Pats select Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe at 137

Jimbodandy · Dec 20, 2023

rodderick said:
If they're grabbing a QB at 2 sorry if I'm not penciling in mid round tackles as an upgrade over what they have under contract for 2024 at those spots. And the purpose of my post was to comment on his suggestion, I would think SoSH of all places would be better than reacting to a preference for moving on from Belichick with pearl clutching like children, but alas.

I'll take my feedback with a side order of gaslighting.

You and others are free to advocate for moving on from Belichick. I was legitimately inquiring as to whether you read Dogman's post:

Offer Mike Evans and Tee Higgins 2-3 year deals, bring back Zeke. Bring in Minshew, Lock, or Mayfield. Keep Zappe. Look at Jonah Williams or Elumenour at OT. Re-sign Henry and add Dalton Shultz.

Draft QB, OT, WR, OT, RB, CB/S. TE.

Keep BB.

When you responded:

Gardner Minshew throwing to Tee Higgins and Mike Evans in this system protected by those tackles has the makings of a 7/8 win team at best

Seemingly not seeing the "also draft QB, OT, WR, OT" part.

Then you posted this:

Now, if we're grabbing a QB at 2 with the possibility of him earning the starting job at camp then I'm likely in

Which is encouraging, albeit seeming obvious from Dogman's "draft QB, OT..." post.

And then the kicker:

even though I'd much rather have a modern offensive mind at HC bringing him up to speed.

So in all transparency, what I was asking was whether you're cool with Dogman's post in its entirety except for the "Keep Bill" part. If so, makes kinda sense to me (whether we agree on Bill or not). If not, I think that you may not have read his whole post then, including the parts where he seems to advocate for drafting a QB at 2, signing and drafting OTs, drafting and signing WRs, etc.

NextBigThing8184 · Dec 20, 2023

Jimbodandy said:
Had a meh year, and maybe the AAV/bonus of a short deal might be worth his while?

he’s been banged up and has had backup QB’s throwing to him more often than not. He’s young and a legit top 20 WR in the NFL, which has turned into a league where you almost have to have an impact WR to be a strong contender

I don’t think he hits free agency, the Bengals would be stupid not to franchise tag him. If his perceived value is as low as a “2-3 year deal” is realistic then I would assume he would prefer to play on the tag and prove he’s worth a mega contract next year.

if the Bengals don’t tag him, half the NFL will be in on him which will almost guarantee a pretty massive contract.

There are very few high end WR’s hitting the free agency market nowadays as it’s arguably become the 2nd most valuable position in the sport. A guy who has shown he can be a #1 and is going to be 25 years old is going to be the hottest guy in the entire free agency market.

I think it’s more likely Higgins ends up a top 3-4 highest paid WR than settling for a short deal. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t end up around 100M unless he plays on the tag for one year.

also worth mentioning, Jefferson and Chase will be signing extensions or getting new deals (presumably) before opening day 2025. While Higgins isn’t on that level, whatever he signs for this year might end up looking like a bargain compared to what #1’s start getting paid.

Dogman · Dec 20, 2023

I don't think I said anything about penciling in either drafted tackle as starters. However, once Enwenu got kicked out to RT he has played pretty well. Not great but not bad overall. I definitely look at one of the FA I suggested as the LT and backups go to the rookies in the draft.

I'm all for looking at a pass catching 3rd down back either in the draft or FA as well. QB with the top pick is in camp competition and may well win the starting job over whomever you bring in as a vet. The point was, FA and drafting means looking at 9-12 new offensive players and mostly the skill positions.

Dogman · Dec 20, 2023

NextBigThing8184 said:
he’s been banged up and has had backup QB’s throwing to him more often than not. He’s young and a legit top 20 WR in the NFL, which has turned into a league where you almost have to have an impact WR to be a strong contender

I don’t think he hits free agency, the Bengals would be stupid not to franchise tag him. If his perceived value is as low as a “2-3 year deal” is realistic then I would assume he would prefer to play on the tag and prove he’s worth a mega contract next year.

if the Bengals don’t tag him, half the NFL will be in on him which will almost guarantee a pretty massive contract.

There are very few high end WR’s hitting the free agency market nowadays as it’s arguably become the 2nd most valuable position in the sport. A guy who has shown he can be a #1 and is going to be 25 years old is going to be the hottest guy in the entire free agency market.

I think it’s more likely Higgins ends up a top 3-4 highest paid WR than settling for a short deal. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t end up around 100M unless he plays on the tag for one year.

also worth mentioning, Jefferson and Chase will be signing extensions or getting new deals (presumably) before opening day 2025. While Higgins isn’t on that level, whatever he signs for this year might end up looking like a bargain compared to what #1’s start getting paid.

All very fair. Higgins may very well sign a huge deal or play on the tag for a year. If Cincy doesn't tag him, and thinking about this more, offering a larger multi-year mostly guaranteed deal is probably the way it gets done. Bourne, Douglas, Boutte (maybe), JJSS (maybe),Thornton, Evans (maybe), Higgins is a pretty good looking WR room. Toss a drafted guy to two in that mix and this is a different group.

Cellar-Door · Dec 20, 2023

Tee Higgins is getting 5 years at big money from somebody

Jinhocho · Dec 20, 2023

Assuming he is ok from the recent injury, Michael Pittman might be a viable option.

Cellar-Door · Dec 20, 2023

Jinhocho said:
Assuming he is ok from the recent injury, Michael Pittman might be a viable option.

This is a strong WR class by recent standards: Evans, Higgins, Pittman, Ridley, some interesting 2nd tier or potential breakout guys: Bourne, Shaheed, Davis, Brown, other Brown, etc.

Jinhocho · Dec 20, 2023

Cellar-Door said:
This is a strong WR class by recent standards: Evans, Higgins, Pittman, Ridley, some interesting 2nd tier or potential breakout guys: Bourne, Shaheed, Davis, Brown, other Brown, etc.

Agreed, which is why I think Pittman might be viable. I am not sure Bourne will be much sought after at least on a big deal given his injury.

Cellar-Door · Dec 20, 2023

Jinhocho said:
Agreed, which is why I think Pittman might be viable. I am not sure Bourne will be much sought after at least on a big deal given his injury.

yeah, he'd probably be higher if he didn't get hurt, but he's in there with the high reward guys like Shaheed, Brown, etc. who could be a good #2 for you hopefully but have real risk.

j44thor · Dec 20, 2023

Pittman is most likely to be franchised, Ridley quite possibly as well as that might get around trade escalators Jax would owe ATL though not clear on that. Not to turn this into the FA thread but Gabe Davis is the one I would target, still young and an excellent downfield threat and blocker. Not a true #1 but I don't think you will have to pay him like a #1 either. He is a better version of Devante Parker IMO. Another big bodied buy low candidate would be Donovan Peoples Jones, had a productive season last yr in CLE over 800yds but was passed on the depth chart and is now in DET who almost assuredly won't extend him. Another boundary receiver that should come cheap.

NextBigThing8184 · Dec 20, 2023

j44thor said:
Pittman is most likely to be franchised, Ridley quite possibly as well as that might get around trade escalators Jax would owe ATL though not clear on that. Not to turn this into the FA thread but Gabe Davis is the one I would target, still young and an excellent downfield threat and blocker. Not a true #1 but I don't think you will have to pay him like a #1 either. He is a better version of Devante Parker IMO. Another big bodied buy low candidate would be Donovan Peoples Jones, had a productive season last yr in CLE over 800yds but was passed on the depth chart and is now in DET who almost assuredly won't extend him. Another boundary receiver that should come cheap.

I feel like Davis and Peoples Jones would end up being in the Parker/Agoholor category of guys who are better than what was on the roster at the time of acquisition but don’t really move the needle enough to warrant the acquisition cost.

Low end 2’s/high end 3’s are guys who get good money given how inflated WR salaries are becoming and aren’t difference makers. The Bills have been thirsting for a non-Diggs option and Davis has never been able to break out. I don’t know that he’s worth paying given the boat anchor JuJu contract and Parker’s extension. Peoples Jones might come cheaper but on a team full of 3’s and 4’s, I don’t know that either of them are going to be good signings as a #2 and certainly not guys the Pats should consider as “the” WR acquisition. I’d rather take two bites at the loaded WR draft class apple and hope to get someone to emerge as your #2 and find a creative trade or go crazy for Higgins. See if Bourne will come back on a one year prove you’re healthy deal and roll with that.

now, if a new GM comes in and decides full reboot let’s just eat the dead cap for Juju and Parker, it’s a different story. But I think we’re stuck with both of them on the roster to start 2024.

NextBigThing8184 · Dec 20, 2023

Cellar-Door said:
This is a strong WR class by recent standards: Evans, Higgins, Pittman, Ridley, some interesting 2nd tier or potential breakout guys: Bourne, Shaheed, Davis, Brown, other Brown, etc.

Evans being 30 and Ridley turning 30 next year would be the concern for me there. In a full reboot, are either of those guys worth 4/5 year high end contracts for a team that needs a QB?

If Bill is back, and they get a top 2 puck assuring them of a premium QB prospect, Evans or Ridley (if they even hit the market) would make sense. But in a full rebuild, new coach, entire new front office and no premium QB, not sure 30 year old WR’s are where I’d spend money. I think Ridley is also likely to get overpaid by Jacksonville. He’s solid but hasn’t exactly flourished as a #1 with the Jaguars. He’s been good, sometimes great, sometimes invisible on a team starved of receiving talent. An upgrade over the current Pats WR for sure, but good enough to warrant 20M AAV over 4-5 years? I’m dubious. 2020 Ridley would be worth paying. 2024 Ridley, not so sure.

Higgins, Pittman and Evans seem likely to stay out barring a tag/trade situation.

TricorneMafia · Dec 20, 2023

2022 draft was another Bill Special. Only Marcus Jones looks promising and maybe you've got a backup QB in Zappe. Might be worse than the '19 draft.

BaseballJones · Dec 20, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
2022 draft was another Bill Special. Only Marcus Jones looks promising and maybe you've got a backup QB in Zappe. Might be worse than the '19 draft.

Strange is a starting guard in the NFL. Marcus is terrific (all world returner, decent corner, nice gadget piece on offense). Backup QB in Zappe. Jack Jones is a head case but he's a really good football player, well worth the risk at the spot they drafted him.

Not the best draft, but not the worst either.

Jinhocho · Dec 20, 2023

BaseballJones said:
Strange is a starting guard in the NFL. Marcus is terrific (all world returner, decent corner, nice gadget piece on offense). Backup QB in Zappe. Jack Jones is a head case but he's a really good football player, well worth the risk at the spot they drafted him.

Not the best draft, but not the worst either.

People just want to bash everything BB does.

For goodness sake, the guy was GM for 20 years of dominance, switching up his offensive and defensive style to exploit inefficiencies. He has also been able to draft guys for years to grow into roles over a couple years (coached up) to replace guys who were going to move on at their end of deal. It doesnt take a huge squint on this team to say that if Mac had turned into a top 15 QB that this years roster is a playoff one. It is really really hard to win in todays NFL without a QB and we have had the worst in football while they dug this hole.

BaseballJones · Dec 20, 2023

Jinhocho said:
People just want to bash everything BB does.

For goodness sake, the guy was GM for 20 years of dominance, switching up his offensive and defensive style to exploit inefficiencies. He has also been able to draft guys for years to grow into roles over a couple years (coached up) to replace guys who were going to move on at their end of deal. It doesnt take a huge squint on this team to say that if Mac had turned into a top 15 QB that this years roster is a playoff one. It is really really hard to win in todays NFL without a QB and we have had the worst in football while they dug this hole.

Yep, and even then, it was a perfectly reasonable and understandable draft pick at the time, one which looked pretty good after Mac's rookie year.

Kenny F'ing Powers · Dec 20, 2023

NextBigThing8184 said:
Evans being 30 and Ridley turning 30 next year would be the concern for me there. In a full reboot, are either of those guys worth 4/5 year high end contracts for a team that needs a QB?

If Bill is back, and they get a top 2 puck assuring them of a premium QB prospect, Evans or Ridley (if they even hit the market) would make sense. But in a full rebuild, new coach, entire new front office and no premium QB, not sure 30 year old WR’s are where I’d spend money. I think Ridley is also likely to get overpaid by Jacksonville. He’s solid but hasn’t exactly flourished as a #1 with the Jaguars. He’s been good, sometimes great, sometimes invisible on a team starved of receiving talent. An upgrade over the current Pats WR for sure, but good enough to warrant 20M AAV over 4-5 years? I’m dubious. 2020 Ridley would be worth paying. 2024 Ridley, not so sure.

Higgins, Pittman and Evans seem likely to stay out barring a tag/trade situation.

Ridley has such a low amount of tread on his tires, I don't think I'd look at him like an average 30 year old.

I wonder if there's a trade market/cap casualties that might make sense?

Amari Cooper is on the last year of his contract next season and is making $20M a season. He could be cut and save $12M of cap, or potentially be a trade/extension candidate. Browns are already over the cap for next season, so they may be amiable to a trade.

Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have, essentially, the same super back heavy contract. Both are on their final season next season, and both have $34M cap hits. Chargers could save 23M by cutting (or restructuring) either of them. Chargers are predicted to be WAY over the cap next season (already $45M over the predicted cap), so may be able to take one of them off their hands for a reasonable draft pick.

I can't imagine the Bill's wanting to trade in the division, but there's something rotten going on in Buffalo, and Diggs seems to want out. Their cap is almost as bad as LAC, so...who knows.

The Denver WRs remain intriguing to me. They're currently predicted to be $20M over the cap, and I think this offseason is their last chance to move on from Sutton or Jeudy and get value.

TricorneMafia · Dec 20, 2023

Strange is an average guard that was picked way above his expected draft slot. From a value perspective, he's been a bust. Marcus Jones has been on IR the whole season and the jury is still out on him– although he is intriguing. Jack Jones isn't on the team anymore. Tyquan Thornton may be worse than N'Keal Harry. I didn't think that was possible. Everyone else has been shuttled back and forth to the practice squad, has barely produced, or isn't on the team anymore. What team had a worse draft?

TricorneMafia · Dec 20, 2023

Jinhocho said:
People just want to bash everything BB does.

For goodness sake, the guy was GM for 20 years of dominance, switching up his offensive and defensive style to exploit inefficiencies. He has also been able to draft guys for years to grow into roles over a couple years (coached up) to replace guys who were going to move on at their end of deal. It doesnt take a huge squint on this team to say that if Mac had turned into a top 15 QB that this years roster is a playoff one. It is really really hard to win in todays NFL without a QB and we have had the worst in football while they dug this hole.

It doesn't matter what he did for 20 years. You don't give a 40 year-old Jerry Rice a max deal because of what he used to do. It's the same with coaches. They might not physically decline like players, but Bill's stubbornness has this franchise in quicksand while the game and the rest of the league passes by. He's been drafting poorly even before Brady left for years now. His free agent acquisitions have sucked. His choice of assistant coaches has been awful. Achord, Judge, Patricia as O coordinator? Even Troy Brown is bad as a receivers coach. He picked McCorkle. This is totally on him and no way should he be the GM going forward.

Jinhocho · Dec 20, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
It doesn't matter what he did for 20 years. You don't give a 40 year-old Jerry Rice a max deal because of what he used to do. It's the same with coaches. They might not physically decline like players, but Bill's stubbornness has this franchise in quicksand while the game and the rest of the league passes by. He's been drafting poorly even before Brady left for years now. His free agent acquisitions have sucked. His choice of assistant coaches has been awful. Achord, Judge, Patricia as O coordinator? Even Troy Brown is bad as a receivers coach. He picked McCorkle. This is totally on him and no way should he be the GM going forward.

You can easily make a counter argument that if they had a half decent QB, a little luck, etc this year they be right where we expected them with a ton of money opening up for next year.

Even people who have been saying Mac sucks for 2 years do not disagree with the pick - they took one of the QB they planned to at 15. I would have prefered Fields but Chicago moved up and grabbed him, but none of those QB look good because it is really frikking hard to find a QB in the draft lol. You can run a counter to most of what you say - his free agent aquisitions got them to the playoffs in 2021 with a rookie QB. When rookie QB imploded/failed to thrive they did not look that good. This constant bashing just gets so tiresome - it is like listening to EEI.

Ralphwiggum · Dec 20, 2023

Jinhocho said:
People just want to bash everything BB does.

For goodness sake, the guy was GM for 20 years of dominance, switching up his offensive and defensive style to exploit inefficiencies. He has also been able to draft guys for years to grow into roles over a couple years (coached up) to replace guys who were going to move on at their end of deal. It doesnt take a huge squint on this team to say that if Mac had turned into a top 15 QB that this years roster is a playoff one. It is really really hard to win in todays NFL without a QB and we have had the worst in football while they dug this hole.

I don’t think people want to bash everything BB does. But it is fair to examine why it looks like they might have a 3 win season, and why the roster on offense is so bad. Yes Mac is obviously awful and that matters a lot, but it is a massive oversimplification to put it all on him, and I disagree that this is a playoff team with an average QB. Look at the QBs that teams are trotting out there this year, there are a ton of backups and retreads and only the Panthers have a worse record than the Pats. BB is responsible for constructing the roster. The offense is horrendous across the board. The line stinks, they have no skill players outside of maybe a slightly above average Hunter Henry and the QB sucks. That’s all on him, the roster he put together in 2001 or 2007 or even 2019 kind of doesn’t matter. Figuring out why this year’s roster stinks to high heaven and is one of the worst in the league is the examination the Krafts should be doing right now.

And I’ll say it again, I am not necessarily saying it is time to move on from BB. I don’t know, I don’t think I trust him anymore with building an offense, it has been bad for a while now and I think having Brady for so many years may have masked what is a blind spot for him in terms of evaluating skill position players on offense. I also don’t completely discount his track record but it is also not dispositive to me anymore. I don’t know how anyone can reflexively defend him anymore without some doubt. This team is really, really bad and it goes way beyond just a bad QB. BB is the guy who is accountable for that. They are bad on offense, historically bad actually. That’s his fault, and should cause every Patriots fan to at least pause and think before saying he’s the right guy to rebuild the offense.

Everyone loses it eventually. Why are you so sure that the game hasn’t passed him by, at least on offense?

TricorneMafia · Dec 20, 2023

Jinhocho said:
You can easily make a counter argument that if they had a half decent QB, a little luck, etc this year they be right where we expected them with a ton of money opening up for next year.

Even people who have been saying Mac sucks for 2 years do not disagree with the pick - they took one of the QB they planned to at 15. I would have prefered Fields but Chicago moved up and grabbed him, but none of those QB look good because it is really frikking hard to find a QB in the draft lol. You can run a counter to most of what you say - his free agent aquisitions got them to the playoffs in 2021 with a rookie QB. When rookie QB imploded/failed to thrive they did not look that good. This constant bashing just gets so tiresome - it is like listening to EEI.

With a little luck? Vegas had the Pats 7-10 well before the season and Mac's implosion. Bill didn't just get unlucky with Mac– he has a whole track record of being a god awful GM for many years now. You get tired of hearing the bashing, I get tired of hearing excuses for a GM that is quantifiably bad at his job without a certain QB from California to cover for him.

Jinhocho · Dec 20, 2023

Ralphwiggum said:
I don’t think people want to bash everything BB does. But it is fair to examine why it looks like they might have a 3 win season, and why the roster on offense is so bad. Yes Mac is obviously awful and that matters a lot, but it is a massive oversimplification to put it all on him, and I disagree that this is a playoff team with an average QB. Look at the QBs that teams are trotting out there this year, there are a ton of backups and retreads and only the Panthers have a worse record than the Pats. BB is responsible for constructing the roster. The offense is horrendous across the board. The line stinks, they have no skill players outside of maybe a slightly above average Hunter Henry and the QB sucks. That’s all on him, the roster he put together in 2001 or 2007 or even 2019 kind of doesn’t matter. Figuring out why this year’s roster stinks to high heaven and is one of the worst in the league is the examination the Krafts should be doing right now.

And I’ll say it again, I am not necessarily saying it is time to move on from BB. I don’t know, I don’t think I trust him anymore with building an offense, it has been bad for a while now and I think having Brady for so many years may have masked what is a blind spot for him in terms of evaluating skill position players on offense. I also don’t completely discount his track record but it is also not dispositive to me anymore. I don’t know how anyone can reflexively defend him anymore without some doubt. This team is really, really bad and it goes way beyond just a bad QB. BB is the guy who is accountable for that. They are bad on offense, historically bad actually. That’s his fault, and should cause every Patriots fan to at least pause and think before saying he’s the right guy to rebuild the offense.

Everyone loses it eventually. Why are you so sure that the game hasn’t passed him by, at least on offense?

Yep I get that Ralph, but yours is a different post than his.

The rebuttal is that the left guard is out for the season due to injury, the left tackle has missed substantial time due to injury, the backup left tackle missed time early and is now out with a concussions, and injuries have been all across the line really hurting it for continuity. It has been a sizeable amount of games missed and that doesnt even account for Reif and the other guy they signed in the offseason who both were hurt all year. Their starting running back is now about for a good while with an injury. They have missed multiple games each for their top WR (Bourne out for season, Parker missed multiple games, JJSS as well, and Douglas has missed multiple games with concussions). About the only positions on O they have been healthy at for much of the season are QB and TE, making the QB situation/suck that much worse.

On defense, they have missed substantial time for their Gonzalez, Jack Jones before being let go, their wiz kid returrner and corner in Marcus Jones who I believe that the beginning of the year slotted in as their 2, 3 and 4 corners. I think Jonathan Jones also missed a couple games. I mean those are huge hits.

I lay it very much on the QB position because well honestly Mac sucks and his turnovers and lack of production were back breakers this year.

I think you could also make a case that in losing 7 games by a score or less that in a normal year they will win at least a few of those.

If we were evaluation this team from afar for its on the field performance, we would be saying terrible QB play/implosion of Jones, offensive line woes, and across the board offensive injuries. I tend to pin a lion's share on Jones because he has been worse than Zach WIlson. Literally, Pats fans spent inordinate time defending a guy who is...worse than Zach Wilson.

Kenny F'ing Powers · Dec 20, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
With a little luck? Vegas had the Pats 7-10 well before the season and Mac's implosion. Bill didn't just get unlucky with Mac– he has a whole track record of being a god awful GM for many years now. You get tired of hearing the bashing, I get tired of hearing excuses for a GM that is quantifiably bad at his job without a certain QB from California to cover for him.

Cool. This post brings nothing of value. You think he's terrible. You've said it a few times, but you haven't actually defended it.

Give reasons or fuck off.

Jinhocho · Dec 20, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
With a little luck? Vegas had the Pats 7-10 well before the season and Mac's implosion. Bill didn't just get unlucky with Mac– he has a whole track record of being a god awful GM for many years now. You get tired of hearing the bashing, I get tired of hearing excuses for a GM that is quantifiably bad at his job without a certain QB from California to cover for him.

Well in losing seven 1 score or less games the little luck just might be the difference between 3-11 the record vegas expected.

Groovenstein · Dec 20, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
With a little luck? Vegas had the Pats 7-10 well before the season and Mac's implosion. Bill didn't just get unlucky with Mac– he has a whole track record of being a god awful GM for many years now. You get tired of hearing the bashing, I get tired of hearing excuses for a GM that is quantifiably bad at his job without a certain QB from California to cover for him.

You forgot to end with “I’ll hang up and listen.”

BaseballJones · Dec 21, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
With a little luck? Vegas had the Pats 7-10 well before the season and Mac's implosion. Bill didn't just get unlucky with Mac– he has a whole track record of being a god awful GM for many years now. You get tired of hearing the bashing, I get tired of hearing excuses for a GM that is quantifiably bad at his job without a certain QB from California to cover for him.

How many years is "many years now"? Because just five years ago they won the Super Bowl, and the following year (just four years ago) they went 12-4 and won the division. Yes, they lost in the playoffs, but no team that goes 12-4 is a victim of terrible GM work. So that leaves the last four years, which are well documented.

Year one (2020): 7-9 with Cam as a stopgap at QB. The rebuild begins.
Year two (2021): 10-7 with a rookie at QB. Makes the playoffs. (terrible GMing to build a team to go to the playoffs with a rookie QB? only in bizarro-world)
Year three (2022): 8-9 misses the playoffs. Yeah, bad year, but just one game under .500. (so for these first three years of a rebuild they went 25-25 with a playoff appearance)
Year four (2023): 3-11 with 7 of those 11 losses being one score games. Still, a disaster.

So that's the record. For how many years now has BB been a "god awful GM" and "quantifiably bad at his job"?

rodderick · Dec 21, 2023

Jinhocho said:
People just want to bash everything BB does.

For goodness sake, the guy was GM for 20 years of dominance, switching up his offensive and defensive style to exploit inefficiencies. He has also been able to draft guys for years to grow into roles over a couple years (coached up) to replace guys who were going to move on at their end of deal. It doesnt take a huge squint on this team to say that if Mac had turned into a top 15 QB that this years roster is a playoff one. It is really really hard to win in todays NFL without a QB and we have had the worst in football while they dug this hole.

It just so happens that A) even though I'm the furthest thing from a Mac fan there's no way one could reasonably argue coaching, play calling and overall roster construction didn't play a HUGE part in him not becoming a competent NFL QB and B) they'll be looking for a new QB next year to start yet another rebuild and it's reasonable to question whether the guy that failed in identifying and developing the previous one should be in charge of making that pick. The idea that Bill was sabotaged by terrible QB play would be a whole lot more valid if he didn't have control over the entirety of the roster/staff.

BaseballJones said:
How many years is "many years now"? Because just five years ago they won the Super Bowl, and the following year (just four years ago) they went 12-4 and won the division. Yes, they lost in the playoffs, but no team that goes 12-4 is a victim of terrible GM work. So that leaves the last four years, which are well documented.

Year one (2020): 7-9 with Cam as a stopgap at QB. The rebuild begins.
Year two (2021): 10-7 with a rookie at QB. Makes the playoffs. (terrible GMing to build a team to go to the playoffs with a rookie QB? only in bizarro-world)
Year three (2022): 8-9 misses the playoffs. Yeah, bad year, but just one game under .500. (so for these first three years of a rebuild they went 25-25 with a playoff appearance)
Year four (2023): 3-11 with 7 of those 11 losses being one score games. Still, a disaster.

So that's the record. For how many years now has BB been a "god awful GM" and "quantifiably bad at his job"?

If we're just going by those four years to make a judgment and not taking any past success into account, then yes, that's a poor job by NFL standards and one that would get most coaches/GMs fired. I mean, Tom Telesco and Brandon Staley are widely seen as absolute jokes and were just fired midseason after 3 years of .500 ball and one playoff appearance. Now, of course Bill should get a lore more leeway than Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco, but the past four years have been bad, man.

johnmd20 · Dec 21, 2023

Jinhocho said:
Yep I get that Ralph, but yours is a different post than his.

The rebuttal is that the left guard is out for the season due to injury, the left tackle has missed substantial time due to injury, the backup left tackle missed time early and is now out with a concussions, and injuries have been all across the line really hurting it for continuity. It has been a sizeable amount of games missed and that doesnt even account for Reif and the other guy they signed in the offseason who both were hurt all year. Their starting running back is now about for a good while with an injury. They have missed multiple games each for their top WR (Bourne out for season, Parker missed multiple games, JJSS as well, and Douglas has missed multiple games with concussions). About the only positions on O they have been healthy at for much of the season are QB and TE, making the QB situation/suck that much worse.

On defense, they have missed substantial time for their Gonzalez, Jack Jones before being let go, their wiz kid returrner and corner in Marcus Jones who I believe that the beginning of the year slotted in as their 2, 3 and 4 corners. I think Jonathan Jones also missed a couple games. I mean those are huge hits.

I lay it very much on the QB position because well honestly Mac sucks and his turnovers and lack of production were back breakers this year.

I think you could also make a case that in losing 7 games by a score or less that in a normal year they will win at least a few of those.

If we were evaluation this team from afar for its on the field performance, we would be saying terrible QB play/implosion of Jones, offensive line woes, and across the board offensive injuries. I tend to pin a lion's share on Jones because he has been worse than Zach WIlson. Literally, Pats fans spent inordinate time defending a guy who is...worse than Zach Wilson.

It is kind of crazy how only the players on New England get injured. There have barely been any injuries for other teams this season. Cleveland? Healthy up the down the line. Baltimore? Literally pristine. Minnesota? Still playing 100% of their starters. Indy? VERY healthy. Buffalo? They haven't lost their best players on defense at all. Cinncy? Kind of a miracle season for them with injuries, actually.

It's wild how it has only impacted the Pats.

lexrageorge · Dec 21, 2023

johnmd20 said:
It is kind of crazy how only the players on New England get injured. There have barely been any injuries for other teams this season. Cleveland? Healthy up the down the line. Baltimore? Literally pristine. Minnesota? Still playing 100% of their starters. Indy? VERY healthy. Buffalo? They haven't lost their best players on defense at all. Cinncy? Kind of a miracle season for them with injuries, actually.

It's wild how it has only impacted the Pats.

Don't think anyone is claiming that every other team is healthy. But the Pats OL injury problems are indeed very real and at least one of several factors in the team's struggles.

Ralphwiggum · Dec 21, 2023

johnmd20 said:
It is kind of crazy how only the players on New England get injured. There have barely been any injuries for other teams this season. Cleveland? Healthy up the down the line. Baltimore? Literally pristine. Minnesota? Still playing 100% of their starters. Indy? VERY healthy. Buffalo? They haven't lost their best players on defense at all. Cinncy? Kind of a miracle season for them with injuries, actually.

It's wild how it has only impacted the Pats.

Also past Patriot teams have suffered from catastrophic injuries and still remained at the top of the league. Hell the won a fucking Super Bowl in a year in which Gronk was out for the playoffs. They even won 11 games without Tom Brady one year. Bill Belichick used to be able to put together a deep roster that could withstand the inevitable injuries that every NFL team suffers. Even with the injuries they have had this year I never thought a BB coached team would bottom out with 2-3 wins. I thought 7 or so was the absolute floor even with bad injury luck.

lexrageorge · Dec 21, 2023

Ralphwiggum said:
Also past Patriot teams have suffered from catastrophic injuries and still remained at the top of the league. Hell the won a fucking Super Bowl in a year in which Gronk was out for the playoffs. They even won 11 games without Tom Brady one year. Bill Belichick used to be able to put together a deep roster that could withstand the inevitable injuries that every NFL team suffers. Even with the injuries they have had this year I never thought a BB coached team would bottom out with 2-3 wins. I thought 7 or so was the absolute floor even with bad injury luck.

When your starting caliber players are not that good, which is the case with the Pats offense, or if too many of them get injured, then it stands to reason that the depth players will not be that good either. Losing a single player at a key position, a-la Gronk, is one thing. But the Pats have used 14 different starting OL combinations this season. That's not excuse making; that's just reality, and it's a reality that is going to create problems for the entire offense. Their projected starters were Brown, Strange, Reiff, Onwenu, Andrews, all but Andrews have had numerous injuries over the course of the season. Now some of that is indeed on Bill for roster management; Reiff and Calvin Anderson were probably not the best choice of players to bring in, even if their injuries (and illness in Anderson's case) were not predictable. The other depth guys were available in September for a reason. The tight ends are horrible at blocking.

Notwithstanding the claims of the Belichick detractors here, the Pats defense has been better than average this season even with losing 3 key pieces and having a promising young DB in Jack Jones go off the reservation. There's enough starting caliber quality across the roster that the team can plug in their depth pieces and still perform acceptably well. However, that doesn't exist on the offense. Add in bad QB play and you have a 3-4 win team.

There are some bright spots on the OL: Sidey Sow has looked better recently, and Strange was playing well before his injury. Still, the unit is going to need a major revamp this offseason. Cannot count on Trent Brown being healthy or even wanting to return here. Onwenu will be a UFA. Andrews is not getting any younger. Strange's injury could keep him out of his 2nd consecutive training camp. Calvin Anderson's illness appears rather ominous, as does OL coach Adrian Klemm's. So any new GM is going to have his work cut out for him.

PC Drunken Friar · Dec 21, 2023

Jinhocho said:
Well in losing seven 1 score or less games the little luck just might be the difference between 3-11 the record vegas expected.

Not all 1 score games are created equally. Also, the Pats' offense has been so inept, that has to play into the game planning against them, right?

~~Phili~~- Down 11 with 5 minutes left. Phili probably wasn't sweating this one.
Miami- Miami last scored with 5 minutes left. Had a shot.
~~Vegas~~- Down 9 with 3:33 left
Washington- They scored 10 straight in the last 7 minutes, Pats had a shot.
Colts- Mac INT game, could have won.
Giants- a TD would have won this game.
~~Chargers~~- Looks winnable, but they were NOT scoring this game.

They also won 3 games decided by 1 score. So, by my scientific reasoning, they are 3-4 (3-5 if you want the Charger game) in one score games. a little luck may have won them another game?

Ralphwiggum · Dec 21, 2023

lexrageorge said:
When your starting caliber players are not that good, which is the case with the Pats offense, or if too many of them get injured, then it stands to reason that the depth players will not be that good either.

Yeah, that was the point of my post.

Again, I am on the fence and I don't really know whether I want Bill to be in charge of the rebuild or not, I am glad it isn't my decision. He's a legend and a big reason why there are 6 Lombardis at Patriot Place. But the roster on offense is garbage and lacks depth across multiple different positions. That makes me wonder whether Bill is capable at this point of putting together a roster on offense that can compete with the top teams in the league.

Yes the D is good and I think he can still pick players on defense and coach them up. The offense is the issue. As we've seen the last few years even the best defenses in the league cannot completely contain the elite offenses. You need to be able to score points.

DennyDoyle'sBoil · Dec 21, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
Strange is an average guard that was picked way above his expected draft slot. From a value perspective, he's been a bust. Marcus Jones has been on IR the whole season and the jury is still out on him– although he is intriguing. Jack Jones isn't on the team anymore. Tyquan Thornton may be worse than N'Keal Harry. I didn't think that was possible. Everyone else has been shuttled back and forth to the practice squad, has barely produced, or isn't on the team anymore. What team had a worse draft?

TricorneMafia said:
It doesn't matter what he did for 20 years. You don't give a 40 year-old Jerry Rice a max deal because of what he used to do. It's the same with coaches. They might not physically decline like players, but Bill's stubbornness has this franchise in quicksand while the game and the rest of the league passes by. He's been drafting poorly even before Brady left for years now. His free agent acquisitions have sucked. His choice of assistant coaches has been awful. Achord, Judge, Patricia as O coordinator? Even Troy Brown is bad as a receivers coach. He picked McCorkle. This is totally on him and no way should he be the GM going forward.

TricorneMafia said:
With a little luck? Vegas had the Pats 7-10 well before the season and Mac's implosion. Bill didn't just get unlucky with Mac– he has a whole track record of being a god awful GM for many years now. You get tired of hearing the bashing, I get tired of hearing excuses for a GM that is quantifiably bad at his job without a certain QB from California to cover for him.

You seem …. familiar to me. If you call me adorable, it will be a tell.

johnmd20 · Dec 21, 2023

lexrageorge said:
Don't think anyone is claiming that every other team is healthy. But the Pats OL injury problems are indeed very real and at least one of several factors in the team's struggles.

Why is Baltimore 10-4 and Cinncy 8-6 then? The Browns have like 30% of their salary cap on the IR. They are 9-5. Everyone has the injury factor. The Rams are 7-7 and their entire roster outside of Donald, Kupp, and Stafford is 21 years old and a lot of them are just undrafted free agents.

The factor in the Patriots being terrible is that their entire offensive operation is awful. They don't have talent anywhere and nothing is inspiring. That falls to the GM and the coach. Can they turn it around? If things continue on the same path as they have gone, with old voices doing the same old shit, no they can't. The offense has been bad for a while now, in fact.

People are in denial. The Patriots lost three straight games holding opponents to 10 points or less. No excuse for that.

Cleveland trots out the corpse of Joe Flacco and he's got 7 TDs in 3 games with the entire offensive line hurt and the RB1 gone since Week 2.

Rico Guapo · Dec 21, 2023

BaseballJones said:
How many years is "many years now"? Because just five years ago they won the Super Bowl, and the following year (just four years ago) they went 12-4 and won the division. Yes, they lost in the playoffs, but no team that goes 12-4 is a victim of terrible GM work. So that leaves the last four years, which are well documented.

Year one (2020): 7-9 with Cam as a stopgap at QB. The rebuild begins.
Year two (2021): 10-7 with a rookie at QB. Makes the playoffs. (terrible GMing to build a team to go to the playoffs with a rookie QB? only in bizarro-world)
Year three (2022): 8-9 misses the playoffs. Yeah, bad year, but just one game under .500. (so for these first three years of a rebuild they went 25-25 with a playoff appearance)
Year four (2023): 3-11 with 7 of those 11 losses being one score games. Still, a disaster.

So that's the record. For how many years now has BB been a "god awful GM" and "quantifiably bad at his job"?

2021, three wins against teams with winning records.
2022, seven of their eight wins come against backup or third string QBs.

They've been sneakily bad since Brady left with the wheels really falling off this year.

BaseballJones · Dec 21, 2023

Rico Guapo said:
2021, three wins against teams with winning records.
2022, seven of their eight wins come against backup or third string QBs.

They've been sneakily bad since Brady left with the wheels really falling off this year.

You are what your record says you are, right?

BaseballJones · Dec 21, 2023

rodderick said:
It just so happens that A) even though I'm the furthest thing from a Mac fan there's no way one could reasonably argue coaching, play calling and overall roster construction didn't play a HUGE part in him not becoming a competent NFL QB and B) they'll be looking for a new QB next year to start yet another rebuild and it's reasonable to question whether the guy that failed in identifying and developing the previous one should be in charge of making that pick. The idea that Bill was sabotaged by terrible QB play would be a whole lot more valid if he didn't have control over the entirety of the roster/staff.

If we're just going by those four years to make a judgment and not taking any past success into account, then yes, that's a poor job by NFL standards and one that would get most coaches/GMs fired. I mean, Tom Telesco and Brandon Staley are widely seen as absolute jokes and were just fired midseason after 3 years of .500 ball and one playoff appearance. Now, of course Bill should get a lore more leeway than Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco, but the past four years have been bad, man.

Three of those four years, totaled up, the Pats were .500. That's bad by Pats standards, but that's not actually *bad*. This year obviously is very different.

But I wasn't arguing that BB has done a good job; just that it's a far cry from "god awful GM" and "quantifiably bad at his job".

Jinhocho · Dec 21, 2023

rodderick said:
It just so happens that A) even though I'm the furthest thing from a Mac fan there's no way one could reasonably argue coaching, play calling and overall roster construction didn't play a HUGE part in him not becoming a competent NFL QB and B) they'll be looking for a new QB next year to start yet another rebuild and it's reasonable to question whether the guy that failed in identifying and developing the previous one should be in charge of making that pick. The idea that Bill was sabotaged by terrible QB play would be a whole lot more valid if he didn't have control over the entirety of the roster/staff.

If we're just going by those four years to make a judgment and not taking any past success into account, then yes, that's a poor job by NFL standards and one that would get most coaches/GMs fired. I mean, Tom Telesco and Brandon Staley are widely seen as absolute jokes and were just fired midseason after 3 years of .500 ball and one playoff appearance. Now, of course Bill should get a lore more leeway than Brandon Staley and Tom Telesco, but the past four years have been bad, man.

Except for, as you say, his consistent record of excellence that is unlikely to be repeated as both a coach or GM.

Year one (2020): 7-9 with Cam as a stopgap at QB. The rebuild begins.
We all knew this year was not going to be great. I remember multiple times hearing it said this might have been one of BB's best coaching jobs with this team. The details are getting hazy but they were a couple of late game fumbles (one by Cam) away from the playoffs. I do not view this as an awful result for the season given where we had been, where we were, etc.

Year two (2021): 10-7 with a rookie at QB. Makes the playoffs. (terrible GMing to build a team to go to the playoffs with a rookie QB? only in bizarro-world)
I would argue the difference between 7-9 and 10-7 was Mac Jones for the first 2/3 of the season. There was also the no pass game against Buffalo. We could all see it though, they were not equipped for a deep run in the playoffs.

Year three (2022): 8-9 misses the playoffs. Yeah, bad year, but just one game under .500. (so for these first three years of a rebuild they went 25-25 with a playoff appearance)
This was by far the year I hated most. One thing I do fault Bill for was he let so many coaches walk out the door with McDaniels. We should have hung on to some of those guys - maybe a case of Bill being too nice for Josh? This resulted in the Patricia/Judge experiment, the Mac Jones soft mutiny and tantrums, the freaking Raiders game and a missed playoff game due to meatheadery. It also showed some of us Mac was not going to be the guy, and slowly as more people switched to this view in that year and current year they laid it all on Bill. I guess for me, it is 85%+ on Mac as just not being good enough as a player and also quite immature. In fairness to both Mac and Bill, most QB do not make it in the NFL.

Year four (2023): 3-11 with 7 of those 11 losses being one score games. Still, a disaster.
I think this year is a disaster. There is no way not to look at 3-11 as being anything but. I am not a fan of tanking, but many people clamoring for Bills head have been pro tank. It is a weird conundrum. For me, watching the games it has been frustrating to see the continuation of errors from the past. However, my own personal theory is they went into this year with Mac or bust. They brought in a familiar (to mac and bill) OC, set him up to succeed playcalling etc. However, this year we just saw Mac be worse than Desmond Ridder, Zach Wilson etc. He was literally the worst starter in the NFL and yeah thats about ballgame there. I like the defense, see it as a solid draft, appreciate the players are still giving it their all, and that they have basically been in all but 2 games. I am very glad we are done with the Mac experience.

The team has a ton of money to spend in the offseason, has a high draft pick coming in and a top of the round slot in every round. It strikes me that with competent QB play, players returning from injury, shoring up left tackle (Brown is def gone), adding a very good receiver, and some improvements to the pass rush, and a little health this team will be at worst back above 500 next year. I keep thinking back to the early/mid 1990s.

1993 5-11
1994 10-6
1995 6-10
1996 11-5
'
I keep thinking of 1995. I believe that was the year Shannon Sharpe said call out the national guard we done killed the patriots. I still remember walking into that game thinking this was going to be the year we smacked the broncos and turned the season around lol.

Look, I am not someone who is blindly all in on Bill. He has lost his core people in recent years (Adams, Scar, Fears, and a host of others), he is getting up there in age, and the NFL is not a patient business. All that being said, I still see well crafted game plans, him putting them in a position to be in it almost every week, and so on. If Mac had shown last year was a blip or a bump, what do you think they would be? 8-6? 7-7? 6-7? worse? better? We all knew going in they had a really tough schedule this year and when you add that to Mac fail, all the injuries, and some bad luck their tiny margin of error is a joke.

I guess I still believe enough in Bill and the way he builds teams to see possibility here. I am all in on Bill as coach and GM for next year, with an expectation of a big improvement. If that is not forthcoming, he has at best one more year here if I owned the team.

tims4wins · Dec 21, 2023

Jinhocho said:
Except for, as you say, his consistent record of excellence that is unlikely to be repeated as both a coach or GM.

Year one (2020): 7-9 with Cam as a stopgap at QB. The rebuild begins.
We all knew this year was not going to be great. I remember multiple times hearing it said this might have been one of BB's best coaching jobs with this team. The details are getting hazy but they were a couple of late game fumbles (one by Cam) away from the playoffs. I do not view this as an awful result for the season given where we had been, where we were, etc.

Year two (2021): 10-7 with a rookie at QB. Makes the playoffs. (terrible GMing to build a team to go to the playoffs with a rookie QB? only in bizarro-world)
I would argue the difference between 7-9 and 10-7 was Mac Jones for the first 2/3 of the season. There was also the no pass game against Buffalo. We could all see it though, they were not equipped for a deep run in the playoffs.

Year three (2022): 8-9 misses the playoffs. Yeah, bad year, but just one game under .500. (so for these first three years of a rebuild they went 25-25 with a playoff appearance)
This was by far the year I hated most. One thing I do fault Bill for was he let so many coaches walk out the door with McDaniels. We should have hung on to some of those guys - maybe a case of Bill being too nice for Josh? This resulted in the Patricia/Judge experiment, the Mac Jones soft mutiny and tantrums, the freaking Raiders game and a missed playoff game due to meatheadery. It also showed some of us Mac was not going to be the guy, and slowly as more people switched to this view in that year and current year they laid it all on Bill. I guess for me, it is 85%+ on Mac as just not being good enough as a player and also quite immature. In fairness to both Mac and Bill, most QB do not make it in the NFL.

Year four (2023): 3-11 with 7 of those 11 losses being one score games. Still, a disaster.
I think this year is a disaster. There is no way not to look at 3-11 as being anything but. I am not a fan of tanking, but many people clamoring for Bills head have been pro tank. It is a weird conundrum. For me, watching the games it has been frustrating to see the continuation of errors from the past. However, my own personal theory is they went into this year with Mac or bust. They brought in a familiar (to mac and bill) OC, set him up to succeed playcalling etc. However, this year we just saw Mac be worse than Desmond Ridder, Zach Wilson etc. He was literally the worst starter in the NFL and yeah thats about ballgame there. I like the defense, see it as a solid draft, appreciate the players are still giving it their all, and that they have basically been in all but 2 games. I am very glad we are done with the Mac experience.

The team has a ton of money to spend in the offseason, has a high draft pick coming in and a top of the round slot in every round. It strikes me that with competent QB play, players returning from injury, shoring up left tackle (Brown is def gone), adding a very good receiver, and some improvements to the pass rush, and a little health this team will be at worst back above 500 next year. I keep thinking back to the early/mid 1990s.

1993 5-11
1994 10-6
1995 6-10
1996 11-5
'
I keep thinking of 1995. I believe that was the year Shannon Sharpe said call out the national guard we done killed the patriots. I still remember walking into that game thinking this was going to be the year we smacked the broncos and turned the season around lol.

Look, I am not someone who is blindly all in on Bill. He has lost his core people in recent years (Adams, Scar, Fears, and a host of others), he is getting up there in age, and the NFL is not a patient business. All that being said, I still see well crafted game plans, him putting them in a position to be in it almost every week, and so on. If Mac had shown last year was a blip or a bump, what do you think they would be? 8-6? 7-7? 6-7? worse? better? We all knew going in they had a really tough schedule this year and when you add that to Mac fail, all the injuries, and some bad luck their tiny margin of error is a joke.

I guess I still believe enough in Bill and the way he builds teams to see possibility here. I am all in on Bill as coach and GM for next year, with an expectation of a big improvement. If that is not forthcoming, he has at best one more year here if I owned the team.

1996.

rodderick · Dec 21, 2023

Jinhocho said:
Except for, as you say, his consistent record of excellence that is unlikely to be repeated as both a coach or GM.

Year one (2020): 7-9 with Cam as a stopgap at QB. The rebuild begins.
We all knew this year was not going to be great. I remember multiple times hearing it said this might have been one of BB's best coaching jobs with this team. The details are getting hazy but they were a couple of late game fumbles (one by Cam) away from the playoffs. I do not view this as an awful result for the season given where we had been, where we were, etc.

Year two (2021): 10-7 with a rookie at QB. Makes the playoffs. (terrible GMing to build a team to go to the playoffs with a rookie QB? only in bizarro-world)
I would argue the difference between 7-9 and 10-7 was Mac Jones for the first 2/3 of the season. There was also the no pass game against Buffalo. We could all see it though, they were not equipped for a deep run in the playoffs.

Year three (2022): 8-9 misses the playoffs. Yeah, bad year, but just one game under .500. (so for these first three years of a rebuild they went 25-25 with a playoff appearance)
This was by far the year I hated most. One thing I do fault Bill for was he let so many coaches walk out the door with McDaniels. We should have hung on to some of those guys - maybe a case of Bill being too nice for Josh? This resulted in the Patricia/Judge experiment, the Mac Jones soft mutiny and tantrums, the freaking Raiders game and a missed playoff game due to meatheadery. It also showed some of us Mac was not going to be the guy, and slowly as more people switched to this view in that year and current year they laid it all on Bill. I guess for me, it is 85%+ on Mac as just not being good enough as a player and also quite immature. In fairness to both Mac and Bill, most QB do not make it in the NFL.

Year four (2023): 3-11 with 7 of those 11 losses being one score games. Still, a disaster.
I think this year is a disaster. There is no way not to look at 3-11 as being anything but. I am not a fan of tanking, but many people clamoring for Bills head have been pro tank. It is a weird conundrum. For me, watching the games it has been frustrating to see the continuation of errors from the past. However, my own personal theory is they went into this year with Mac or bust. They brought in a familiar (to mac and bill) OC, set him up to succeed playcalling etc. However, this year we just saw Mac be worse than Desmond Ridder, Zach Wilson etc. He was literally the worst starter in the NFL and yeah thats about ballgame there. I like the defense, see it as a solid draft, appreciate the players are still giving it their all, and that they have basically been in all but 2 games. I am very glad we are done with the Mac experience.

The team has a ton of money to spend in the offseason, has a high draft pick coming in and a top of the round slot in every round. It strikes me that with competent QB play, players returning from injury, shoring up left tackle (Brown is def gone), adding a very good receiver, and some improvements to the pass rush, and a little health this team will be at worst back above 500 next year. I keep thinking back to the early/mid 1990s.

1993 5-11
1994 10-6
1995 6-10
1996 11-5
'
I keep thinking of 1995. I believe that was the year Shannon Sharpe said call out the national guard we done killed the patriots. I still remember walking into that game thinking this was going to be the year we smacked the broncos and turned the season around lol.

Look, I am not someone who is blindly all in on Bill. He has lost his core people in recent years (Adams, Scar, Fears, and a host of others), he is getting up there in age, and the NFL is not a patient business. All that being said, I still see well crafted game plans, him putting them in a position to be in it almost every week, and so on. If Mac had shown last year was a blip or a bump, what do you think they would be? 8-6? 7-7? 6-7? worse? better? We all knew going in they had a really tough schedule this year and when you add that to Mac fail, all the injuries, and some bad luck their tiny margin of error is a joke.

I guess I still believe enough in Bill and the way he builds teams to see possibility here. I am all in on Bill as coach and GM for next year, with an expectation of a big improvement. If that is not forthcoming, he has at best one more year here if I owned the team.

The 2-12 Panthers have lost 5 games by one score, it's how the league works, even the worst teams aren't blown out every single week. The Patriots are what they are, they have a bottom 3 special teams, a bottom 3 offense and a top half or so defense. They have the 4th worst point differential in football. They haven't been particularly unlucky, in 2023 when you can't score, you lose games, it's pretty much that simple. I think it's far easier to make an argument that their 2022 record was inflated by facing 8 backup QBs and having 8 non-offensive TDs than it is to say they've actually been better than 3-11 this season. Similarly, when they stopped facing terrible/injury riddled teams they sank down the stretch in 2021. Fact is they haven't been able to overcome talent deficits since the Super Bowl against the Rams, they've lost pretty much every single game in which they took the field as the worst roster sans the Bills game this year and the one in the snowstorm in 2021, and unfortunately they've had the worst roster in a lot of matchups.

It is what it is, if you're hanging onto what Bill accomplished during the dynasty years as indication of his ability to turn it around I think that's understandable, but since about Week 11, 2019 the team has been just as bad as their results. And said results would get pretty much any other coach/GM fired with zero hand wringing from the media and the fanbase.

lexrageorge · Dec 21, 2023

rodderick said:
It is what it is, if you're hanging onto what Bill accomplished during the dynasty years as indication of his ability to turn it around I think that's understandable, but since about Week 11, 2019 the team has been just as bad as their results. And said results would get pretty much any other coach/GM fired with zero hand wringing from the media and the fanbase.

The last sentence seems more of an indictment of NFL owners than a reason to can Bill Belichick.

TricorneMafia · Dec 21, 2023

DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
You seem …. familiar to me. If you call me adorable, it will be a tell.

I'm not feeling that zesty this morning.

TricorneMafia · Dec 21, 2023

BaseballJones said:
How many years is "many years now"? Because just five years ago they won the Super Bowl, and the following year (just four years ago) they went 12-4 and won the division. Yes, they lost in the playoffs, but no team that goes 12-4 is a victim of terrible GM work. So that leaves the last four years, which are well documented.

Year one (2020): 7-9 with Cam as a stopgap at QB. The rebuild begins.
Year two (2021): 10-7 with a rookie at QB. Makes the playoffs. (terrible GMing to build a team to go to the playoffs with a rookie QB? only in bizarro-world)
Year three (2022): 8-9 misses the playoffs. Yeah, bad year, but just one game under .500. (so for these first three years of a rebuild they went 25-25 with a playoff appearance)
Year four (2023): 3-11 with 7 of those 11 losses being one score games. Still, a disaster.

So that's the record. For how many years now has BB been a "god awful GM" and "quantifiably bad at his job"?

5 years. The effects of a bad draft don't necessarily manifest right away. What evidence do you have that he's been a good GM since '19?

BigJimEd · Dec 21, 2023

Don't we have multiple threads on Belichick where these arguments have been repeated multiple times over?

BaseballJones · Dec 21, 2023

TricorneMafia said:
5 years. The effects of a bad draft don't necessarily manifest right away. What evidence do you have that he's been a good GM since '19?

I didn't say he was doing a good job. I was asking how long has he been a "god awful GM", which was the phrase you used.

I don't agree with your take, but that's ok.

tims4wins · Dec 21, 2023

I agree that he’s been a god awful GM for years. Just because they went 12-4 in 2019 or 10-7 in 2021 doesn’t mean he’s done a good job. The 2021 season was a result of a free agent spending bonanza that was necessitated by years of awful drafting. And it only partially worked. Several of those signings were complete busts. The 3-11 record can’t be looked at as one bad / unlucky year. It is the culmination of years of bad moves, dating back a very long time.

Edit there have been a lot of downstream effects at the TE, WR, and OL positions that have put them in this situation

Also, last year’s 8 wins were a mirage. 8 ST/D TDs is fluky no matter how good your units are.

Jinhocho · Dec 21, 2023

tims4wins said:
I agree that he’s been a god awful GM for years. Just because they went 12-4 in 2019 or 10-7 in 2021 doesn’t mean he’s done a good job. The 2021 season was a result of a free agent spending bonanza that was necessitated by years of awful drafting. And it only partially worked. Several of those signings were complete busts. The 3-11 record can’t be looked at as one bad / unlucky year. It is the culmination of years of bad moves, dating back a very long time.

Edit there have been a lot of downstream effects at the TE, WR, and OL positions that have put them in this situation

Also, last year’s 8 wins were a mirage. 8 ST/D TDs is fluky no matter how good your units are.

I tend to disagree with the conclusion but see how you got there. Throughout the entire run he has generally done things different than others. He picks people to slot into roles a couple years down the line more so than most. It has rarely been BPA but rather get the guy who will redshirt and skill up and in year three replace the guy who leaves in fa. It has happened over and over. I think it has been an underrated part of his approach over the years and enabled us to keep the ball rolling far longer than most. It basically allowed us to not have to reset entirely for almost all of Brady career. Maybe it needs to change, but I am fine waiting to see how next season goes before coming to a firm decision as long as we do either a) sign a veteran QB and draft an elite lt in the first or b) draft one of the top QB in the first and sign a l very good eft tackle.

rodderick · Dec 21, 2023

lexrageorge said:
The last sentence seems more of an indictment of NFL owners than a reason to can Bill Belichick.

How many years would it take, then? Or does he just get to do it for as long as he wants because he's Bill Belichick? I just want to have a parameter of what would need to happen for an HC with his accomplishments to warrant being fired. Tom Landry went 10-6, 7-9, 7-9, 3-13 before getting canned (at age 64). Four years later the Cowboys won the Super Bowl.

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