2017-18 NBA Regular Season Game/Observation Thread

Sam Ray Not

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Is this supposed to confirm my only point in that it will be difficult for the Nuggets to surpass the Spurs?
Haha, neither confirm nor deny. I agree that it'll be hard for them, and never suggested otherwise. I was just adding another useful piece of data (the Nuggets' significantly weaker opponents) to the topic. Hence, "on the other hand."

Using the Spurs road success last season WITH Kawhi to attempt to justify that their road struggles this season without him is a terrible position to get behind imo
As is using an anomalously high home/road split from samples of ~30 games as a baseline for a prediction. Obviously I wasn't suggesting that their nearly even split from last season is totally predictive either — just threw that out as another anecdote supporting the larger fact that a generic .500 home team in the NBA tends will tend to win on the order of 55% of games.

Missing Kawhi obviously lowers their overall level, but logically, why would it significantly alter their home-road split? As with most splits, for prediction purposes you're better off using a more generic split based on giant samples amassed by many teams over many seasons than assuming you're picking up more signal than noise from incomplete samples as small as 30 games.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Haha, neither confirm nor deny. I agree that'll be hard for them, and never suggested otherwise. I was just adding another useful piece of data (the Nuggets' significantly weaker opponents) to the topic. Hence, "on the other hand."
I know it was meant to be lighthearted. I was chuckling with you.


Missing Kawhi obviously lowers their overall level, but logically, why would it significantly alter their home-road split? As with most splits, for prediction purposes you're better off using a more generic split based on giant samples amassed by many teams over many seasons than assuming you're picking up more signal than noise from incomplete samples as small as 30 games.
I've always been a big believer in role players having greater success at home than on the road which has been the case for many of the Spurs role players. I recall seeing a study on this years ago although I don't recall who presented it. The Spurs precipitous drop on the road this year isn't surprising to me for this reason.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Do people view Oladipo as a top 20 player in the league? I've been expecting him to regress a little and it's just not happening. He's also doing it on a team that is competing for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and potentially the 3 seed.

Myles Turner turns 22 later this month too.

On another note, has anyone seen Jabari Parker play and did he look fully recovered? He's been putting up some decent numbers. I hope he stays healthy. It sucks he's missed so much time because Jabari has shown a lot of improvement year over year, unlike Wiggins. I could see Hayward playing a similar role for the Celtics if he happens to come back this season.
 

ElUno20

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The Pistons have been free falling. Should have traded Blake sooner, the pick might have been worth something
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Wow, the race for the bottom is really interesting as 7 teams are within 2 games. You have to admire MEM for ripping off a 14 game winning, errr losing, streak.
 

InstaFace

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Blazers up 3 on the Lakers, Laker inbounding with 7.7 seconds to go. On a screen, a pretty blatant foul by Portland gives LA one shot from the line. IT7 lines up, takes it... and almost airballs it. Misses badly. Back to the inbounds, Ball ignores his first few open options, ends up hucking it cross-count to Lopez, who dumps off to IT behind the 3-point line. IT takes one dribble, pulls up, and before he can get it to his shoulders, it's stripped from his hands cleanly by Shabazz Napier. Blazers recover, ballgame.

If it were anyone but Isaiah Thomas, I'd be laughing my ass off, even though a Laker loss, if anything, hurts the Celtics right now. But that was just Yakety Sax level there.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Lillard was absurd in the fourth quarter. 14 straight points. Several threes in a row. Completely unguardable.
 

jon abbey

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Spurs starters only score 33 between them and they barely beat the current worst team in the league, Memphis, by 2. Any win is a struggle for them right now, they really could miss the playoffs.
 

Imbricus

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Isaiah was 1-9 on 3 pt. shots last night and a -17 on +/-, worst for any Laker. No Brinks truck backing into his driveway this summer.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Lillard was absurd in the fourth quarter. 14 straight points. Several threes in a row. Completely unguardable.

I think that was the best individual shooting performance I have seen in a game since Thompson singlehandedly beating OKC in game 6 of the 16 WCF. Stakes are very different, of course, but Dame was absolutely incredible last night.

That game also featured perhaps the worst IT performance we have ever seen, punctuated by the rare, "miss a clutch free throw / immediately turn over the most important possession of the game" daily double.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I think that was the best individual shooting performance I have seen in a game since Thompson singlehandedly beating OKC in Game 6
Of course, Thompson also once dropped 37 points in 9:44.

13-13 fg, 9-9 3fg, 2-2 ft. (133.2% true shooting, lolz).

Not as momentous as the Game 6 performance at OKC, obviously. It's fun to ponder how different recent NBA history might be had OKC closed out that series in 6. They led by 7 points at home with 5:33 left, till Klay (and Steph) went off to save the season.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Davis hurt after banging with DeAndre Jordan... And Ainge felt a great disturbance in the force...

Note he is reportedly coming back in for the second half of the game...
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Oh, and Lillard is 8-11 from deep tonight and has 37 points with just under 10 to go in the fourth. The Blazers, who have won seven straight, are up by 15 over the Knickerbockers so he may not get much more run tonight...
 

luckiestman

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Oh, and Lillard is 8-11 from deep tonight and has 37 points with just under 10 to go in the fourth. The Blazers, who have won seven straight, are up by 15 over the Knickerbockers so he may not get much more run tonight...

He has been my favorite non Celtic for years now. YEARS!!! I love that little BAMF.
 

Kliq

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Dames a beast. His game is like half-Steph Curry, half-Westbrook. He’s also just a pure Alpha on the basketball court. The undisputed leader and one of the five or so best guys in the NBA at just taking over a game and killing your team.

I’m glad Portland hasn’t broken up CJ and Dame. There was talk about them needing to break up them up and try to find a better balance but I don’t think you should break up a backcourt where they could combine for 60+ on any given night.
 

ElUno20

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This clipper team is more effective when they're down big. Then they can scrap the blueprint and just play some pickup ball
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Live by the Lou, die by the Lou. Some really dumb drives late by him
The TNT crew is right though - The guy has singlehandedly been the constant that has kept the Clips in the hunt.

Of course, I have his Fathead on my wall (in the figurative sense) so I am biased.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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From Mason Ginsberg:

Anthony Davis tonight: 41 points 13 rebounds 4 made threes 3 blocks 3 steals 3 free throw attempts 2 assists 1 bruised rib 0 excuses
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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With their 17th straight win tonight against the Bucks in Milwaukee, Houston has a decent shot at the NBA consecutive win streak but they would pretty much have to run the table. Their biggest test comes on Friday in Toronto. If they can get past that, they have a bunch of winnable games.

The Spurs are always a consideration but given their play of late, the Rockets should get past them at home on Monday (though its the second end of a B2B - however they are playing in Dallas on Sunday which isn't so bad for Houston travel-wise).

The next tough stretch is from Saturday, 3/17 through Tuesday 3/20 when they play on the road at New Orleans, then the next day play the T-Wolves at home on that Sunday, then go to Portland that Tuesday. If they can somehow win out on that trip, its pretty smooth sailing the rest of the way, excepting an April 1st game in San Antonio.

I suspect that Houston will lose somewhere in there, possibly against a much lesser team. Furthermore, D'Antoni may take a lesson from the Warriors a few seasons ago and forgo a record in favor of being fresh for the playoffs. That said, they are deep enough to rest their big dogs and still win against most NBA teams. Its certainly worth watching.
 

ElUno20

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One you smart people here explain the end of the Lakers Magic to me. How is that not just complete BS?

Shouldn't every team up at home just run the clock early now?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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One you smart people here explain the end of the Lakers Magic to me. How is that not just complete BS?

Shouldn't every team up at home just run the clock early now?
When I first read your question, I thought you were asking about Magic.

The rule used by the refs is Rule No. 13, Section II(e)(i)-(iii), which says:

NOTE: If time is added to the game clock:
i - The team with possession of the ball when the horn or whistle sounds will retain possession on the sideline at the nearest spot.
ii. If the ball is released on an unsuccessful field goal attempt or is loose when the horn or whistle sounds, the ball will be jumped at center circle between any two opponents in the game.
iii. If the horn or whistle sounds while a successful field goal is in flight, the opposing team will inbound on the baseline as after any successful field goal.
Refs apparently believed that ball was loose and not in anyone's possession so clause (ii) applied.

Not it only works on a lob pass but correct there is no downside for a home team to start the clock early (though I suspect if a team is found telling the timekeeper to do it, it would face heavy penalties).
 

HowBoutDemSox

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When I first read your question, I thought you were asking about Magic.

The rule used by the refs is Rule No. 13, Section II(e)(i)-(iii), which says:

NOTE: If time is added to the game clock:
i - The team with possession of the ball when the horn or whistle sounds will retain possession on the sideline at the nearest spot.
ii. If the ball is released on an unsuccessful field goal attempt or is loose when the horn or whistle sounds, the ball will be jumped at center circle between any two opponents in the game.
iii. If the horn or whistle sounds while a successful field goal is in flight, the opposing team will inbound on the baseline as after any successful field goal.
Refs apparently believed that ball was loose and not in anyone's possession so clause (ii) applied.

Not it only works on a lob pass but correct there is no downside for a home team to start the clock early (though I suspect if a team is found telling the timekeeper to do it, it would face heavy penalties).
At least initially, the NBA’s official response is a slightly different rule, without the component of adding time back on the clock and just focused on a clock erroneously starting with the ball mid-air and neither team in possession:

Q: With .6 seconds left did the clock start before anyone touched the inbounds pass?

A: “Correct. The ball was not touched on the floor, so the clock malfunctioned.”



Q: What did the review following the play determine?

A: “That the ball was in midair when the clock malfunctioned and therefore, the ruling is, because there’s no possession when the clock goes off, the ruling is that there’s a jump ball, center circle.”



Q: Why was a jump ball deemed to be the correct call?

A: “Because that is the rule. The rule is 13E-9-2. And anytime there is either an inadvertent whistle and/or a horn when the ball is in the air, there’s no possession and we go center circle, jump ball.”
http://official.nba.com/transcript-nba-referee-bill-spooner-comments-to-pool-reporter-after-lakers-magic-game/

Seems like a somewhat silly rule, you could at least keep the ball on the side of the court where it was during the “malfunction.”
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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At least initially, the NBA’s official response is a slightly different rule, without the component of adding time back on the clock and just focused on a clock erroneously starting with the ball mid-air and neither team in possession:


http://official.nba.com/transcript-nba-referee-bill-spooner-comments-to-pool-reporter-after-lakers-magic-game/

Seems like a somewhat silly rule, you could at least keep the ball on the side of the court where it was during the “malfunction.”
Thanks for this. It's the same rule but the ref got the citation wrong.

Note the rule focuses on when the horn sounds. So the literal interpretation of the rule makes it a jump ball as the ball was in the air when the horn sounded.

The easy fix - as suggested by the NBA response - is to focus not on the horn but when the actual malfunction occurred. I haven't seen the play but assuming the stories are correct and the clock started early, the malfunction actually occurred when the clock started not when the horn sounded. If the rule was written the way I suggest, ORL would have been in possession when the error occurred and a fair result would have occurred.

I suspect the rule as currently written applies to an inadvertent whistle being blown or horn being sounded.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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At least initially, the NBA’s official response is a slightly different rule, without the component of adding time back on the clock and just focused on a clock erroneously starting with the ball mid-air and neither team in possession:
And just to help people understand this, here's the breakdown of the rule.

  • Rule No. 13 covers instant replay.
  • Section II (which reference was omitted) covers reviewable matters. (Section I covers triggers.)
  • Subsection "e" (not "E" as referenced above) covers issues arise if review is triggered under Section I(a)(5) (which is triggered if a "play concludes (i) with no time remaining on the clock (0:00) at the end of any period or (ii) at a point when the game officials believe that actual time may have expired in any period; and the officials are reasonably certain that the game clock malfunctioned during the play.)
  • clauses (i) to (iii) are quoted above. (Note that the reports use "2" here but it should be "ii".)
Note that clauses (i) to (iii) are implicated because the game clock has run to 0:00 erroneously and the refs had to put time back on the clock.

Note also that the NBA also includes clause (9) in their citation but that is incorrect because (9) refers to "Whether any unsportsmanlike acts or unnecessary contact occurred." If you look at the physical layout of the rule on paper, it's easy to understand why some might think clauses (i) to (iii) are a subset of clause (9) - and in fact that is probably more typical - but in this particular case, clauses (i) to (iii) address an entirely different situation.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Here's a visual for those who didn't see it. I was raised to believe that with every rule there is an exception. I mean if this isn't case for an exception.....

 

Sam Ray Not

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Fortunately, it ended up win-win for everyone, since the Magic are tanking and the Lakers are not (though I guess Philly fans may be miffed).

Before that play, I thought the story of the game was the Magic nearly blowing up their own tank by erasing a nine-point deficit with two minutes left and taking a one-point lead with 0:06 remaining. "Unfortunately" for them, they fouled Brook Lopez with 0:00.6 seconds left, who sank both FTs for the final margin.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I didn't know this but this is the SECOND time it's happened to ORL - they lost to CLE 104-103 after an inadvertent whistle lead to a jump ball at center court.

Edit: with respect to reporters, I find it interesting that not one person I have found has taken the time to look at the actual rule - really, about 30 seconds - and used the correct reference.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Interesting stat of the night that makes those who favor aggression over efficiency stand proud.......at least with this one team.

Minnesota is 18-4 in games with 15 or more Turnovers.

Minnesota is 20-24 in games with less than 15 Turnovers.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Steph Curry just tweaked his right leg going to the rim. He is hobbling. Who knows if it's bad or not but it just goes to show that there are no sure things in the NBA.
 

GreenMonster49

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The easy fix - as suggested by the NBA response - is to focus not on the horn but when the actual malfunction occurred. I haven't seen the play but assuming the stories are correct and the clock started early, the malfunction actually occurred when the clock started not when the horn sounded. If the rule was written the way I suggest, ORL would have been in possession when the error occurred and a fair result would have occurred.

I suspect the rule as currently written applies to an inadvertent whistle being blown or horn being sounded.
The Last Two Minutes Report says that the ball should have gone back to Orlando with 0.6 seconds left:

On the inbound pass, referees were reasonably certain that there was a clock malfunction and triggered an Instant Replay under Rule 13.1.a.5. After review, it is confirmed that the game clock was inadvertently started by the referee crew and that time expired before the ball was touched. The clock is correctly reset to 0:00.6. However, since the pass was still in the air when the clock expired, the ball was still in ORL’s possession and thus ORL should have retained possession on the sideline at the nearest spot. Had the ball been touched by LAL prior to the expiration of the clock, it would have been considered a loose ball and the jump ball ruling would have been correct.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Kevin Durant is pretty decent at basketball. 15 points during the fourth and led the Warriors in a late comeback over the Spurs. 37 points overall on 14-26 shooting as well as 11 boards and four blocks.
 

johnmd20

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Curry with another ankle injury. This has to be a matter of concern. The Bay Area SOSH must have an entire thread called "Steph's ankle."
I'm sure they do. It's the one thing, the only thing, that has slowed Steph down in his career. His ankles have always been an issue.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I'm sure they do. It's the one thing, the only thing, that has slowed Steph down in his career. His ankles have always been an issue.
Knock on wood, but before this season he hadn't had any real ankle issues in five years (78-78-80-79-79 games played). The only significant injury in that time was the MCL sprain he sustained when he slipped on Motiejunas' sweat in the 2016 playoffs.

But yeah, given the serious ankle issues that derailed his career in 2011-2012, this recent spate is concerning. To me it looks like it was one moderate sprain earlier in the season plus 2-3 minor tweaks subsequently (they're calling last night's injury a "tweak"), so not quite 2011 concern-level — seriously knocking wood! — but I'm sure they're gonna err on the site of caution. He's already been declared out for tonight's game in POR and the next one in MIN; and I'm sure if it came to it the team would have no problem putting him on ice for the remainder of the regular season and conceding the #1 seed. Hopefully it doesn't come to that.

On a happier note, with all the amazing seasons in the NBA this year, Steph has still been arguably the best of them all on a per minute basis: (per 36) 29.5 points on .675 true shooting / 5.7 reb / 6.9 ast / 1.8 stl. And even in his limited minutes: still the #1 player in the NBA in net plus-minus at +475. The Warriors are just don't resemble the Warriors without him, even though KD being KD can win them games.
 

DJnVa

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So the Cavs have to hold off the Wizard, Pacers, and Sixers to hold onto the 3rd spot. Currently they are up by 1,5, 1,5, and 3.

They play Toronto twice, the Wizards, and Sixers in their last 18, but also get the Suns twice, and the Mavs.
 

Montana Fan

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So the Cavs have to hold off the Wizard, Pacers, and Sixers to hold onto the 3rd spot. Currently they are up by 1,5, 1,5, and 3.

They play Toronto twice, the Wizards, and Sixers in their last 18, but also get the Suns twice, and the Mavs.
Raps vs Cavs in the second round would be an extremely good outcome.
 

DJnVa

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If Celtics play well, TOR/CLE games give us the opportunity to sneak past TOR if Cleveland wins or have Cavs slide down to 4th. Basically Celtics gotta take care of business and things could work out well.