I think there will be fewer head coaching vacancies than usual.
The Giants job is already open, John Fox is a dead man walking in Chicago, and I think this is the year the Bengals and Colts finally move on from Lewis and Pagano, respectively.
Beyond those four, however, I think all the incumbents are more likely than not to stick around. I think the Broncos, Bucs, and Jets will give their coaches one more year to show results, I don’t think Arians will choose to go out on such a sour note. And I certainly don’t think Gruden or (especially) Reid is in any danger. There have been rumors that Garrett and BOB might be on the hot seat also, but I think that’s crazy talk.
I’m sure I’ll be wrong about one of those incumbents, or maybe even two — but that still leaves us with five openings, or six at the very most.
I’ll be a contrarian and say the Giants’ job is the worst of the likely openings. Eli is over the hill, and you’re stuck with him for another year. The Browns will draft #1 and finally address their QB situation, and I don’t think there’s a second blue-chip QB in this year’s class besides Darnold. You’re probably stuck with OBJ long term, and I don’t think he’ll be worth the money he gets. And between the “Elvis in Vegas” stage of Coughlin’s career and the tire fire that was McAdoo’s tenure, the culture is broken. Yet, you don’t have the tempered expectations that normally come with a rebuild — no way the next coach gets 4 years to produce a 10-win season.
I’d take Cindy, Indy, or (especially) Chicago over that situation. I think I’d take any of the maybes too, with the possible exception of Denver — Elway seems like a shitty boss, and expectations there are not at all realistic.