Maybe playing in 12 degree weather is it. Can't imagine he has much experience in it.So where's the weakness? Well, there isn't really one. Part of it is Mahomes is just a generational talent.
Granted, no one really does, but still, that's cold.
Maybe playing in 12 degree weather is it. Can't imagine he has much experience in it.So where's the weakness? Well, there isn't really one. Part of it is Mahomes is just a generational talent.
I don't love Mahomes as much as everyone else. He reminds me too much of Favre and try's to make to many plays.So where's the weakness? Well, there isn't really one. Part of it is Mahomes is just a generational talent.
Why does it have to be either? We've seen how they've done this in the past, having a DE jam the TE at the line for a second or two before rushing the QB (unless they split him out wide) to mess up the timing and then for Hill using a safety over the top.BB can game plan to stop Kelce or Hill. Which one he chooses may decide the game.
Kicking him while he’s down?Kareem Hunt last 2 Pats games...
...He is no longer a concern.
Hot take.I guess its just a question of what inference do we draw from their road record this year. Many of the key players (and obviously, coaches) are the same as the last few years and this team went 15-1 on the road over the course of 2016-17.
If they do something akin to what we saw yesterday (lots of blitzing) then it's certainly possible they hit us for a long gain. That's the downside to that type of pressure. Going to be interesting to see what we cook up.Need to avoid the kind of scheme mishap that resulted in the long Hill touchdown late in the first matchup. They are going to put up points but you can't give them touchdowns for free. Gave them two 60+ yarders, a short field off a strip sack, and a 97 and KO return for an easy score. Punts would be optimal, of course, but at the very least they'll need to force some FGs.
Ugh, this again. They still had the one seed after blowing the Denver game. Then they lost three of their last five.It’s crazy how the Chris Harper fumble almost singlehandedly prevented the 2015 team from getting to the super bowl that season.
Okay, that and some of the most bogus OPI calls in the history of the game against Gronk.
This too. They lost four other games (three badly), and if they had played a lick of defense before that final lateral play they wouldn't have been in position to blow the game.A week from now we may be talking about how a 70-yard, multi-lateral TD with time expired cost the Pats a trip to the Super Bowl.
Their home / road splits were so extreme, I have trouble chalking it up as just variance. They were 2nd in defensive DVOA at home and 31st on the road. All their worst offensive performances (other than Week 16 vs BUF) were on the road, too. And they played a tougher schedule at home - KC, HOU, IND, MIN, now LAC - while playing awful against dreadful opponents like JAX and DET on the road. And they caught their road opponents at the right time. TEN beat the Pats in the middle of a 2-5 stretch, MIA beat the Pats in a 2-5 season-ending skid, and the Steelers were on a three-game losing streak before beating the Pats (and then lost the game after).I guess its just a question of what inference do we draw from their road record this year. Many of the key players (and obviously, coaches) are the same as the last few years and this team went 15-1 on the road over the course of 2016-17.
Unless there's a specific theory about why the Patriots were amazing on the road for two years (indeed, better on the road than at home) than suddenly a poor team on the road this year, our default assumption should be to chalk it up to variance and shit happening.
That's not to say that its not a disadvantage to be on the road but reading too much into a few games, when there is no longer trend beyond this year and no convincing theory (at least that I've heard) about why a change would occur, is a mistake IMO.
Some googling does indicate that sound would be louder at warmer temperatures. But, considering that the temperature range of air can be from the point where the nitrogen and oxygen would liquify, all the way to millions of degrees, how much could 20-30F degrees difference make?It's scheduled to be as low as -5 on Sunday in KC. I would imagine that would depress a lot of the crowd noise, as it's hard to clap when you're bundled up.
I think he was saying gloves vs hands clapping.Some googling does indicate that sound would be louder at warmer temperatures. But, considering that the temperature range of air can be from the point where the nitrogen and oxygen would liquify, all the way to millions of degrees, how much could 20-30F degrees difference make?
This answer is basically the equivalent of Sean Payton deciding to use Taysom Hill at QB over Drew Brees when he's carving up the Eagles defense.Some googling does indicate that sound would be louder at warmer temperatures. But, considering that the temperature range of air can be from the point where the nitrogen and oxygen would liquify, all the way to millions of degrees, how much could 20-30F degrees difference make?
If he could be a "much better QB", then we're talking about hands-down the greatest of all time ever to play the position. I mean, he just put up a 66%, 5,097 yds, 50 td, 12 int, 113.8 rating season, tacking on 272 rushing yards as well. As a 23-year old. I don't know how it's even possible to be "much better" than that. Part of what makes him great are those risky throws - he has the talent to pull them off. It's like Michael Jordan's ability to make circus shots, even when the D is playing great on him. Yeah for anyone else those would be insane to try, but it's Michael Jordan so, yeah. Mahomes is just 23 and obviously this isn't really a Jordan comp, but it's at least the same idea. I've never seen anyone run full sprint to his right and throw across his body to the left - a frozen rope to a guy in a tight window - yet Mahomes has the talent to make that play. Yes he can make mistakes, but for all his mistake-ability, he had just one INT more than Brady this season.I don't love Mahomes as much as everyone else. He reminds me too much of Favre and try's to make to many plays.
He makes more than a few throws a game that are insanely risky and should not be attempted. He almost let the Colts back into the game by making cross-field throws that if they were a few inches higher or wider would have been picked off.
The guy is in a great system with amazing talent around him and one of the best offensive play callers in the league. If he just played within the system and did not attempt so many risky throws he would be a much better QB.
Mahomes has great talent, but that is his biggest flaw in my opinion as well.
Some googling does indicate that sound would be louder at warmer temperatures. But, considering that the temperature range of air can be from the point where the nitrogen and oxygen would liquify, all the way to millions of degrees, how much could 20-30F degrees difference make?
I think he was saying gloves vs hands clapping.
Bingo. You can't clap and screaming is reduced as your face is literally frozen. And it just saps energy in general.Also a not insignificant percentage of folks will have ski masks or something covering their faces / mouths
Its pretty difficult to prove a negative in this case.Their home / road splits were so extreme, I have trouble chalking it up as just variance. They were 2nd in defensive DVOA at home and 31st on the road. All their worst offensive performances (other than Week 16 vs BUF) were on the road, too. And they played a tougher schedule at home - KC, HOU, IND, MIN, now LAC - while playing awful against dreadful opponents like JAX and DET on the road. And they caught their road opponents at the right time. TEN beat the Pats in the middle of a 2-5 stretch, MIA beat the Pats in a 2-5 season-ending skid, and the Steelers were on a three-game losing streak before beating the Pats (and then lost the game after).
I don't have an explanation, but the performance was so extreme I think the burden of proof is on the idea that it's just variance.
Oh, I thought he meant the cold air would suppress the sound too.I think he was saying gloves vs hands clapping.
I thought this was an interesting point as well, so I looked it up. Turns out Mahomes' one start last year was a 17 degree day in Denver. His stat line was meh (284 yards, 1 pick, 0 TD) but it was his first start as a rookie.Maybe playing in 12 degree weather is it. Can't imagine he has much experience in it.
Granted, no one really does, but still, that's cold.
That's always been the formula for beating Brady: cover the primary guys long enough to get pressure rushing four. All the while containing the run game and screen passes well enough to keep them from doing much damage.I suspect KC will come out with press coverage all over the field and make NE's receivers get separation. Indy's couldn't. And then hope their pretty solid 4-man pass rush can get to Brady before he can find an open guy.
The counter to this is just pound the ball down their throats, then run play action.
I'm encouraged that they took James White out of the bubble wrap he's been mostly stashed in since the Minnesota game. That's an outlet that is almost always available that provides a guaranteed 3-5 yards at minimum, which doesn't sound like a lot but makes a huge difference if it's turning 2nd and 10s into 3rd and 5s or better.That's always been the formula for beating Brady: cover the primary guys long enough to get pressure rushing four. All the while containing the run game and screen passes well enough to keep them from doing much damage.
Just that it's very difficult to pull it off for 4 straight quarters.
I like it. As someone else posted, swarm tackling on D. Those KC receivers are going to make catches, but have them pay the price in the cold for every one.It's scheduled to be as low as -5 on Sunday in KC. I would imagine that would depress a lot of the crowd noise, as it's hard to clap when you're bundled up.
Damien Williams has looked pretty good. Against the Colts, he had 129 rushing (with a TD) and 5 receptions for an additional 25 yards.Kareem Hunt last 2 Pats game Totals
228 Yards Rushing 27 Carries 8.4ypc
203 Yard Rec 10 Catches 20.3 per
4 TDs
1 Fumble (his very first carry of his career LOL).
He is no longer a concern.
BB can game plan to stop Kelce or Hill. Which one he chooses may decide the game.
gloves v. bare hands, yeah.I think he was saying gloves vs hands clapping.
I thought this was an interesting point as well, so I looked it up. Turns out Mahomes' one start last year was a 17 degree day in Denver. His stat line was meh (284 yards, 1 pick, 0 TD) but it was his first start as a rookie.
Also, Reid is saying Eric Berry is day to day. I'd be surprised if he plays much and is effective on that heel.
That field in Arrowhead looked messy. Hopefully another week of snow/ice may be able to slow Mahomes, who looked a bit gimpy as well.
Swarm tackling on the QB. HE's not "so" used to the cold, and maybe even more than it affecting his arm or accuracy, he's going to feel those hits in the cold. Too bad the field is warmed....an ice-hard field would make tackles hard on him when he scrambles.I like it. As someone else posted, swarm tackling on D. Those KC receivers are going to make catches, but have them pay the price in the cold for every one.
The tickets for the chiefs general public sale were outrageously expensive today. I “scored” a single in the upper level for $340. Yes this from the chiefs box office and not on the exchange thing. I think they must be doing this to discourage people from buying and reselling. Not thrilled with that. I feel like I got conned a bit by getting a ticket at “face value”. Anyway it’s my own fault but I got caught caught up in the whole wait room and presale hoopla that I just bought without really looking or thinking. Did anyone else have this experience?
Doesn't the league set playoff prices?The tickets for the chiefs general public sale were outrageously expensive today. I “scored” a single in the upper level for $340. Yes this from the chiefs box office and not on the exchange thing. I think they must be doing this to discourage people from buying and reselling. Not thrilled with that. I feel like I got conned a bit by getting a ticket at “face value”. Anyway it’s my own fault but I got caught caught up in the whole wait room and presale hoopla that I just bought without really looking or thinking. Did anyone else have this experience?
Not sure how the NFL works it. MLB yes. I know season ticket holders paid about half of what I did...Doesn't the league set playoff prices?
The Chargers I think are easier to explain with variance / shit happens - they went as their turnover differential took them. They were -2 at home vs Baltimore and lost; they were +2 at Baltimore in the divisional round and won. They were -2 in all three of their home losses. Turnovers are exactly that sort of unpredictable / high variance / shit happens that leads to weird stuff.Its pretty difficult to prove a negative in this case.
I think its important to underline that its not just variance, as in poor luck, but also what I termed "shit happens" that could be accounting for the bad road performance this year (bad game plan, bad matchups, various other one time problems cropping up in different games). As long as those things aren't predictive of the future, they can just be lumped in with variance.
I just don't see what the explanation would be and in the absence of a compelling explanation for why this team is all of a sudden likely to perform relatively worse on the road than your average team, I'm not going to get worried about it.
For a good example of the dangers of worrying about these small performance subsamples, look at the Chargers, the league's best road team this year who just laid a total egg on the road.
They only played three away games after the bye, and went 1-2. They were closer than the three pre-bye road losses, so ... improvement, maybe? But their only quality road win (at Chicago) was pre-bye, and the only post-bye road win was @ the hapless Jets with a backup QB.1. The Pats had three road losses before their bye week. Admittedly it was a late bye, but the Pats re-invent themselves as the season unfolds.
Way to go, Andy Dalton!Mahomes winning a game this weekend was the first time a Big 12(est. 1996) quarterback has won a playoff game. Kind of an insane stat.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/afc-title-game-buildup-pats-at-chiefs.25989/page-2#post-3236687Does it make sense to Break down our losses.
1. Jacksonville- At the time considered a real power in the AFC. Game temp was also 97 Degrees. Not much else I can remember. OL seems like it was in flux. Cannon was out, and Jacksonville had a very strong Dline.
2. Detroit-I keep wondering how Matty P fits into the equation. How much did he "know". Hard to believe that the Pats staff didnt mix things up sufficiently but it was a weird loss. No Edelman. No Gordon.
3.Tennesse- I also keep wondering how Vrabel fits into the equation. Ok maybe a mediocre to bad Detroit team caught us on a bad day. But when you also add in that Vrabel and his mediocre team also caught us on a bad day I get skeptical. No Gronk...not even Blocking Gronk
4. Miami-House of horrors, hot day, last minute miracle. Chalk it up to a bad day on all involved.
5.Steelers- Good team, great talent. Practically a division game for as often as we play.
This is totally not "the patriot way" (ie i am "Making excuses"). But when I look at this I can convince myself that this team isnt as bad on the road as I think. Especially now that they are as healthy(full roster) as they have been. And I will go to my grave believing that Matty P and Vrabel keyed in on something (Snapcount, defense, etc etc). Familiarity and all that.
Am i way off base in any of these "excuses"?
You can also say that their only three road wins were 1) at Chicago in a game where the Pats had 14 special teams points and won by 7 2) at Buffalo with their third-string QB 3) at the Jets with their backup QB.Am i way off base in any of these "excuses"?
That's definitely true but that affects every road team in the NFL, including the Patriots' road teams in 2016-17 when they went 15-1.The Chargers I think are easier to explain with variance / shit happens - they went as their turnover differential took them. They were -2 at home vs Baltimore and lost; they were +2 at Baltimore in the divisional round and won. They were -2 in all three of their home losses. Turnovers are exactly that sort of unpredictable / high variance / shit happens that leads to weird stuff.
But the Patriots didn't lose the turnover battle in any of their five losses, remarkably. They just got beat.
I guess if you wanted to isolate a cause, it would be that hearing the snap count on offense and limiting the opposing offense's ability to adjust pre-snap is vital to winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. The Patriots' six worst rushing performances were all on the road (they went 1-5). Five of their worst six run defense performances were on the road (the one exception: Houston Week 1, if you're curious). Although really, you could do this with just about any stat. They played like the best or one of the best teams in the league at home all season and like a bad team on the road, even though they played a weak road schedule.
I think the big difference is that you probably don't have to worry quite as much about Williams coming out of the backfield. He has been catching plenty of passes but they have been more of the short dump-off or screen variety. Hunt is more likely to be outrunning one of our LBs on a wheel route downfield and to take one of those short passes 20+ yards instead of the 5 to 7 yards the average RB would get.How different is this Chiefs offense without Kareem Hunt?
Watching the longish set of highlights from that earlier game, Hunt was a genuine menace. With him no longer in the equation, and with say, Patterson now a more meaningful wrinkle in the Pats running game, I wonder if this looks and feels like a really different game on both sides of the ball. I know, the Pats lost Gordon too, but man, Hunt was scarry.