Celtics open as +240.I think they'll probably be +225 or something similar for the series. That puts them around 30% odds, when it should be closer to 65% based my biased expectations.
Celtics open as +240.I think they'll probably be +225 or something similar for the series. That puts them around 30% odds, when it should be closer to 65% based my biased expectations.
1983 was irrelevant because the Celtics weren't getting past Philly. I had very little problem with it at the time and even less by the time 1984 started.We should have this thread by now.
Some good history in this series (Celtics win last year); some bad (Bucks sweep in 1983 that led to Bill Fitch getting sh!tcanned).
I will be watching cautiously, having been burned multiple times by this frustrating Celtics group, thinking they had turned the corner, and finding out they had...not.
Bottom line is, if they can't beat Milwaukee without home court advantage, they weren't winning a title. Hopefully Brad has a playoff rotation ready to go, and the C's send a message in round two.
You need laterally quick wing defenders at every position because they move the ball so quickly and in secondary transition. I expect Morris to start and match up with Lopez as he’s quick enough to contest on the perimeter and big enough to deter Lopez from dropping deep on the box for an easy layup.This resonates with me, nice post.
How can the Celtics do a better job limiting the dribble penetration of the Bucks guards? I’ve often felt like that was their biggest advantage. I’d rather force them into shooting 3’s than allow those guys to break down the defense the way they have in the past.
Wow, Bird and McHale played all 56 minutes. Oh what could have been, had Len Bias survived. I'd bet he'd have added at least 2 more years to each of their careers, and at least two more rings.1974 was a pretty good year. ED: Oh and of course 1987 was one of the most underrated epic series ever and included this ridiculous game:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198705100MIL.html
That’s about where I’m at as well. The Bucks were WAY better than the Celtics this year, have home court, and no crippling injuries (I’m surprised Brogdon is still out to be honest, but think he likely plays this round at some point).21% seems about right. The Bucks are really good, best point diff in the NBA by a huge margin, but the Celtics have a real, non-remote chance of winning.
If you think MaMo is good against Lopez, you should want him playing 30+ mins a game imo. 5 out lineups with shooting are the best way to play Lopez off the floor, which in turn is a way to cramp Giannis’ spacing.I like MaMo to guard Lopez or Mirotic, not particularly quick guys. They want to stay on the perimeter and won't expose MaMo defensively around the rim.
If Giannis plays 36mins then 10 physical mins from Semi & 26 mins from Horford.
Just for clarity, I never said MaMo was "good" against Lopez. I just don't think he will be exposed guarding a passive perimeter oriented BIG. MaMo is a terrible defensive player that rarely rotates around the rim to help his teammates. That's why his defensive numbers have been awful for two years running. Meanwhile, Baynes will guard Lopez, rotate better than MaMo and help Al with Giannis at the rim.If you think MaMo is good against Lopez, you should want him playing 30+ mins a game imo. 5 out lineups with shooting are the best way to play Lopez off the floor, which in turn is a way to cramp Giannis’ spacing.
I respectfully disagree with the bolded part.I'm just not in agreement that Horford can afford to be on Giannis all game. Is it worth it for Horford to be in early foul trouble? I agree with Horford being the best option, but I think only in key situations. I'd just end up doubling him and making others make shots.
Apparently it's about 2 weeks sooner than he was expected to be jogging again, when he gave his update a few days ago.Smart was jogging on a treadmill today per news reports. There is some hope that he might be able to make it back for the end of this next round though its probably overly optimistic.
These things never work. I’m sure he will force his way onto the court if they get down because he’s a hard bastard but count me out on the concept of healing two weeks ahead of scheduleApparently it's about 2 weeks sooner than he was expected to be jogging again, when he gave his update a few days ago.
Of I lived near a sports book, I'd put down $100 on the Cs and feel good about it.Celtics open as +240.
Morris didn't start any games in the 76ers or Bucks playoff series last season.Morris is going to play GA a lot. I can't see Brad wanting to get AL in foul trouble early. Wasn't Morris supposed to be this tough guy Big 3/Undersized 4 that was supposed to match up with the LeBrons and the Giannis' of the league in the playoffs?
IIRC, that's how Stevens played both Simmons and GA last season -- start with Morris on them, to body them up and make them work for theirs, and then use AL in key spots to get big stops.
So much for my memory.Morris didn't start any games in the 76ers or Bucks playoff series last season.
Starting or playing our worst defensive player on one of the best offensive players in the NBA is a recipe for disaster. Unless the game plan is for MaMo to just foul Giannis hard 6X.
My impression of MaMo’s defense is that he’s a decent 1:1 defensive player but not a good team/help defender.Morris didn't start any games in the 76ers or Bucks playoff series last season.
Starting or playing our worst defensive player on one of the best offensive players in the NBA is a recipe for disaster. Unless the game plan is for MaMo to just foul Giannis hard 6X.
Semi barely jumps (and never blocks shots) because all his energy is devoted to lateral footwork that keeps him in front of his opponent's trajectory off the dribble. Ojeleye has a rare combination of anticipation and lateral quickness that gives opposing big men fits. Ojeleye can't really jump (who's going to outjump Giannis anyway?), but he can get in front of a driver and cut off his forward path better than anyone else on the team, and he can usually do it without fouling. It's a narrow defensive skillset, but a very helpful one against ballhandlers like Antetokounpo.What's the nature of the matchup advantage that makes Semi able to contain Giannis better than most? Is it just his strength being able to resist being backed down in the post? It's surely not footspeed and quickness, nor blocking ability at the rim. I just want to understand if I should be rooting for him to come in and be a "Giannis-banger" to tire him out for 10-15 per night, like how we used Baynes and Monroe against Embiid last year, or if he's too much of a black hole to see more than rare spot duty.
MaMo had league best numbers versus LBJ in 2015 or 2016 IIRC. That was a long time ago.Whatever happened to the MaMo that was advertised as the league's best defender against LeBron? Was that all post-hoc approval for Ainge's haul in return for one year of Avery Bradley?
Or is it possible that Morris' best defense is played against a lead power forward whose game (layups, dunks, kick-outs and drop-offs) is predicated on starting with the dribble?
I think we'll see lots of Morris on the floor, SoSH's despair notwithstanding, and that's the best rationalization I can concoct.
Agreed, I do think MaMo's knee has been barking the 2nd half of the season (he's been wrapping it on the sidelines). He has probably played through it since he's playing for a contract. PLUS he's Old School and would play through pain. It could be the reason for his Jekyll and Hyde season. The week off will help.MaMo had league best numbers versus LBJ in 2015 or 2016 IIRC. That was a long time ago.
My impression is that either because of age or injury he's a step slower defensively and also isn't that keen on contact.
Without any evidence to back this up, I do think he's been playing through some injuries in the second half of the season.
Plus, in the 7 game playoff series against Milwaukee, Semi played an average of 18 minutes. Three games he logged over 20 minutes, with one game at 31 and another at 29.Morris is going to play GA a lot. I can't see Brad wanting to get AL in foul trouble early. Wasn't Morris supposed to be this tough guy Big 3/Undersized 4 that was supposed to match up with the LeBrons and the Giannis' of the league in the playoffs?
IIRC, that's how Stevens played both Simmons and GA last season -- start with Morris on them, to body them up and make them work for theirs, and then use AL in key spots to get big stops.
If that happens, Giannis is going to start guarding Kyrie. That would be so incredibly awesome.I say C's in 6 for no reason at all other than it feels right. I'd also like to predict that Kyrie will out-Dame Dame in Milwaukee for kicks and all hell will break loose.
Would also be a big win for the Celtics: you get Giannis away from the hoop, and he’s also likely to lose Kyrie off-ball.If that happens, Giannis is going to start guarding Kyrie. That would be so incredibly awesome.
Here are some stats: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/no-one-can-stop-giannis-celtics-have-secret-weapon.Plus, in the 7 game playoff series against Milwaukee, Semi played an average of 18 minutes. Three games he logged over 20 minutes, with one game at 31 and another at 29.
I don’t know how many of these minutes were against Antetokounmpo, but I think quite a few.
Let”s see this year what role Semi plays.
Probably not until the first round is wrapped upAnyone know when we get a schedule?
Fantastic. Hopefully Bruins Saturday night, followed by Celtics at 1pm on Sunday. Tough for the home crowd to be a massive factor during a noon start locally.Game 1 is confirmed for Sunday at 1:00 on ABC.
Middleton hit 61% from 3PT in the series against us last year. So Bledsoe will likely be better than last year, but Middleton likely ain't shooting that again either.Giannis will get his, no one is stopping him. The difference in the series is limiting Bledsoe and Middleton. Bledsoe was a disaster last year and that probably won't happen again this year. Middleton seems to always kill us but this year in 3 games he was actually -10.8 and 17.3 ppg which is a point lower than his average. This is where missing Smart will hurt the most. I like the Bucks in 6 or 7.
This is great news. You can't ask for a better day/start time then early afternoon on a Sunday to catch a home favorite sleeping and the crowd not yet into the series. We are +7.5 which I like here in our best shot to steal a road win imo.Game 1 is confirmed for Sunday at 1:00 on ABC.
Houston would still have to win tonight too, which is not guaranteed, with Capela ailing and the Jazz potentially figuring some stuff out defensively. For all we know, we could still have two Game 7s Sunday (UTA@HOU and LAC@GS) after the Celtics game.GS-Houston: If GS wins tonight, Game 1 is Sunday at 3:30
I’ll go out on a limb and say that we won’t be getting that 2nd game 7Houston would still have to win tonight too, which is not guaranteed, with Capela ailing and the Jazz potentially figuring some stuff out defensively. For all we know, we could still have two Game 7s Sunday (UTA@HOU and LAC@GS) after the Celtics game.
Tonight, per Vegas, HOU -8, GS -14.5.
I think we will win G1I actually took +7.5, the money line +275, and a parlay of +7.5 and under 224 for Game 1. Hopefully we can steal one of the first two.
Cross posting...
Could have been worse. Celtics game 2 will probably start at 8 and Bruins will be at 7, so only 1 period of overlap there.Cross posting...
Bruins/Celtics are scheduled for the same nights
Tuesday 4/30-Bruins game 3,Celtics game 2
Monday 5/6- Bruins game 6, Celtics game 4
Wednesday 5/8- Bruins game 7, Celtics game 5
Yup, this is why the Celtics set a team record for 3-point attempts in the first meeting. Lopez concedes that shot in the Bucks' base scheme, and the Celtics shooters are too good to not let it fly. IIRC, the Celtics had some quote after the game about how they'd be happy to jack 3s every possession if the looks were going to be that high-quality.Here is some video on how Lopez plays defense in MIL's system:
Source: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/celtics-bucks-preview-kyrie-vs-giannis-major-defensive-decisions-and-why-boston-looks-like-a-great-value-bet/
edit: the cbssports data engineer "ran 10,000 simulations for this series and concluded "it's a coin-slip series." interesting.