Sorry, I misread your post.Yes 5 of 6 has them needing to make up 5 over 17. Also the odds are in our favor the last 3 of those 6 will be rendered meaningless. They need to make up 5.5 by the final weekend then sweep us. Tough math.
Sorry, I misread your post.Yes 5 of 6 has them needing to make up 5 over 17. Also the odds are in our favor the last 3 of those 6 will be rendered meaningless. They need to make up 5.5 by the final weekend then sweep us. Tough math.
If they can win 6 or 7 of their next 11, and we assume the Yankees do the same (@OAK, @SEA, @MIN, TOR), that would put the magic number in the 4-5 range. They could theoretically clinch the division during the series in the Bronx.If the Sox can win 7 of their next 11, which basically means winning their current series against the Braves, along with the upcoming series against the Astros, Blue Jays, and Mets, then the magic number will be well into the single digits by the time they go to NY. They could even go 6-5; either way, if the Sox can pull that off, they make the math for the Yankees be somewhere between very difficult and impossible, barring a 6 game sweep.
At this point, it basically comes down to the MFY's getting three games against Seattle and four games against the Rays, while the Sox get three against the Astros and three against the Indians, plus the six head to head contests of course. The rest pretty much washes itself out IMO.When do the Yankees start playing all of those bad teams they’re certainly going to steamroll? Asking for a friend.
It looks now that the best hope for NY is Judge coming back effective. I don't know when Chapman is expected, but he could help, too.Although anything can happen ( I don't like to think of 2011) and the Sox have a difficult stretch with 3 v Astros,3 v Tribe and six with NY, I look at it this way. It took the Yankees 16 games (since aug. 18) to make up two games in the loss column. Given that math with 23 games remaining, it seems unlikely the Yankees can make up the remaining 8 games to win the division title.
That was August. Sox had a two week stretch of @Phi, vs TB, vs. Cle, @ TB where the Sox went 5-7. During that stretch the Yanks had vs. Mets (makeup), vs. TB, vs Tor, @Florida, @Bal and went 9-4.When do the Yankees start playing all of those bad teams they’re certainly going to steamroll? Asking for a friend.
More than that -- both teams have home series left against Tor and Bal, so they exactly wash out. Otherwise the Sox have two more @Atl (while NY is @ Oak) and three vs. Mets (compared to NY @Minnesota)At this point, it basically comes down to the MFY's getting three games against Seattle and four games against the Rays, while the Sox get three against the Astros and three against the Indians, plus the six head to head contests of course. The rest pretty much washes itself out IMO.
Their “weak” stretch included the CWS/DET series, both of which they lost and tied, respectively. So 12-8 over this part of the schedule they were to assert their dominance. I seriously don’t understand how anyone can be worried about the division at this point, barring nonsensical superstitions about 40 year old clubs.That was August. Sox had a two week stretch of @Phi, vs TB, vs. Cle, @ TB where the Sox went 5-7. During that stretch the Yanks had vs. Mets (makeup), vs. TB, vs Tor, @Florida, @Bal and went 9-4.
Isn't it also the case that the Red Sox have been waiting until the bullpens come in to go to town?Sox will beat DeGrom 1 to 0. Like all his starts, it will be the bullpen that gives up the run.
A 6-6 stretch is not a problem. The Yankees need us to be worse than that.Cole, Keuchel, deGrom, Wheeler, Severino, Tanaka over the next 12 games.
Just a tad worried this is a 6-6 stretch coming up.
2011 could be repeating....just not the Sox part of itI'll just throw out there that the 2011 comps don't add up. Then it was their actual starting pitching staff (Lackey, Lester, Beckett, Wakefield) that completely collapsed. Here it is the temporary absence of our starting rotation that has slowed down their pace. I'd be worried if the injured pitchers weren't all about to return.
Obviously this is all speculation but the Rays have been playing at least as well as the Yankees for a while now and while a sweep is of course possible I think it is clearly unlikely.I think an interesting weekend starts Friday 21 September when, after visiting the Yankees, the Red Sox fly to Cleveland while the Orioles slither into the Toilet to hand the Yankees three guaranteed wins. Yankees could gain 2 games that weekend (and 1 game in the BOS-NYY series before). That sets up the Showalters to play their hearts out and win one against Boston. If the Yankees take out Tampa in a sweep they could make up another game. That's 4 games made good (without considering the Houston series). The final 3 games could be fun...for Boston, as they send NY to Oakland.
More like completely irrational. The Rays have just as much chance as sweeping them. We just saw them do it to us.Obviously this is all speculation but the Rays have been playing at least as well as the Yankees for a while now and while a sweep is of course possible I think it is clearly unlikely.
Anyone worried about the Sox losing the east is being pretty irrational at this point.
The 2011 Rays finished on an 17-8 run, and the 1978 Yankees finished on a 29-9 run. That's the kind of performance today's Yankees would need, on top of a Red Sox collapse.On the morning of September 5th in 2011, the Sox had slipped to 1.5 games behind the Yankees. But they did still have an 8 game lead over Tampa in the wild card standings.
In 1978, the Sox were up 5 games, but had just lost to the Orioles while in the middle of a key 1-5 slump in the lead up to the infamous Massacre series.
The Yankees, most likely, will need to win basically all six remaining games against the Red Sox. Going 5-1 only picks up 4 games in the standings, and they're currently 8.5 games up in the standings. So the Yanks would need to make up 4.5 games with just 17 left (16 for Bos). That's a lot of ground to make up in a short span of time. Going 6-0 vs. Boston would make it pretty doable though. Going 4-2 vs. Boston is almost useless for NY.Put differently (and ignoring rounding error), if the Sox gagged out a .500 record the rest of the way (in other words, their worst 22 game stretch of the season), the MFY would need to go 20-3 to catch us. If the Sox managed to step on their dick to the tune of winning 33% of their remaining games, the MFY still wouldn't catch them at their current win % of .626.
So yeah, if the Sox completely shit down their proverbial leg, they could lose the division. And that would suck. But we have seen no evidence to support that as a likely outcome of this season.
More difficult for them is that 3 of those 6 games are the final 3. They will have a lot of magic to do to even make those last 3 mean anything.The Yankees, most likely, will need to win basically all six remaining games against the Red Sox. Going 5-1 only picks up 4 games in the standings, and they're currently 8.5 games up in the standings. So the Yanks would need to make up 4.5 games with just 17 left (16 for Bos). That's a lot of ground to make up in a short span of time. Going 6-0 vs. Boston would make it pretty doable though. Going 4-2 vs. Boston is almost useless for NY.
It's entirely possible the series will be meaningless for the Red Sox too. The magic number is 15 and they've got 12 games (not including today) to play before they get to Cleveland. Unless they have a significantly bad home stand and get swept in the Bronx, they should at least be at a point where the series in Cleveland won't be life and death for either team.The Indians magic number is 10. That series in Cleveland on Sept 21 may be meaningless to them. Tito could rest players or set up the rotation to avoid showing a potential playoff opponent his best starters.
Can you provide us with a WFAN update THIS afternoon? Much obliged.The level of resignation about the AL East on WFAN yesterday afternoon was extraordinary and delicious. I always thought Yankees fans and media cheerleaders would show that classic Yankees confidence and arrogance when put in their current position. Not that they’re wrong or the math doesn’t back them up. But confident they are not.
I assume that one win and recency bias will lead to slightly more confidence today.
Still, hearing how worried, and really resigned, MFYFs are in early September was a schadenfreude Festivus.
[Late edit to fix a few errors]
And PS: I just now focused on the poll answers. Nine is the correct answer. To ANY poll.
Oh ye of little faith.Make that 5 to go with 18/20, my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today.
Remember when Wade Boggs was so good at hitting with two strikes that when he got to 0-2 we used to say he had the pitcher right where he wanted him? I'm starting to feel that way about 7th-inning deficits. It's like they get a bunch of runs behind just to get psyched up.Oh ye of little faith.
The numbers don't really bear it out but their 2nd best inning this year is the 7th. The 8th is/was their worst. That may have changed today.Remember when Wade Boggs was so good at hitting with two strikes that when he got to 0-2 we used to say he had the pitcher right where he wanted him? I'm starting to feel that way about 7th-inning deficits. It's like they get a bunch of runs behind just to get psyched up.
Which means the in game adjustments they are making on pitchers are terrific.The numbers don't really bear it out but their 2nd best inning this year is the 7th. The 8th is/was their worst. That may have changed today.
Most of their damage comes between the 5th-7th innings and on the pitchers 3rd time thru the lineup. They are basically hitting like Aaron Judge as a team in the 5th. Insane.
Or that this is when starting pitchers are the most vulnerable, and when all but the most elite starters experience a significant decline in their performance.Which means the in game adjustments they are making on pitchers are terrific.
Yeah. That's why on its own, the 9th inning numbers don't look all that impressive but when you consider a large chunk of that performance is against the most elite relievers, it actually is.Or that this is when starting pitchers are the most vulnerable, and when all but the most elite starters experience a significant decline in their performance.
Hadn't thought of that in years!Remember when Wade Boggs was so good at hitting with two strikes that when he got to 0-2 we used to say he had the pitcher right where he wanted him? I'm starting to feel that way about 7th-inning deficits. It's like they get a bunch of runs behind just to get psyched up.
In the twenty-four seasons of data, there is only one player who has been a .300 hitter for all of his 2-strike at-bats in the data set. The data isn’t available for his whole career, but it covers 14 seasons and nearly 70% of his career plate appearances. In over 2000 plate appearances when down to his last strike, this player hit .302. The next closest among the other retired players is Hall of Famer Wade Boggs, who hit .262 with two-strikes on him.
The clear master of two-strike hitting is none other than Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn, and being able to hit .300 when down to his last strike made it a little easier for him to win his eight batting titles.
Didn't Gwynn and Boggs do a commercial together? I remember them being compared a lot despite not really being that similar, outside of hitting for average and never striking out. Ironic they'd be 1 and 2 on the list.Hadn't thought of that in years!
Yeah, not very worried about the Red Sox.my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today
You mean 9 ahead as of right now. Either 8.5 or 9.5 by the end of tonight. Red Sox have 21 games left and Yankees 23.I am quite happy to eat shit when it comes to my statement earlier! "my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today". So 6 ahead with 18 to go, 20 for the Yanks. No problemo.
I think he means even if the Yankees sweep the next series, the lead is 6 in 18 games.You mean 9 ahead as of right now. Either 8.5 or 9.5 by the end of tonight. Red Sox have 21 games left and Yankees 23.
This whole day has just been divine.I am quite happy to eat shit when it comes to my statement earlier! "my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today". So 6 ahead with 18 to go, 20 for the Yanks. No problemo.
Don't worry about it-- @bosockboy has you covered.I am quite happy to eat shit when it comes to my statement earlier! "my guess is they ain't comin' back from 7-1 down today". So 6 ahead with 18 to go, 20 for the Yanks. No problemo.