Sounds like you did the hot take.when does Felger start his hot take? since the Nets trade, the only non-lottery draft picks to pan out into legit NBA players are Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier
I'll hang up and listen
Sounds like you did the hot take.when does Felger start his hot take? since the Nets trade, the only non-lottery draft picks to pan out into legit NBA players are Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier
I'll hang up and listen
I'd look at it the reverse way - since the Nets trade, the Celtics have basically nailed all of their (relatively few) lottery picks, which is about as good as you can hope for given that non-lottery picks are always a crapshoot.when does Felger start his hot take? since the Nets trade, the only non-lottery draft picks to pan out into legit NBA players are Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier
I'll hang up and listen
Drafting is hard, but I think you can point to Danny not picking much in the way of high end talent. He's been GM for over 15 years now and has drafted one player that made an all star game (unless I'm missing someone besides Rondo).Probably not too early on Semi I'm gonna say, but he's a 2nd round pick, so whatever.
But generally, yes, drafting is hard. Name a good drafter. Most of their picks going forward are gonna be busts.
Yes but if you go through his drafts, most of his non-Nets draft picks have been in the teens or lower.Drafting is hard, but I think you can point to Danny not picking much in the way of high end talent. He's been GM for over 15 years now and has drafted one player that made an all star game (unless I'm missing someone besides Rondo).
Brown and Tatum could turn that around in a few years though.
And that was before drafting Tatum and Brown, whose stories are far from over. It’s crazy how much of drafting success comes from a couple guys—it’s a lot closer to VC than to private equity.Several years ago someone here did an pretty exhaustive analysis and came to the conclusion that Danny is an average drafter. Nothing since has changed that for me. His strength is in deal-making, at which he generally excels.
Well that Jokic guy taken at #41 can play a little. So can Capela (#25), Bogdanovic (#27), G. Harris (#19) J. Harris (#33) and Dinwiddie (#38)--all taken after James Young.The 2014 draft pool was terrible. Marcus Smart isn't a super result from a #6 pick in general, but that year, Danny couldn't have done much better.
"Then the list gets even worse! The league only valued 2 of Danny's non-lottery picks with large contracts!"Marcus Smart was the #6 overall pick, he’s not “non-lottery.”
Most non-lottery picks don’t amount to much.
Why the arbitrary cutoff of the Nets trade?
It’s way too early for a lot of recent picks like Robert Williams, Grant Williams, even Semi Ojeleye.
What do we care about what Felger thinks?
Just an odd post.
Drafting is hard, but I think you can point to Danny not picking much in the way of high end talent. He's been GM for over 15 years now and has drafted one player that made an all star game (unless I'm missing someone besides Rondo).
Brown and Tatum could turn that around in a few years though.
"Then why collect all those drafts when you can't pick good players!"Several years ago someone here did an pretty exhaustive analysis and came to the conclusion that Danny is an average drafter. Nothing since has changed that for me. His strength is in deal-making, at which he generally excels.
(ok, that's all i got..i'm done)Sounds like you did the hot take.
Well, it's not really fair to expect him to take a guy the league valued at #41 at #6. Sometimes an under the radar guy just blows up.Well that Jokic guy taken at #41 can oplay a little. So can Capela (#25), Bogdanovic (#27), Harris (#19) Harris (#33) and Dinwiddie (#38)--all taken after James Young.
I think that was me. He came in a bit above average, but close enough that it wasn't discernible from variance to me. Tatum is a pretty big hit since then (given he dodged Fultz), while Brown remains a TBD. He hasn't done very well with picks in the teens and beyond, but again, pretty much nobody other than the Spurs has reliably developed talent at those picks. He's bled some value there probably however.Several years ago someone here did an pretty exhaustive analysis and came to the conclusion that Danny is an average drafter. Nothing since has changed that for me. His strength is in deal-making, at which he generally excels.
Presti had a nice run with some lottery picks and IbakaProbably not too early on Semi I'm gonna say, but he's a 2nd round pick, so whatever.
But generally, yes, drafting is hard. Name a good drafter. Most of their picks going forward are gonna be busts.
Yes, whatever Denver has been doing...let's copy that. They seem to hit on every pick.Presti had a nice run with some lottery picks and Ibaka
I like what Denver has been doing recently
Yes, I think Smart was the right pick at #6. He's a very good player. I was responding to your initial statement that the 2014 draft pool was terrible, and I thought you were referring to the entire pool, not just the plausible choices at #6.Well, it's not really fair to expect him to take a guy the league valued at #41 at #6. Sometimes an under the radar guy just blows up.
As for the James Young pick...that was bad. I was all over Gary Harris there.
If you had to predict, how do you think his picks this year will pan out? Personally I'm not so impressed with his first round picks but am surprised at the potential that he has been able to extract from the second round ... and beyond.I think that was me. He came in a bit above average, but close enough that it wasn't discernible from variance to me. Tatum is a pretty big hit since then (given he dodged Fultz), while Brown remains a TBD. He hasn't done very well with picks in the teens and beyond, but again, pretty much nobody other than the Spurs has reliably developed talent at those picks. He's bled some value there probably however.
I could see this happening later on, if Waters and Fall both impress in camp.Celticsblog floated the idea that they could convert Waters’ two-way contract into the full roster spot vacated by Yabu and then hand Tacko a two-way with the spot that frees up. Does that sound like a better way of keeping Tacko than using Yabu’s spot?
It seems to me that there are drafting mistakes that, even though egregious, don't matter that much in the long run. There are other mistakes that are franchise-altering. Taking Antoine Walker instead of Kobe Bryant in 1996 looks perfectly reasonable, even today. But it was franchise altering. In my view the same holds true for taking Olynyk instead of Giannis in 2013. Sure Olynyk is a decent NBA player, but Giannis is a superstar.Toronto has hit with Siakam, Anunoby and Delon Wright of late, all in the 20's. Milwaukee had a winner with Giannis at 15, but hasn't done well otherwise with their firsts. Their seconds have come up with Brogdon, McCaw, Sindarius Thornwell and Norman Powell though.
Someone somewhere must have done some analysis of who the good drafters are.
I did this a few years back, and it was basically the Spurs, and everyone else. I may refresh this at some point, though it's always a pain to sort out who really drafted who given how the NBA handles draft day trades.Toronto has hit with Siakam, Anunoby and Delon Wright of late, all in the 20's. Milwaukee had a winner with Giannis at 15, but hasn't done well otherwise with their firsts. Their seconds have come up with Brogdon, McCaw, Sindarius Thornwell and Norman Powell though.
Someone somewhere must have done some analysis of who the good drafters are.
I'm not a draftnik, but I'm a big fan of Grant Williams in a rich man's PJ Tucker sort of way. I'm not a fan of the Romeo pick. I don't much value HS pedigree, and he seems like a "low feel" guy. Edwards could be good, but tough to read much into summer league from a guy like him.If you had to predict, how do you think his picks this year will pan out? Personally I'm not so impressed with his first round picks but am surprised at the potential that he has been able to extract from the second round ... and beyond.
Are we citing Norm Powell and Thornwell as evidence of Milwaukee's prowess in talent evaluation? The Bucks sold Thornwell to the Clips, who just waived him. Powell was thrown into the reprehensible Greivis Vasquez trade with the Raptors. That's like patting Detroit on the back for drafting Middleton.Toronto has hit with Siakam, Anunoby and Delon Wright of late, all in the 20's. Milwaukee had a winner with Giannis at 15, but hasn't done well otherwise with their firsts. Their seconds have come up with Brogdon, McCaw, Sindarius Thornwell and Norman Powell though.
Someone somewhere must have done some analysis of who the good drafters are.
If you were going to do this, I think the http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-history/all/1/all/ site catalogs the guys that were actually picked by the teams.I did this a few years back, and it was basically the Spurs, and everyone else. I may refresh this at some point, though it's always a pain to sort out who really drafted who given how the NBA handles draft day trades.
Thanks. That's very helpful. I've previously done it based on what team a rookie played their first game for, which is close, but not quite the same.If you were going to do this, I think the http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-history/all/1/all/ site catalogs the guys that were actually picked by the teams.
Powell was a rotation guy for the NBA champs, so that's a pretty good outcome imo. Thornwell might have been a stretch, but he's at least playing in the League, I thought he looked okay for the Clips last year. Again, these are second round picks, so the bar is low.Are we citing Norm Powell and Thornwell as evidence of Milwaukee's prowess in talent evaluation? The Bucks sold Thornwell to the Clips, who just waived him. Powell was thrown into the reprehensible Greivis Vasquez trade with the Raptors. That's like patting Detroit on the back for drafting Middleton.
The Celtics made tons of drafting mistakes in the 90's, but that one wasn't their fault. Bryant was threatening (plausibly) to go play in Italy if he didn't get to the Lakers.It seems to me that there are drafting mistakes that, even though egregious, don't matter that much in the long run. There are other mistakes that are franchise-altering. Taking Antoine Walker instead of Kobe Bryant in 1996 looks perfectly reasonable, even today. But it was franchise altering. In my view the same holds true for taking Olynyk instead of Giannis in 2013. Sure Olynyk is a decent NBA player, but Giannis is a superstar.
Tacko will never be springy. I do think Grant can do some of the Horford stuff on offense.I really like the Grant Wiliams as a rich man's PJ Tucker comp. GW feels like a unique player, that enjoys working on his body/game/3pt shooting. He's got the girth/strength/BBIQ/overall size to handle switches on to BIGs. But see him as a Swing/4/PF/big wing. If I squint I can envision him doing a lot of what Al Horford did on offense (please Brad don't make Grant a small ball 5). The Celtics will get the most out of GW if he is paired up with a long/springy/shot blocking 5. Myles Turner pipe dream or Nerlens Noel on Dec 15th (for a 2nd rounder) or TL for the time being or maybe Tacko eventually.
So call them understandable mistakes, whatever. The fact is that they were franchise-altering decisions. Bryant has since said publicly that he enjoyed his Boston workout and would have signed here in 1996. Charlotte is the team he didn't want to play for, and maybe someone in the Boston front office should have figured that out.The Celtics made tons of drafting mistakes in the 90's, but that one wasn't their fault. Bryant was threatening (plausibly) to go play in Italy if he didn't get to the Lakers.
Calling Olynyk over Giannis a huge mistake just seems like revisionist history. Giannis was considered a very risky play leading up to that draft.
yea. I agree...but Tacko only needs Greg Kite-springiness to be a shot-blocking 5Tacko will never be springy. I do think Grant can do some of the Horford stuff on offense.
This is such a hot take. Please point me to one other team that hasn't "missed" on a similar number of players. With Giannis in particular half the league passed on him - and at least Olynyk provided more value to the Celtics than, say, Shabazz Muhammad (who was taken right after Olynyk and before Giannis) did for Minny.So call them understandable mistakes, whatever. The fact is that they were franchise-altering decisions. Bryant has since said publicly that he enjoyed his Boston workout and would have signed here in 1996. Charlotte is the team he didn't want to play for, and maybe someone in the Boston front office should have figured that out.
In 2013 both Ainges made multiple trips to Greece to watch Giannis play. You could see even then that he was an enthusiastic kid with a huge smile who loved to play. Sure it was a risk, but in my viewe one worth taking in the late lottery.
When you evaluate drafts its always revisionist history, since with a few exceptions at the top (e.g. LeBron types), it's often two years or more before "upside" plays itself out. Sometimes you lose. I would have taken Dragan Bender over Jaylen Brown (and today I would take Sabonis over either of them). So three years later I look silly----but no sillier than Ainge did when he renounced the tream's rights in Olynyk to clear cap space for Hayward.
DA has been pretty upfront about Giannis and said that while he liked him he never in a million years envisioned what Giannis turned into. If you think that's a failure you're certainly entitled to your opinion but the Cs needed assets for two reasons: (i) to get better assets back and (ii) to lure FAs to Boston. I don't see KO as a mark against DA but maybe I'm an easy grader.In 2013 both Ainges made multiple trips to Greece to watch Giannis play. You could see even then that he was an enthusiastic kid with a huge smile who loved to play. Sure it was a risk, but in my viewe one worth taking in the late lottery.
I think his point is that Powell quickly ended up on another team, so MIL shouldn't get points for drafting him.Powell was a rotation guy for the NBA champs, so that's a pretty good outcome imo. Thornwell might have been a stretch, but he's at least playing in the League, I thought he looked okay for the Clips last year. Again, these are second round picks, so the bar is low.
Call it a "hot take" if you like, but of the 14 general managers who passed on Giannis only Ainge, Presti (who took Steven Adams) and Lindsey (who passed on Giannis but snagged Gobert at #27) still have NBA jobs. The others have all been fired.This is such a hot take. Please point me to one other team that hasn't "missed" on a similar number of players. With Giannis in particular half the league passed on him - and at least Olynyk provided more value to the Celtics than, say, Shabazz Muhammad (who was taken right after Olynyk and before Giannis) did for Minny.
Good breakdown on Langford's shot and some mechanical issues here: https://hoosierstateofmind.com/2019/07/11/41024/I'll go on record to state that I don't like the Langford pick; I would have selected Doumbouya. Maybe three years from now Langford will be an all-star and Doumbouya will be playing Pro A in Strasbourg or Dijon, but I would still take that risk.
Bryant is savvy and experienced in the public domain and therefore I can assume:So call them understandable mistakes, whatever. The fact is that they were franchise-altering decisions. Bryant has since said publicly that he enjoyed his Boston workout and would have signed here in 1996. Charlotte is the team he didn't want to play for, and maybe someone in the Boston front office should have figured that out.
Sure, maybe Kobe was lying. You don't know and neither do I. And if they knew he wanted to be a Laker, they could have drafted him anyway, and traded him for Vlade Divac, just as Charlotte did. In either case you wind up with a player better than Walker, whom Ainge ignominiously dumped a few years later for Jiri Welsch and a crippled Raef LaFrentz with 6 years and $70M left on his deal.Bryant is savvy and experienced in the public domain and therefore I can assume:
1. OF COURSE he would say after the fact that he "would have signed here in 1996." Doesn't make it true whatsoever
2. Your conclusion that "the Boston front office should have figured that out" is not realistic or logical. False premise.
A few years being 7 years, 3 All-Star appearances and an ECF run later. Walker from that point was a more valuable player than Divac, especially for a terrible rebuilding teamSure, maybe Kobe was lying. You don't know and neither do I. And if they knew he wanted to be a Laker, they could have drafted him anyway, and traded him for Vlade Divac, just as Charlotte did. In either case you wind up with a player better than Walker, whom Ainge ignominiously dumped a few years later for Jiri Welsch and a crippled Raef LaFrentz with 6 years and $70M left on his deal.
Sure, but arguing that you can make that determination better than the people who were actually involved is just silly. They talked to him, they decided he probably wasn't going to sign, they moved on. Also Kobe is a serial liar and dirtbag, so taking anything he says at face value is a joke.Vlade was also an all-star. But the real question is whether or not Kobe would have stayed.
This isn't new. There were pics posted in the Romeo thread about this a week and half ago and comments in other threads since then.Uh-oh....This is the first time hearing this, Romeo working on a hitch with his shot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwPbU8pfj9E
According to a league source the Celtics and 2nd round pick Carsen Edwards have come to terms on a guaranteed contract.
YES!
thanks. somehow missed itThis isn't new. There were pics posted in the Romeo thread about this a week and half ago and comments in other threads since then.