The Celtics Offseason

BigSoxFan

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Plus he gets to keep 9% more of his money
Not directing this just at you but I wish people would stop saying this. Every state in the nation has large budgets that have to be paid from some source, whether it's income tax or property tax or sales tax. Yes, southern states probably have fewer things to pay for (weather causes a lot of expenses) but at the end of the day, according to this article - https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494 - the difference between MA's total tax burden (#20 highest) and FL (#46 highest) is 2.15%.

Plus, as someone mentioned upthread, professional athletes pay taxes in every jurisdiction where they play so at the end of the day, only (approximately) 1/2 of their salary is subject to their home state's income tax.
 

Cellar-Door

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Marks and Lowe went through a ton of Dame stuff on the pod today. Marks seems to think that BOS is a contender IF Wyc is willing to go full Balmer. Lowe wondered if they would consider just doing it then trading one of the non-Dame big money guys down the line.

Marks also was less down on the MIA offer than many. Noted that the trick with OKC isn't to remove the protection from the 2025 pick.... it's to shift it to an unprotected 2026 pick, thereby allowing them to offer Three 1sts (24, 28, 30) the last two of which have some potential to be good. Also thinks MIA might hold out Jacquez and POR might not be that into him as he's more low-ceiling win now.
Basically thinks much of POR willingness to do a deal is based on what 3rd team they can find to add value for Herro (Lowe is a fan, Marks didn't speculate but seemed lower on him)
 

djbayko

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Edit: posted it in the Dame thread.
Getting Dame without giving up Jaylen is insane. I’m not sure how you’d even get a team with two 30-point scorers and two 20-point scorers to even work. I kind of want it to happen just to see NBA fans’ heads explode, but the Celts would probably be a better team if they traded Jaylen and hung onto more role players.
 

BigMike

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Not directing this just at you but I wish people would stop saying this. Every state in the nation has large budgets that have to be paid from some source, whether it's income tax or property tax or sales tax. Yes, southern states probably have fewer things to pay for (weather causes a lot of expenses) but at the end of the day, according to this article - https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494 - the difference between MA's total tax burden (#20 highest) and FL (#46 highest) is 2.15%.

Plus, as someone mentioned upthread, professional athletes pay taxes in every jurisdiction where they play so at the end of the day, only (approximately) 1/2 of their salary is subject to their home state's income tax.
Clicked on the link and to say it is not clear to me what income they are basing this tax burden on. Are they using the NBA threshold of person making 40+ million a year and hitting the extra millionaire tax, or hitting the 14% income tax rate in California,. that I am quite sure that chart was not
 

Average Game James

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Clicked on the link and to say it is not clear to me what income they are basing this tax burden on. Are they using the NBA threshold of person making 40+ million a year and hitting the extra millionaire tax, or hitting the 14% income tax rate in California,. that I am quite sure that chart was not
Not to mention capital gains taxes (none in FL, 5%/12% in MA). That chart might represent the average tax burden but is in no way scaled to what a $50mn+ athlete will pay.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Clicked on the link and to say it is not clear to me what income they are basing this tax burden on. Are they using the NBA threshold of person making 40+ million a year and hitting the extra millionaire tax, or hitting the 14% income tax rate in California,. that I am quite sure that chart was not
Here's some more information I believe: https://taxfoundation.org/tax-burden-by-state-2022/.

My point is that while some states have income tax and others do not, many expenses are the same from state to state and some states have chosen different ways of funding those programs but they still get funded. Athletes pay a metric ton of taxes, including property taxes and sales/excise taxes but I'm sure they don't really see the latter two as much as income tax.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah parsing taxes is pretty tough, FL has less income tax, on the other side of it, Lillard would likely pay way more property tax based on where NBA players live in the Miami area vs. where guys like Tatum live. Either way, I'm pretty sure Max contract guys don't worry as much about taxes as things like weather, social scene, etc.
 

TripleOT

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Using extremely quick math, if Dame plays for four years with the Celtics and makes $210 million, at least $105 million of that would be made in the state of Massachusetts where he’s looking at a 9% tax rate, the 5% tax rate on the first million of each year and a 4% millionaires tax on the rest. So it’s about $9 million net at least to play in Massachusetts instead of Florida, with no state income tax.

I believe athletes who live in states without an income tax have to pay to the states where they play road games. For those living in states with an income tax, those tax payments are deducted from what they’d owe to their home state, and have to pay the difference to their home state, if any. So if Dame lives in Florida and plays two road games in Orlando and three in Texas, he saves around $350k per year in state income tax over living in a tax state like MA. Add the overages on the other 36 road games, where the average state income tax is 5%, and that’s another 4% of $18 million, another $720k per year. That’s another $4 million net over the next four years.

So he’s looking at around $13 million less in net income over the next four years.


Disclaimer: I might have no idea what I’m talking about here. I’m going off memory from when I tried to figure out how much state income tax savings Tom Brady realized when he bolted from MA to FL.
 

Justthetippett

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Exactly. High taxes? Their accountants handle that. It’s cold and everything closes early? That actually affects their day to day lives.
Cold tea in Chinatown and the Glass Slipper is not enough of a draw?

As annoying as it is, I can't blame these guys for wanting to live and play in Miami or LA. Cities like Boston have to sell something else (winning, competence, history, achieving your basketball potential, etc.).
 

BaseballJones

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Getting Dame without giving up Jaylen is insane. I’m not sure how you’d even get a team with two 30-point scorers and two 20-point scorers to even work. I kind of want it to happen just to see NBA fans’ heads explode, but the Celts would probably be a better team if they traded Jaylen and hung onto more role players.
The 1980s Lakers didn't technically have four 20-point scorers, only because there's only one ball to go around. But they absolutely had four guys capable of being 20+ (a couple even 30+ scorers) a night.

1986-87 Lakers

Magic: 16.4 FGA, .525 eFG, 23.9 points (1.46 points/FGA)
Worthy: 14.7 FGA, .539 eFG, 19.4 points (1.32 points/FGA)
Kareem: 12.7 FGA, .564 eFG, 17.5 points (1.38 points/FGA)
Scott: 13.8 FGA, .517 eFG, 17.0 points (1.23 points/FGA)

Just for some reference as to how good these guys were, Jamal Murray averaged 20.0 points a game this year on 16.0 FGA and .494 eFG (1.25 points/FGA). So if you let any of these four guys get 16 FGA per game, they're averaging 20 or more points:

Magic: 23.4
Worthy: 21.1
Kareem: 22.1
Scott: 19.7 (close enough)

And Murray is considered a really good scorer in today's NBA. Moreover:

- Magic averaged 20+ points 4 times.
- Worthy averaged 20+ points 4 times.
- Kareem averaged 20+ points 17 times. 30+ points 4 times.
- Scott averaged 20+ points 1 time. AS THE FOURTH OPTION. (though maybe by then he was the third option)

The point is, they absolutely made it work with four extremely high level scorers, but it took them being willing to sacrifice their own personal stats for the good of the team. And it helped that they had maybe the best point guard in NBA history running the show and distributing and making sure they all got their shots.

But Lillard is excellent in this regard as well. He would have the ability to do that, as long as he didn't have to be the Alpha scorer as well.
 

the moops

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Marks and Lowe went through a ton of Dame stuff on the pod today. Marks seems to think that BOS is a contender IF Wyc is willing to go full Balmer. Lowe wondered if they would consider just doing it then trading one of the non-Dame big money guys down the line.

Marks also was less down on the MIA offer than many. Noted that the trick with OKC isn't to remove the protection from the 2025 pick.... it's to shift it to an unprotected 2026 pick, thereby allowing them to offer Three 1sts (24, 28, 30) the last two of which have some potential to be good. Also thinks MIA might hold out Jacquez and POR might not be that into him as he's more low-ceiling win now.
Basically thinks much of POR willingness to do a deal is based on what 3rd team they can find to add value for Herro (Lowe is a fan, Marks didn't speculate but seemed lower on him)
Just an FYI but it was Hollinger, not Marks
 

Euclis20

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The 2020 Celtics didn't have any scorers as good as Tatum or Lillard right now, but we had 4 guys all capable of scoring 20+. Tatum (23.4), Walker (20.4), Brown (20.3) and Hayward (17.5) were all capable of being the leading scorer. In order, those guys led the team in scoring 28, 16, 14, and 10 times (regular season only). That seems pretty balanced.
 

Euclis20

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J-Lo might be hiding her age like a pitcher from the Dominican Republic too.

But she does look very good for whatever age she is.
 

PedroKsBambino

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So, remaining FAs who you’d think about for the taxpayer MLE or part of it…

Kelly Oubre (surely looking for more minutes, but hard to say what’s out there for him)
Terrence Davis
Justice Winslow (for old times sake—-not a bad gamble on his health if it’s a true deep backup)
Will Barton
Javonte Green (would likely come for not much over minimum)
Kendrick Nunn
Dario Saric (sort of interesting double-down on spacing bigs, but doesn’t add a thing defensively or rebounding)
Trendon Watford (arguably should be below)

And the can’t shoot group, but you can get away with one of them in the rotation:

Frank Ntilikina (the homeless man’s pat bev)
Hamadou Diallo
 

Cellar-Door

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So, remaining FAs who you’d think about for the taxpayer MLE or part of it…

Kelly Oubre (surely looking for more minutes, but hard to say what’s out there for him)
Terrence Davis
Justice Winslow (for old times sake—-not a bad gamble on his health if it’s a true deep backup)
Will Barton
Javonte Green (would likely come for not much over minimum)
Kendrick Nunn
Dario Saric (sort of interesting double-down on spacing bigs, but doesn’t add a thing defensively or rebounding)
Trendon Watford (arguably should be below)

And the can’t shoot group, but you can get away with one of them in the rotation:

Frank Ntilikina (the homeless man’s pat bev)
Hamadou Diallo
I think they're going straight minimums, don't think anyone out there worth being hard-capped for.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I had thought they got far enough under to use it as part of a Grant trade; will have to see where I read that. A bummer the extra money from Smart to Brogdon may impact that—then again, so many more important variables as part of all that.

They did offer some MLE money to Pat Bev, so they are either willing to do it or (I think more likely) they beleive they can offload someone with a second?

Anyway, not sure any of those guys are huge needle-movers and I do think some will sign as vet mins anyway, so may be irrelevant. They need to add 1 wing, ideally someone who can play 10 minutes in a playoff game…and (skill wise) would be good to have a passer, a shooter, and a wing defender…one or two skills will come from adding a player, and have to hope the younger guys or in-season fills rest of that bill. They are thin right now
 

mcpickl

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I had thought they got far enough under to use it as part of a Grant trade; will have to see where I read that. A bummer the extra money from Smart to Brogdon may impact that—then again, so many more important variables as part of all that.

They did offer some MLE money to Pat Bev, so they are either willing to do it or (I think more likely) they beleive they can offload someone with a second?

Anyway, not sure any of those guys are huge needle-movers and I do think some will sign as vet mins anyway, so may be irrelevant. They need to add 1 wing, ideally someone who can play 10 minutes in a playoff game…and (skill wise) would be good to have a passer, a shooter, and a wing defender…one or two skills will come from adding a player, and have to hope the younger guys or in-season fills rest of that bill. They are thin right now
I would guess if Pat Bev was coming in, they would've had Pritchard going out somewhere.

If they took back no salary, that would've given them enough breathing room to sign Beverly using the MLE and fill out the rest of the roster with minimums.

I still think one of Pritchard or Brogdon will be dealt this summer.
 

Cellar-Door

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I had thought they got far enough under to use it as part of a Grant trade; will have to see where I read that. A bummer the extra money from Smart to Brogdon may impact that—then again, so many more important variables as part of all that.

They did offer some MLE money to Pat Bev, so they are either willing to do it or (I think more likely) they beleive they can offload someone with a second?

Anyway, not sure any of those guys are huge needle-movers and I do think some will sign as vet mins anyway, so may be irrelevant. They need to add 1 wing, ideally someone who can play 10 minutes in a playoff game…and (skill wise) would be good to have a passer, a shooter, and a wing defender…one or two skills will come from adding a player, and have to hope the younger guys or in-season fills rest of that bill. They are thin right now
Probably someone wasn't counting the empty roster holds/cap holds for Kabengele, Davison and Blake.

I think hypothetically if they renounced all 3 and filled those spots with undrafted FAs they'd be under enough, but they aren't doing that.

Either way, hard cp
 

PedroKsBambino

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I would guess if Pat Bev was coming in, they would've had Pritchard going out somewhere.

If they took back no salary, that would've given them enough breathing room to sign Beverly using the MLE and fill out the rest of the roster with minimums.

I still think one of Pritchard or Brogdon will be dealt this summer.
Feels like they need to add a defensive wing; if they can do that on vet min, would like to keep both shooters. Hard to know what the market looks like for the guys left—-especially someone with relationships like Javonte. Plenty of similar (or better) players already signed vet mins, and it is a title contender, so we’ll see what they can do.

They also may really believe in Brissett.
 
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mcpickl

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Feels like they need to add a defensive wing; if they can do that on vet min, would like to keep both shooters. Hard to know what the market looks like for the guys left—-especially someone with relationships like Javonte. Plenty of similar (or better) players already signed vet mins, and it is a title contender, so we’ll see what they can do.
I think they have a greater need to add a defensive guard.

Having both Brogdon and Pritchard in their rotation as presently built is rough defensively. I think they'd like to play Brown to take more guard minutes, but unless the bigs are healthy all year I think he'll still end up seeing a lot of time at the wing.

I also think having the extra shooting/scoring off the bench will be a little less critical this season, since Porzingis should pick up some of that slack when one of Brown/Tatum are off the floor.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think they have a greater need to add a defensive guard.

Having both Brogdon and Pritchard in their rotation as presently built is rough defensively. I think they'd like to play Brown to take more guard minutes, but unless the bigs are healthy all year I think he'll still end up seeing a lot of time at the wing.

I also think having the extra shooting/scoring off the bench will be a little less critical this season, since Porzingis should pick up some of that slack when one of Brown/Tatum are off the floor.
Javonte is more guard than wing in terms of defender.

Pelicans are looking to move Kira Lewis, so he may be available on the cheap and fits into the TPE.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think they have a greater need to add a defensive guard.

Having both Brogdon and Pritchard in their rotation as presently built is rough defensively. I think they'd like to play Brown to take more guard minutes, but unless the bigs are healthy all year I think he'll still end up seeing a lot of time at the wing.

I also think having the extra shooting/scoring off the bench will be a little less critical this season, since Porzingis should pick up some of that slack when one of Brown/Tatum are off the floor.
I agree, though they may have more hope for Brogdon defensively than we do. Many of the decent defensive wings are credible 1-3, that’s part of why I see that as a need. I do think it’s a smaller wing that is the bigger need, in part for this reason. Hopefully Tatum can get Javonte to sign up!

White is an outstanding defensive guard and they are planning on big minutes for him. But beyond him, it’s thin
 

Cellar-Door

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So with Grant gone, I think it's interesting to look at the offseason and see where we are.

So looking at the top 10 (you usually go no more than 9 deep, often 7 or 8 in games that matter)....

I see 5 guys who are in the exact same slot they were in the ideal lineup (late 76ers series, MIA setup before Brogdon injury)
TL as C, Tatum as SF, Brown as SG, Brogdon 6th man, Hauser 10th man. You could argue Pritchard as 9th man, but skipping him for now.
Then I see 2 clear upgrades... Porzingis at PF and Horford as 8th man/1st bench big.
Then we have 1 spot I think is a small upgrade, but others might see as a wash... White replacing Smart.

So far it looks like a big improvement, improved 2-3 of the top 8
BUT....7th man... also known as swing guard/wing (starting at times to keep 6th man in his role)....
White was amazing, now it's either going to be someone not on the roster yet (vet min guy, TPE guy?, trade... which messes up some of the other spots potentially) or it's PP.

So overall..... I still think the team is probably better, but there is a real potential weakness in that spot. The front court is much improved, but the backcourt depth is a bit shaky.

Now, you sign Javonte Green, or similar... I think that's a better overall team than last year... you play Pritchard 25 MPG...not as convinced.
 

benhogan

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Joe had Jaylen guard ball handlers quite a bit last season, so wouldn't expect to see PP & Brogdon on the floor together in late/tight (& never in the playoffs)

If they add Javonte Green + frontcourt help they'll be in good shape
 

TripleOT

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So with Grant gone, I think it's interesting to look at the offseason and see where we are.

So looking at the top 10 (you usually go no more than 9 deep, often 7 or 8 in games that matter)....

I see 5 guys who are in the exact same slot they were in the ideal lineup (late 76ers series, MIA setup before Brogdon injury)
TL as C, Tatum as SF, Brown as SG, Brogdon 6th man, Hauser 10th man. You could argue Pritchard as 9th man, but skipping him for now.
Then I see 2 clear upgrades... Porzingis at PF and Horford as 8th man/1st bench big.
Then we have 1 spot I think is a small upgrade, but others might see as a wash... White replacing Smart.

So far it looks like a big improvement, improved 2-3 of the top 8
BUT....7th man... also known as swing guard/wing (starting at times to keep 6th man in his role)....
White was amazing, now it's either going to be someone not on the roster yet (vet min guy, TPE guy?, trade... which messes up some of the other spots potentially) or it's PP.

So overall..... I still think the team is probably better, but there is a real potential weakness in that spot. The front court is much improved, but the backcourt depth is a bit shaky.

Now, you sign Javonte Green, or similar... I think that's a better overall team than last year... you play Pritchard 25 MPG...not as convinced.
Or you just move Hauser to the 7th man and try to outscore your opponents.

Not getting a rotation piece for Grant Williams hurts. Will Brissett be ready for rotation minutes on a title contender? Can Champagnie contribute (if he makes the roster)? Will Boston just give regular season minutes out to the young guys at the back of the rotation, then find a buyout vet wing and or PG for the playoff run?
 

Cellar-Door

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Or you just move Hauser to the 7th man and try to outscore your opponents.

Not getting a rotation piece for Grant Williams hurts. Will Brissett be ready for rotation minutes on a title contender? Can Champagnie contribute (if he makes the roster)? Will Boston just give regular season minutes out to the young guys at the back of the rotation, then find a buyout vet wing and or PG for the playoff run?
Yeah, I think everyone might just slide up a spot, really depends on (assuming not big trade) what they do with what I assume is one more vet addition. Honestly if it's Javonte Green on the minimum I think he slots right into the White spot, doesn't give you everything, but he's a potentially elite defender with a decent enough low volume 3pt shot. I think he'll wait a while because honestly he should get more than the minimum, but question is whether all the money dries up among good teams and he has to decide whether to sign with a contender on the minimum or a lesser team for a bit more.
 

the moops

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Joe had Jaylen guard ball handlers quite a bit last season, so wouldn't expect to see PP & Brogdon on the floor together in late/tight (& never in the playoffs)

If they add Javonte Green + frontcourt help they'll be in good shape
How about Javonte's teammate Derrick Jones Jr?
 

HomeRunBaker

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The lifestyle down in Miami versus freezing his ass off in Boston in January/February might have more to do with it if it were my guess. I think most guys in the league would want to go there if they had a choice.
I've done both. If I had to guess this is at the top of the list. The difference in quality of life from Nov-March is pretty large.
 

bsj

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It's starting to feel like the Celtics are now in need of another significant move. I could see the Smart for Kristaps thing being a perceived upgrade. But if Dame does go to Miami, and C's are basically +Kristaps and - Smart and Williams....that doesn't feel like they are closer to a title.
 

jezza1918

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It's starting to feel like the Celtics are now in need of another significant move. I could see the Smart for Kristaps thing being a perceived upgrade. But if Dame does go to Miami, and C's are basically +Kristaps and - Smart and Williams....that doesn't feel like they are closer to a title.
I think a couple things are worth adding here, even though I do agree with your final point. The Heat have already swapped out some role players - I think basically Vincent/Strus for Richardson/Bryant. Not sure how that shakes out for them. But even if that's basically a wash, if they do get Dame they are losing other role players, right? Not that they wouldn't be better, but they'd no doubt be sacrificing depth and their two best players will be 33/34 next season. On Celtics side, even if they nothing significant the glass half full side is that the Jays duo are just at the start of their primes, and both have room to get better.
 

chilidawg

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It's starting to feel like the Celtics are now in need of another significant move. I could see the Smart for Kristaps thing being a perceived upgrade. But if Dame does go to Miami, and C's are basically +Kristaps and - Smart and Williams....that doesn't feel like they are closer to a title.
Brisset, Banton and Walsh not moving the needle for you?
 

Leon Trotsky

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Some of the chatter in here about Grant Williams is really weird to me. The C's essentially massively upgraded Grant into Porzingis, at the expense of some of the redundancy they had at guard. Its unfortunate that it cost Marcus, but I think it is clear the team is much better, even sans Marcus and Grant.
 

Cellar-Door

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One thing I'd note (beyond that I think the team likely is better)... we had the best roster in the league last year, talent was not the reason we didn't win, it was execution, injuries, running into a team on an all-time heater from 3, all the stuff that happens. We weren't going to get MUCH more talented roster-wise this year off being the best, deepest roster in the league.

Some of the chatter in here about Grant Williams is really weird to me. The C's essentially massively upgraded Grant into Porzingis, at the expense of some of the redundancy they had at guard. Its unfortunate that it cost Marcus, but I think it is clear the team is much better, even sans Marcus and Grant.
I generally think of it more as.. we upgraded Horford, which slides Horford into Grant's role, and Horford (even at his age) is MUCH better than Grant.

I find the "who will guard these big athletic guys off the bench"... uh Al Horford, who we had doing it as a starter because he's better at it than Grant. "who will shoot the wide open 3s off the bench".... Al Horford, who is better at it than Grant. Grant's role went to Al, who is much better than him, and it did that because we added a guy who was a top 25ish player last year, and basically does most of the stuff Al can do at a higher level.
 

brendan f

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I find the "who will guard these big athletic guys off the bench"... uh Al Horford, who we had doing it as a starter because he's better at it than Grant. "who will shoot the wide open 3s off the bench".... Al Horford, who is better at it than Grant. Grant's role went to Al, who is much better than him, and it did that because we added a guy who was a top 25ish player last year, and basically does most of the stuff Al can do at a higher level.
Good point.
One thing I'd note (beyond that I think the team likely is better)... we had the best roster in the league last year, talent was not the reason we didn't win, it was execution, injuries, running into a team on an all-time heater from 3, all the stuff that happens. We weren't going to get MUCH more talented roster-wise this year off being the best, deepest roster in the league.
I think it was mostly realizing that Tatum needed help. He isn't elite enough (top 10, not top 5 player) to be reliably great all of the time, so needed another player to help with spacing and force teams to guard other players, especially down the stretch. The idea with landing KP is that he makes Brown and Tatum better; that can't be said as much for Marcus, and it certainly can't be said for Grant.
 
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4 6 3 DP

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Not directing this just at you but I wish people would stop saying this. Every state in the nation has large budgets that have to be paid from some source, whether it's income tax or property tax or sales tax. Yes, southern states probably have fewer things to pay for (weather causes a lot of expenses) but at the end of the day, according to this article - https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494 - the difference between MA's total tax burden (#20 highest) and FL (#46 highest) is 2.15%.

Plus, as someone mentioned upthread, professional athletes pay taxes in every jurisdiction where they play so at the end of the day, only (approximately) 1/2 of their salary is subject to their home state's income tax.
Listen to his own comments - he thinks he's keeping more. Not making a political comment, but the idea that local/state/federal tax considerations don't weigh into business decisions on a daily basis for many people, be they pro athletes or investment bankers, is inaccurate.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
33,862
Some of the chatter in here about Grant Williams is really weird to me. The C's essentially massively upgraded Grant into Porzingis, at the expense of some of the redundancy they had at guard. Its unfortunate that it cost Marcus, but I think it is clear the team is much better, even sans Marcus and Grant.
Some people are convinced KP will be chronically injured or just plain "soft" in the playoffs. It's a narrative / fan bias not going away for those people until proven otherwise.