So it's your opinion that Whitlock and Crawford and Houck and Bello would have been given opportunities to be in the rotation even with this strategy of retaining or signing free agents?
Based on this list (I know you're just throwing out hypotheticals), the 2022 rotation would have been E-Rod, Pivetta, Gausman, Houck, and Whitlock with Bello (and Sale presumably) maybe breaking through mid-season (perhaps when ERod went AWOL?). Of course there's no mention of Eovaldi who was still around then.
Yes, I am just dealing in hypotheticals and the individual names don't matter The point is that the team has opted out of the free agent pitching market for five years, and has no pitching depth as a result.
But just to go along with your post, I mean, that seems like a totally fine pitching situation to have had in 2022? I'm really not sure what you think the problem with that would have been. Tanner Houck had a 4.32 ERA as a starter that year. Nick Pivetta finished at 4.56. It goes without saying that replacing either one of their workloads with Kevin Gausman would have given a team that won the Wild Card the year before a much better chance at getting back to the postseason.
Sure, I guess Houck would have spent more time in the bullpen and Bello would have spent more time in AAA but all that means is that the bullpen and minor league depth would have been better. Those are self-evidently good things.
Then in 2023, you add Senga while losing none of the rest of them (except maybe Eovaldi). All of whom would also still be around and healthy for spring training 2024 when you add Giolito and Imanaga? I guess maybe E-Rod opts out like he did with the Tigers?
Yes. Once again, you're not really laying out any problems here. You start 2023 with a rotation of Gausman, Senga, ERod, Sale, and whoever you want out of Houck/Whitlock/Kutter/Bello/Pivetta. Whoever you don't believe in long term you either shift to the bullpen, leave in AAA to provide the depth that team didn't have, or trade to improve other areas of the team. A team with that rotation would have entered the season as postseason favorites and then been easily able to weather the injuries that resulted.
There's just no way. No way at all this works. Really the only way it's feasible is pushing Whitlock and Houck and Crawford to the pen full time (Bello stashed at Worcester?) which arguably eliminates them as starters by the end of last year and where's your depth then?
In retrospect, it's nice to say it all fits with those guys on the IL, but they weren't hurt this winter. They weren't hurt last year. Like I said before, this isn't even a matter of payroll. It's roster space.
It is working, right now, for the best team in baseball. The Dodgers didn't let Kershaw walk in 2021 because Dustin May was ready to start. They just added more depth. They didn't pass on Trevor Bauer in 2022 the next season because Walker Buehler turned into an all-star in 2022. They just added more depth. They didn't pass on Yamamoto and Paxton this year because they would have Buehler and Keshaw coming back mid-season. They just added more depth, which allowed them to trade Pepiot, just as it would have allowed the Red Sox to trade assets to improve the team.
The Dodgers have simply decided to keep adding pitchers, through every mechanism available to them. As a result, they've lost the following guys to either injuries, sexual assault, or free agency over the past few years:
Walker Buehler
Dustin May
Tony Gonsolin
Trevor Bauer
Julio Urias
Max Scherzer
. . . and are nevertheless totally fine today.