No Scotty. I'd explain it, but I don't think you'd follow.So then you're saying it's the opposite of far fetched that he'd want a trade if they brought in a replacement to move him off 3rd base this early in his career
No Scotty. I'd explain it, but I don't think you'd follow.So then you're saying it's the opposite of far fetched that he'd want a trade if they brought in a replacement to move him off 3rd base this early in his career
You're right, I can't believe anyone could possibly interpret you saying it's far fetched with you actually meaning that it's far fetched and not your next post which was you trying to backtrack and explain that you didn't actually mean it's far fetched.No Scotty. I'd explain it, but I don't think you'd follow.
I'm afraid he's going to opt out after 2022 and another team will outbid the Red Sox for his services. Xander's motivation for wanting the #2 leads to an obvious but very painful potential outcome ....What about X?
Of course they'd only be doing this if he:You're right, I can't believe anyone could possibly interpret you saying it's far fetched with you actually meaning that it's far fetched and not your next post which was you trying to backtrack and explain that you didn't actually mean it's far fetched.
What's actually far fetched is the idea that they'd move him to primarily being a DH this early in his career because they know if they did he'd likely want to be moved to a team that would let him play the field.
The only caveat I'd throw in regarding the impact of sticky stuff is that it's not like that it was a brand new phenomenon exclusive to the first three months of this season. Pitchers were using the stuff last year and the year before and the year before, etc, so I'd hesitate assigning it any weight when it comes to guys like Kike or Renfroe or even Cordero who have had plenty of PA facing sticky pitchers already. Dalbec might have a different case since his experience against MLB pitchers other than this season was during the COVID shortened season (only saw eight teams) so his exposure to sticky pitchers might have been limited. But it's not really a strong one.Another thing to remember about Dalbec is that the bulk of his rough at-bats this year came before the sticky stuff crackdown (officially on 6/21).
4/2-6/21: 210 PAs, 219/.271/.434; 5.2 BB%, 36.2 K%
6/22-9/17: 210 PAs, .268/.333/.568; 7.6 BB%, 32.4 K%
Strikeouts were up across the board in the early going. AL hitters walked struck out 23.8% of PAs during the first 2 1/2 months of 2021, with a .312 wOBA. From 6/22 on, they’ve struck out 22.4% of the time, with a .318 wOBA. No such gap in the leaguewide K rate existed over those time frames in 2019 or 2018, so it’s not about the weather or anything.
Dalbec’s surge doesn’t neatly fit to the end of the spin boom; in fact his July was more of a trough. I wouldn’t say he struggled because pitchers were using enhancements. But it’s a factor, and I’d buy the theory that those 2 1/2 months stunted his development a bit, promoted bad habits, etc. We can’t throw the first half of his season out, but I question how useful they are for predicting his future. The same goes for Cordero and to some extent Renfroe and Kiké before they figured it out.
No not at all, the day they signed or traded for his replacement he'd probably tell them he wants to be traded. But I'm pretty sure you're arguing just for the sake or arguing so I'll drop it.Of course they'd only be doing this if he:
a) sucks at 3rd and,b) they have a replacement.And given that they'd like to see him be a good 3rd baseman, I think it's a bit far fetched to think he'd be so upset by this he'd demand a trade.
Right?
Re the bolded: that’s true to some extent, right? As I understand it, the usage became incrementally more widespread over time from 2019 on. (I can’t find the article at the moment, probably one the Athletic reports from early summer). In other words, if two-thirds of pitchers were using in May of 2021, it’s not true that two-thirds were using in July 2020 or August 2019 (or using as effectively, as the case may be).The only caveat I'd throw in regarding the impact of sticky stuff is that it's not like that it was a brand new phenomenon exclusive to the first three months of this season. Pitchers were using the stuff last year and the year before and the year before, etc, so I'd hesitate assigning it any weight when it comes to guys like Kike or Renfroe or even Cordero who have had plenty of PA facing sticky pitchers already. Dalbec might have a different case since his experience against MLB pitchers other than this season was during the COVID shortened season (only saw eight teams) so his exposure to sticky pitchers might have been limited. But it's not really a strong one.
It's an interesting angle, but I think ultimately the sticky stuff probably had a negligible impact on his adjustments and development.
My understanding is that it wasn't the number of pitchers using that changed, but the product(s) they were using. When a lot of guys were using sunscreen and rosin, nobody seemed to think it was a big deal. When some of them started using construction adhesive...that's when MLB decided they had a problem.Re the bolded: that’s true to some extent, right? As I understand it, the usage became incrementally more widespread over time from 2019 on. (I can’t find the article at the moment, probably one the Athletic reports from early summer). In other words, if two-thirds of pitchers were using in May of 2021, it’s not true that two-thirds were using in July 2020 or August 2019 (or using as effectively, as the case may be).
The sticky phenomenon is hard to quantify and I’m not sure how to apply the lens to 2021 data — it very well could be negligible. But the gap in strikeout rate seems relevant to how we’re evaluating whether high-whiff projects like Dalbec and Cordero can stick. It’s not like there are questions about how hard they hit the ball.
Exactly. The Buchholz/Bull Frog incident was 2013. Michael Pineda had pine tar on his neck in 2014. Kenny Rogers pitched in the World Series with visible pine tar on his hand in 2006. Sticky stuff has been around forever. It's the industrial strength shit becoming prevalent that moved MLB to action.My understanding is that it wasn't the number of pitchers that using changed, but the product(s) they were using. When a lot of guys were using sunscreen and rosin, nobody seemed to think it was a big deal. When some of them started using construction adhesive...that's when MLB decided they had a problem.
I thought that was Lester with the Bull Frog?Exactly. The Buchholz/Bull Frog incident was 2013. Michael Pineda had pine tar on his neck in 2014. Kenny Rogers pitched in the World Series with visible pine tar on his hand in 2006. Sticky stuff has been around forever. It's the industrial strength shit becoming prevalent that moved MLB to action.
All that’s true. But whatever pitchers were using in this most recent surge seems more of a leaguewide issue. Here the American League K rate since 2018, separated by month (sorry for the long, dumb string of numbers):Exactly. The Buchholz/Bull Frog incident was 2013. Michael Pineda had pine tar on his neck in 2014. Kenny Rogers pitched in the World Series with visible pine tar on his hand in 2006. Sticky stuff has been around forever. It's the industrial strength shit becoming prevalent that moved MLB to action.
Except there's this, make of it whatever you will. He was worse from 6/22-8/10 than he had been prior to that point, hitting for far less power, walking less and striking out even more. His worst stretch of the season. Then from that point on, he's slugging like roided up Bonds, without the 3 to 1 BB:K rate and 2443 PA.Another thing to remember about Dalbec is that the bulk of his rough at-bats this year came before the sticky stuff crackdown (officially on 6/21).
4/2-6/21: 210 PAs, 219/.271/.434; 5.2 BB%, 36.2 K%
6/22-9/17: 210 PAs, .268/.333/.568; 7.6 BB%, 32.4 K%
Dalbec’s been starting every game lately partly because 5 of the 6 opposing starters the Sox have faced this week have been soft-tossing lefties. Cora’s still shielding him from hard stuff from the right side, which Schwarber handles really well.Crazy thing about Dalbec’s resurgence is that Schwarber seems like the odd man out. If we do make the playoffs, do you play Kiki at 2b to get Schwarber’s bat in the lineup (and sacrifice defense?). Who knows if Arroyo is even ready which could make it all moot…
I wouldn't be surprised is we see a rotation between Verdugo/Schwarber/Martinez the rest of the way ... Dalbec's D - to the eye test at least - is so much better in last several weeks. With Iglesais/Arroyo mostly every game at second, Hernandez mostly every game in center, and Dalbec every game at first, you stabilize the defense. Every little bit of improvement essential given how bad they've been. Against lefties, then, go with match ups to decide Schwarb or Verduo starting ....I think Verdugo is better off the bench, especially against lefties, and that's where Schwarber will get playing time. To be seen.
He played in Worcester today (went 1 for 5), so he can't be far off.When exactly is Arroyo expected to be back?
Oh good sign, thank you.He played in Worcester today (went 1 for 5), so he can't be far off.
Pretty much this. It's a weird way of saying his swing mechanics are all in sync.My thoughts would be that his timing has improved, maybe his front foot being down on time so he can react better to the pitch.
Yes. That quote about him being on time has been going around. Cora has noted that being on time has allowed Bobby to hit whatever the pitchers are throwing.Pretty much this. It's a weird way of saying his swing mechanics are all in sync.
This is likely the case, but iirc the underlying numbers earlier in the season were suggesting that he was quite unlucky. I think we would take the full season numbers at this point, as he is running an .805 OPS/.340 wOBA - if the defensive improvements are real, which seems plausible as he is still learning the position, that is a very useful player.FanGraphs on Bobby D’s hot streak, throwing a little bit of cold water on the enthusiasm.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-bobby-dalbecs-improved-plate-discipline-sustainable/
The conclusion: “While it’s been fun to watch Dalbec have so much success, some of his underlying numbers demonstrate that he’s only made slight changes to his swing decisions. As with most players, his full-season stats describe him best, making this stretch likely just a small blip.”
He's up to slightly above average against RHP for the season now. If his defensive improvement over the last 2 months is for real and carries over into next year then he'd be perfectly fine as a full time 1b next season if he replicated this years numbers. If he goes back to being a bad defender then he's not good enough to play against RHPs if he's only going to hit slightly above average.crushing again tonight. What stuns me as how he has completely flipped the script against right handed pitching. He was positively inept against RHP for 4 months. all of a sudden I feel like 80
% of this six week surge has been against righties. Unreal turnaround. Can someone who is better at accessing these numbers post his updated numbers against righties. Are they good enough where if you just discounted his hot streak, and took his season long numbers against righties, and the season ended today, we wouldnt suggest he needs to be platooned next year?
He's putting together really good at bats. Tonight was another good example. Even his outs are good ABs, where he has a plan, putting good swings on balls and making good decisions. I was a skeptic for a long time, but this new Bobby is selling me.crushing again tonight. What stuns me as how he has completely flipped the script against right handed pitching. He was positively inept against RHP for 4 months. all of a sudden I feel like 80
% of this six week surge has been against righties. Unreal turnaround. Can someone who is better at accessing these numbers post his updated numbers against righties. Are they good enough where if you just discounted his hot streak, and took his season long numbers against righties, and the season ended today, we wouldnt suggest he needs to be platooned next year?
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/09/22/sports/kyle-schwarber-2-hrs-red-sox-pound-mets/The decision to start Schwarber at first and sit Dalbec illuminated the team’s depth of options.
On the surface, sitting Dalbec seemed preposterous. The rookie has been on a run since mid-August that rivals the most prolific slugging stretches by any Red Sox player over the last handful of years. He entered Wednesday hitting .340 with a .426 OBP and colossal .802 slugging mark along with 12 homers in his last 34 games.
But for all of his recent success, Dalbec has continued to struggle against velocity, hitting .200 with a .320 slugging mark and just one homer against pitches of at least 94 miles per hour during his hot streak, numbers in line with the entire season.
Schwarber, on the other hand, has swung a sledgehammer against velocity. He entered the night hitting a modest .228 average but with a .545 slugging mark and nine homers against pitches of 94-plus m.p.h.
In a pregame hitters’ meeting, Schwarber told teammates to be ready for Mets starter Taijuan Walker to attack with heat. He then practiced what he preached, crushing a 94-m.p.h. fastball off Walker (7-11, 4.57) to straightaway center for his 30th homer to give the Sox a 1-0 lead in the first.
One inning later, with the Sox up, 3-1, Schwarber launched a 96-m.p.h. heater into the right field bleachers for a three-run homer. He finished 3 for 4 with two homers, a double, and a walk.
I disagree. Trading should be about buying low and selling high. I'm sure Bloom will kick the tires on potential trade deals to see if Bobby can be flipped for something better.Bobby over 148 games has been worth ~1.3 wins per BRef. Per FanGraphs, he's been worth 1.4 wins. This includes the really hot streaks and the bad play at 1B. If we pencil in that the defensive improvement is real, and assume that he can be a 120 wRC+ guy like he's been with the bat, he's probably a 2-win player who's going to make the minimum for the next two years. I honestly don't see any way we can trade him, he has become too valuable to trade. If he can learn to field at 2B then he might still get 150 games even when Casas graduates.
JDM is likely gone this winter and absolutely gone after 2022.I disagree. Trading should be about buying low and selling high. I'm sure Bloom will kick the tires on potential trade deals to see if Bobby can be flipped for something better.
That being said, Dalbec probably makes the most sense as a low-cost DH replacement for when JDM leaves after 2023. The pitching is already strained by a weak defense -- I don't think it can handle a poor defensive player learning yet another position at the MLB level.
Was the opt out ever confirmed or not?JDM is likely gone this winter and absolutely gone after 2022.
It was. With the NL likely adopting the DH I expect him to walk.Was the opt out ever confirmed or not?
JD’s future is an interesting topic in and of itself. He really had a terrific first half and a 2020-esque second half. Combined with his vaccine stance, it wouldn’t surprise me if he opted in and Bloom looked to move him (and maybe pay some of his salary) if he doesn’t opt out.JDM is likely gone this winter and absolutely gone after 2022.
I co-sign all of this. The option to trade a productive JDM on a one-year deal, or to QO him if he opts out and collect a draft pick, gives the Sox a ton of motivation to replace him a year early and install Schwarber as the full-time DH.JD’s future is an interesting topic in and of itself. He really had a terrific first half and a 2020-esque second half. Combined with his vaccine stance, it wouldn’t surprise me if he opted in and Bloom looked to move him (and maybe pay some of his salary) if he doesn’t opt out.
I also wonder whether they look to replace JD by signing Schwarber to a longer-term deal. On the NESN broadcast last night, they were discussing how Schwarber—despite being brought in at least in part to replace Dalbec—apparently worked very closely with him before he was activated to turn his swing around. As Eck and DOB were saying, that speaks to Schwarber as a teammate but also as an influence.
But there is definitely a chance that Schwarber doesn’t want to be a full time DH. I think they have to look at him as LF/DH/1b to have a realistic chance of signing himI co-sign all of this. The option to trade a productive JDM on a one-year deal, or to QO him if he opts out and collect a draft pick, gives the Sox a ton of motivation to replace him a year early and install Schwarber as the full-time DH.
He doesn’t have a ton of trade value at 1/$19.3M, but JDM’s definitely an asset when half the league is looking for a DH bat. He even has +2 defensive runs saved in left field this year. Maybe some FOs are convinced he could handle 50 games in the outfield.
I'm not banking on it being a full season but I guess that's possible. I just think general uncertainty may trump going into the FA market and he hasn't bet on himself yet.Why would he opt in with a work stoppage looming, though? He wouldn’t get paid if there’s no season.
At his age (34), he had to be thinking about length of deal and maximizing overall contract value. Opting in to 1/19 is risky for a guy his age. He’s had an overall good year but if he has a season like his second half, his value could drop a lot.
Can he get 2/35 or 3/40 or so? I would guess so. He’s still a 2.5-3 win player.
He will have to decide on his opt out before he knows what offers are out there (officially at least). I would think he’d be looking for something like 3/50. As a 34 year old coming off a ~3 win season, that seems doable.I wonder what the minimum number is for JD on a two year deal to walk away from 1/19. If he gets offered say 2/27 elsewhere, does he take it?
Far too early to start but in looking forward to seeing the Guess-where-these-guys-get-signed thread. It’s a great FA class.He will have to decide on his opt out before he knows what offers are out there (officially at least). I would think he’d be looking for something like 3/50. As a 34 year old coming off a ~3 win season, that seems doable.
Opting in really only makes sense if he absolutely loves Boston and is worried that he won’t be able to find a contender that is interested. But to me, he looks like a fit in Seattle, Texas, Baltimore, KC, Chicago and potentially a few others. And if universal DH is adopted, his market more than doubles, seems worth the risk to me.
it’s a good FA class, after Story, Seagar, Baez, Correa, Freeman, Bryant, Castellanos, Semien, JD seems to be in top of the next tier, with Cruz, Schwarber, Marte, Blackmon, Pham, Rosario, the other Seagar.