It hasn't always been pretty, but Franchy Cordero now has a 100 wRC+ on the season. Here's how he got there, in three parts:
A) April 29-July 1: .259/.335/.415, 10.2 BB%, 26.3 K%, 11.4 Barrel%, 51.4 HardHit%, 13.5 SwStr%, 27.6 O-Swing%, .366 expected wOBA, 110 wRC+
B) July 2-Aug 1: .132/.213/.250, 9.1 BB%, 44.2 K%, 11.1 Barrel%, 22.0 HardHit%, 19.5 SwStr%, 42.6 O-Swing%, .202 expected wOBA, 27 wRC+
C) Aug 21-present: 5 for 13, .385/.467/1.308, 2 BB, 4 HR, 6 Ks in 15 PAs, 30.2 SwStr%, 42.4 O-Swing%, .397 expected wOBA, 376 wRC+
Part A, we have a pretty productive hitter, albeit one who gives some value back playing emergency below-average defense out of position. The power numbers aren't eye-popping, but the underlying xStats are very promising (barrel rate, walk rate, chase rate, launch angle/ground ball rate). He was also the victim of some bad luck on deep fly balls that would have been home runs in other parks, hence the robust xwOBA.
Part B, we have an unplayable disaster. Cordero maintained his decent walk rate, but his chase rate (O-swing) skyrocketed and the whiffs snowballed. (He was demoted to Worcester on August 2nd, where he hit .370/.426/.674 in 54 PA.)
Part C, ongoing...is it some kind of synthesis of the two? He's hit four home runs in 15 PAs (off Berrios, Kluber, a tough reliever in Dillon Tate and soft-tossing lefty in Yarbrough). The plate discipline is still mostly there, but the chase and whiff rates are still very high. I'm not sure if he's doing something differently or if he's just run into a few, but the power is quite nice.
The easy, laced-with-frustration knock has been to say Cordero is a AAAA player. I'm not sure about that. I still think there's a gap between overall perception of his productivity and reality. I get it: a lot of fans have a low tolerance for high-strikeout players, and his associations with Benintendi's departure and Bloom's unsuccessful first base tinkering has not endeared him. But he's still a guy with tremendous power and athleticism who lost several years to injury, and still has only one full season of ML at-bats (715 PA) under his belt. We're seeing his most substantial season of plate appearances to date, and the 100 wRC+ he's put up is, definitionally, major-league caliber.
Time is, however, running out to establish himself, and it might not be here. I think we can all agree that he's not the future at first base. But he is a decent outfielder, and can play right field arguably better than Verdugo. In fact, given their timelines of team control (both through 2024) and defensive positions, the two are strangely comparable despite much different approaches. Here are their lines this year, with Hosmer's thrown in for good measure:
FC: .228/.307/.417, .189 ISO, .320 expected wOBA, 100 wRC+
AV: .283/.327/.400, .118 ISO, .333 expected wOBA, 102 wRC+
EH: .267/.333/.381, .115 ISO, .311 expected wOBA, 103 wRC+
Between Hosmer's injury and September garbage time on the way, it's possible Cordero will get another another month of PAs. I'd like to see them. I still think that there's plenty of upside here, as long as whatever happened in July doesn't return. For perspective, his .315 wOBA has been more productive in 2022 than Max Kepler, Nick Castellanos, Andrew McCutchen, Eric Hosmer, Ryan Mountcastle, Gleyber Torres, Jorge Soler, Tyler O'Neill, Riley Greene, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Ramon Laureano.
Much has been made about the value of Hosmer being league-average while making the league minimum. Cordero will probably make roughly $4M total in arbitration across '23 and '24. Meanwhile, Verdugo's arb salaries will probably cost $15-16 million over the same period. We have plenty of money so I don't expect this will be a deciding factor for keeping one over the other. But one guy is considered a core member of the team and another is someone I'd think most people would be content to DFA, and the value between the two seems closer than I had thought.