We're halfway through the season

TFisNEXT

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The table shows how great the pitching has been so far, just amazing.

Also, Grady Fucking Littlebrain was so horrible. He was actually worse in 2002 than in 2003, but nobody remembers it because he had a very good team basically out of the wild card chase by early September.
The 2002 team was really damned good...it was a crime that they didn't make the playoffs. You had career-year Derek Lowe and still-close-to-peak Pedro at the top of the rotation plus a devastating middle of the lineup. It's kind of amazing how quick they fell out of it considering that Cliff Floyd tore the cover off the ball too after they traded for him.
 

Number45forever

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That chart just sent me looking back, again, at the offensive stats of the 2003 Sox. They were quite potent, what a fun team that was with Ortiz just exploding as the season wore on.
 

joe dokes

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The 2002 team was really damned good...it was a crime that they didn't make the playoffs. You had career-year Derek Lowe and still-close-to-peak Pedro at the top of the rotation plus a devastating middle of the lineup. It's kind of amazing how quick they fell out of it considering that Cliff Floyd tore the cover off the ball too after they traded for him.
Seattle won 93 and finished 3rd.
 

jmcc5400

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The 2002 team was really damned good...it was a crime that they didn't make the playoffs. You had career-year Derek Lowe and still-close-to-peak Pedro at the top of the rotation plus a devastating middle of the lineup. It's kind of amazing how quick they fell out of it considering that Cliff Floyd tore the cover off the ball too after they traded for him.
The funny thing is that Cliff Floyd became an absolute SoSH whipping boy due to his lack of run production. It seemed antithetical to everything SoSH was about, but we were all deeply frustrated by that team. Plus Butch Hobson's Elbo Chips had convinced us to love Seung Song.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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The funny thing is that Cliff Floyd became an absolute SoSH whipping boy due to his lack of run production. It seemed antithetical to everything SoSH was about, but we were all deeply frustrated by that team. Plus Butch Hobson's Elbo Chips had convinced us to love Seung Song.
It was quite the anomaly. He hit 316/374/561 in 47 games with 21 doubles and 7 home runs, but managed only 18 RBI. Not capitalizing on his acquisition at the deadline with a deep playoff run was heartbreaking for my 15 year old self.
 

Rasputin

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I'm just worried that the Yankees will go all-in on Machado, deGrom, and a bunch of other pieces and basically close the Red Sox' window before it opens.
They can't keep us out of the playoffs and anything can happen in a short series.
 

JimD

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I'm just worried that the Yankees will go all-in on Machado, deGrom, and a bunch of other pieces and basically close the Red Sox' window before it opens.
I've resigned myself to the fact that there is nothing the Red Sox and their fans can do to deter the Yankees from cashing in a pile of chips for big acquisitions if that is what the Steinbrenner brothers decide to do. I just hope that they have to compete with multiple teams for those players and Cashman's Jedi mind tricks fail to work this time around.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I've resigned myself to the fact that there is nothing the Red Sox and their fans can do to deter the Yankees from cashing in a pile of chips for big acquisitions if that is what the Steinbrenner brothers decide to do. I just hope that they have to compete with multiple teams for those players and Cashman's Jedi mind tricks fail to work this time around.
Exactly. There's little the Red Sox can do if the Yankees want to cash in their prospects for Machado or deGrom or Happ or whomever else. And it seems foolish and a little defeatist to worry about it. The Red Sox as currently constituted a damn good team. There's plenty of reason to be confident in their chances to win the division and be competitive in October regardless of what the Yankees do at the trade deadline.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I'm just worried that the Yankees will go all-in on Machado, deGrom, and a bunch of other pieces and basically close the Red Sox' window before it opens.
The Red Sox are now 3.5 games up. Granted, with two and a half months to go that's a thoroughly trivial lead, but it still seems unnecessarily defeatist--even for SoSH--to talk as if we're the ones looking for a window to open.
 
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bosockboy

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The Red Sox are now 3.5 games up. Granted, with two and a half months to go that's a thoroughly trivial lead, but it still seems unnecessarily defeatist--even for SoSH--to talk as if we're the ones looking for a window to open.
We have a pretty great schedule the rest of the month. Yankees have 4 in Cleveland this weekend. Ideally we get this to 5-6 games before we meet them in August.
 

chawson

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The good news is, we still have 9 games left against the Orioles.

The bad news is, the Yankees have 10.
Warmly recalled this post after the Yankee meltdown last night. It's like you spun a hex.

Our next series with the O's comes Monday, July 23. Decent chance they'll have traded Machado by then.
 

Rasputin

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Warmly recalled this post after the Yankee meltdown last night. It's like you spun a hex.

Our next series with the O's comes Monday, July 23. Decent chance they'll have traded Machado by then.
To the Yankees.
 

Sam Ray Not

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35-33 gets us to 100 wins for the first time since 1946, and fourth time in franchise history (1912, 1915, 1946).

Seems doable.
 

Rasputin

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This seems like SUCH a jinx.
He's not saying it's a done deal, just that it's not, well, you know, out of the question.

When we still take the division.
Yeah...whatever advantage we have is paper thin. The Yankees could get Machado, the best starting pitcher on the market, and the best reliever on the market. I think they'd be foolish to do so, but it would be ridiculously hard to beat them if they did.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Even without those additions I believe there is still a nagging feeling that the Yankees are the superior team.... based on our record against them thus far. Toss in a starting pitcher upgrade and it gets frightening
 

Sam Ray Not

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This seems like SUCH a jinx.
Haha, as Rasputin notes, I wasn’t opining on our chances of getting there, just noting the modest task in front of us (by way of noting how historically impressive the team has been to date).

Also, I’m not too exercised about 100 wins per se — though obviously avoiding the one-game play-in vs. Seattle (or Houston?) would be huge, and the way things are going we may need at least 108 or so to do that.

Fwiw: on pace for 112 wins, knock wood, touch iron, etc.
 

JimD

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Fangraphs and FiveThirtyEight now have the Sox at 61% to win the division, BP at 60%.
 

tims4wins

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How many times in Sox history have they been 36 games over .500? I believe the last time was 1978, 99-63 prior to the one game playoff.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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How many times in Sox history have they been 36 games over .500? I believe the last time was 1978, 99-63 prior to the one game playoff.
The following teams finished the season X games above .500:
  1. 1912 58
  2. 1946 54
  3. 1915 51
  4. 1903 44
  5. 1949 38
  6. 1948 37
  7. 1904 36
  8. 1978 35 (after the playoff game loss)
I couldn't tell you if any other teams got there during the season. (Edit: But I doubt it, scanning the posibilities.)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/index.shtml
 

Average Reds

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I'm just worried that the Yankees will go all-in on Machado, deGrom, and a bunch of other pieces and basically close the Red Sox' window before it opens.
Given the seemingly ridiculous cost they would have to pay for a rental, I've assumed that the Yankees aren't serious players for either Machado or deGrom. However, after thinking it through, I'm not so sure any more. More specifically, if we are to presume that the Sox window is closing and that the Yankees are at or near the beginning of theirs, it would be an interesting bit of war-gaming for them to attempt a kill shot this year.

I still don't think it's the right play and I still don't expect it. But I can see the rationale.
 

RG33

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We'll see when they start playing some good teams.
The Red Sox are 32-19 against teams with .500 or better records this year.

2-2 vs HOU
4-5 vs NYY
9-4 vs Tampa
6-0 vs LAA
4-3 vs SEA
2-4 vs OAK
2-1 vs ATL
3-0 vs WSH

Aside from not having played CLE and being 2-2 against HOU and 4-5 against the NYY, who are you waiting to see them play?

Here is a nifty grid for the league:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/grid

The Yankees have looked better overall against those teams, but it isn’t like the Red Sox have played lousy. The NYY against those same teams are 34-15:

5-4 vs Red Sox
3-0 vs CLE
5-2 vs HOU
5-1 vs LAA
2-1 vs OAK
3-0 vs SEA
5-4 vs Tampa
2-2 vs WSH
2-1 vs PHI
2-0 vs ATL

So, the Yankees have a 3 game edge over “the good teams” and yet the Red Sox have a 3.5 game edge on the Yankees. If going 35-33 the rest of the way to win 100 games seems like a stretch — I am not sure what you have been watching.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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The Red Sox are 32-19 against teams with .500 or better records this year.

2-2 vs HOU
4-5 vs NYY
9-4 vs Tampa
6-0 vs LAA
4-3 vs SEA
2-4 vs OAK
2-1 vs ATL
3-0 vs WSH

Aside from not having played CLE and being 2-2 against HOU and 4-5 against the NYY, who are you waiting to see them play?

Here is a nifty grid for the league:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/grid

The Yankees have looked better overall against those teams, but it isn’t like the Red Sox have played lousy. The NYY against those same teams are 34-15:

5-4 vs Red Sox
3-0 vs CLE
5-2 vs HOU
5-1 vs LAA
2-1 vs OAK
3-0 vs SEA
5-4 vs Tampa
2-2 vs WSH
2-1 vs PHI
2-0 vs ATL

So, the Yankees have a 3 game edge over “the good teams” and yet the Red Sox have a 3.5 game edge on the Yankees. If going 35-33 the rest of the way to win 100 games seems like a stretch — I am not sure what you have been watching.
He's been reading the game threads, where this has been a running gag.
 

uncannymanny

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Sorry @RGREELEY33, that was the riff during the early season win streak. Man, this team is fantastic and I didn’t know they are that historically good. It’s insane that we’re looking at the possibility of 69 wins and a > .700 record before the ASB. Pinch me!
 

jon abbey

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Given the seemingly ridiculous cost they would have to pay for a rental, I've assumed that the Yankees aren't serious players for either Machado or deGrom. However, after thinking it through, I'm not so sure any more. More specifically, if we are to presume that the Sox window is closing and that the Yankees are at or near the beginning of theirs, it would be an interesting bit of war-gaming for them to attempt a kill shot this year.

I still don't think it's the right play and I still don't expect it. But I can see the rationale.
I think the Machado price tag as a rental will be lower than expected, and if NY can get him without using Andujar, that frees up Andujar as the lead chip for SP help, which is what they really need.

But also I want to push back a bit against the conventional wisdom on both sides that winning the division is utterly crucial. Obviously both teams would prefer to avoid the coin flip wild card game, but it will likely be a home game at least. Assuming the AL East team gets through that like NY did last year, I really think it is a crap shoot between all four teams (including HOU and CLE) and nothing between now and the end of the season is going to change that too much. Last year NY went 6-6 in the postseason against CLE and HOU after winning the wild card game, and I think the four teams are similarly balanced this year. It's far from ideal to have to win a wild card game and then have to go to HOU (if they end up as the #1 seeds), but the 'easiest' possible road is a 5 game series against CLE and Kluber, so not exactly easy.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Pretty safe to say that if this team does close 35-33, this will be the crankiest 100-win fanbase in MLB history.
 

RG33

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Sorry @RGREELEY33, that was the riff during the early season win streak. Man, this team is fantastic and I didn’t know they are that historically good. It’s insane that we’re looking at the possibility of 69 wins and a > .700 record before the ASB. Pinch me!
Sorry, haven’t been in many game threads this year, didn’t pick up on the sarcasm. Was still a fun exercise for me to undertake while on the can though — so thanks for that!

This has been a lot of fun to watch — likely to be the best regular season in our lifetimes — and yet we’ll be staring down HOU and NYY in the playoffs. Gonna be a fun September/October!
 

Sam Ray Not

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I think the Machado price tag as a rental will be lower than expected, and if NY can get him without using Andujar, that frees up Andujar as the lead chip for SP help, which is what they really need.

But also I want to push back a bit against the conventional wisdom on both sides that winning the division is utterly crucial. Obviously both teams would prefer to avoid the coin flip wild card game, but it will likely be a home game at least. Assuming the AL East team gets through that like NY did last year, I really think it is a crap shoot between all four teams (including HOU and CLE) and nothing between now and the end of the season is going to change that too much. Last year NY went 6-6 in the postseason against CLE and HOU after winning the wild card game, and I think the four teams are similarly balanced this year. It's far from ideal to have to win a wild card game and then have to go to HOU (if they end up as the #1 seeds), but the 'easiest' possible road is a 5 game series against CLE and Kluber, so not exactly easy.
I guess it depends on your definition of “utterly crucial,” but you don’t dread the idea of a single game in which the best case is burning Severino for four days and starting the ALDS with Sabathia (?), and the alternative is James Paxton ending your season?

Edit: of course, if it’s a photo-finish for the division, you may not even be able to line up Severino (or Sale in our case) for the play-in game, which I suppose could be worse or better.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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I guess it depends on your definition of “utterly crucial,” but you don’t dread the idea of a single game in which the best case is burning Severino for four days and starting the ALDS with Sabathia (?), and the alternative is James Paxton ending your season?
With, at best, a 65% chance of the best case and a 35% chance of the worst case.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Sorry, haven’t been in many game threads this year, didn’t pick up on the sarcasm. Was still a fun exercise for me to undertake while on the can though — so thanks for that!

This has been a lot of fun to watch — likely to be the best regular season in our lifetimes — and yet we’ll be staring down HOU and NYY in the playoffs. Gonna be a fun September/October!
It was good info you collected
 

Average Reds

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Sorry @RGREELEY33, that was the riff during the early season win streak. Man, this team is fantastic and I didn’t know they are that historically good. It’s insane that we’re looking at the possibility of 69 wins and a > .700 record before the ASB. Pinch me!
Forget who said it, but basically someone (a relatively new lurker, I believe) made what I and others perceived as a serious comment that they'd rather be .500 against good teams than 16-2 (or whatever the record was at that time) against bad teams, because beating up on bad teams shows us nothing about how good they actually are.

And yes, I've been making the same joke all year because that was epic.
 

uncannymanny

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Sorry, haven’t been in many game threads this year, didn’t pick up on the sarcasm. Was still a fun exercise for me to undertake while on the can though — so thanks for that!

This has been a lot of fun to watch — likely to be the best regular season in our lifetimes — and yet we’ll be staring down HOU and NYY in the playoffs. Gonna be a fun September/October!
It was good info! I’m sure no one is upset about seeing how good they’ve been laid out [emoji16]

Forget who said it, but basically someone (a relatively new lurker, I believe) made what I and others perceived as a serious comment that they'd rather be .500 against good teams than 16-2 (or whatever the record was at that time) against bad teams, because beating up on bad teams shows us nothing about how good they actually are.

And yes, I've been making the same joke all year because that was epic.
Yup, that was the discussion, and unless there’s some inexplicable long con, it was serious. Wasn’t it soxeast?
 

Average Reds

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I think the Machado price tag as a rental will be lower than expected, and if NY can get him without using Andujar, that frees up Andujar as the lead chip for SP help, which is what they really need.
If the Yankees can get him without giving up Adjujar, they'll probably do it. I can't imagine that Baltimore would do that, but it's Baltimore, so who knows.

But also I want to push back a bit against the conventional wisdom on both sides that winning the division is utterly crucial. Obviously both teams would prefer to avoid the coin flip wild card game, but it will likely be a home game at least. Assuming the AL East team gets through that like NY did last year, I really think it is a crap shoot between all four teams (including HOU and CLE) and nothing between now and the end of the season is going to change that too much. Last year NY went 6-6 in the postseason against CLE and HOU after winning the wild card game, and I think the four teams are similarly balanced this year. It's far from ideal to have to win a wild card game and then have to go to HOU (if they end up as the #1 seeds), but the 'easiest' possible road is a 5 game series against CLE and Kluber, so not exactly easy.
A one game playoff between winning teams is essentially a crapshoot. So while I agree that once you get through that there's little difference (other that rotation setup, which may or may not be significant) avoiding that one game would seem to be a very significant advantage.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Hah, I was waiting for that. I meant exclusive of the playoffs — MLB history is of course littered with 100-win teams who didn’t close the deal. Indeed, of the 27 teams since the ‘86 Mets who have won 100 games, only four of them have won it all (‘98 and ‘09 MFY, ‘16 Cubs, ‘17 Astros).
 

Al Zarilla

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Can we nix the comparisons to 1978, please. In the pre-internet age of 1978, I was actually buying Baseball Magazine type mags to get all I could about the season, living in CA, with no Globe (or Herald) to read. Then it all started to go bad in late August. Even Eck couldn’t stop the bleeding, all the way down to the BFD game. Why make comps to a season that ended in a slow death?
 

Adrian's Dome

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Even without those additions I believe there is still a nagging feeling that the Yankees are the superior team.... based on our record against them thus far. Toss in a starting pitcher upgrade and it gets frightening
That is entirely and 100% only David Price's fault.

By most measures (including differential,) the Sox are slightly better.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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