Playing the long con even back then.Tom Brady's first ever interview.
I find the part where he details the difficulties he has analyzing defenses particularly entertaining, considering he may be the best to ever do it now.
He'd also probably have an extra TD or two so the difference is probably even higher. Definitely a good example of why context matters. I was a little worried about a Brady decline this year, and a small one may have already started, but he more or less looks like the same player to me, which is encouraging. His numbers are still very good but there is still considerable upside remaining given Edelman/Gordon and (hopefully) improved Gronk production.Brady's stats so far this year:
170-250 (68.0%), 1,876 yds (7.5 ypa), 16 td, 7 int, 99.7 rating
Four of those INTs were on tipped/bobbled passes. The one against Houston was deflected at the line, so let's call that incomplete. The one to Develin yesterday was ill-advised but went through Develin's hands. That should have been a completion (though ill-advised so I'm not gonna praise Brady for that one). The two against Indy were balls that were absurd that Hogan and Gronk didn't catch. So let's change the numbers to:
173-250 (69.2%), 1,915 yds (7.7 ypa), 16 td, 3 int, 108.0 rating
Those four tipped/bobbled passes that turned into INTs have cost Brady's stats in a huge way. Maybe he doesn't care about any of that, and that's fine. But what the numbers SHOULD be shows how high of a level he's still playing at.
His completion percentage is 68%---the highest of his career is 68.9%, and that was 2007.My eye test seems to indicate TB12 is not as accurate/precise as in years past
That's he's been very accurate this year?Eli is now at a career high 68.7% .
What's your take on him?
Sam Bradford has the record for completion percentage in a season. So, yes, it's not the perfect statistic.Yes I agree as that was the last observation in my post you seemed to disagree with.
And yes Opie is pretty accurate with a 2 yard checkdown. But completion % is an unreliable stat for QB profiency.
Or he had it in 2016 at 71.6% and Drew Brees broke it last year, with 72%. Brees is a lock to be in the hall of fame. Bradford is horrendous. It's a volatile statistic.Sam Bradford has the record for completion percentage in a season. So, yes, it's not the perfect statistic.
He's GOAT @ Checkdowns? LOLThat's he's been very accurate this year?
EDIT: And that's it.
He's down on throws from 11-20 yards from 69% to 61% to 58% and 21-30 yards from 45% to 44% to 27.3%
He's up on throws behind the line and from 1-10 yards.
I think it was Josh Hermsmeyer I heard on a Podcast a few weeks ago, and he was saying that Air Yards are a function of the receiver. Which makes sense. When Brady had Moss or Cooks, he threw deep a lot. When he's got White and / or Edelman, he throws short a lot.This seems to be (and have been for a few years) a function of the offense.
Yards per attempt?Tom Brady's 2018 season year to date yards would be 12th on the all time Patriots list. It's a stupid stat, obviously, because the list is top heavy with Brady, Bledsoe, and Grogan, but that cracks me up a little bit.
Brady’s approximately 2000 yards wouldn’t be 12th all-time since he’s thrown for more than that 16 times.No, total yards.
Yes, total career yards as a New England Patriots quarterback. It's hilarious.Brady’s approximately 2000 yards wouldn’t be 12th all-time since he’s thrown for more than that 16 times.
Or am I missing something?
EDIT: Wait, I think I got it. That’s nuts.
I had to look this up. Is this NFL wins, because Jack Kemp has to have more than 14 wins in Buffalo. He won 43 games.Tom Brady is tied for 3rd most wins all time (14) for games played in Buffalo. If the Pats can win next Monday, he'll pass Bledsoe and have third all to himself.
Maybe that was a different stadium? I'm not sure, because Kemp should be 3rd.I had to look this up. Is this NFL wins, because Jack Kemp has to have more than 14 wins in Buffalo. He won 43 games.
If you took just Brady's 31 games against the Bills in his career, here's where he would rank on their all-time QB list:I had to look this up. That is 3rd most wins by a QB in Buffalo since 2001. Which is damned impressive, but not the same as all time.
Its some combination of aging and his receivers climbing the learning curve. But to my eye he is not as precise/accurate as he has been in years past. And to compensate he is targeting White in shorter passes. (so completion % increases).Yeah. We all know he’s good at that. We were trying to decipher why he seems off to some posters when his raw number was actually up.
It's NFL wins and technically Kemp never played in the NFL.Maybe that was a different stadium? I'm not sure, because Kemp should be 3rd.
I think the simple reality is that he has started his decline but it's more of a gradual one, which is perfectly fine and expected. He's still a very good to elite QB and can still carry the team, as we've seen several times this year. I'm less concerned about accuracy and far more concerned about physical skill decline, such as arm strength. To my untrained eyes, he still has plenty of zip on his passes and he's making the tough sideline throws pretty well.Evidence of a Brady decline? I’ve been wondering about this. He’s looked off this year. A lot of that has to do with his receivers but he is, to my eyes, missing more throws than usual. He hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been as good as some of his contemporaries this year.
The injuries on the offense of course impact his performance. What do you all think? Is this the start of his decline? I’m not an alarmist and I have not thought he was in a visible decline before this year. I’m not convinced yet but I am starting to have my worries.
Mitigating or explanatory factors: age, health, and familiarity with/of receivers and health of the OL.
I'm with you. I thought this piece was telling:I’m not convinced at this point. He’s had some bad luck on INTs and he played four weeks with a pretty bad WR corp and now Gronk is all messed up. He’s also had a good number of miscommunications with Gordon, which get labeled inaccurate. It could be a slight decline, or just a combo of bad luck and new/damaged weapons.
Um, hasn't this ALWAYS been the case? He tries to put the ball in a spot where only the intended receiver can make a play on the ball. It doesn't always work out but it has always been the way he approaches things IMO. I don't see any decline.And there is a distinct pattern to his inaccuracy: When he misses on shorter, driven throws, he almost always misses low to stationary targets or wide to moving targets. When he’s missed perimeter throws downfield, the ball has been high and to the outside.
True but he's also made more "scary" throws this year, IMO. I think it all depends on how people are defining "decline". I mean, he just came off of a SB loss where he threw 505 yards and basically ripped a good defense to shreds so even a small decline will be noticeable if that's your starting point.I’m not convinced at this point. He’s had some bad luck on INTs and he played four weeks with a pretty bad WR corp and now Gronk is all messed up. He’s also had a good number of miscommunications with Gordon, which get labeled inaccurate. It could be a slight decline, or just a combo of bad luck and new/damaged weapons.
Of course he's less productive on long throws. Last year they had one of the best deep receivers in the game in Cooks, and now he's gone and they didn't really replace him. We should expect this.The tipped INTs factored into his 1-10 and 11-20 numbers. But otherwise what we're seeing is worse production on long throws (21+ yards downfield). But it's such a small sample size (24 attempts) that even one or two completions really alters those numbers.
So on the whole, he seems pretty much like the same guy he was last year, with some worse luck on tipped passes that resulted in interceptions, plus a little less accuracy on longer throws.
It would be interesting to see Brady's long throw numbers for years like 2015 and 2016 before he had Cooks.Of course he's less productive on long throws. Last year they had one of the best deep receivers in the game in Cooks, and now he's gone and they didn't really replace him. We should expect this.
I don't think Brady has played his best this year, but he's been dealing with a lot of uncertainty in his receiving corps. It could be the inevitable decline, but it looks consistent to me with his prior "bad" stretches like mid-2013, late 2015, 2009, 2006, or any other year where his receivers have been sub-par.
Yup. Who here isn't expecting 325/3 against the Packers with Rodgers and the Sox in the house? I think this is a worthwhile discussion because the decline is certainly coming. I've only noticed a very small decline, which could easily be explained by other factors that have been mentioned. The fastball is still clocking in at 95 mph.Edelman also dropped that pass in the Colts game. I mean, watching Brady in some of these games, he played really, really well. That Colts game he was outstanding. He was damn freaking good in the Chiefs game too.
It depends on how many of Cannon / Mason / Gronk / Edelman / Michel miss the game. If he's playing minus three or four starters, I expect the offense to struggle.Yup. Who here isn't expecting 325/3 against the Packers with Rodgers and the Sox in the house?
If it’s an underthrow it’s not on the receiver.At least two of the 40+ throws should have been caught, as I recall. One was a flat out drop by Dorsett and I believe one was also the underthrow to Gordon Monday, which he really should have had. I’m not positive if that one went 40 yards, though. It was also quite windy.
2017 - with Cooks, in boldIt would be interesting to see Brady's long throw numbers for years like 2015 and 2016 before he had Cooks.
This is a joke. Its the Brady can do no wrong crowd. He's had a much worse OL and much worse WR core (2006 and likely 2002-2004) in many other years and there was no drop. I love the guy don't get me wrong, but there was average pressure on him last Sunday and he crapped himself and saw pressure when there wasn't. He missed several throws and has been missing them all year. What came did he come on a bit?(I guess KC, he was not good against GB) I have no life and watch the all-22 when it comes out. He has missed throws to open or relatively open WRs all season. Again my hope is more its the missed training camp and not age but it's him and not so much the talent.He's been operating with an OL that has been up and down, no NFL running backs, a broken Gronk and no WRs who can get open other than Gordon who is still learning the playbook and not close to what he once was. They've been resorting to gimmick plays because of lack of offensive talent. Brady started slow, started to come on a bit and then fell back but he isn't driven a Porsche this year. The talent drain, injuries and vacated draft picks have taken a toll and that has hurt Brady's numbers more than Brady's lack of execution.