'll be okay.

Maybe.
 

DeadlySplitter

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need JoKe to actually come through at least in April. maybe good Barnes can also show up in the 7th.

Scott gives a different look and is effective enough, but hopefully Abad goes back to what he was in MIN last year (not holding my breath)

Ross is as volatile as they come.
 

Sprowl

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Ross is as volatile as they come.
Is he? Ross looks to me like the leading candidate for the setup role: he can handle RHB tolerably well (2016 xFIP better than LHB), he's usually around the strike zone, he pitches well on the road, at 27 he's in his prime, and he doesn't blow up very often. He's got good velocity for a lefty and three decent pitches in the fastball, slider and curve.

I'd expect him to be quite reliable and less volatile than most other relievers in 2017.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Is he? Ross looks to me like the leading candidate for the setup role: he can handle RHB tolerably well (2016 xFIP better than LHB), he's usually around the strike zone, he pitches well on the road, at 27 he's in his prime, and he doesn't blow up very often. He's got good velocity for a lefty and three decent pitches in the fastball, slider and curve.

I'd expect him to be quite reliable and less volatile than most other relievers in 2017.
Yep. Frankly, I kinda hope Barnes and Ross are the 8th inning set-up guys ahead of Kelly, until Thornburg and Smith are able to return.

JoKe may have better stuff, but....you know. Insert punchline here about Joe Kelly's promising stuff.
 

LogansDad

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Jared Hughes got released by the Pirates this morning... really rough spring, but has been a pretty consistent reliever for a few years.... might be worth a look.
 

grimshaw

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The pen is depleted, but it isn't all that different than what they had at times during the 2nd half last year. Ziegler would be great, but they also had Taz on the roster.

I'm going to hope for some raw, offense suppressing weather in April because it is a rough schedule. 21 of 25 games are vs. playoff contenders (Pitts, Det, Jays, O's, Yanks, Cubs). It's a good month to have some off days/potential rain outs.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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In addition, as we have seen with Carson Smith and Tyler Thornberg, fastballers tend to be pretty hit or miss injury wise.
Is this true or is this just the result of trading for guys who are injury risks? I know it makes sense logically that the harder you throw the more likely you are to get injured. I just wonder if they've actually proven this.

JoKe may have better stuff, but....you know. Insert punchline here about Joe Kelly's promising stuff.
Is Barnes really all that different than Joe Kelly? Neither one has lived up to their potential but both showed flashes last year in the bullpen. Also re Robbie Ross, he was very consistent last year. He had the awful 0.1ip 6er performance on 7/2, but outside of that he pitched 55.0 innings to a 2.29 era. Ross's problem is he is prone to give up a big inning that skews his stats and opinions of his performance.

This bullpen has all the potential in the world but all the question marks in the world too. If 2 of those question marks pan out, the Sox will be fine.

I also haven't been paying too close attention to ST this year but how has Brandon Workman looked? His stat line looks decent. And I think the guy on the farm who can make the biggest (not most likely) impact on the bullpen this year is Jake Cosart. The chances he does so are incredibly slim but the stuff is there. Although Williams Jerez is intruging too and has the benefit of being left handed and the fact he's only been pitching for 3 seasons and is already in Pawtucket. Part of that is because they had to be aggressive with him, but part of it is because he also forced their hands. Henry Owens in the bullpen might be fascinating too but it doesn't appear they are ready to move on from Henry Owens SP, which I don't entirely disagree with.

I'm guessing Chandler Sheppard also starts the year in AAA bullpen too since that's where he ended 2016 and did nothing to deserve a demotion. Ben Taylor should also be in Pawtucket not long after the season begins, if not the start if it weren't for the apparent logjam. Both have average stuff and don't really project to be anymore than 6-7th inning guys but they've had great results to do date. Taylor projects slightly better.

I guess that will all sort it self out really quickly given how volatile MR is, especially minor league MR.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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Well. It's game number 1.

I will say this. I have no idea why Ross isn't ahead of Barnes. Barnes has shown a complete inability to throw quality strikes with any consistency what so ever. I just don't see it with him.
 

luckysox

Indiana Jones
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Apr 21, 2009
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So indications from the Globe today are that Kelly and Ross have both slid backward on the depth chart. I suppose that's from Farrell et al seeing whatever it was they saw in the spring that gave them immediate pause on using the two of them before Barnes or Hembree in a tight spot. Kelly really seems to have dropped like a stone in a short period, as just a week or so ago he was being discussed as the 8th inning guy who needed to step up. Wonder if he's not feeling quite right, or if he's just having trouble throwing strikes so much that they don't feel he's reliable. But it's weird.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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At least with Hembree you have confidence he's going to be around the strike zone and can really get after RHB. That can't be said for Barnes, who on any given pitch could miss by 3 feet. Same deal with Kelly. All of these statement though lead to the same conclusion. This is going to be stressful as hell, because these guys make a lot of mistakes.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
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Jun 27, 2006
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Farrell in the past has had difficulty making optimal use of his OOGYs, but perhaps he has turned over a new leaf. I like the late-inning use of Scott and Hembree as an L-R combination, even in the 8th inning, rather than hoping that Kelly and Barnes can hit their spots in high-leverage situations. Unfortunately, the L-R combination will only work effectively when the opposing team's batters are too important to be lifted for a pinch-hitter. I suspect we'll see lots of different looks in the 8th inning until one of the non-Kimbrel relievers takes a big step forward.
 

phenweigh

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Aug 8, 2005
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I only saw Hembree on the radio ... the Sox announcers thought he was getting squeezed ... and he still didn't issue a walk. Also, Merloni was saying that Hembree was showing a new and more effective approach to left-handed hitters, which has been his Achilles heal. Heath is at the top of my list as the guy who will step up while we wait for Thornburg/Smith.