In my view, everything turns on what the league can prove about that incident with the Pacers. If it is somehow established that Morant was in that vehicle and someone had a gun pointed at the Pacers’ traveling party, then nothing Silver does would surprise me, including banning Morant for life. In the more likely event that what happened that night remains unclear, I think there’s also a wide range of potential outcomes based solely on the Instagram photo, but even in a worst-case scenario he’ll be back to start next season. Whether Morant complied with the CBA provision
@Swedgin cited will matter a lot — though compliance with league rules won’t get him off the hook entirely, as carrying a firearm in a licensed establishment is illegal just about everywhere.