Beavis and Butthead?But what happens when you combine a comedy of errors and viagra?
Did you see in the comments at the end of the article the one from Sean McDermott? "Let's not give more credit than we need to give credit to Bill Belichick in this one"
2003 Pats were second in defensive DVOA. This year’s team is 4th. Not that far off.If only the Pats had something close now to the defense for that Titans playoff game.
I spent about 15 minutes looking for anything that showed how despite being similar by DVOA the 2003 Patriots defense was actually significantly better/more consistent/less reliant on luck than this year's unit and I couldn't really find it. They actually are pretty comparable (taking into account the scoring environments, of course).2003 Pats were second in defensive DVOA. This year’s team is 4th. Not that far off.
2003 played much better opponents, at least to the eye test. But it’s entirely possible the stats don’t tell that story.I spent about 15 minutes looking for anything that showed how despite being similar by DVOA the 2003 Patriots defense was actually significantly better/more consistent/less reliant on luck than this year's unit and I couldn't really find it. They actually are pretty comparable (taking into account the scoring environments, of course).
2003 played an incredibly challenging schedule. They pitched 3 shut-outs, and went 4-0 against the league MVP's that season (Manning and McNair split the award, and were each beaten in the regular and post-season), and they were the most physical team in football. I like this year's team, but they aren't even close to the 2003 team.2003 played much better opponents, at least to the eye test. But it’s entirely possible the stats don’t tell that story.
That's the part that concerns me. I could see Folk kicking 5FGs and losing 17-15.So maximizing scoring opportunities will be key. Gotta get touchdowns instead of field goals.
Honestly if you want to beat that you need to win on the outside. The way they are cracking down on their underneath stuff so I think their best options involve being patient because many of the ways to attack 2 man coverage are on longer routes. Could be wrong on strategy.@SMU_Sox and others - The Bills and Colts went wirh a plan (inside leverage , 2 deep) to try to test Mac's arm. Is there anything scheme wise that we may see to counter that?
They played a harder schedule than this year's version, but still good for only the 16th hardest schedule of offenses in the league, as opposed to this year's 29th. Still that's already baked into DVOA, so it's kinda redundant.2003 played an incredibly challenging schedule. They pitched 3 shut-outs, and went 4-0 against the league MVP's that season (Manning and McNair split the award, and were each beaten in the regular and post-season), and they were the most physical team in football. I like this year's team, but they aren't even close to the 2003 team.
I hate to say, "They need to score early and play with a lead", because duh. No-one ever says, "I hope to fall behind early to create a sense of urgency to focus and play better." But I bet that this game sees nearly all of its scoring happening in the 1st half. When there is 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter everyone will want to just be done, but the trailing team even more so. So maximizing scoring opportunities will be key. Gotta get touchdowns instead of field goals.
The evidence feels more anecdotal to me, and includes the playoffs. Like, they gave up 30 points to the Titans and 34 to Indy in the regular season, then held both to 14 apiece in the playoffs, so that colors our memory.They played a harder schedule than this year's version, but still good for only the 16th hardest schedule of offenses in the league, as opposed to this year's 29th. Still that's already baked into DVOA, so it's kinda redundant.
Slightly different coverage, but you can see from Lazar's breakdown against Miami that Josh et al dialed up some plays and Mac had no issues throwing downfield. My concern is whether the pats hold up on the offensive line long enough to allow those plays to develop.Honestly if you want to beat that you need to win on the outside. The way they are cracking down on their underneath stuff so I think their best options involve being patient because many of the ways to attack 2 man coverage are on longer routes. Could be wrong on strategy.
Thanks. I was thinking along the same lines... threaten the seams to keep the Safetys honest,. Then, if you miss on the outs, make sure it is to the sideline.Honestly if you want to beat that you need to win on the outside. The way they are cracking down on their underneath stuff so I think their best options involve being patient because many of the ways to attack 2 man coverage are on longer routes. Could be wrong on strategy.
No. Brown has not practiced or played at LT since OTA's. Most likely, Justin Herron will go in at LT and Onwenu will keep his role as the 6th OL. Rather than create a whole bunch of moving parts, there is just 1 spot to change.Wynn is out. Will they move Brown to the other side?
View: https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1482085093514559492
True - they aren't a juggernaut but I am not sure what saying they lost to Jacksonville tells me other than they are a team that has a lot of game to game variance. They lead the NFL with +194 net points. They scored the 3rd most points and allowed the fewest. I mentioned upthread that the Bills have had the highest variance in their game to game play by DVOA since 2013. If they get the bad Bills then yeah they could even win by multiple scores and that's why the spread is -4 to -4.5 in most places. This isn't a slam dunk for the Bills.Jones has had slow starts in the last three losses but he has brought the team back in those games. If they can just play a good first quarter in all three phases, I like their chances. Everyone is acting like this Bills team is a juggernaut. They lost to Jacksonville for crying out loud.
Trying to infer from here, does that mean no Harry, Mills, and Barmore?FOXBOROUGH, Mass. – The New England Patriots announced that they have elevated CB De'Vante Bausby, DL Daniel Ekuale , DB D'Angelo Ross and WR Kristian Wilkerson to the active roster from the practice squad.
I'd say it's more an issue for Mills.Ekuale has beem activated a few times now, so I don't think it says anything about Barmore.
Ross and Bausby (who?) suggests that Dugger might be out.
Unknown.Apologies if I missed it, but what is Duggar's hand injury?
Dugger was out last week replaced by Ross. That Ross is up again, joined by another DB, suggests that both Dugger and Mills will be out.I'd say it's more an issue for Mills.
This would be a real bummer on Dugger. Seems like the guy that helps them disrupt the crossing routes. Feels more and more like a game where a lot of things will have to break the Pats’ way.Dugger was out last week replaced by Ross. That Ross is up again, joined by another DB, suggests that both Dugger and Mills will be out.
Ekuale has beem activated a few times now, so I don't think it says anything about Barmore.
BSJGodchaux should, really, be benched for good. He occasionally makes a play, but I can provide 10 more examples where he's rushing up the field or out of his gap leading to easy plays by the opponent.
I'm puzzled. A safety should be able to play through a hand injury in a playoff game. Wrap the hand up and get out there.Unknown.
Ross was active Weeks 16 and 17 as well, when Dugger was available. Joejuan Williams could be the odd man out here, especially with Bausby also up.Dugger was out last week replaced by Ross. That Ross is up again, joined by another DB, suggests that both Dugger and Mills will be out.
Huh, almost like waiting for information instead of making multiple posts about being confused pays off.That makes more sense.
Tempers are short around these parts lately.Huh, almost like waiting for information instead of making multiple posts about being confused pays off.
The sea was angry that day, my friends. Like an old man sending back soup at a deli…Tempers are short around these parts lately.
I wonder if the other concept you’d use is to try to take advantage of the short-outside area. That can be swing passes to RBs, flanker screens, etc. Not huge gainers but something to use on 3rd and 5 type situationsThanks. I was thinking along the same lines... threaten the seams to keep the Safetys honest,. Then, if you miss on the outs, make sure it is to the sideline.
The NFL really needs to take into consideration weather when scheduling these games. Also the Bills are very likely to be on the road for the divisional round even if they win. A Bills victory means they are going to KC while the winner of Vegas-Cincy goes to Tennessee.My friend the Bills fan bought tickets for him and his son for the game. They’re 15 rows off the field and paid $300. As they were getting ready for the 8 hour drive his son checks the tickets and realizes they are for the divisional round. So he has to buy a new set of tickets and basically got same tickets but for half the price. I told him not to worry that when the Pats win tonight he will get a refund.
I feel like the last few years, opponents know that the Pats love those plays and as such they are very ineffective now. It seems like there’s an ebony bee of those passes behind the line of scrimmage, be they to WRs, TEs, or RBs, that end up as 2 yard losses.I wonder if the other concept you’d use is to try to take advantage of the short-outside area. That can be swing passes to RBs, flanker screens, etc. Not huge gainers but something to use on 3rd and 5 type situations
I know that (and so does he) but it sounds better my way.The NFL really needs to take into consideration weather when scheduling these games. Also the Bills are very likely to be on the road for the divisional round even if they win. A Bills victory means they are going to KC while the winner of Vegas-Cincy goes to Tennessee.
Grr. It's rare that I hate when I'm right. This is one of those times.I feel as though if everything goes right for the Pats, they win a close game something like 20-17. But if things go right for the Bills, they win a blowout, like 41-10.
Nailed it.I was just replying to the idea that it would take a comedy of errors to yield a blowout. My point was simply that some injuries that are already limiting practice participation could force the Pats to scrap their strength, leading to some plays we’ve already seen happen a few times this season. And that this could snowball to a blowout.
Um sorry for questioning you, and yet after re-reading your post, somehow the game could have been worse.Here’s a scenario that is fairly realistic, I fear.
Pre-game:
1. Dugger and Mills can’t play (injury and COVID).
2. Herron has to play the entire game for Wynn.
In-game:
1. Without 2 of their top DBs, Allen, Diggs and company run wild.
2. Trailing the whole game, the Pats have to abandon the run and throw on every down. Herron gets repeatedly blown up, Jones has the worst game of his career. Pick-6 and a strip-sack/scoop-and-score.
3. Special Teams give up another TD somehow.
I wonder if we see Ross playing a role as slot corner this game. Phillips and Dugger are good against tight ends but haven’t been as effective against shiftier slot types. Bryant is a great role player but he’s not the guy you can put on an island against a twitched up slot type especially if that guy is going to be going sideline to sideline on routes.
As for the defensive line. They’ve been inconsistent this year. Some games they absolutely dominant the LOS and the pressure is coming every other snap. Other times they can’t get their acts together as individuals and as a unit and the secondary eventually gets picked apart. Unless they disrupt the timing of faster spread teams they are asking for trouble. I hope we see guys like Judon, High, KVN, chucking the slots before they have a chance for a free release.
Without Mills they are down to the bottom of the barrel at outside corner. JJW and Wade are both press-man types but I would hate to see either try and cover Diggs or Sanders. I could see JJW or Wade being ok on Gabe Davis though. And really I think it’s on JJW as he is ahead in the pecking order. JJW has had some good games but he’s also been atrocious like against Houston. Ultimately I fear the offense is going to have to do some heavy lifting and I am unsure that they can handle that task. Buffalo has one of the best defenses in the NFL and has more time to stew together as a team the last few years whereas while the Patriots have some core players they still play like a team that is in its first year together. I don’t think the Patriots win and I worry it could get ugly but you never know and if, again, they play a clean game they have a 35-40% chance to win.
Honestly if you want to beat that you need to win on the outside. The way they are cracking down on their underneath stuff so I think their best options involve being patient because many of the ways to attack 2 man coverage are on longer routes. Could be wrong on strategy.
My nightmare scenario was the defensive line playing like shit (that includes edges) and the secondary depth being an issue. Well folks, the secondary depth was not good and the defensive line played like shit.These injuries are adding up. Pats are down Wynn and could lose Mills and/or Dugger. Who is playing outside corner aside from JCJ? JJW? Bethel? Who is their slot corner this time around? Is it Ross? That's scraping the bottom of the barrel in the secondary.
I thought that throw was short, inside and hung too long in the air. It's probably a bucket catch against air or in single coverage, so not a horrendous pass or anything, but Agholor had the corner toasted and Mac gave Hyde life on that play.My nightmare scenario was the defensive line playing like shit (that includes edges) and the secondary depth being an issue. Well folks, the secondary depth was not good and the defensive line played like shit.
On the good side Mac actually attacked downfield. They knew offensively what they had to do and had this been a closer game where they didn’t have to just throw it all the time I think they might have even had success. Unfortunately it got so out of hand and so quickly that we will never know. Bolden dropping that pass hurt.
On the interception to Agholor my first take was Mac didn’t throw it close enough outside. I know SN has the same ish take. Basically Agholor had to adjust inside to the ball and while it was close it was too far to the field side and let their pro bowl safety make a play on it. I know the announcers disagreed. It was a spectacular play by the safety but it was also a throw he could make a play on vs a ball right near the sideline.
Yeah that was my take on the deep ball.. incredible defensive play, but a different throw and it's a TD and Hyde never has a shot at making the great play.My nightmare scenario was the defensive line playing like shit (that includes edges) and the secondary depth being an issue. Well folks, the secondary depth was not good and the defensive line played like shit.
On the good side Mac actually attacked downfield. They knew offensively what they had to do and had this been a closer game where they didn’t have to just throw it all the time I think they might have even had success. Unfortunately it got so out of hand and so quickly that we will never know. Bolden dropping that pass hurt.
On the interception to Agholor my first take was Mac didn’t throw it close enough outside. I know SN has the same ish take. Basically Agholor had to adjust inside to the ball and while it was close it was too far to the field side and let their pro bowl safety make a play on it. I know the announcers disagreed. It was a spectacular play by the safety but it was also a throw he could make a play on vs a ball right near the sideline.