So in the Hayward thread, radsoxfan and I had a brief exchange on whether our end-of-rotation players were, collectively, a liability. This is a tough question to answer, because any deep-bencher is going to look bad by comparison to NBA starters. Let's compare.
So, Hayward was our #4 non-big, arguably #5. With BW as the clear #6 non-big, Hayward's absence presses our 7-9 on that list into service: Semi, Grant and Langford.
Here are the #7-9 non-bigs (so excluding anyone with >50% minutes at Center) on the other top contenders, with VORP numbers attached, SSS caveat notwithstanding. This should be a decent comparison of "deep bench" (just outside playoff rotation or fringe playoff rotation), and adequacy relative to who they'll be taking the floor against. N.B. this has nothing to say about particular matchups, fitness for a particular purpose, health, etc.
Format:
- Position Name, Mins/G (VORP, PER).
All numbers are regular season. Remember PER has 15 as a league average.
Milwaukee: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude R. Lopez & B. Lopez, then George Hill (backup PG) as #6.
7: SG/SF Pat Connaughton, 18.6 (0.8, 11.5)
8: SF Kyle Korver, 16.6 (0.5, 11.3)
9: PF Ersan Ilyasova, 15.7 (0.6, 14.9)
A very veteran squad for Deep Bench.
Toronto: 8 players with >10 starts, exclude Ibaka, Marc Gasol & Chris Boucher, then SG Norman Powell #5, SF Patrick McCaw #6.
7: SF/PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 18.7 (0.6, 15.1)
8: SG/SF Terence Davis, 16.8 (0.8, 13.8)
9: PG/SG Matt Thomas, 10.7 (0.3, 13.3) N.B. Rookie
Two 3/4 year vets with ~6 FGA/gm, and a rookie who got 440 minutes (compare Grant Williams: 1043, Romeo Langford: 370).
Miami: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude Olynyk and Meyers Leonard (injured as of February); also exclude Justice Winslow (injured all season), and Bam Adebayo (57% PF, 43% C regular season, but 90% C in playoffs). That puts their non-big lineup at Butler, Dragic, Herro, Robinson, Nunn (starter all season, but some personal incidents and maybe an injury or illness lately), and Jae Crowder at #6. Crowder has lately started in Nunn's place, but might get bumped back down if Nunn is truly back for the Milwaukee series.
7: SG Andre Iguodala, 19.9 (0.2, 10.5)
8: SF/SG Derrick Jones, 23.3 (1.0, 14.9)
9: PF Chris Silva, 7.9 (0.0, 17.3)
Despite having way more regular-season minutes, Derrick Jones has been relegated to spot duty in the playoffs while Crowder (4 starts, 25.5 mpg, might revert to bench) and Iguodala (26.8 mpg, mostly there for D) have seen roles much greater than their regular-season contributions. Part of that is Iguodala's injury that only let him begin his season in February; Crowder was traded to Miami at the deadline but has been at near-starter minutes all season. The biggest difference is that in the Pacers series, Miami has largely thrown aside Derrick Jones, and hardly played Olynyk at all.
Lakers: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, count AD as a PF. You have SG Avery Bradley as #6.
7: PG Alex Caruso, 18.4 (0.5, 10.8)
8: PG Rajon Rondo, 20.5 (0.2, 12.4) N.B. opted out of bubble
8: PG Quinn Cook, 11.5 (-0.2, 10.0)
9: SF/SG Troy Daniels, 11.1 (0.0, 9.0) N.B. traded to Denver at deadline
Caruso is in a role that's roughly as big as Hayward, and from there it's a bunch of dreck they don't trust. The Lakers have 2 players at 35mpg, 8 who are between 18 and 25.5 mpg, and then not a lot of true deep-bench minutes.
Clippers: 8 players with >10 starts, exclude Harrell and Zubac, but we gotta add in Lou Will because he leads the team in minutes despite only 8 starts. Regardless of starts, I'd put their non-bigs ordered as Kawhi, George, Morris, Beverly, Lou Will, Shamet. Patrick Patterson began the year as a starter (18 starts) but gradually fell out, and now after the Marcus Morris trade gets only very occasional minutes. With Beverley's injury, Reggie Jackson has temporarily entered the playoff rotation as backup PG behind Shamet.
7: PG Reggie Jackson, 21.3 (0.2, 12.6)
8: PF JaMychal Green, 20.7 (0.5, 11.1)
9: SG/SF Rodney McGruder, 15.6 (-0.2, 6.7)
With Beverley returning, we'll see less of Jackson. Green has gotten proper playoff rotation minutes (12-18 per game), but McGruder only garbage time. This might be the most direct comparison we have for the loss of Hayward, though, because they put in Jackson and so we got to see what their rotation would shift to do.
Denver: 8 players with >10 starts, exclude Jokic and Plumlee, and let's name the top 6 others as Murray, Grant, Porter, Monte Morris, Millsap, and Torrey Craig in place of the opted-out Will Barton and Gary Harris. They also traded two deep benchers to Minnesota at the deadline (Malik Beasley & Juan Hernangomez). Right now they're rolling with:
5: PF Michael Porter Jr., 16.4 (0.8, 19.8)
6: SF Torrey Craig, 18.5 (-0.1, 10.8)
7: PG PJ Dozier, 14.2 (-0.2, 11.6)
8: SG Troy Daniels, 12.7 (-0.1, 5.3 lol)
9: SF Keita Bates-Diop, 14.0 (-0.1, 12.1)
Of those, only Dozier really can be considered "in the playoff rotation" right now, the others (new acquisitions from Minnesota) have 19 and 16 playoff minutes in 5 games, including 2-3 DNPs. In a sense, Denver has already had to promote two deep-benchers to the playoff rotation (Porter and Craig) after they lost their MPG leader (Barton) and preferred 6th-man (Harris). That's why I put Porter and Craig's numbers above, because they're sort of the Boston comps right now.
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Boston: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude Theis, Kanter & Time Lord, then PG Wanamaker as #6, counting Hayward as a shadow #5.
7: SF/PF Semi Ojeleye, 15.1 (0.1, 7.7)
8: PF Grant Williams, 14.7 (-0.2, 7.9)
9: SG Romeo Langford, 11.6 (-0.3, 5.4 oof)
Can also compare Javonte Green, who actually got more total NBA minutes this year than Langford, though he's now out. Either way, our #7-9 non-bigs are rated pretty low-value by both VORP and especially by PER, at least compared to our peer teams. And while many teams have given (non-blowout) playoff minutes to their #7s on these lists, few have had to give meaningful minutes to #s 8 or 9. Playoff minutes for our 3 boys here: 29, 39, and 37 respectively.
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Clearly better than Boston (at readiness to absorb injuries to playoff rotation), on this list:
- Milwaukee
- Toronto
- Clippers
- Miami
Comparable to Boston:
- Denver
- Lakers
...and Denver may be about to get unceremoniously bounced tomorrow night, too. So while I had thought our depth was pretty good, I'm forced to conclude that once you get beyond Wanamaker and have to look for a Hayward replacement, we really aren't that good, at least aside from our 4-headed Center rotation.
Get well soon, Gordon Hayward, and maybe eat some spicy food and some castor oil, Robyn Hayward.
My impression is that the answer is no, but I'm certainly happy to be corrected by those more knowledgeable here. TLDR: Turns out, answer is actually "a little yes".I'm admittedly venting without looking too far into the numbers, but aren't minutes for rookies like Grant/Langford or a terrible young vet like Semi worse than most championship contenders at the 8th or 9 spot? These guys are developmental projects or scrubs, I feel like some teams have some competent veterans to fill in on the margins of the rotation, though I could certainly be wrong.
So, Hayward was our #4 non-big, arguably #5. With BW as the clear #6 non-big, Hayward's absence presses our 7-9 on that list into service: Semi, Grant and Langford.
Here are the #7-9 non-bigs (so excluding anyone with >50% minutes at Center) on the other top contenders, with VORP numbers attached, SSS caveat notwithstanding. This should be a decent comparison of "deep bench" (just outside playoff rotation or fringe playoff rotation), and adequacy relative to who they'll be taking the floor against. N.B. this has nothing to say about particular matchups, fitness for a particular purpose, health, etc.
Format:
- Position Name, Mins/G (VORP, PER).
All numbers are regular season. Remember PER has 15 as a league average.
Milwaukee: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude R. Lopez & B. Lopez, then George Hill (backup PG) as #6.
7: SG/SF Pat Connaughton, 18.6 (0.8, 11.5)
8: SF Kyle Korver, 16.6 (0.5, 11.3)
9: PF Ersan Ilyasova, 15.7 (0.6, 14.9)
A very veteran squad for Deep Bench.
Toronto: 8 players with >10 starts, exclude Ibaka, Marc Gasol & Chris Boucher, then SG Norman Powell #5, SF Patrick McCaw #6.
7: SF/PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, 18.7 (0.6, 15.1)
8: SG/SF Terence Davis, 16.8 (0.8, 13.8)
9: PG/SG Matt Thomas, 10.7 (0.3, 13.3) N.B. Rookie
Two 3/4 year vets with ~6 FGA/gm, and a rookie who got 440 minutes (compare Grant Williams: 1043, Romeo Langford: 370).
Miami: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude Olynyk and Meyers Leonard (injured as of February); also exclude Justice Winslow (injured all season), and Bam Adebayo (57% PF, 43% C regular season, but 90% C in playoffs). That puts their non-big lineup at Butler, Dragic, Herro, Robinson, Nunn (starter all season, but some personal incidents and maybe an injury or illness lately), and Jae Crowder at #6. Crowder has lately started in Nunn's place, but might get bumped back down if Nunn is truly back for the Milwaukee series.
7: SG Andre Iguodala, 19.9 (0.2, 10.5)
8: SF/SG Derrick Jones, 23.3 (1.0, 14.9)
9: PF Chris Silva, 7.9 (0.0, 17.3)
Despite having way more regular-season minutes, Derrick Jones has been relegated to spot duty in the playoffs while Crowder (4 starts, 25.5 mpg, might revert to bench) and Iguodala (26.8 mpg, mostly there for D) have seen roles much greater than their regular-season contributions. Part of that is Iguodala's injury that only let him begin his season in February; Crowder was traded to Miami at the deadline but has been at near-starter minutes all season. The biggest difference is that in the Pacers series, Miami has largely thrown aside Derrick Jones, and hardly played Olynyk at all.
Lakers: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, count AD as a PF. You have SG Avery Bradley as #6.
7: PG Alex Caruso, 18.4 (0.5, 10.8)
8: PG Rajon Rondo, 20.5 (0.2, 12.4) N.B. opted out of bubble
8: PG Quinn Cook, 11.5 (-0.2, 10.0)
9: SF/SG Troy Daniels, 11.1 (0.0, 9.0) N.B. traded to Denver at deadline
Caruso is in a role that's roughly as big as Hayward, and from there it's a bunch of dreck they don't trust. The Lakers have 2 players at 35mpg, 8 who are between 18 and 25.5 mpg, and then not a lot of true deep-bench minutes.
Clippers: 8 players with >10 starts, exclude Harrell and Zubac, but we gotta add in Lou Will because he leads the team in minutes despite only 8 starts. Regardless of starts, I'd put their non-bigs ordered as Kawhi, George, Morris, Beverly, Lou Will, Shamet. Patrick Patterson began the year as a starter (18 starts) but gradually fell out, and now after the Marcus Morris trade gets only very occasional minutes. With Beverley's injury, Reggie Jackson has temporarily entered the playoff rotation as backup PG behind Shamet.
7: PG Reggie Jackson, 21.3 (0.2, 12.6)
8: PF JaMychal Green, 20.7 (0.5, 11.1)
9: SG/SF Rodney McGruder, 15.6 (-0.2, 6.7)
With Beverley returning, we'll see less of Jackson. Green has gotten proper playoff rotation minutes (12-18 per game), but McGruder only garbage time. This might be the most direct comparison we have for the loss of Hayward, though, because they put in Jackson and so we got to see what their rotation would shift to do.
Denver: 8 players with >10 starts, exclude Jokic and Plumlee, and let's name the top 6 others as Murray, Grant, Porter, Monte Morris, Millsap, and Torrey Craig in place of the opted-out Will Barton and Gary Harris. They also traded two deep benchers to Minnesota at the deadline (Malik Beasley & Juan Hernangomez). Right now they're rolling with:
5: PF Michael Porter Jr., 16.4 (0.8, 19.8)
6: SF Torrey Craig, 18.5 (-0.1, 10.8)
7: PG PJ Dozier, 14.2 (-0.2, 11.6)
8: SG Troy Daniels, 12.7 (-0.1, 5.3 lol)
9: SF Keita Bates-Diop, 14.0 (-0.1, 12.1)
Of those, only Dozier really can be considered "in the playoff rotation" right now, the others (new acquisitions from Minnesota) have 19 and 16 playoff minutes in 5 games, including 2-3 DNPs. In a sense, Denver has already had to promote two deep-benchers to the playoff rotation (Porter and Craig) after they lost their MPG leader (Barton) and preferred 6th-man (Harris). That's why I put Porter and Craig's numbers above, because they're sort of the Boston comps right now.
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Boston: 6 players with >10 starts, exclude Theis, Kanter & Time Lord, then PG Wanamaker as #6, counting Hayward as a shadow #5.
7: SF/PF Semi Ojeleye, 15.1 (0.1, 7.7)
8: PF Grant Williams, 14.7 (-0.2, 7.9)
9: SG Romeo Langford, 11.6 (-0.3, 5.4 oof)
Can also compare Javonte Green, who actually got more total NBA minutes this year than Langford, though he's now out. Either way, our #7-9 non-bigs are rated pretty low-value by both VORP and especially by PER, at least compared to our peer teams. And while many teams have given (non-blowout) playoff minutes to their #7s on these lists, few have had to give meaningful minutes to #s 8 or 9. Playoff minutes for our 3 boys here: 29, 39, and 37 respectively.
---
Clearly better than Boston (at readiness to absorb injuries to playoff rotation), on this list:
- Milwaukee
- Toronto
- Clippers
- Miami
Comparable to Boston:
- Denver
- Lakers
...and Denver may be about to get unceremoniously bounced tomorrow night, too. So while I had thought our depth was pretty good, I'm forced to conclude that once you get beyond Wanamaker and have to look for a Hayward replacement, we really aren't that good, at least aside from our 4-headed Center rotation.
Get well soon, Gordon Hayward, and maybe eat some spicy food and some castor oil, Robyn Hayward.
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