You think the asking price for Boras client Bogaerts will be less than what Boras client Semien got? I don’t see it- Bogaerts is younger, and Boras will surely play up Xander’s “championship winning” bonafides. Maybe he has to settle for a deal like that, but he will start off asking for a lot more.
I could see something like 8/$200 with an opt-out after 4.
maybe structure it like
30/30/30/30/20/20/20/20
These big money short term deals seem to only happen with older high profile pitchers. There’s no reason for a guy like Bogaerts to settle for 4 years, IMO.
I think Bogaerts actually wants to sign in Boston. He's already signed one discount to stay here. 4/80 is too much of a discount.
Also, do you really think Xander would take 8/200 over 4/160? I think you are glossing over that 40 million per year over 25 mil per year part. 4/160 is a ridiculous number. He'd be a FA again at 34. Unless he's completely cooked, he should be able to get more than $40 mil from that point on. Even if he doesn't, it's probably worth the gamble. That's $160 million locked up.
Do you think Bogaerts would take 8/200 over 4/180? 4/190? 4/200? People are always focused on the years but at some point, it would be stupid for the player to turn down a higher annual salary over more guaranteed money. I think 4/160 vs 8/200 is that point, but I'd like to here some arguments on the other side. If 4/160 isn't that point, what is it? 170? 175? 199?
if the 2 best offers for X are 8/200 with some player opt outs and 4/160.. I dunno. He can make $120 mil and opt out. If he's not that good, he can then chose to opt in for the next 4 years at 4/80. Or he can take 4/160, be a FA at the end of year 4 and see if he can find a contract worth more than 4/40 at the end of his age 34 season. So if he took the 8/200 path and was good/opts out, he loses out on $40 million. If he's meh, he opts in and by the end of year 6, would have made 160 million... which he would have been at 2 years ago. I guess it's possible he's absolutely terrible after 4 seasons so he loses out on $40 mil. It would be kind of hard for him not to get more than 4/40.. and again even that does happen, it's worth the gamble. Maybe at that point, he'd rather just retire than grind out 4 meh seasons to make an extra $40 mil.
Taking 8/200 over 4/160 is ultra, ultra conservative for a 30 year old FA. I think 3/120 would be the more interesting number. Could he get more than 80 million after his age 33 season? I think that's far less likely than him making $40 after his age 34. 4/160 is so much money to anyone not signing the 10/300million deals.
I said 6/160 (I was personally thinking 6/150 but I made the money match the 4/160 offer). You said 8/200 with an opt out. We are both at $25 million a year. $40 million is 1.6 times that amount. To reach $200 million, they would have to only add 1 more year. Considering contracts will keep going up, X and Boras would have to be
stupid ultra conservative to take 8/200 over 4/160.
edit: With that said, X isn't taking a 4 year deal because no one is going to pay him $40 mil per to do so. Correa signed for less and is younger, and got 2 opt outs in the process. The argument about who is better now probably has some merit (Correa still had the better peak. X had better WAR totals since 2018. Correa's had better WAR totals since 2020 and the last 3 years are more predictive than the last 5 years so that's a toss) but I can't see X getting much (if any) more than Correa did. 4/160 is literally double what X would get if he opted in.