Being denied now. Stay tuned.
Being denied now. Stay tuned.
Imagine if Eflin had signed with the Sox? Bloom would have signed a top starter, reliever, and hitter as free agents last off-season. It is one of those butterfly effect thought exercises, and ultimately does provide some insight into Bloom's strength in identifying talent and his struggles in finalizing a deal.
.@ByRobertMurray on the Red Sox on his stream:
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1733208314274550247“Don’t take the lack of Red Sox rumors as a sign of them being inactive on the market, because that’s just not true.” Says the Sox have been “all over” the pitching market, and that Jordan Montgomery and Seth Lugo could be fits.
.@ByRobertMurray says the Red Sox have “absolutely” been involved in the free agent market and anyone saying otherwise is wrong. Says he heard in Nashville they’ve been all over the pitching market and they’re just trying not to force a signing.
Mariner fans could use a talking-to about this as well.
If you want to qualify it as an outlier amongst the NYC/LA/Boston axis, then yes, an outlier. But then none of those other teams were in the same boat the 2019 Red Sox were (barren high minors, terrible developmental infrastructure, and payroll problems).Agreed, theres no real conclusion that the strategy worked or didnt work; only that it is an outlier (at least as to the extent Bloom took it) of other large market franchises who also heavily rely on analytics so assuredly know that pitching tends to bring lower returns in the draft and IFA.
They didn’t take anything to an extreme. In the Bloom era they had four first round picks and four second round picks. And one of those was used (unwisely, I think) on Jud Fabian. Those were the only rounds they weren’t selecting pitchers, and those were the picks where they needed more security in terms of outcomes. Of those eight picks Fabian never signed and Cutter Coffey is looking like a washout. On the other Roman Anthony, a 19 year old ‘22 draftee, has reached AA and is a top 50 prospect. So the approach has not served them badly.@nighthob - I truly appreciate you taking the time to explain the strategy. I'm not a fan of taking it to such an extreme, especially in the draft, but I can conceptualize why they did it, relative to prospects, even though I don't agree.
What I really can't figure is why that was always the approach at the MLB rotation level. Not one significant expenditure of capital (neither top of the market FA deals; nor "middle class" deals, as you put it; no significant trades for it). It just makes no sense to me that an organization that wins 4 titles in 15 seasons with Pedro and Schilling; Beckett and Schilling; Lester and Lackey; Price and Sale and then they spend 5 years not investing outside of short term, bottom of the market moves.
Yeah, in 12 picks in the first 3 rounds they took one SP. Dalton Rogers in 2022 who was pretty bad in his first taste of A+ ball this year, but my bigger gripe is with the starting rotation at the MLB level.They didn’t take anything to an extreme. In the Bloom era they had four first round picks and four second round picks. And one of those was used (unwisely, I think) on Jud Fabian. Those were the only rounds they weren’t selecting pitchers, and those were the picks where they needed more security in terms of outcomes. Of those eight picks Fabian never signed and Cutter Coffey is looking like a washout. On the other Roman Anthony, a 19 year old ‘22 draftee, has reached AA and is a top 50 prospect. So the approach has not served them badly.
I honestly have no idea how trade value works, but I have to think 4 years of Castillo with a vested option for '28 is going to cost an interested party much more than that.Trying to be creative here, but if the Sox miss on YY is there a match with the Mariners who are trying to shed payroll, have starters galore, but need outfielders? Sox get Luis Castillo (I think he's roughly $23M a year), Ms get Duran, Wilyer, Houck and maybe a prospect? Sox could but Rafaela in CF and get a bat for right on the FA market. Ms still have Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and Woo.
It should be noted, for the record, that the Fabian pick is a non-entity from the point of view of analyzing draft pick allocation because they effectively got a do-over in the following draft (and knowing they would get that do-over if he didn't sign may have partially motivated the use of the pick). That is, they would have had one fewer 1st/2nd round picks had they picked someone else who signed.They didn’t take anything to an extreme. In the Bloom era they had four first round picks and four second round picks. And one of those was used (unwisely, I think) on Jud Fabian. Those were the only rounds they weren’t selecting pitchers, and those were the picks where they needed more security in terms of outcomes. Of those eight picks Fabian never signed and Cutter Coffey is looking like a washout. On the other Roman Anthony, a 19 year old ‘22 draftee, has reached AA and is a top 50 prospect. So the approach has not served them badly.
Right, hence the two second rounders in 2022. But Cutter Coffey was the do-over for Fabian, so the pick was, apparently, destined to produce nothing.It should be noted, for the record, that the Fabian pick is a non-entity from the point of view of analyzing draft pick allocation because they effectively got a do-over in the following draft (and knowing they would get that do-over if he didn't sign may have partially motivated the use of the pick). That is, they would have had one fewer 1st/2nd round picks had they picked someone else who signed.
There has been a lot of discussion about a possible Gilbert trade in this post, go back a couple pages.The crazy money that YY is going to get is beginning to scare me. What about this?
Trade for Logan Gilbert. I know it would take a lot. Any idea how much?
Trade for Burnes and plan on extending him or resigning him.
Sign Woodruff now to take over for Sale next year.
I'd feel good about a staff of Burnes, Sale/Woodruff, Gilbert, Bello, and Crawford.
And given that that 2nd round involved getting Anthony, who hit (way) better than Fabian at the same levels this year despite being three years younger, and the Fabian comp pick helped us go over slot for him, I wouldn't change a damn thing.It should be noted, for the record, that the Fabian pick is a non-entity from the point of view of analyzing draft pick allocation because they effectively got a do-over in the following draft (and knowing they would get that do-over if he didn't sign may have partially motivated the use of the pick). That is, they would have had one fewer 1st/2nd round picks had they picked someone else who signed.
You don’t need a rotation full of top 20 pitchers to win (otherwise most of MLB would be out of the playoff hunt from day one). You can be perfectly competitive with a starting staff that eats innings adequately and a good bullpen.The crazy money that YY is going to get is beginning to scare me. What about this?
Trade for Logan Gilbert. I know it would take a lot. Any idea how much?
Trade for Burnes and plan on extending him or resigning him.
Sign Woodruff now to take over for Sale next year.
I'd feel good about a staff of Burnes, Sale/Woodruff, Gilbert, Bello, and Crawford.
Right, the Roman Empire was my case in point for why I have zero problems with the approach of using 1st and 2nd round picks on position players. Anthony, Mayer, Teel, those are the fruits of that approach.And given that that 2nd round involved getting Anthony, who hit (way) better than Fabian at the same levels this year despite being three years younger, and the Fabian comp pick helped us go over slot for him, I wouldn't change a damn thing.
You don’t need a rotation full of top 20 pitchers to win (otherwise most of MLB would be out of the playoff hunt from day one). You can be perfectly competitive with a starting staff that eats innings adequately and a good bullpen.
We lost our own 2nd rounder when we signed Story. Roman was the ERod comp pick. & Coffey was only $60k under slot so he really wasn't the difference between Roman or no Roman. Might not have been able to get Brooks Brannon, though.And given that that 2nd round involved getting Anthony, who hit (way) better than Fabian at the same levels this year despite being three years younger, and the Fabian comp pick helped us go over slot for him, I wouldn't change a damn thing.
Oh I’m not arguing with that, I’ve been beating the Yoshi Yamamoto drum for a long time now. I’m just pointing out to the people desperate for Boston to empty the minor league system for two cost controlled front of the rotation starters that you don’t need 3-4 of those guys to compete.There's also no reason not to (over)spend on at least one FA starter. They're available, there are several good ones and we have cash. FA should be our plan A, then for the second starter FA or a trade is just fine. But we do need two good ones from somewhere.
Montgomery, the Japanese pitcher and Chapman. Sounds financially doableI think the Sox will need to overpay if for no other reasons than there appears to be a disdain amo g players for Sox ownership, a recent string of losing seasons, and no pitcher enjoys pitching with a horrendous defense behind him. My strategy is set the market with an overpay for Montgomery and blow the lit off for the Japanese pitcher. If the Sox want Lugo as a swing or 5th starter go for it. I think they could trade the final year of a subsidized Chris Sale to an NL team for a good second baseman. A rotation of The Japanese pitcher, sorry I can't remember how to spell his name, Montgomery, Bello, Crawford, Houck Lugo with one of the last three as a swing man should get the job done. We would need the young outfielders to take a step forward. If we had a Maldonado/ Wong combo at catcher that should improve our defense. I also toy with the idea of moving Cedanne to second base using Raffy as a DH and and signing Chapman to improve our defense at 3rd base. I wonder if there is a market for Yoshi.
What's your evidence of the "disdain among players for Sox ownership"?I think the Sox will need to overpay if for no other reasons than there appears to be a disdain amo g players for Sox ownership, a recent string of losing seasons, and no pitcher enjoys pitching with a horrendous defense behind him. My strategy is set the market with an overpay for Montgomery and blow the lit off for the Japanese pitcher. If the Sox want Lugo as a swing or 5th starter go for it. I think they could trade the final year of a subsidized Chris Sale to an NL team for a good second baseman. A rotation of The Japanese pitcher, sorry I can't remember how to spell his name, Montgomery, Bello, Crawford, Houck Lugo with one of the last three as a swing man should get the job done. We would need the young outfielders to take a step forward. If we had a Maldonado/ Wong combo at catcher that should improve our defense. I also toy with the idea of moving Cedanne to second base using Raffy as a DH and and signing Chapman to improve our defense at 3rd base. I wonder if there is a market for Yoshi.
If Yam is a massive overpay, I would rather go with Imanaga and Montgomery and have some money. on the trade side to add to our offense/defense at 2b... IMO.Montgomery, the Japanese pitcher and Chapman. Sounds financially doable
With a rotation like that, a good bullpen, and a good offense the Sox compete for a playoff spot. As bad as they were last year, they aren’t far off from being a competitive team.I’m dreaming bigger:
Yamamoto
Burnes (via trade)
Burnes
Yamamoto
Bello
Sale
Crawford
Add in a nice bat like Gurriel and maybe a RP arm and you’ve really upgraded your team.
Surely they aren't still in on Gurriel now that they've got O'Neill?I’m dreaming bigger:
Yamamoto
Burnes (via trade)
Burnes
Yamamoto
Bello
Sale
Crawford
Add in a nice bat like Gurriel and maybe a RP arm and you’ve really upgraded your team.
I like Burnes and would love to see him as a Red Sox. My biggest concern is that he hits free agency at the end of the season. If some sort of extend and trade could be worked out great, but that's far from the norm these days. With everything else falling just right this off season I still can't see the Sox as being close enought to GFIN mode to move the prospects that it may take to land Burnes, only to have to fill that slot again in a year. For the record, I do believe that the Sox will be best served to sign a FA pitcher and trade for another arm, but I think you need at least 3 seasons of control from that deal if you can get it.I’m dreaming bigger:
Yamamoto
Burnes (via trade)
Burnes
Yamamoto
Bello
Sale
Crawford
Add in a nice bat like Gurriel and maybe a RP arm and you’ve really upgraded your team.
I think Mayer is available for the right pitcher.Can you acquire a good pitcher with multiple years of control remaining without giving up at least one of Anthony or Mayer? I’m skeptical.
100% he is. Everyone outside of Roman is in play.I think Mayer is available for the right pitcher.
I think I would put Teel in the same category, personally, just because he has unicorn catcher written all over him.100% he is. Everyone outside of Roman is in play.
Agreed 100%. We're also pretty weak at the catcher position. Wong is alright but I see him as more of a backup catcher and definitely not a long-term solution. And outside of Teel, there isn't much catcher depth in the minors.I think I would put Teel in the same category, personally, just because he has unicorn catcher written all over him.
I’m dreaming bigger still, Yamamoto and Sasaki to front the rotation.I’m dreaming bigger:
Yamamoto
Burnes (via trade)
Sasaki still isn't coming over until 2027 unless something drastically changes, today's news is meaningless on its own.I’m dreaming bigger still, Yamamoto and Sasaki to front the rotation.
This was my reaction as well. I think Teel is as untradeable as Anthony...maybe, just maybe, even more so.I think I would put Teel in the same category, personally, just because he has unicorn catcher written all over him.
And Mayer is probably in his own tier, as available but only in a deal for a true ace. I wouldn't be shopping him, if that makes sense.
Literally any combination of anyone else should be used if they need to.
Most people still have Mayer as the #1 prospect in the Red Sox system & the vast majority of the rest have Mayer 2nd. Don't know why he would be more available than Roman or Teel.I think I would put Teel in the same category, personally, just because he has unicorn catcher written all over him.
And Mayer is probably in his own tier, as available but only in a deal for a true ace. I wouldn't be shopping him, if that makes sense.
Literally any combination of anyone else should be used if they need to.
Recency bias. Last offseason he was pretty much untouchable. One subpar season later, people are ready to drive him to the airport.Most people still have Mayer as the #1 prospect in the Red Sox system & the vast majority of the rest have Mayer 2nd. Don't know why he would be more available than Roman or Teel.
Maybe if Story was playing better & we had a 2B...
Yeah, my point is that he wouldn't be more available just because of a change in public perception. He didn't really even have a down year... he just had an injured year.Recency bias. Last offseason he was pretty much untouchable. One subpar season later, people are ready to drive him to the airport.
No to Chapman. Yes to Yamamoto at whatever cost. Then find another starter somehow, likely via trade.Montgomery, the Japanese pitcher and Chapman. Sounds financially doable
Way to spoil the dreamSasaki still isn't coming over until 2027 unless something drastically changes, today's news is meaningless on its own.
On mlbn, they almost never mention the Sox w/r/t Yamamoto, which wouldn't bother me, except that lately things like that seem somewhat predictive.No to Chapman. Yes to Yamamoto at whatever cost. Then find another starter somehow, likely via trade.
Aroldis or Matt?No to Chapman. Yes to Yamamoto at whatever cost. Then find another starter somehow, likely via trade.
Just to pull this out in isolation. . .drafting and developing is sort of a purity test for some people, perhaps hearkening back to some kind of mythic origin story for a player in an organization.Guys entirely drafted & developed by Bloom? Not a single pitch or at bat.