Are you surprised the total is 234? Seems like you might have a bit more of a playoff vibe to this one with more intense defense? I was thinking it would be closer to 220 when posted...
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Yes I agree it may be a bit high and that variables are not being taken into account with the Total. Having said that, I can see a focused Celtics team dropping 130 on their own with their 3-balls >50% so not touching that.
Identifying emotional highs and lows for NBA players is much more significant than plus/minus bs. I'm great at this from a team/game perspective but for some reason it does not translate well at all when it comes to player props. I file this under "Stay in my lane." I'd reach out to @CaptainLaddie or @Brand Name over me in this area.
Thought about this too but the DK numbers suck IMO. The only semi-intriguing thing I saw was 2+ steals at +240. He has only done it once this year but I guess if you think he's going to be ultra motivated on defense tonight you could justify taking a small shot.
I think I'd be looking at 3-pt made rather than defensive props for individual Celtics. Something like Kristaps and Jrue O2.5 each for a juicy parlay. I'd imagine that would be a good price maybe +600?
No stance on either of these. And I love a good revenge game too. With Tatum in but potential limited those touches go to Brown. Jrue props aren’t my lean as much, either way.
Thanks for the tag here, HRB.
LTP, going to teach you and everyone else about how these prop prices are derived that aren’t my company’s. They’re more exploitable than you think
Good lord I hate last second baskets and pointless fouling!!!! Had Bucks under team totals 112.5 and 114.5.
Very early Friday start for a very motivated Magic team on Friday.
HRB, cause for concern? I know you have early game research (low score? home team bias?)
HRB, cause for concern? I know you have early game research (low score? home team bias?)
Low scoring day games are the norm as teams typically don't push pace as much. Orlando plays to low scores bc they have arguably the best defensive team in the league now that Suggs is healthy and leading that charge. I don't imagine the Celtics will be up for an afternoon game after having geared all their energy this past week on the Bucks game. I'll expect low scoring and likely a Magic win but a tight game either way.
Alright a little Thanksgiving day speculation fun…
Any thoughts on the following combo for a divisional winner parlay:
Celtics -500
Magic +350
Rockets +600
total parlay is about 37-1. My thoughts:
- Celtics seem like a lock to run away with it. If you remove them it’s 30-1.
- Rockets and Magic both have the best point differential in their divisions. Both are playing with that high defensive intensity mindset that tends to take the regular season more seriously.
- Main goal of this is that as we get closer to the end of the season if one of Hou/Mia can continue to play like this and the other merely stays “in it” you should have some good hedging/Arb opportunities given the original 37-1 parlay.
Too much of a long shot?
edit - Rockets just moved to +700
Any thoughts on the following combo for a divisional winner parlay:
Celtics -500
Magic +350
Rockets +600
total parlay is about 37-1. My thoughts:
- Celtics seem like a lock to run away with it. If you remove them it’s 30-1.
- Rockets and Magic both have the best point differential in their divisions. Both are playing with that high defensive intensity mindset that tends to take the regular season more seriously.
- Main goal of this is that as we get closer to the end of the season if one of Hou/Mia can continue to play like this and the other merely stays “in it” you should have some good hedging/Arb opportunities given the original 37-1 parlay.
Too much of a long shot?
edit - Rockets just moved to +700
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The Magic are also a very good team. They made a huge leap last year that was hidden by their early season injuries burying them in the standings. I posted a few weeks ago their division odds on the Heat fade. The Celtics will probably open as like a 4-4.5 pt favorite which to me is nuts. I'd have Magic at a solid 55-57% to win this one in Florida.
That parlay is live for that price. Rockets need to figure out how to close games out on the road (0-5) with 4 of those losses all winnable games down the stretch. They are another team people are overlooking based off last seasons record.
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Yeah, I enjoy prop bets even though they can be quite frustrating. Would love to know more. I was right on the Holiday defense props but his offense sucked again. Celtics offense is so varied that it’s hard to nail down who shows up on a given night.
Okay, so...
What you should know is that most places use a simple, external provider on prop bets. DraftKings is exclusively Swish, short for SwishAnalytics. They're pretty much flawed but they're cheap and do the job well enough to be outsourced. There are other sources, like how ESPN Bet is Penn in the overall, who also does The Score and used to do Barstool's numbers. Kambi is a common provider of odds too, and they're usually very easy to beat. DraftKings uses them albeit not for props, but in the US, here's some outs that use their services: 888bet, PARX, Unibet.
The real value secret with such props is to the under, just because of the way the general population thinks:
If a company, DraftKings, is offering a bunch of different prop offerings, the public is going to pick the over, because they want to root for something to happen. So it's ultimately a greater liability to the company as a result. The amount of people who take the unders on these things are a lot smaller, so the price you're getting is far likely to be closer to internal probability, not to mention oftentimes less juice. And that's without touching how you model it. Or pay for a worthwhile, successful service like an Establish the Run, they're pretty amazing.
It bears repeating: Shop your books. There's no reason not to have an odds screen up if this is viable for you in your state, to ensure you get the best price. It sounds small the differences you'd make/gain or lose but it adds up fast over time. It takes that much little effort to be that much more profitable in the long run.
Check out this Wemby play for 3s made tomorrow. Without even taking a stance, look at the difference this makes: If you like his over, you're laying 10 less cents to do the same thing at Pointsbet/Fanatics than you would be at BetMGM. Should that lose, you just saved yourself a little more than 7% of your cost and lay. If you like his under? You got to DraftKings or BetMGM and get five cents more, or 5% more just for shopping with them. It's coupon clipping but with sports bets. If you wagered, say, $100 on this prop and the under hit, that's $5 for doing very little. And $100 is often on the lower end of bets, so you can see why this matters and adds up fast, yeah?
What you should know is that most places use a simple, external provider on prop bets. DraftKings is exclusively Swish, short for SwishAnalytics. They're pretty much flawed but they're cheap and do the job well enough to be outsourced. There are other sources, like how ESPN Bet is Penn in the overall, who also does The Score and used to do Barstool's numbers. Kambi is a common provider of odds too, and they're usually very easy to beat. DraftKings uses them albeit not for props, but in the US, here's some outs that use their services: 888bet, PARX, Unibet.
The real value secret with such props is to the under, just because of the way the general population thinks:
If a company, DraftKings, is offering a bunch of different prop offerings, the public is going to pick the over, because they want to root for something to happen. So it's ultimately a greater liability to the company as a result. The amount of people who take the unders on these things are a lot smaller, so the price you're getting is far likely to be closer to internal probability, not to mention oftentimes less juice. And that's without touching how you model it. Or pay for a worthwhile, successful service like an Establish the Run, they're pretty amazing.
It bears repeating: Shop your books. There's no reason not to have an odds screen up if this is viable for you in your state, to ensure you get the best price. It sounds small the differences you'd make/gain or lose but it adds up fast over time. It takes that much little effort to be that much more profitable in the long run.
Check out this Wemby play for 3s made tomorrow. Without even taking a stance, look at the difference this makes: If you like his over, you're laying 10 less cents to do the same thing at Pointsbet/Fanatics than you would be at BetMGM. Should that lose, you just saved yourself a little more than 7% of your cost and lay. If you like his under? You got to DraftKings or BetMGM and get five cents more, or 5% more just for shopping with them. It's coupon clipping but with sports bets. If you wagered, say, $100 on this prop and the under hit, that's $5 for doing very little. And $100 is often on the lower end of bets, so you can see why this matters and adds up fast, yeah?
Todays Thoughts as I go back and forth between Tums and Rolaid's this morning. Thankful for family that feeds me yesterday...a little regretful that they feed me so much today.
1. Let's get this out of the way first.....@Brand Name needs to hang out in here much more often. Could write a book as to why but those who know, know. Great stuff as always.
2. Yesterdays Lions-Packers game was a prime example of the value in Live Betting and it translates to NBA. Joked with someone (from here) on X that I played a Lions/Niners teaser for pizza money to get some football entertainment then laughed at myself telling him, and I quote, "....which is silly bc there is a greater than Miles Bridges beating up his girlfriend chance of me firing on something in-game anyway" and this was really unnecessary. Goff with some early turnovers deep in his own territory and one big play over the top had this a 20-6 game in the 1Q. Under 66.5 was at +110 with 2 min to go in the quarter after Goff's latest gaff....it was still 61.5 after the Lions stuff a still anemic Packers offense on 4th down. Let's be thankful for live betting spots too.
3. Usually I enjoy these day games and how you can learn things early on in the game such as Pace, which team had a group outing at Club Platinum the night before, etc. Today however is not one of those days for wagering purposes. The only thing prevented me from a full unload on Orlando +6 (down to +5 now and expecting a 3.5 close) is that it IS a day start where weird shit happens. This thread isn't about Celtics fandom so taking that away....the Magic's 10-man rotation of league-best defense begins on the perimeter with a heathy Suggs (he's so good on this end), a long smooth and athletic rookie in Black, and doesn't let up with the Cole Anthony/Gary Harris second unit. Throw in Bitadze/Moritz, who did as well as anyone in slowing down Jokic last game, with Banchero and Franz, and you have an elite elite regular season defensive team. They are young, hungry, coachable and confident....who the heck knows how they will respond to a big afternoon game after beating Denver though but this number is way to far off to not find out. Aside from my standard Day Under play I also took some additional U223.5 and 1H U114. Again, my numbers way off from these.
4. There are two games tonight, Det/Ind & Mil/Wiz, with Totals of 247. That's the thought....there are two games tonight, Det/Ind & Mil/Wiz, with Totals of 247.
5. Since I began Thought #4 the Pistons game is now 248..."the Pistons game is now 248" was not anything I ever expected to write this year. What a time to be alive!!
6. Grizz are signing guys from pickup games to complete their roster these days and are 3-11 including 0-6 at home. Left msg with books last night asking if they can Grade my only regular season Win Total wager for me...still waiting on responses.
7. Some fun games tonight. Den/Hou & Sac/Minn at 8pm. I'll be in a casino sportsbook watching so no flipping necessary. Clippers/Pels late, will Zion and James get away from dinner table in time for tip-off? As mentioned upthread, the Clippers may be a play-on team as a motivated group now flying under the radar. We also have two of my most overvalued teams, Bucks and Warriors, laying double digits. Interesting night and looking forward to a great day of hoops!
8. Black Friday Bonus in tonight's Professional Fighters League (PFL) PPV. Sadibou Sy is a live dog at +185 as are his late finish props, R3(+2100), R4(+3200) and R5(+3200).
1. Let's get this out of the way first.....@Brand Name needs to hang out in here much more often. Could write a book as to why but those who know, know. Great stuff as always.
2. Yesterdays Lions-Packers game was a prime example of the value in Live Betting and it translates to NBA. Joked with someone (from here) on X that I played a Lions/Niners teaser for pizza money to get some football entertainment then laughed at myself telling him, and I quote, "....which is silly bc there is a greater than Miles Bridges beating up his girlfriend chance of me firing on something in-game anyway" and this was really unnecessary. Goff with some early turnovers deep in his own territory and one big play over the top had this a 20-6 game in the 1Q. Under 66.5 was at +110 with 2 min to go in the quarter after Goff's latest gaff....it was still 61.5 after the Lions stuff a still anemic Packers offense on 4th down. Let's be thankful for live betting spots too.
3. Usually I enjoy these day games and how you can learn things early on in the game such as Pace, which team had a group outing at Club Platinum the night before, etc. Today however is not one of those days for wagering purposes. The only thing prevented me from a full unload on Orlando +6 (down to +5 now and expecting a 3.5 close) is that it IS a day start where weird shit happens. This thread isn't about Celtics fandom so taking that away....the Magic's 10-man rotation of league-best defense begins on the perimeter with a heathy Suggs (he's so good on this end), a long smooth and athletic rookie in Black, and doesn't let up with the Cole Anthony/Gary Harris second unit. Throw in Bitadze/Moritz, who did as well as anyone in slowing down Jokic last game, with Banchero and Franz, and you have an elite elite regular season defensive team. They are young, hungry, coachable and confident....who the heck knows how they will respond to a big afternoon game after beating Denver though but this number is way to far off to not find out. Aside from my standard Day Under play I also took some additional U223.5 and 1H U114. Again, my numbers way off from these.
4. There are two games tonight, Det/Ind & Mil/Wiz, with Totals of 247. That's the thought....there are two games tonight, Det/Ind & Mil/Wiz, with Totals of 247.
5. Since I began Thought #4 the Pistons game is now 248..."the Pistons game is now 248" was not anything I ever expected to write this year. What a time to be alive!!
6. Grizz are signing guys from pickup games to complete their roster these days and are 3-11 including 0-6 at home. Left msg with books last night asking if they can Grade my only regular season Win Total wager for me...still waiting on responses.
7. Some fun games tonight. Den/Hou & Sac/Minn at 8pm. I'll be in a casino sportsbook watching so no flipping necessary. Clippers/Pels late, will Zion and James get away from dinner table in time for tip-off? As mentioned upthread, the Clippers may be a play-on team as a motivated group now flying under the radar. We also have two of my most overvalued teams, Bucks and Warriors, laying double digits. Interesting night and looking forward to a great day of hoops!
8. Black Friday Bonus in tonight's Professional Fighters League (PFL) PPV. Sadibou Sy is a live dog at +185 as are his late finish props, R3(+2100), R4(+3200) and R5(+3200).
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This is great stuff and makes a lot of sense. Thank you for sharing. Also hammers home how much DK's monopoly on NH sports betting sucks. Yes I could drive the 30 minutes to MA and back to place bets on other books but it is not convenient to do on a regular basis.
Celtics back to +1600 for the in-season tournament. Are they long shots to advance at this point due to one loss?
Problem is that there one loss is to the team that is first place in their group and is also done with group stage play. And so a 2-way tie with the 3-1 Magic means they would need to be a wild card team. Cavs, Nets, Heat, and Knicks are also all 2-1, and the Celtics have the worst point differential (the key tiebreaker) among all that group. Now, the Heat play the 3-0 Bucks, so the Bucks could join the others in finishing 3-1, but that would not be good either as the Bucks currently have the best tournament PD among the East. Either way, it's 5 teams fighting for 1 wild card spot and the Celtics not in advantageous position due to their point differential. The Celtics would likely need at least 3 of the the Knicks, Nets, Heat and Cavs to lose to qualify as a wild card.
Other way for the Celtics to get in is for the Nets to win while the Celtics trounce the Bulls, setting up a 3-way tie scenario for first in the group between Celtics, Magic, and Nets. Celtics would need to win by enough points to win the 3-way group tiebreaker to avoid the wild card. Something like 23 points or more while the Nets win by 15 (or less) fewer points.
Several paths forward, but none look easy. And if they do get in, there's a better than 50/50 chance their quarterfinal game is on the road.
Edit: 1 wild card spot, not 2.
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Where my Celtics fans at???
I could write a novel on this but I'll keep it short. Atlanta has scored 152, 147 (OT) and 136 in their last three against Indiana, Brooklyn and Washington. What came so easily on the offensive end will not be so on a B2B against a Celtics team coming off a loss. You can pick your poison...I see a Celtics -7.5 opener which is as mind boggling as Boston being -5 in Orlando to me. My fair number is 12 and still couldn't play Atlanta there. When TT comes out Atlanta Under will surely be good too (114?). Celtics Double Result (1H/FG), Winning Margin. Pretty much everything is playable as we are finally on the other side of a scheduling spot.
I could write a novel on this but I'll keep it short. Atlanta has scored 152, 147 (OT) and 136 in their last three against Indiana, Brooklyn and Washington. What came so easily on the offensive end will not be so on a B2B against a Celtics team coming off a loss. You can pick your poison...I see a Celtics -7.5 opener which is as mind boggling as Boston being -5 in Orlando to me. My fair number is 12 and still couldn't play Atlanta there. When TT comes out Atlanta Under will surely be good too (114?). Celtics Double Result (1H/FG), Winning Margin. Pretty much everything is playable as we are finally on the other side of a scheduling spot.
Big exhale spot for Orlando today. Coming off 6 straight wins including the last two vs Denver and Boston....now hosting Charlotte ahead of a couple days off. Would like to see the market actually catch up to them here but still favor Charlotte +7 here with some ML sprinkle.
I'll continue fading the Bucks as long as they remain so wrongfully valued in the market. Portland +12.5 is common but some +13 still around.
I'll continue fading the Bucks as long as they remain so wrongfully valued in the market. Portland +12.5 is common but some +13 still around.
Blazers W
Ending up adding on more Celtics to make it maybe my largest overall position on the season.
Ending up adding on more Celtics to make it maybe my largest overall position on the season.
Hornets to sneak out a 4Q win in Orlando for an encore? So tempted to add live to Celtics with the 1H side and Hawks TT Under in pocket but passing.
Great work as always HRB! I cashed on Hawks TT U, Celtics -7.5, -8.5, -9.5 and parlayed Celtics and Blazers.
That Brown miss at the end just missed the -10.5!
Yeah and the Brog miss 3 bailed you out of a back breaking 7 point win… little too close on those ladders IMO but great hit on 3/4 of them!
The Bogdan make would have been much worse. It would have pushed my late 7's and lost all the 7.5's. TT Under and Double Result were nice bonuses too. I don't think the Celtics could have made it this close and were late to adjust defensively but the Hawks competed hard and got their shooters into rhythm. Good on them.
Fair. I had blocked out the Hawks threes after watching so many of them all game!
Thanks HRB! You know I will when we get a bit more of sample size, right near that point where I feel comfortable. Full disclosure, you will never get advice about my book one way or another.
Quick thing I think that I find important when you're talking NBA points, rebounds, to name a few that fall under this premise: Opportunity share only exists so much within a given team. It's not advisable to take two starters on the same team to hit overs. Best case there is one over, one under, assuming prices are all good. Correlations are the key above all to props.
Post #1723, on this page. I am a very heavy under bettor and props magnify this with so much of this betting population of props at large are taking overs. That's even in comparison to taking favorites. Of course, it's not always the case how I lean, but yeah. My best is baseball in this realm, followed by NFL, but I'm messing a bit with NBA stuff here this year so there's always a season to be played.
Quick thing I think that I find important when you're talking NBA points, rebounds, to name a few that fall under this premise: Opportunity share only exists so much within a given team. It's not advisable to take two starters on the same team to hit overs. Best case there is one over, one under, assuming prices are all good. Correlations are the key above all to props.
Really excellent advice, I appreciate it and will be using it going forward.
I wish you would. I see your plays like twice a month when I remember that Fiskful exists and I don't think I'm alone.
Yesterday was a great example on how to balance derivatives into your game portfolio "in certain instances" when there is a direct correlation to the handicap. As discussed upthread I would have been perfectly fine unloading on Celtics -7.5 (and later -7 when expected lineup news/money came in for Atlanta which is another exploitable NBA angle with players being valued greater than scheduling....can discuss another time but the value basis for majority of my plays), Atlanta TT U114 where got 114.5 and even 115 late, OR the Double Result which is simply pairing the 1H winner/or tie with the FG winner. Due to wagering caps you are typically limited on how much you can wager on derivatives.
As many know, I rarely release a big play on a favorite to cover by margin. We all know that in the NFL those key numbers are 3 and 7, then to a lesser extent 10 and 14. soccer totals are 3, etc etc. In the NBA the most likely number for a game to fall on is 7 which is part of the reason I added more late on Boston and didn't totally unload on 7.5 earlier but rather spread nearly half of my play out between Celtics 1H, Hawks 1H TT Under, and Hawks FG TT Under, as well as the Double Result. Not only was this a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta but also a '"focus game" for Boston coming off a loss and losing 2 of 3 so I was very confident that we would win the 1H. In this case the Double Result would be considered "juicy" by some at -155 but i could see value at it up to -220 or thereabouts. So....even though my fair number on the game was -12 I am still sensitive to NBA backdoors and how teams play end of games to the score and 7 is the magic number to exceed a two-possession game when it relates to end of game fouling or conceding. In short, even though this was my largest position of the season it was not 100% tied into Bogdan hitting a meaningless 3 at end of game as I used the derivative markets to reduce my overall risk.
Hope that all makes sense and can be used by you or discussed in future plays.
EDIT: Quick thought as someone mentioned it was that Derrick White was +29 last night. As you know that single game +/- means zero to me, and longer timeframes of this vague stat mean little more but to stay on track....Derrick White was +29 despite shooting 0-6 three's, getting hung up on high screens all night, having a 5-count called against him on an inbounds that possibly indicated his mental awareness last night. I'm going to tape some if not all of his minutes to see his impact on the +29 as this appears so bizarre on first watch.
As many know, I rarely release a big play on a favorite to cover by margin. We all know that in the NFL those key numbers are 3 and 7, then to a lesser extent 10 and 14. soccer totals are 3, etc etc. In the NBA the most likely number for a game to fall on is 7 which is part of the reason I added more late on Boston and didn't totally unload on 7.5 earlier but rather spread nearly half of my play out between Celtics 1H, Hawks 1H TT Under, and Hawks FG TT Under, as well as the Double Result. Not only was this a tough scheduling spot for Atlanta but also a '"focus game" for Boston coming off a loss and losing 2 of 3 so I was very confident that we would win the 1H. In this case the Double Result would be considered "juicy" by some at -155 but i could see value at it up to -220 or thereabouts. So....even though my fair number on the game was -12 I am still sensitive to NBA backdoors and how teams play end of games to the score and 7 is the magic number to exceed a two-possession game when it relates to end of game fouling or conceding. In short, even though this was my largest position of the season it was not 100% tied into Bogdan hitting a meaningless 3 at end of game as I used the derivative markets to reduce my overall risk.
Hope that all makes sense and can be used by you or discussed in future plays.
EDIT: Quick thought as someone mentioned it was that Derrick White was +29 last night. As you know that single game +/- means zero to me, and longer timeframes of this vague stat mean little more but to stay on track....Derrick White was +29 despite shooting 0-6 three's, getting hung up on high screens all night, having a 5-count called against him on an inbounds that possibly indicated his mental awareness last night. I'm going to tape some if not all of his minutes to see his impact on the +29 as this appears so bizarre on first watch.
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Having said all that......we have a play for tonight.
* LA Clippers -5.5
I discussed the Clippers as a watch/play on team a couple weeks ago as they are a motivated group to make this work with strong leadership/chemistry at the top. In their 6 straight losses, 5 on the road, they competed hard. Even in the Mavs blowout when Doncic and Kyrie put on a show that nobody was stopping that night and the Mavs hitting 50% of their threes iirc, they were competing. You could not ever get this information from a box score. In their final loss of that stretch they were a possession away from winning in Denver which is still a tough place to win even without Murray for the Nuggets. I posted upthread that they are a team to watch over the next few games against a good Houston team and the Spurs.....they won all 3 of those, lost to Pels and paid back the Mavs at home in a spot I mentioned upthread that night. Tonight they catch a Denver team who is back on the road and still without Murray for tonights game. Lue has also quickly developed a nice veteran 2nd unit with defined roles with Russ, Powell, Theis along with some PJ Tucker/Hyland.
* LA Clippers -5.5
I discussed the Clippers as a watch/play on team a couple weeks ago as they are a motivated group to make this work with strong leadership/chemistry at the top. In their 6 straight losses, 5 on the road, they competed hard. Even in the Mavs blowout when Doncic and Kyrie put on a show that nobody was stopping that night and the Mavs hitting 50% of their threes iirc, they were competing. You could not ever get this information from a box score. In their final loss of that stretch they were a possession away from winning in Denver which is still a tough place to win even without Murray for the Nuggets. I posted upthread that they are a team to watch over the next few games against a good Houston team and the Spurs.....they won all 3 of those, lost to Pels and paid back the Mavs at home in a spot I mentioned upthread that night. Tonight they catch a Denver team who is back on the road and still without Murray for tonights game. Lue has also quickly developed a nice veteran 2nd unit with defined roles with Russ, Powell, Theis along with some PJ Tucker/Hyland.
Clippers up to -7.5 on the (expected) news of Aaron Gordon missing another game and the addition of Jokic to the Injury Report as Questionable with a back.
@HomeRunBaker does this concern you with the Clips taking them lightly or the Nuggets underdogs playing harder?
I know in some instances you play that side of the coin.
I know in some instances you play that side of the coin.