I did think "really, BP?"... and probably should have pursued that thought further.I weep for the death of irony.
I did think "really, BP?"... and probably should have pursued that thought further.I weep for the death of irony.
If he hits like it’s 2008, maybe. Otherwise no.Actually, it’s in the team’s best interest if Hanley’s option DOES vest because his play merits that.
This past off-season was a buyer's market to an absurd degree, though. You can't assume that it will be the same next year. The cost per WAR in free agency was something like $10 million in 2016-2017.It’s too early to speculate scenarios, but given our interest and payroll, Hanley’s option isn’t a good one. Neil Walker, a 32-year-old with the same offensive projection as Hanley and far more defensive value, signed for 1-year/$5 million.
If he hits like it’s 2008, maybe. Otherwise no.
We’re gonna need $15-20 million to re-sign/replace Kimbrel and Kelly (plus other bullpen upgrades). And unless we see a breakout year from Brian Johnson, another large sum to do the same with Pomeranz. We’ll also need an additional $20 or so million more than we’re paying now for arbitration figures.
It’s too early to speculate scenarios, but given our interest and payroll, Hanley’s option isn’t a good one. Neil Walker, a 32-year-old with the same offensive projection as Hanley and far more defensive value, signed for 1-year/$5 million.
Except it isn't. You're leaving out the third and most desirable possibility: that he plays well enough to contribute usefully to a championship team, but not to the point where he forces Moreland to a backup rather than time-share role.So, is there anyone here who would rather Hanley be sat instead of reaching his 497 PA? Which is to say, are there any posters who would prefer he not play well this year so the Sox don't have to pay him next year?
Moreland’s bat would kill us full-time and make our lineup LH heavy.Well, yes and no. Another option is that he plays well enough that they can trade him at the deadline for something else and Moreland slides into a full-time role at first. Or maybe, as you say, he plays enough of a platoon role that he doesn't get to 497.
But if he's doing Hanley things (i.e., 2016 Hanley things), that's not something you want or perhaps can afford to trade away or sit. Not to go all Cafardo on this thread, but when this dude is right, there's something infectious about his success.
All other issues aside, how would a 4th LHH make it LH heavy?Moreland’s bat would kill us full-time and make our lineup LH heavy.
The present disparity in baseball would almost ensure a trade can’t happen. Anyone interested in the AL is our competition, and barring injury, no team in the NL needs a first baseman, especially at that cost and commitment.Well, yes and no. Another option is that he plays well enough that they can trade him at the deadline for something else and Moreland slides into a full-time role at first. Or maybe, as you say, he plays enough of a platoon role that he doesn't get to 497.
But if he's doing Hanley things (i.e., 2016 Hanley things), that's not something you want or perhaps can afford to trade away or sit. Not to go all Cafardo on this thread, but when this dude is right, there's something infectious about his success.
Moreland’s bat would kill us full-time and make our lineup LH heavy.
Handedness aside, how would Moreland's 98 wRC+ last year vice Hanley's 93 (or even projected ZiPS/Steamer of 95 vice 108) kill us?All other issues aside, how would a 4th LHH make it LH heavy?
Can you see a team that would trade for him, though? I agree with your take, but every single NL team besides the Rockies has a better player at first base.If they go that route then I think they really are showcasing Hanley for a possible trade, with the plan of bringing up Travis to be Moreland's platoon partner. Which would make perfect sense, and it gives them time to get a sense of whether Travis is ready for that.
Not sure how the guy with a 0.769 OPS and 99 OPS+ last season kills the lineup, but whatever...Moreland’s bat would kill us full-time and make our lineup LH heavy.
Yeah, it's a fair question, although I don't think it really has to be an NL team--just not an AL East team. I think the trade scenario presupposes that somebody gets hurt somewhere.Can you see a team that would trade for him, though? I agree with your take, but every single NL team besides the Rockies has a better player at first base.
RMS Titanic.I don't think I'd go into the season bound and determined to give Hanley 497 1/2 feet of rope, but unless he goes down like the USS Titanic I wouldn't actively try to play games with his playing time, either.
If he's healthy, I think he'll hit--enough so that benching him to prevent the option vesting would entail significant risk. Hanley has had a great attitude thus far, but he (or a teammate) might be upset about shenanigans like that, and reasonably so. It's also not the best look for future free agents considering Boston.
I guess I'm not sure the Red Sox would gain as much as it would seem, when all factors are considered.
Well in those three years half-injured Hanley is good for about 89 - 95 OPS+ (sorry, I am not seeing wRC+), whereas healthy Hanley went for 126, and is at 141 now if you care about minuscule samples. So while 106 is his average, he's not likely going to be that guy; he'll likely either be worse or much, much better. Whereas Moreland looks a lot more like his 99 OPS+ for last year in most seasons, save for one breakout in 2015 in Texas.Hanley's wRC+ for the three years he's been in Boston (including the 2015 annus horribilis) is 106; Moreland's over the same three years is 99. I think that's a pretty accurate reading of the gap between them at this point. Moreland's bat isn't going to kill anybody, but Hanley's is better. Enough better (especially given Moreland's defensive edge) to make Hanley the full-time starter over Moreland, though? I'm skeptical, with or without the vesting clause. If they go that route then I think they really are showcasing Hanley for a possible trade, with the plan of bringing up Travis to be Moreland's platoon partner. Which would make perfect sense, and it gives them time to get a sense of whether Travis is ready for that.
Never, and you should be banned if that's a serious suggestion.When do we start benching JDM in favor of Hanley at DH and Moreland at first? Dudes been a big disappointment so far!
Just to circle back, a page ago in this thread, you had been advocating for Moreland to play over Ramirez based on spring training game stats right? So if I understand your analysis method, when players are hitting well in small sample sizes including 2 very “visible” at bats you like them and when they are not hitting as well, you don’t like them? This is excellent.I’m really enjoying the 2018 version of Hanley so far.
This is modern day Main Board analysisJust to circle back, a page ago in this thread, you had been advocating for Moreland to play over Ramirez based on spring training game stats right? So if I understand your analysis method, when players are hitting well in small sample sizes including 2 very “visible” at bats you like them and when they are not hitting as well, you don’t like them? This is excellent.
I think his contract status is probably the last thing on his mind right now. I'd be worried about doing whatever's necessary for proper treatment and getting right.Do we think Hanley will play through this in an attempt to get these PAs? Or hit the DL?
Agreed. For all the flack he’s gotten, and how much people are praying he doesn’t vest, the guy has been a team player through and through. I think he gives zero point zero shits about the “few” extra bucks. I love his Instagram; it’s just family, working out, baseball, some nice cars here and there, all smiles always.I think his contract status is probably the last thing on his mind right now. I'd be worried about doing whatever's necessary for proper treatment and getting right.
Agreed on the team player part. Played left, didn't bitch. Played first, didn't bitch. DH'd after team signed Moreland, didn't bitch. Had to compete for his job this year with his contract on the line, didn't bitch. Yeah, he hasn't quite played completely up to said contract the entire time, but you can't argue the guy's gone with whatever the plan was.Agreed. For all the flack he’s gotten, and how much people are praying he doesn’t vest, the guy has been a team player through and through. I think he gives zero point zero shits about the “few” extra bucks. I love his Instagram; it’s just family, working out, baseball, some nice cars here and there, all smiles always.
Its a mutual decision. My guess is he wants to play as he has played through injuries before (not very well). My hope is the Red Sox are smart enough to know when he will be ready to play "effectively". Same goes for XB. Sadly based on the teams history I am not optimistic. Cora is the unknown here though. He has a lot of say.Do we think Hanley will play through this in an attempt to get these PAs? Or hit the DL?
I don't see Cora risking damage to the clubhouse dynamic he has built to deny a player a legitimate shot to meet the incentive (presuming Hanley doesn't miss much time), and if the team keeps doing well I don't see Dombrowski forcing him to.Its a mutual decision. My guess is he wants to play as he has played through injuries before (not very well). My hope is the Red Sox are smart enough to know when he will be ready to play "effectively". Same goes for XB. Sadly based on the teams history I am not optimistic. Cora is the unknown here though. He has a lot of say.
This is really what it boils down to. If Hanley is healthy and puts up an 850 OPS or something, then he will hit his PAs and they prob want him back for another year anyway with that production. If he shows further decline and has health issues, then he prob won't hit the PAs.The plate appearance issue should be self resolving. If Hanley performs, he reaches. If not, than likely not. Regarding this injury, I would suspect that Hanley is back in there as soon as he is ready to go. If he says he feels fine today, and the wrist passes strength tests....he plays. (Well, probably not tonight, but certainly over the weekend. If he can't pass the strength tests, then I would surmise he sits until he can.
There is no doubt he is obviously off to any excellent start. Can’t ask much more.I know these aren't the sexiest stats (plus the SSS thing), but Hanley's 15 RBI are tied for the MLB lead and his .362 AVG is 5th best in the majors. It's safe to say he's off to a good start.
SSS issues notes, but a relatively powerless 117 wRC+ is in the danger zone where he's not bad enough to justify benching, but not good enough to make me feel great about the option being picked up.Through May 6, Hanley's on pace for 634 PAs. He's hitting a decently productive .297/.366/.432, a 117 wRC+.
His ISO, at .136, is the lowest it's been since 2011. On the other hand, his average exit velocity sits at 91.5 MPH, an upgrade over last year's 88.4 MPH.
before this post: 53pa, .389babip, .255iso, 175wrc+I know these aren't the sexiest stats (plus the SSS thing), but Hanley's 15 RBI are tied for the MLB lead and his .362 AVG is 5th best in the majors. It's safe to say he's off to a good start.