Mayo: Season 1
- Thread starter DJnVa
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Robinson is getting plenty of interest from other teams as an offensive coordinator. Not sure why he would need McDaniels or anyone else to help him ( I realize you were going off of what was reported; I'm just skeptical of the report). Also, don't see how McDaniels' offense fits with the McVay system, and further I simply doubt Mayo wants him back. He's old hat.
Talking about it is definitely new. But the Patriots, by rule, have to spend. A lot. It's gonna be interesting.
I really hope they dont find themselves in the Red Sox position of having to throw good money at overrated players no one else wants. To the people here who were not fans of this team pre-Belichick, convincing high profile desired free agents to play here will not be an easy task.
NFL free agency is unique. Players will sign anywhere if they can make money; even the Lions and Jets were able to sign free agents from the Pats. There are exceptions, of course, but not worth worrying about this offseason.
Biggest issue is that the team needs may not line up with the available free agents.
Right, just look back to 2021. Mixed bag. Judon wasn't overrated, that was a great signing. Henry was a slight overpay but that's been fine. Agholor and Jonnu were bad signings. But the Pats didn't overpay guys no one else wanted. They just struck quickly.
Good players sign with bad teams fairly frequently in the NFL. Bad teams usually have the cap space to make large offers. You always have exceptions of guys who chase rings for a discount of course, but cap space and willingness to spend is usually the selling factor in the NFL. Competitiveness, the coach, culture etc could be a tiebreaker but parity being what it is in the NFL, few teams are so moribund to preclude them from grabbing top players
That said, overpaying for overrated players is the name of the game in free agency. See last year’s tackle class for example. It’s why BB’s free agency strategy worked well for so long. A few targeted shots at premium big money players (Gilmore, A.Thomas, Colvin, Judon) and a lot of shots at more bargain bin types. It’s a good way to avoid eating dead cap for guys who don’t pan out (though Jonnu Smith and Thomas ended up bad signings for different reasons).
The Pats are going to spend a lot of money, and likely a good portion of it is going to be money poorly spent when we look back on it in 2-3 years. That’s just the nature of NFL free agency where position scarcity drives up prices for mediocre players and guys decline quickly (or fail to fit the system and replicate the results in their previous system)
Baseball tends to be more plug and play. A slugger for the Marlins (if healthy) is likely to hit similarly for other teams and there’s data out there to project out differences in home ballparks etc. Similar with pitchers. Football is totally different where a guy could be a stud in one scheme and a total failure for another coach in another scheme, it’s much harder to project.
Given the market rate for WR, I don’t know that Agholor was a significant overpay. 11M AAV is in the ballpark of what you’d expect a #3 or very low end #2 to get paid in the open market these days. Guys like Lazard, MVS, Chark, Gage, Fuller have all gotten similar deals recently. An overpay but not an egregious one especially given the limited length of the deal. I think they gambled on Agholor (who they reportedly liked in his draft year) fitting their system and blossoming a bit with expanded playing time and the 3 guys who got bigger contracts (Golladay, Samuel, Davis) all ended up as bad or worse signings with only Samuel sort of earning his contract (in volume, though he hasn’t been the big play/dynamic guy they thought).
Very few WR free agent contracts ever look good in hindsight. Unless you’re paying a proven #1 on the right side of 30, you’re likely going to end up with bad bang for your buck - same as tackle.
Agholor, with better QB play probably ends up a “meh” signing given the going rates at the position. Not a particularly good player and never developed the way he was projected to coming out of school, but, as he showed this year, he’s not a bad #3 and can play a useful albeit flawed role on a competent offense.
Oh totally agree on Agholor. Only a slight overpay. I meant bad signing because it didn't work out.
It was also a short deal, as were a lot of that offseason's for NE. They had to spend, they wanted to help out a rookie QB and it was a meh offensive class, so they loaded up on guys but kept most of the deals short even if it meant a slightly higher AAV.
Hi, I dont have a subscription to the Athletic, what are the main points & pros and cons that the author discusses? Thank you!
That article was crap. I'll summarize: There's no QB, WR, or OT worth spending money on. There are no other positions in football.
The point of the article (no QB, WR, or OT worth spending money on) may or may not be true; but what about the other positions.
The article that needs to be written is "where/how should the Pats spend their available cap?"
My answer to that question:
- Re-sign Onwenu (rumors suggest that may not be possible)
- Extend Barmore.
- Sign a WR -- Higgins, Pittman, or Ridley, ideally
- Re-sign or replace Dugger.
- Replace Zeke (Antonio Gibson, maybe?)
- Find a TE who can block. Maybe this is the Pharaoh. Maybe a mid-round draft pick
- Consider if Mekhi Becton can be salvaged with a change of scenery.
NAh it's Graff so he says "if they want to compete maybe?" then goes on to give an incredibly simplistic evaluation of other positions, including not even addressing that the top WRs will probably get tagged.
They need to re-sign or replace Henry and a bunch of linebackers (Uche, Wilson, Jennings) which will eat away at their cap. Another CB is a possibility as are replacements for Guy and Phillips if they’re cut.
The tackle spot is the lynchpin for the whole off-season. The free agent crop other than Brown and Onwenu is bad or awful. They’re going to need bodies before the draft. So they’re going to either go with the same approach as RT last season- sign a bunch of crap and hope someone sticks, or overpay for a bad starter or guy with major question marks.
no good options at tackle and needing two of them (if they don’t keep Brown and Onwenu) is a massive mountain to climb.
Cut JC Jackson and you have over $75M in cap space.
Not that I think this will happen but just for fun...
Using the PFF contract estimates + wild guesses for Barmore and Wilson:
Barmore extension - 4 yrs $19M AAV
Mike Onwenu - 4 yrs $14.5M
Jonah Williams - 4 yrs $16M
Kendrick Bourne - 2 yrs $7M
Mack Wilson - 3 yrs $6.75M
Hunter Henry - 2 yrs $6.25M
Anfernee Jennings - 2 yrs $5.25M
That's about ~$72M after discounting Barmore's existing salary. Could make some more room with some restructures and additional cuts to add a few other pieces like an RB or a blocking TE. You lose Dugger and Uche, but I'll take that trade for not having to enter the draft with a gaping tackle hole. And you're not forced to reach for a guy you don't love at the top of the 2nd round because of a run on tackles at the end of the 1st or something like that.
Not that I think this will happen but just for fun...
Using the PFF contract estimates + wild guesses for Barmore and Wilson:
Barmore extension - 4 yrs $19M AAV
Mike Onwenu - 4 yrs $14.5M
Jonah Williams - 4 yrs $16M
Kendrick Bourne - 2 yrs $7M
Mack Wilson - 3 yrs $6.75M
Hunter Henry - 2 yrs $6.25M
Anfernee Jennings - 2 yrs $5.25M
That's about ~$72M after discounting Barmore's existing salary. Could make some more room with some restructures and additional cuts to add a few other pieces like an RB or a blocking TE. You lose Dugger and Uche, but I'll take that trade for not having to enter the draft with a gaping tackle hole. And you're not forced to reach for a guy you don't love at the top of the 2nd round because of a run on tackles at the end of the 1st or something like that.
I think they would have $82. Saw a Miguel tweet on that the other night
View: https://twitter.com/patscap/status/1749453605642318165
So use up almost 90% of the cap space to basically run it back? That doesn’t sound super appealing.
The AAV wouldn't be their cap hit next year. Barmore and Onwenu would be much, much lower.
I haven't seen any real discussion of any potential trade options for filling holes at LT and RT. Are there any possibilities for contracts that teams might be willing to part with for a mid-round pick?
That could be another way to use our cap space. I've looked at the top Tackle contracts, but don't know enough to say who might be available.
That could be another way to use our cap space. I've looked at the top Tackle contracts, but don't know enough to say who might be available.
Those kinds of trades are pretty rare. Trent Williams and Laremy Tunsil were traded with huge contracts and they still cost 1st round picks. Those are the only two high end tackles I can recall recently moving and both were cases where teams without QBs entered clear tear it all down rebuilds.
Maybe the Raiders try to reset and are willing to trade Kolton Miller? Or if everything implodes with Russ in Denver, Garrett Boles?
Perhaps Brian O’Neill of the Vikings. Not sure what Minnesota’s cap situation is but you’d assume between Jefferson’s extension and a new contract for Cousins, they’ll have few resources left to address their shitty defense. Or if Kirk walks, maybe they enter pick accumulation mode for next year.
Hard to say for sure, but at LT.....
Cam Robinson has come up as an unlikely cut candidate, so they might be open to a trade. Bolles in Denver maybe? Saves them a ton of cap which they need
If Zac Robinson is off the board as OC, I wonder if Staley was really an OC candidate or more to come over with Robinson.
If there's no Robinson, I wonder if Josh McDaniels is in the running. Breer said he may be a candidate in Houston assuming Slowik leaves.
If there's no Robinson, I wonder if Josh McDaniels is in the running. Breer said he may be a candidate in Houston assuming Slowik leaves.
I really hope they cast a wider net. Interview some of the top college OCs.
Zac Robinson really seems popular this offseason. Not seeing much in his history to indicate why but he obviously has a good rep around the league. I can't imagine the Patriots were at the top of his or several others list. Rookie HC, no stud WR, a top 3 pick that could be used on a QB.
Zac Robinson really seems popular this offseason. Not seeing much in his history to indicate why but he obviously has a good rep around the league. I can't imagine the Patriots were at the top of his or several others list. Rookie HC, no stud WR, a top 3 pick that could be used on a QB.
I mean, he was there one year after success in LA. Also.... the Panthers had by far the least offensive talent in the league. I honestly think in a combined squad game the Patriots would have between 10 and 11 of the starters (maybe 9 if you kick Onwenwu inside and you love Bryce Young).
It’s pretty rare in todays NFL to find a halfway decent tackle. I don’t think teams are going to be trading them unless the contract is awful or they’re getting a haul of picks for a guy on a soon to expire contract
Feels like Caley is going to be the guy based on NE history and most of these other guys finding jobs elsewhere. Which would be underwhelming to be kind.
I don’t really understand Caley’s appeal, other than he seemed to have a lot of backers in the local media who came out of the woodwork at the height of the Patricia hiring controversy. I’m not sure why, I didn’t hear any of them really explain it; maybe he dishes good intel? Maybe he’s a great coach, but hes almost exclusively coached TEs and he’s never coached QBs. It’s true that TE is among the tougher positions to play from a mental POV, so I’m sure he understands a ton of things about offensive ball, but his narrow experience and my lack of understanding of what skills he brings to the table make me nervous.
One name I'd be interested in seeing is Tee Martin, whose been getting a lot of praise as QB coach for the Ravens this year. Former QB and one of the Brady 6. This article's mostly about how awesome Lamar is but there's some talk about what Tee and Lamar worked on this season:
Also before Baltimore, he spent 7 years at USC as a WRs coach, adding additional titles like passing game coordinator, and then OC for his last 3 years. After a head coaching change he left to the University of Tennessee to become their WR coach for a couple years.
He helped develop some very talented NFL WRs at USC over the years:
Robert Woods
Nelson Agholor
Juju Smith-Schuster
Michael Pittman Jr
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Edit: Martin worked for University of Tennessee after USC, not the Titans.
+ a long article on Tee Martin's coaching career. It seems as if they are focused on McVay tree guys but Martin seems like he'd be a great candidate, especially if they drafted Jayden Daniels.
Also before Baltimore, he spent 7 years at USC as a WRs coach, adding additional titles like passing game coordinator, and then OC for his last 3 years. After a head coaching change he left to the University of Tennessee to become their WR coach for a couple years.
He helped develop some very talented NFL WRs at USC over the years:
Robert Woods
Nelson Agholor
Juju Smith-Schuster
Michael Pittman Jr
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Edit: Martin worked for University of Tennessee after USC, not the Titans.
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Yes, Carolina is lacking in talent. Still not a plus on his side. At best for him you ignore last year altogether. For Rams, he was primarily in charge of RBs and TEs. I guess Hygbee had a solid year under him and Darrell Henderson looked pretty good. At least, Brown does have a bit of experience including OC for UMiami. I wouldn't write him off as an OC but he certainly doesn't excite me.
My point was more about all the known candidates left, I don't see much to get excited about.
People seem to want to get excited over anyone associated with the Rams. There's been a lot of brain drain on that Rams staff over the last few years. Their scoring offense in the last 5 years: 8th, 27th, 7, 22, 11. Good but not anything special. Yes Stafford got hurt in 2022 but they were struggling before then. They were dynamic when they had LaFleur and Taylor. Stafford had an excellent first season but was mediocre this year after being below average and getting injured in 2022. Goff has been better the last couple years than his last couple seasons with the Rams. Not getting me excited about Zac Robinson. Who again was passed over by his own team last year.
Caley was here for several years before being under McVay for a single season. Primarily working with TEs. Does have a couple years as a secondary coach at the college level. Decent amount of experience but most with one position and one org.
Jerrod Johnson has one year as QB coach, one as an assistant QB coach and a couple as a quality control guy.
Any of these guys could end being excellent OCs and the interviews will certainly tell a lot. However, I'd like to see guys with more experience even as an OC in college particular since NE has a rookie coach who is a defensive guy.
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Tee Martin is an interesting name. However, I believe he was the Univ of Tennessee not the Titans.
OCs with experience who are good.... either aren't getting fired or are becoming head coaches though. That's kind of how it works generally.
In terms of the Rams focus, one key thing that has been brought up is.... when you hire an OC you should assume that if he does well you're losing him in 1-2 years. So what you're really hiring him for is to bring in the system.
If you want an experienced OC... you're likely looking at McDaniels, or maybe Kliff?
I also don't want to go for college OCs over pro guys because.... college OC is a less premium/desirable position than things like Pass game coordinator or assistant HC (Brown's position under McVay), so you're taking the guys who either are older re-treads who don't want to take the "demotion" or guys who aren't in the run for pro spots.
I would agree on Passing game coordinator as a good experience and foundation.
Right now we are looking Brown, Caley, Johnson and maybe Robinson. Robinson is the only one with PGC experience and he's likely headed elsewhere. And he's only had two years at that level with a few as an assistant position coach.
That leaves us with Brown, Caley and Johnson.
Thomas Brown does have experience as an OC if only a year. And that offense was bottom of the league, granted with talent to support that ranking. But technically, he'd be one of those retreads mentioned. I believe he also only has a half season of play calling duties.
That leaves us with Caley and Johnson. One whose experience is primarily with TEs and the other with extremely limited experience. That is why I hope they have a wider net than what those reported. Someone like Tee Martin mentioned above should get a look from the Patriots.
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If we want PGC experience what about the guy Robinson replaced as PGC in LA (Wes Phillips)? O'Connell took him to Minnesota to be his OC, but he's not calling any plays there. Could a bump to OC with playcalling duties + Assistant HC or something convince him to move?
Brown was assistant head coach as well, I'd also say that TE coach is considered a top position for moving to OC because it works with both the pass game and run game groups, so it's seen as a spot you put a guy who you think is a future coordinator because it gets him in all the meetings.
I don't see Martin as a higher level coach than the others, he was a WRs coach for years which is towards the bottom of the totem pole most places, then one year as QB coach. I'd put him in a similar bucket to Johnson in terms of high level experience, he has more overall coaching experience but he's not a fast riser. To me he's a guy that a lot of staffs didn't see as a top assistant prospect worth giving more experiences and responsibilities.
I will say I don't love any of the options a ton, BUT... I want to see them move to a new system. I don't know what system Martin for example is bringing with him. Caley... meh, he's probably brining you a combination of the McVay and McDaniels? Brown is bringing the McVay system for sure.
Edit- generally my feeling is, unless you are getting someone who has called plays before, you're mostly looking for the system he'll bring with him, because there is no real way to predict what he'll bring as a playcaller. The other consideration I guess is guys who have (like Johnson) a history of developing a rookie QB to point to.
Pretty extensive OC search we are conducting
View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1750980833526088125
"The #Patriots plan to interview #Lions pass game coordinator Tanner Engstrand for their OC position, source said. Engstrand’s name has become a popular one around the NFL thanks to Detroit’s offensive success. Engstrand also worked with Jim Harbaugh earlier in his career."
View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1750980833526088125
"The #Patriots plan to interview #Lions pass game coordinator Tanner Engstrand for their OC position, source said. Engstrand’s name has become a popular one around the NFL thanks to Detroit’s offensive success. Engstrand also worked with Jim Harbaugh earlier in his career."
No kidding. Not a bad thing, given how insular things have been, but I hope they settle on someone soon so they can get to work on the QB draft prep with whomever they hire.
Nick Caley getting a 2nd, in person interview this weekend.
View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1750989649726570758
View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1750989649726570758
View: https://twitter.com/jfowlerespn/status/1751264591986803015?s=46&t=SM8KNBQ5qkrf8EOqnMV5BQ
The #Patriots plan to interview former #Bears OC Luke Getsy for their offensive coordinator job, per source.
Getsy just wrapped up an interview with Las Vegas for the same position.
How many candidates now? Nine?
The #Patriots plan to interview former #Bears OC Luke Getsy for their offensive coordinator job, per source.
Getsy just wrapped up an interview with Las Vegas for the same position.
How many candidates now? Nine?
The Bears have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Why would we want the guy in charge of it? (Yes it’s an upgrade over the offense NE had this year but still…)