2021:
1. Mayer: Projects to be above average offensively and defensively. He's struggled in the early going in Greenville but it's normal after a promotion.
2. DNS
3. McDonough: He's already 23 and is failing to hit in A+. He's not hitting for average or power and hasn't shown much in the way of plate discipline. I'm leaning towards organizational guy.
4. Rodriguez-Cruz: Sits around 92 and tops out at 95. Could add some velocity with age. Needs experience and possibly some worth with his delivery. It's medium effort. Very wide range of outcomes.
5. Hickey: Average hit tool, average power, good eye. Has to prove himself at AA, as that's the first real challenge for college players. If he can stick at C, potential regular. Doesn't hit enough for 1b/3b.
6: McElveny: The 19 year old started the year in the FCL but was quickly promoted to Salem. Wide range of outcomes and is currently getting reps at C.
7. Olds: Getting rocked in Greenville, very wild. Filler.
8. Dobbins: Stuff has recovered, sitting mid 90s and topping out around 97-98. A lot of his projection will depend on how he continues to recover from TJS. Early signs are promising.
9. Miller: Struggling as a 22 year old in Salem. Filler.
10. Litwicki: Hasn't played.
11. Kavadas: While old for A/A+, he absolutely destroyed the league. He has some legit power but a lot of swing and miss in his game. How he handles AA will be very telling. Hard to give him a projection until he reaches AA.
12. Troye: 23 year old getting lit up in Salem. Filler.
14. Webb is an intriguing arm who came into the year sitting at 92-94. In the past, he at in the mid 90s and could reach 100. His outcome will largely depend on if he can recover the lost velocity. He's striking out a lot of batters this year.
15. DNS
16. BJ Vela: Repeating the FCL for a 2nd year despite being 22. Filler.
17. Guerrero: Just turned 22. Started in the FCL but was quickly moved up to Salem with good success. Sits around 92-93 and tops out at 95-96. Needs to work on command and control issues.
18. Sikes: College player with decent results in A/A+. He'll have to hold his own in AA next year but could possibly develop into a 4th/5th OF type.
19. Uberstine: Having a meh year in A/A+ and his stuff is not very intriguing at all.
20: DNS
Summary:
Potential All Stars: Mayer.
Potential Regulars: Nathan Hickey
Other Players of Note: McElveny, Kavadas,
Arms of Note: Dobbins, Rodriguez-Cruz, Webb. Guerrero
Probably Filler: McDonough, Olds, Miller, Litwicki, Troye, BJ Vela, Uberstine. College players not performing at the A level.
If Mayer works out, this class is a smashing success. It's still too early to really summarize this draft until we know more about Hickey, Kavadas and the pitchers but it's looking pretty good so far.
2020:
1. Nick Yorke: Had a great year last year but has been just as bad this year. Some of that is due to injury and bad BAbip luck. Still has a ceiling of an every day regular and potential all star, though his star has diminished some.
3. Blaze Jordan: Had a decent year in Salem and earned a promotion to A+. Hasn't hit for as much power this year and there's some concerns if he can hit advanced pitching. Potential every day 1b.
4. Jeremy Wu-Yeilland: TJS. Was throwing 93-95 and topping out at 97. MR profile unless he adds a 3rd pitch.
5. Shane Drohan: Lefty who sits around 90-92, tops out at 94. Or was. He had some room for improvement, not sure if he has. not much of a ceiling.
2020 draft will largely depend on Yorke and Jordan but given it was 4 picks, it's hard to compare to other drafts.
2019. In 2022, Brandon Walter would have never been picked since the draft stops at 20 rounds.
2. Matthew Lugo: Just turned 21 and has hit for a lot more power this year. Probably a utility player type.
4. Noah Song: He looked promising but he's 25 and hasn't pitched since 2019.
6. Chris Murphy: On some Sox top 10 list. Back end starter/MR type. Could be in Boston next year. Will make it to MLB.
7. Brock Bell: Hasn't pitched since 2019. Probably filler.
10. Stephen Scott: Probably filler. Having a weird year where he's been better in AA than A.
26. Brandon Walter: Fringe Top 100 guy. He has some Jekyll and Hyde in him though. I think he has a chance of being an impact relief pitcher. It's possible he sticks in the rotation too. Will make it to MLB.
32. Bradley Blalock, probably filler but he's 21. He had TJS earlier this year.
This draft will depend on Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Matthew Lugo most likely. If one of Walter or Murphy can stick in the rotation and the other in the bullpen, while Lugo becomes a UI, that's a good draft. There aren't any real sure things with the 2019 draft though. Brandon Walter is probably the closest.
2018 Draft.
1. Casas: Close to the majors. Potential impact bat. Will have to improve against LHP but his bat is all but ready vs RHP. Will make it MLB.
5. Thad Ward: Missed some time due to TJS but has returned and is doing well. Back end/MR type. Should at least make it to MLB.
7. Jarren Duran: Already in the majors. Has shown some improvement year to year but has also had some, uh, moments.
11. Nick Northcut: Probably filler but he's 23 and in AA. Offers powers and little else. Probably won't make the majors but is too young to put into the list below.
15. Andrew Politi: Potential MR. Having a pretty good year in the minors now. Should at least make the majors.
2018 has a few players who could get a cup of coffee later on in life: Feltman, Cottam, Granberg.
This draft is looking very good but will depend on Casas (or Duran) becoming starters. If they both do, awesome. There's also a chance Ward and Politi can provide value out of the pen.
2017 Draft
1. Tanner Houck: Already in the Majors. Has had success as a starter and a bullpen arm.
16. Kutter Crawford: Already in the Majors; Has had success as a starter.
Houck and Crawford both look like they are on the path to successful MLB careers.
2016 produced Jay Groome, Bobby Dalbec and Santiago Espinal.
2015: Ben10, Ben Taylor,
2014: Chavis, Kopech, Beeks
2013: Dubon? Eww
2012: Nothing beyond a cup of coffee as far as I can tell
2011: Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Noe Ramirez, Mookie, Travis Shaw. WOW.
2010: Brandon Workman, Hunter Renfroe (didn't sign)
All in all, getting around 2 useful players in a draft and drafts will weed themselves down pretty quickly. 2011 was under different rules and the Sox had 4 1st round picks.
I have 8 players of note in 2021
7 in 2019, but 2 haven't even pitched since 2019 and the other got TJS in 2021.
5 in 2018
2 in 2017
1. Mayer: Projects to be above average offensively and defensively. He's struggled in the early going in Greenville but it's normal after a promotion.
2. DNS
3. McDonough: He's already 23 and is failing to hit in A+. He's not hitting for average or power and hasn't shown much in the way of plate discipline. I'm leaning towards organizational guy.
4. Rodriguez-Cruz: Sits around 92 and tops out at 95. Could add some velocity with age. Needs experience and possibly some worth with his delivery. It's medium effort. Very wide range of outcomes.
5. Hickey: Average hit tool, average power, good eye. Has to prove himself at AA, as that's the first real challenge for college players. If he can stick at C, potential regular. Doesn't hit enough for 1b/3b.
6: McElveny: The 19 year old started the year in the FCL but was quickly promoted to Salem. Wide range of outcomes and is currently getting reps at C.
7. Olds: Getting rocked in Greenville, very wild. Filler.
8. Dobbins: Stuff has recovered, sitting mid 90s and topping out around 97-98. A lot of his projection will depend on how he continues to recover from TJS. Early signs are promising.
9. Miller: Struggling as a 22 year old in Salem. Filler.
10. Litwicki: Hasn't played.
11. Kavadas: While old for A/A+, he absolutely destroyed the league. He has some legit power but a lot of swing and miss in his game. How he handles AA will be very telling. Hard to give him a projection until he reaches AA.
12. Troye: 23 year old getting lit up in Salem. Filler.
14. Webb is an intriguing arm who came into the year sitting at 92-94. In the past, he at in the mid 90s and could reach 100. His outcome will largely depend on if he can recover the lost velocity. He's striking out a lot of batters this year.
15. DNS
16. BJ Vela: Repeating the FCL for a 2nd year despite being 22. Filler.
17. Guerrero: Just turned 22. Started in the FCL but was quickly moved up to Salem with good success. Sits around 92-93 and tops out at 95-96. Needs to work on command and control issues.
18. Sikes: College player with decent results in A/A+. He'll have to hold his own in AA next year but could possibly develop into a 4th/5th OF type.
19. Uberstine: Having a meh year in A/A+ and his stuff is not very intriguing at all.
20: DNS
Summary:
Potential All Stars: Mayer.
Potential Regulars: Nathan Hickey
Other Players of Note: McElveny, Kavadas,
Arms of Note: Dobbins, Rodriguez-Cruz, Webb. Guerrero
Probably Filler: McDonough, Olds, Miller, Litwicki, Troye, BJ Vela, Uberstine. College players not performing at the A level.
If Mayer works out, this class is a smashing success. It's still too early to really summarize this draft until we know more about Hickey, Kavadas and the pitchers but it's looking pretty good so far.
2020:
1. Nick Yorke: Had a great year last year but has been just as bad this year. Some of that is due to injury and bad BAbip luck. Still has a ceiling of an every day regular and potential all star, though his star has diminished some.
3. Blaze Jordan: Had a decent year in Salem and earned a promotion to A+. Hasn't hit for as much power this year and there's some concerns if he can hit advanced pitching. Potential every day 1b.
4. Jeremy Wu-Yeilland: TJS. Was throwing 93-95 and topping out at 97. MR profile unless he adds a 3rd pitch.
5. Shane Drohan: Lefty who sits around 90-92, tops out at 94. Or was. He had some room for improvement, not sure if he has. not much of a ceiling.
2020 draft will largely depend on Yorke and Jordan but given it was 4 picks, it's hard to compare to other drafts.
2019. In 2022, Brandon Walter would have never been picked since the draft stops at 20 rounds.
2. Matthew Lugo: Just turned 21 and has hit for a lot more power this year. Probably a utility player type.
4. Noah Song: He looked promising but he's 25 and hasn't pitched since 2019.
6. Chris Murphy: On some Sox top 10 list. Back end starter/MR type. Could be in Boston next year. Will make it to MLB.
7. Brock Bell: Hasn't pitched since 2019. Probably filler.
10. Stephen Scott: Probably filler. Having a weird year where he's been better in AA than A.
26. Brandon Walter: Fringe Top 100 guy. He has some Jekyll and Hyde in him though. I think he has a chance of being an impact relief pitcher. It's possible he sticks in the rotation too. Will make it to MLB.
32. Bradley Blalock, probably filler but he's 21. He had TJS earlier this year.
This draft will depend on Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Matthew Lugo most likely. If one of Walter or Murphy can stick in the rotation and the other in the bullpen, while Lugo becomes a UI, that's a good draft. There aren't any real sure things with the 2019 draft though. Brandon Walter is probably the closest.
2018 Draft.
1. Casas: Close to the majors. Potential impact bat. Will have to improve against LHP but his bat is all but ready vs RHP. Will make it MLB.
5. Thad Ward: Missed some time due to TJS but has returned and is doing well. Back end/MR type. Should at least make it to MLB.
7. Jarren Duran: Already in the majors. Has shown some improvement year to year but has also had some, uh, moments.
11. Nick Northcut: Probably filler but he's 23 and in AA. Offers powers and little else. Probably won't make the majors but is too young to put into the list below.
15. Andrew Politi: Potential MR. Having a pretty good year in the minors now. Should at least make the majors.
2018 has a few players who could get a cup of coffee later on in life: Feltman, Cottam, Granberg.
This draft is looking very good but will depend on Casas (or Duran) becoming starters. If they both do, awesome. There's also a chance Ward and Politi can provide value out of the pen.
2017 Draft
1. Tanner Houck: Already in the Majors. Has had success as a starter and a bullpen arm.
16. Kutter Crawford: Already in the Majors; Has had success as a starter.
Houck and Crawford both look like they are on the path to successful MLB careers.
2016 produced Jay Groome, Bobby Dalbec and Santiago Espinal.
2015: Ben10, Ben Taylor,
2014: Chavis, Kopech, Beeks
2013: Dubon? Eww
2012: Nothing beyond a cup of coffee as far as I can tell
2011: Barnes, Swihart, Owens, Bradley, Noe Ramirez, Mookie, Travis Shaw. WOW.
2010: Brandon Workman, Hunter Renfroe (didn't sign)
All in all, getting around 2 useful players in a draft and drafts will weed themselves down pretty quickly. 2011 was under different rules and the Sox had 4 1st round picks.
I have 8 players of note in 2021
7 in 2019, but 2 haven't even pitched since 2019 and the other got TJS in 2021.
5 in 2018
2 in 2017