Walden seems to have entered "Do not play on consecutive nights" territory along with Barnes:
4 app, 4 IP, 8 H (2 HR), 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K,
4 app, 4 IP, 8 H (2 HR), 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K,
Well, the numbers don't bear out your theory. Unless you solely look at W-L pct.I'm not sure how to break all this stuff down... but the Sox bullpen had a very good first month. They've at least seemed to be absolute garbage since then.......
Split | W | L | W-L% | ERA | G | GF | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | BF | WHIP | SO9 | SO/W |
April/MarGR | 8 | 3 | .727 | 4.47 | 103 | 30 | 8 | 110.2 | 98 | 60 | 55 | 18 | 52 | 127 | 478 | 1.355 | 10.3 | 2.44 |
MayGR | 7 | 4 | .636 | 3.67 | 87 | 27 | 4 | 105.1 | 87 | 45 | 43 | 11 | 42 | 119 | 446 | 1.225 | 10.2 | 2.83 |
JuneGR | 6 | 5 | .545 | 4.33 | 98 | 25 | 5 | 108.0 | 106 | 56 | 52 | 15 | 50 | 142 | 482 | 1.444 | 11.8 | 2.84 |
Maybe because blown saves is a bullshit stat? Can't argue that it's good for bullpens to give up leads but their 17 blown saves have resulted in only 9 losses. So right away, the total seems less dramatic in context. Because blown saves can happen prior to the 9th inning, giving up a lead is not a permanent issue if the offense has opportunity to come back and re-take the lead, which they have in 8 cases. Just to contrast the 2019 team's 6-9 record in games with blown saves, the 2018 team was 12-7 in the 19 games in which a blown save was recorded. In other words, relievers, even good ones, spit the bit sometimes. And often, they do it while the offense still has opportunity to turn things around again.I don't understand how "data" can make 17 blown saves (2nd worst in baseball) look good.
League average is 10.
51.5% of Red Sox save opportunities have been converted (2nd worst in baseball).
League average is 65.9%
I know this has been an ongoing discussion (saves / blown saves, etc.) but my lying eyes sure as hell tells me this bullpen sucks, and it's not just a few bad outings.
Wow. That's sort of shocking to see. So the BP is not as bad as it seems, but yeah... it's still at this point, clearly not good enough to get the team to where it needs to be. I still don't think Kimbrell would have made much difference (maybe 2 games at this point.. ? obviously hard to prove in any way) but clearly adding a strong reliever would help. So now I'm tending towards believing it's BP exhaustion and overwork. So that shifts the burden back to our starters and even Sale not going deep enough into games to preserve freshness in the BP armsWell, the numbers don't bear out your theory. Unless you solely look at W-L pct.
Split W L W-L% ERA G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO BF WHIP SO9 SO/W April/MarGR 8 3 .727 4.47 103 30 8 110.2 98 60 55 18 52 127 478 1.355 10.3 2.44 MayGR 7 4 .636 3.67 87 27 4 105.1 87 45 43 11 42 119 446 1.225 10.2 2.83 JuneGR 6 5 .545 4.33 98 25 5 108.0 106 56 52 15 50 142 482 1.444 11.8 2.84
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/30/2019.
Brewer in June: 12 games, 0.73 era, 12.1 ip, 10 hits, 2 r, 1 er, 12bb/13k, WHIP of 1.78. He has faced 58 batters in that period, he has given up 0 extra base hits. Hitters are slashing .227/.386/.227.Brewer featured some sharp breaking stuff today and was effective. As for the rest, WTDS.
Or the "he's never really been that good, had a nice first two months, and is now regressing to the mean" territory.Walden seems to have entered "Do not play on consecutive nights" territory along with Barnes:
4 app, 4 IP, 8 H (2 HR), 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K,
The blown save/save % stats may not be good, but it's still an apples-to-apples comparison among all bullpens in MLB. They all have the stat playing by the same rules. Nobody can possibly make the case that - from the perspective of evaluating a bullpen - being among the very worst teams in baseball in terms of blown saves (which means you give up leads late in games) and save percentage (which means you give them up at a higher rate than other teams) is anything but bad.Maybe because blown saves is a bullshit stat? Can't argue that it's good for bullpens to give up leads but their 17 blown saves have resulted in only 9 losses. So right away, the total seems less dramatic in context. Because blown saves can happen prior to the 9th inning, giving up a lead is not a permanent issue if the offense has opportunity to come back and re-take the lead, which they have in 8 cases. Just to contrast the 2019 team's 6-9 record in games with blown saves, the 2018 team was 12-7 in the 19 games in which a blown save was recorded. In other words, relievers, even good ones, spit the bit sometimes. And often, they do it while the offense still has opportunity to turn things around again.
Save percentage is just as bullshit because it count blown saves that are effectively blown holds (the guy giving up the lead was never expected to finish the game) but does not account for holds. How about saves+holds/saves+holds+blown saves instead? (17+46)/(17+46+17)=78.75% League average = 85.14%. Still below average but not nearly as dramatically.
The bullpen has had some bad stretches. It's not a disaster. Or at least, they alone are not responsible for team's middling record.
Makes sense: no team would even trade a bag of balls for him. Maybe some used pine tar in the shape of a broken bat. Maybe. Boston may have to cover shipping and handling.Per source, Tyler Thornburg has refused assignment to minors. Trending toward being released by Red Sox
--Rob Bradford
https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1148739186608017408
A truly shocking development. They shouldn’t have even bothered tendering him a contract last off-season and saved whatever sum that was toward more margin of error on the luxury tax threshold.Per source, Tyler Thornburg has refused assignment to minors. Trending toward being released by Red Sox
--Rob Bradford
https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1148739186608017408
Agreed. He's been an absolute disaster. Wish they had assets to get a real closer. If only there was someone on the market after free agency began that fit the description...A truly shocking development. They shouldn’t have even bothered tendering him a contract last off-season and saved whatever sum that was toward more margin of error on the luxury tax threshold.
Please don’t say Kimbrel.Agreed. He's been an absolute disaster. Wish they had assets to get a real closer. If only there was someone on the market after free agency began that fit the description...
He really thinks a MLB team is going to hand him the ball? He is toast.Per source, Tyler Thornburg has refused assignment to minors. Trending toward being released by Red Sox
--Rob Bradford
https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1148739186608017408
Another MLB team will probably offer him a minor league contract. He gets paid either way.He really thinks a MLB team is going to hand him the ball? He is toast.
He really thinks a MLB team is going to hand him the ball? He is toast.
Yeah, he's in a win-win position. Boston still has to pay out the remainder of his contract and if he gets a new deal, well it's just more money. If not, he gets to rest and rehab and work on getting his stuff back in the hopes of pitching his way onto a club or at least a MiLB deal next spring. Does he have kids? He may be happy to spend the time with them.Another MLB team will probably offer him a minor league contract. He gets paid either way.
Is it more money for him? I thought if you're released by one team (who pays your full salary) and sign with another (typically for league minimum), your original team is credited for the salary paid by the new team. Is that only on paper or for luxury tax purposes? I had always assumed that the player doesn't get more money, just a new environment.Yeah, he's in a win-win position. Boston still has to pay out the remainder of his contract and if he gets a new deal, well it's just more money. If not, he gets to rest and rehab and work on getting his stuff back in the hopes of pitching his way onto a club or at least a MiLB deal next spring. Does he have kids? He may be happy to spend the time with them.
Maybe if it's a ML deal, but I don't think it counts if it's MiLB. I could be wrong, though.Is it more money for him? I thought if you're released by one team (who pays your full salary) and sign with another (typically for league minimum), your original team is credited for the salary paid by the new team. Is that only on paper or for luxury tax purposes? I had always assumed that the player doesn't get more money, just a new environment.
As an example, the Red Sox are still paying Pablo Sandoval's contract...except for the ~$550K the Giants are paying. But Sandoval's total salary is still the $18M the original contract stipulated.
Britton was my first choice, but he would have had to be in place of Eovaldi.Please don’t say Kimbrel.
A minor league deal is unlikely to be all that much money though. At least in the sense of whether it is a significant factor in a player's decision to decline an outright assignment and opt for free agency. I'm just not picturing a player looking at a choice of free agency versus Pawtucket and choosing free agency because he can get paid slightly more to play for Toledo or Albuquerque. He's doing it anticipating he will play for the Tigers or the Rockies.Maybe if it's a ML deal, but I don't think it counts if it's MiLB. I could be wrong, though.
The Sox won the World Series since that trade; I therefore put it to bed. Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater though, never get over that one.It's a small consolation (to me) that Travis Shaw weirdly seems to have turned into a pumpkin this season. Still: one of the worst trades in recent memory. Adios TT.
Entirely possible. He may also not want to pitch for the Boston organization any longer. Some credit his issues to Farrell's throwing program but it may just be that he doesn't like the way they are handling him and prefers to pitch for another organization, whether at the ML level or below. Not going to guess at reading his mind, but it's not like the organization hasn't had some issues with pitcher health these last few years and maybe it's developing a bad reputation for pitchers who are trying to come back from injuries like his. Just spitballing there, though.A minor league deal is unlikely to be all that much money though. At least in the sense of whether it is a significant factor in a player's decision to decline an outright assignment and opt for free agency. I'm just not picturing a player looking at a choice of free agency versus Pawtucket and choosing free agency because he can get paid slightly more to play for Toledo or Albuquerque. He's doing it anticipating he will play for the Tigers or the Rockies.
Oh for sure. It may not even be anything the Sox did or didn't do. He may just want a change for the sake of change. Few players elect to accept an outright assignment when given the choice. Most probably do so because they feel they can contribute somewhere else at the big league level. Or they have no desire to go back to riding busses rather than flying charters.Entirely possible. He may also not want to pitch for the Boston organization any longer. Some credit his issues to Farrell's throwing program but it may just be that he doesn't like the way they are handling him and prefers to pitch for another organization, whether at the ML level or below. Not going to guess at reading his mind, but it's not like the organization hasn't had some issues with pitcher health these last few years and maybe it's developing a bad reputation for pitchers who are trying to come back from injuries like his. Just spitballing there, though.
If you can find me a franchise that doesn't have pitchers who get injured, I'll eat my shoe. And not in a one year sample, a good 4-5 year run where their injury rate is dramatically lower than other teams.Entirely possible. He may also not want to pitch for the Boston organization any longer. Some credit his issues to Farrell's throwing program but it may just be that he doesn't like the way they are handling him and prefers to pitch for another organization, whether at the ML level or below. Not going to guess at reading his mind, but it's not like the organization hasn't had some issues with pitcher health these last few years and maybe it's developing a bad reputation for pitchers who are trying to come back from injuries like his. Just spitballing there, though.
I am doubting that he is able to pitch in the majors ever again, although he is only 30. His rehab stint yielded a WHIP of almost 2.5 and and ERA over 12. Big swing and a miss on that one.Red Sox officially released Tyler Thornburg. I said that they shouldn't even have re-signed him this season to his TOS. Hope he is able to latch on somewhere else.
https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1149009673737134083
The track record of players coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is mixed at best. Even if he's "healthy", there's a good chance he'll never again be the pitcher he was or even an effective pitcher at all. It's a shame, because he had potential.Perhaps he is still injured?
I wouldn't totally write him off yet, but his time was certainly up here
TOS is interesting because you can find a lot of physicians claiming it's not even a real thing and that people use diagnose it to describe the unknown (Fultz).The track record of players coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is mixed at best. Even if he's "healthy", there's a good chance he'll never again be the pitcher he was or even an effective pitcher at all. It's a shame, because he had potential.
Now what about the bullpen?
Dombrowski was quick to remind reporters the Red Sox will be using Nate Eovaldi in relief.
“For some reason people seem to, like, not grasp onto that. He’s a big addition for us,” he said.
Theoretically, sure. Eovaldi is a starter with primo stuff that should translate well to the bullpen. But he has not appeared in a game in three months because of elbow surgery and has only four games of relief experience since 2012.
It’s not a lock Eovaldi can stay healthy or be a successful reliever. He is scheduled to face hitters on Monday afternoon and could appear in a minor league game on Wednesday or Thursday before returning to the major league roster.
Can Eovaldi be sharp on that timetable? Perhaps. But the Sox should be more proactive than hoping a starter can come off the injured list and take on a new role in the heat of the pennant race.
I couldn't find it again when I looked later but Jason Martinez (the Roster Resource guy) wrote somewhere after the Cashner deal that Boston is over $245M now, so zero wiggle room left there.clear that DD is likely stuck hoping that all the internal improvements work out. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/07/13/onball/g94d2BsRmMAlhSQXmy1adJ/story.html
Unless they find a trade where salary is covered. But more than likely done yes.I couldn't find it again when I looked later but Jason Martinez (the Roster Resource guy) wrote somewhere after the Cashner deal that Boston is over $245M now, so zero wiggle room left there.
Even without knowing the exact figures, it seems obvious given the way the Cashner deal was structured (Orioles sending cash to partially cover his remaining salary) that the Sox are right up against it. They did the same thing when they acquired Pearce last year from the Jays and Kinsler from the Angels, and ended up just over the secondary threshold (Cot's says less than $1M). The couple million in savings having the cash thrown in is probably something a team well below the cap wouldn't even worry about.I couldn't find it again when I looked later but Jason Martinez (the Roster Resource guy) wrote somewhere after the Cashner deal that Boston is over $245M now, so zero wiggle room left there.
I just looked over at rosterresouce.com. The updated luxury tax payroll (including Cashner) number for the Sox is $243,383,027.I couldn't find it again when I looked later but Jason Martinez (the Roster Resource guy) wrote somewhere after the Cashner deal that Boston is over $245M now, so zero wiggle room left there.
Strange, maybe that's why I couldn't find the Martinez quote again, because he assumed BOS was taking on Cashner's full salary (?).I just looked over at rosterresouce.com. The updated luxury tax payroll (including Cashner) number for the Sox is $243,383,027.
Likely yes. If accurate DD has another move available.Strange, maybe that's why I couldn't find the Martinez quote again, because he assumed BOS was taking on Cashner's full salary (?).