Oh right.... well, that's still a concern, could move on from Fields or recoup picks.Chicago owns their pick
I believe in their ability to lose.Yeah people forget how random the end of the season can be. As long as teams are in games, there is a good chance of any given sunday happening once or twice in 6/7 games.
Same thing could happen for the Patriots of course.
Quiet you with your pessimismGiants, Chargers, Broncos, Jets, and Steelers are all winnable games. Wouldn’t be surprised if they won 1-2 of them.
Agreed. Three of their last four losses were by one possession, as well.Giants, Chargers, Broncos, Jets, and Steelers are all winnable games. Wouldn’t be surprised if they won 1-2 of them.
Devito was 18/26 for 246 yards with 3 TDs and no picks. Sure, the DC defense stinks, but Mac didn't come close to that line against them a couple of weeks ago (24-44, 220 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Hope springs eternal.Devito and Boyle/Wilson aren't leading their teams to 20+ points
They only had one practice because it was the bye week, and the media saw only 6 snaps, right? I fully expect to see a different starter next Sunday.Despite that, he was taking 1st team reps at their practice this week.
Or not, because those teams will trade out with other QB-hungry teams if they are picking 1 or 2. The Bears obviously played things well last year in that respect. Very difficult to project.Kyler Murray and Justin Fields balling out to finish the season would help the Patriots tremendously even if it doesn't manifest into wins for the Cardinals and Bears.
Last year the Patriots had 7 defensive TDs, this year they have 0. I don't think there is a lot of skill involved in that difference, I think they got lucky last year (part of the reason I was predicting 6-7 wins this year) and are unlucky so far this year.I don’t really get how anyone could have watched 10 games from this team and have any thought that they could pull out a win. Yes, the defense is good but they’re hampered by injuries and none of the wounded are coming back. They’ve just released one of their starters and still run Myles Bryant out for significant snaps.
The offense is fresh off a game where they put up 6 points and benched their starter at the 2:00 warning for a possible game winning drive.
Despite that, he was taking 1st team reps at their practice this week.
They’re lucky if they win one of their teaming games.
Aren't the Patriots one of said QB hungry teams? Much easier to get a QB at 3 if the two teams drafting ahead of you believe they have a guy at the position regardless.Or not, because those teams will trade out with other QB-hungry teams if they are picking 1 or 2. The Bears obviously played things well last year in that respect. Very difficult to project.
Confirmed! Or the Pats are forced to trade up themselves.I think the worry being conveyed is the Pats are at 3 and if CHI/ARI decide to stick with Fields/Kyler, they could trade back and a QB needy team jumps ahead of NE.
It’s actually my preferred one. Not sold on Maye or Williams at all.Or they end up with MHJ and a Pennix type a little later. That’s hardly a nightmare scenario.
But how is that worry bigger than if Chicago and Arizona need a QB themselves?I think the worry being conveyed is the Pats are at 3 and if CHI/ARI decide to stick with Fields/Kyler, they could trade back and a QB needy team jumps ahead of NE.
It's not a bigger worry. It's the same worry. They won't be able to pick the guy they want if they are third in line.But how is that worry bigger than if Chicago and Arizona need a QB themselves?
I think the risk with MHJ and “second tier” QB plan is that they’d probably have to be aggressive at moving up to get that guy which will cost quite a bit of draft capitalIt's not a bigger worry. It's the same worry. They won't be able to pick the guy they want if they are third in line.
I also think MHJ plus a second tier QB prospect could be a great outcome. Just don't subject MHJ to Mac.
Just trade up, then. Why is everyone else who needs a QB allowed to trade up for one? And the bust rate on QBs outside the top 15 is just monumental. Just grab your guy at the top.It's not a bigger worry. It's the same worry. They won't be able to pick the guy they want if they are third in line.
I also think MHJ plus a second tier QB prospect could be a great outcome. Just don't subject MHJ to Mac.
Yeah trading up in the 1st to get the top QB (or 2nd) on your board makes sense. Trading into the 1st again to get the 4th/5th on your board makes a lot less sense.I think the risk with MHJ and “second tier” QB plan is that they’d probably have to be aggressive at moving up to get that guy which will cost quite a bit of draft capital
waiting to see if a McCarthy or Nix drops to the 2nd seems too risky.
And if the Pats trade up from #4 to #2, the additional cost won't be nearly as much as if they had to trade up from, say, #13 to #2. But I'm ok with MHJ at #3 and then a QB with their 2nd pick.Just trade up, then. Why is everyone else who needs a QB allowed to trade up for one? And the bust rate on QBs outside the top 15 is just monumental. Just grab your guy at the top.
As much as they do need help everywhere, if they use their top pick (say a top 5 pick) on an edge rusher, I'd be really unhappy with that. They need way way more help on offense than they do on defense.The Patriots aren't in any position to be picky about what position or side of the ball they take at the top of the draft this year. If it's a QB or an OL, great and offense would certainly be my priority. However, given how poor the state of the roster is they should be in BPA mode all draft long. They need help everywhere. If they take any one of Marvin Harrison, one of the 2 QBs, Joe Alt/Olu Fashanu, Brock Bowers, or even an edge guy like Dallas Turner or Laiatu Latu it will be a much needed influx of talent at that particular position.
Yeah for anybody thinking of about MHJ and then QB I'd try this exercise... List your top 6 QBs in the order you prefer them. Would you be happy with #6? If not you're going to need a significant trade up into the 1st.It seems possible that all the “second round” quarterbacks end up getting drafted in the back half of the first. There’s certainly a demand for them.
1. WilliamsYeah for anybody thinking of about MHJ and then QB I'd try this exercise... List your top 6 QBs in the order you prefer them. Would you be happy with #6? If not you're going to need a significant trade up into the 1st.
Pats will likely be picking at the top of the second round so the cost to trade back into the first to pick Daniels, Pennix, etc. may not be all that great. But your point holds. There will be some cost and QBs are almost always overdrafted, particularly in R1 to lock in the fifth year option. I personally would rather they go all in on a QB and the Oline at the draft. MHJ is an amazing talent but this team needs many more offensive pieces.Yeah for anybody thinking of about MHJ and then QB I'd try this exercise... List your top 6 QBs in the order you prefer them. Would you be happy with #6? If not you're going to need a significant trade up into the 1st.
That's the key. If you feel like all these guys are similar prospects then it doesn't make sense to grab a QB early. Either pick someone else and look to trade back up or trade down picking up some extra pieces while still getting a QB you like. However if you have 1 or 2 of them on a different tier, you don't mess around if you can grab them.None of these QB prospects is "can't miss", and reading the scouting reports on Nix, it SEEMS like he's as reasonable bet as any of these guys to make it at the next level.
My understanding on the Nix negatives are:1. Williams
2. Maye
3. Penix
4. Daniels
5. McCarthy
6. Sanders (but I think he'll stay in school)
7. Nix
8. Ewers
So would I be ok with, say, MHJ and Nix as opposed to, say, Maye and Johnny Wilson (WR from FSU)?
What's the downside to Nix? Right now I'm seeing these numbers: 282-361 (78.1%), 3,539 yds, 9.8 y/a, 35 td, 2 int. None of these QB prospects is "can't miss", and reading the scouting reports on Nix, it SEEMS like he's as reasonable bet as any of these guys to make it at the next level. But I know a lot of people here are down on him.
His last 2 seasons: 74.8%, 64 td, 2 int, 9.3 y/a, and just 5 sacks taken. Those numbers are absolutely off the charts.
Makes sense. But in terms of his decision making... He has thrown two (!!!!) interceptions in his 770 pass attempts over the last two years. That's......absurd, no matter who Oregon is playing. Whatever kind of mistakes he's making....he's not throwing many incompletions (he completes 3 of every 4 passes), and virtually no interceptions.My understanding on the Nix negatives are:
Some concern that his big jump after moving to Oregon is system based.
Uses sideline cues, some concerns over ability to process pre-snap.
Deep ball accuracy is not great
Footwork and pocket presence under pressure are concerns
decision making was a huge issue at Auburn, and still shows up at time in Oregon (where there is less pressure and a loaded team).
Also a lot of people talk about him as not really being able to read a defense or go through progressions. Basically a Justin Fields type issue.
The problem is these QBs could end up going in the middle of round 1. I don't think you can plan around drafting them, so if they fall great, if they don't the cost to trade up could actually be pretty significant from where the Pats pick in R2 or they could look at vets like Cousins or for a longer-term answer maybe Kyler Murray, who would cost draft picks, assuming the Cardinals want a fresh start (and I know Kyler is not the superstar everyone thought he would be given he was the number 1 pick and he plays Call of Duty, and he's short but perfect is the enemy of good...)Pats will likely be picking at the top of the second round so the cost to trade back into the first to pick Daniels, Pennix, etc. may not be all that great. But your point holds. There will be some cost and QBs are almost always overdrafted, particularly in R1 to lock in the fifth year option. I personally would rather they go all in on a QB and the Oline at the draft. MHJ is an amazing talent but this team needs many more offensive pieces.
Breakdowns will start coming out closer to the draft. He's a 1st round type prospect so lot of good there. I'd say that Oregon has a lot of designed 1 read stuff where he's throwing to open WRs short and let them make things happen. Also, a thing that we discussed in the lead-up to drafting Mac... the number of NFL comp plays in a college season can be really low for these guys on loaded teams. They might only face real pressure a few times a year. Have a lot of wide open guys, huge WR mismatches, etc.Makes sense. But in terms of his decision making... He has thrown two (!!!!) interceptions in his 770 pass attempts over the last two years. That's......absurd, no matter who Oregon is playing. Whatever kind of mistakes he's making....he's not throwing many incompletions (he completes 3 of every 4 passes), and virtually no interceptions.
And it's not like he was bad at Auburn. 628-1,057 (59.4%), 7,251 yds, 6.9 y/a, 39 td, 9 int
Obviously nothing close to what he's become at Oregon, but some of that could just be...maturity and growth as a player too, right? I know his schedule is easier than it was at Auburn. But he's also older now.
I'm not trying to make the case FOR Nix. I just know that people here are down on him and then I started looking at his actual performance, and his numbers just POP.
Alabama | SEC | JR | QB | 13 | 311 | 402 | 77.4 | 4500 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 41 | 4 | 203.1 |
Oregon | Pac-12 | SR | QB | 11 | 282 | 361 | 78.1 | 3539 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 35 | 2 | 191.4 |
Ohio State | Big Ten | SO | QB | 14 | 238 | 354 | 67.2 | 3273 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 41 | 3 | 181.4 |
Brigham Young | Ind | JR | QB | 12 | 247 | 336 | 73.5 | 3692 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 33 | 3 | 196.4 |
Bo Nix is 17 months younger than Mac Jones and has started more games at QB than any college player ever. I think he is a man playing amongst boys on a stacked team. I think much like Mac Jones his college stats won't translate well to NFL because he is already playing with the best WR corp he will in the NFL.Makes sense. But in terms of his decision making... He has thrown two (!!!!) interceptions in his 770 pass attempts over the last two years. That's......absurd, no matter who Oregon is playing. Whatever kind of mistakes he's making....he's not throwing many incompletions (he completes 3 of every 4 passes), and virtually no interceptions.
And it's not like he was bad at Auburn. 628-1,057 (59.4%), 7,251 yds, 6.9 y/a, 39 td, 9 int
Obviously nothing close to what he's become at Oregon, but some of that could just be...maturity and growth as a player too, right? I know his schedule is easier than it was at Auburn. But he's also older now.
I'm not trying to make the case FOR Nix. I just know that people here are down on him and then I started looking at his actual performance, and his numbers just POP.
This is the knock I keep hearing on him, and certainly the evaluation will have to take it into account. But how much does this really weigh against him? Do his physical tools translate to the next level (unlike Mac)?Bo Nix is 17 months younger than Mac Jones and has started more games at QB than any college player ever. I think he is a man playing amongst boys on a stacked team. I think much like Mac Jones his college stats won't translate well to NFL because he is already playing with the best WR corp he will in the NFL.
Yeah, totally possible. There must be reasons why he isn't like a top 10 prospect right now, despite the overwhelming numbers.Bo Nix is 17 months younger than Mac Jones and has started more games at QB than any college player ever. I think he is a man playing amongst boys on a stacked team. I think much like Mac Jones his college stats won't translate well to NFL because he is already playing with the best WR corp he will in the NFL.
well Latu would certainly check the box of “major medical red flag” that Belichick has often overlooked in rounds 1 and 2.As much as they do need help everywhere, if they use their top pick (say a top 5 pick) on an edge rusher, I'd be really unhappy with that. They need way way more help on offense than they do on defense.
Is this true for the first round? I thought they were fairly conservative in round 1. Rounds 2 on is where the Pats took chances. I remember Easley had some health concerns. Not remembering off hand anyone else. Who am I missing?well Latu would certainly check the box of “major medical red flag” that Belichick has often overlooked in rounds 1 and 2.
I think this is generally correct. Gronk is always the guy one can point to as 1st round talent that dropped to round 2 based on his back injuries in college. For round 1, Chandler Jones was considered a bit of a risk, and likely dropped somewhat due to his college injuries: https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2012cjones.phpIs this true for the first round? I thought they were fairly conservative in round 1. Rounds 2 on is where the Pats took chances. I remember Easley had some health concerns. Not remembering off hand anyone else. Who am I missing?