If the NFL had the CFP...

tims4wins

tims4wins

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Ralphwiggum

Ralphwiggum

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How do you (or do you) account for the fact that one of the Pats' losses came with their third string QB playing with a thumb injury? That also accounts for -16 in point differential.
 
Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Ralphwiggum said:
How do you (or do you) account for the fact that one of the Pats' losses came with their third string QB playing with a thumb injury? That also accounts for -16 in point differential.
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You don't in the CFP, but they will get credit for the loss being early as we continue to go forward. CFP - late losses matter more than early. Right now, Dallas would get the edge as their loss was in the first game, whereas the Pats lost to the Seahawks late. Plus, the Pats struggle on SoS in the CFP evaluation system as they are basically winning the Big Sky.
 
tims4wins

tims4wins

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Rick Burlesons Yam Bag said:
You don't in the CFP, but they will get credit for the loss being early as we continue to go forward. CFP - late losses matter more than early. Right now, Dallas would get the edge as their loss was in the first game, whereas the Pats lost to the Seahawks late. Plus, the Pats struggle on SoS in the CFP evaluation system as they are basically winning the Big Sky.
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Pats SOS / SOV aren't much different than Dallas. Dallas is .420 / .398. Pats is .406 / .367. Neither has exactly played a run of juggernauts. By comparison Oakland is .500 / .467
 
Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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tims4wins said:
Pats SOS / SOV aren't much different than Dallas. Dallas is .420 / .398. Pats is .406 / .367. Neither has exactly played a run of juggernauts. By comparison Oakland is .500 / .467
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I was more referring to the Pats vs. Oakland and everyone else in that second statement. Sorry for the confusion. Dallas gets the top slot due to the better record and the timing of loss, and the Pats would have a tough time holding on to the 2 slot with a third loss as the season progresses even though they have style points and look better, due to the late loss (at home) and the SoS.
 
Gunfighter 09

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How would the team leading the best division in Football get the four seed behind two teams playing in abysmal divisions?

Pardon me while I go vomit since I just made the most "S-E-C" argument in history.
 
snowmanny

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"Pedigree."

I don't really disagree with ranking Oakland 2nd but if the division with the third best record is "abysmal" then you really are making an SEC argument.

Edit: The three best Raider wins are Broncos (8-4) Ravens (7-5) Bucs (7-5) and the Patriots
have Steelers (7-5) Dolphins (7-5) Bills/Texans (6-6)

Edit2: The real question is why Seattle over Kansas City?

Edit3: And don't get too hyped up about the "winning the best division in football" argument. San Diego is filler, and whoop-de-damn-do the Raiders are 1-1 with a negative point differential against the real iron.

Edit4: The Chiefs have a better record than the Seahawks; they have better wins, I think (Raiders, Broncos, Falcons vs Patriots, Dolphins, Falcons) and better losses (Texans, Steelers, Bucs vs Saints, Rams, Bucs + T-Cards).

I'd go:

Boys/Raiders/Pats/Chiefs

Edit5: FYI 538 ELO Rating is 1-NE 2-KC 3-SEA 4-DAL 5-DEN 6T-PIT/OAK So let's just go with that.
 
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dbn

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edit: had DAL over MIN game in the data set 2ce.

Latest "who-beat-whom" rankings has it: OAK..................DAL..............KC........................DEN...........NE.....ATL.....................SEA....NYG/TB...DET.....PIT, etc.:
Code: 
OAK 31.0   NO TEN BAL SD JAC TB DEN HOU CAR BUF  -- ATL KC 
DAL 29.2   WAS CHI SF CIN GB PHI CLE PIT BAL WAS MIN  -- NYG 
 KC 27.8   SD NYJ OAK NO IND JAC CAR DEN ATL  -- HOU PIT TB 
DEN 25.4   CAR IND CIN TB HOU SD NO JAC  -- ATL SD OAK KC 
 NE 24.3   ARI MIA HOU CLE CIN PIT BUF SF NYJ LA  -- BUF SEA 
ATL 23.8   OAK NO CAR DEN GB TB ARI  -- TB SEA SD PHI KC 
SEA 21.7   MIA SF NYJ ATL ARI BUF NE PHI CAR  -- LA NO TB ARI 
NYG 21.3   DAL NO BAL LA PHI CIN CHI CLE  -- WAS MIN GB PIT 
 TB 21.3   ATL CAR SF CHI KC SEA SD  -- ARI LA DEN OAK ATL 
DET 21.0   IND PHI LA WAS MIN JAC MIN NO  -- TEN GB CHI HOU 
PIT 20.5   WAS CIN KC NYJ CLE IND NYG  -- PHI MIA NE BAL DAL 
HOU 19.8   CHI KC TEN IND DET JAC  -- NE MIN DEN OAK SD GB 
WAS 19.6   NYG CLE BAL PHI CIN MIN GB  -- PIT DAL DET DAL ARI CIN 
 SD 18.2   JAC DEN ATL TEN HOU  -- KC IND NO OAK DEN MIA TB 
 GB 18.2   JAC DET NYG CHI PHI HOU  -- MIN DAL ATL IND TEN WAS 
MIN 18.1   TEN GB CAR NYG HOU ARI  -- PHI CHI DET WAS DET DAL 
BAL 17.8   BUF CLE JAC PIT CLE CIN MIA  -- OAK WAS NYG NYJ DAL 
IND 17.1   SD CHI TEN GB TEN NYJ  -- DET DEN JAC HOU KC PIT 
MIA 16.2   CLE PIT BUF NYJ SD LA SF  -- SEA NE CIN TEN BAL 
 NO 16.2   SD CAR SEA SF LA  -- OAK NYG ATL KC DEN CAR DET 
TEN 15.8   DET MIA CLE JAC GB CHI  -- MIN OAK HOU IND SD IND 
BUF 15.4   ARI NE LA SF CIN JAC  -- BAL NYJ MIA NE SEA OAK 
PHI 15.0   CLE CHI PIT MIN ATL  -- DET WAS DAL NYG SEA GB CIN 
CIN 13.5   NYJ MIA CLE PHI WAS  -- PIT DEN DAL NE WAS NYG BUF BAL 
ARI 13.4   TB SF NYJ SF WAS SEA  -- NE BUF LA SEA CAR MIN ATL 
CAR 13.0   SF ARI LA NO  -- DEN MIN ATL TB NO KC OAK SEA 
 LA 9.7   SEA TB ARI NYJ  -- SF BUF DET NYG CAR MIA NO NE 
CHI 8.0   DET MIN SF  -- HOU PHI DAL IND JAC GB TB NYG TEN 
JAC 7.8   IND CHI  -- GB SD BAL OAK TEN KC HOU DET BUF DEN 
NYJ 7.1   BUF BAL CLE  -- CIN KC SEA PIT ARI MIA LA NE IND 
 SF 1.5   LA  -- CAR SEA DAL ARI BUF TB NO ARI NE MIA CHI 
CLE 0.0    -- PHI BAL MIA WAS NE TEN CIN NYJ DAL BAL PIT NYG
 
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tims4wins

tims4wins

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14 games in, I would have it:
1) NE (12-2, +132 in points, #1 DVOA, 9-1 with TB12, similar SoS / SoV as Dallas)
2) Dal (12-2, +108, more recent loss than NE, hasn't looked quite as strong lately)
3) Oak (11-3, +41, recent loss, but very good SoS / SoV)
4) Sea (9-4-1, +63)

5) Atl (9-5, +111, pretty good schedule, they are VERY close to Seattle here but Seattle did win H2H, albeit in Seattle by 2)
6) KC (10-4, +45, very difficult schedule, but marked down for recent home losses)

3-6 is pretty tough. And the Steelers factor in somewhere here too, as they are 9-4 with Ben and have won 5 in a row
 
dbn

dbn

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tims4wins said:
14 games in, I would have it:
1) NE (12-2, +132 in points, #1 DVOA, 9-1 with TB12, similar SoS / SoV as Dallas)
2) Dal (12-2, +108, more recent loss than NE, hasn't looked quite as strong lately)
3) Oak (11-3, +41, recent loss, but very good SoS / SoV)
4) Sea (9-4-1, +63)

5) Atl (9-5, +111, pretty good schedule, they are VERY close to Seattle here but Seattle did win H2H, albeit in Seattle by 2)
6) KC (10-4, +45, very difficult schedule, but marked down for recent home losses)

3-6 is pretty tough. And the Steelers factor in somewhere here too, as they are 9-4 with Ben and have won 5 in a row
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Seattle has lost to LA, NO, TB, and GB, and tied AZ. Their good wins comprise NE and ATL. They are probably one of the best teams right now, but if the CFP-style selection criteria puts any weight on actual results, Seattle would be left out.

FWIW, who-beat-whom ratings:
Code: 
OAK 31.0   NO TEN BAL SD JAC TB DEN HOU CAR BUF SD  -- ATL KC KC
DAL 30.9   WAS CHI SF CIN GB PHI CLE PIT BAL WAS MIN TB  -- NYG NYG
 KC 28.6   SD NYJ OAK NO IND JAC CAR DEN ATL OAK  -- HOU PIT TB TEN
 NE 27.4   ARI MIA HOU CLE CIN PIT BUF SF NYJ LA BAL DEN  -- BUF SEA
NYG 26.6   DAL NO BAL LA PHI CIN CHI CLE DAL DET  -- WAS MIN GB PIT
PIT 24.4   WAS CIN KC NYJ CLE IND NYG BUF CIN  -- PHI MIA NE BAL DAL
DEN 23.3   CAR IND CIN TB HOU SD NO JAC  -- ATL SD OAK KC TEN NE
ATL 23.2   OAK NO CAR DEN GB TB ARI LA SF  -- TB SEA SD PHI KC
HOU 22.9   CHI KC TEN IND DET JAC IND JAC  -- NE MIN DEN OAK SD GB
DET 22.3   IND PHI LA WAS MIN JAC MIN NO CHI  -- TEN GB CHI HOU NYG
 GB 22.2   JAC DET NYG CHI PHI HOU SEA CHI  -- MIN DAL ATL IND TEN WAS
WAS 22.1   NYG CLE BAL PHI CIN MIN GB PHI  -- PIT DAL DET DAL ARI CIN
TEN 21.6   DET MIA CLE JAC GB CHI DEN KC  -- MIN OAK HOU IND SD IND
 TB 21.1   ATL CAR SF CHI KC SEA SD NO  -- ARI LA DEN OAK ATL DAL
SEA 20.6   MIA SF NYJ ATL ARI BUF NE PHI CAR LA  -- LA NO TB GB ARI
BAL 20.0   BUF CLE JAC PIT CLE CIN MIA PHI  -- OAK WAS NYG NYJ DAL NE
IND 19.6   SD CHI TEN GB TEN NYJ MIN  -- DET DEN JAC HOU KC PIT HOU
MIN 19.3   TEN GB CAR NYG HOU ARI JAC  -- PHI CHI DET WAS DET DAL IND
MIA 18.6   CLE PIT BUF NYJ SD LA SF ARI NYJ  -- SEA NE CIN TEN BAL
 SD 16.9   JAC DEN ATL TEN HOU  -- KC IND NO OAK DEN MIA TB CAR OAK
 NO 16.0   SD CAR SEA SF LA ARI  -- OAK NYG ATL KC DEN CAR DET TB
BUF 15.2   ARI NE LA SF CIN JAC CLE  -- BAL NYJ MIA NE SEA OAK PIT
CIN 14.9   NYJ MIA CLE PHI CLE WAS  -- PIT DEN DAL NE WAS NYG BUF BAL PIT
PHI 14.8   CLE CHI PIT MIN ATL  -- DET WAS DAL NYG SEA GB CIN WAS BAL
CAR 13.8   SF ARI LA NO SD  -- DEN MIN ATL TB NO KC OAK SEA
ARI 10.9   TB SF NYJ SF WAS SEA  -- NE BUF LA SEA CAR MIN ATL MIA NO
 LA 9.0   SEA TB ARI NYJ  -- SF BUF DET NYG CAR MIA NO NE ATL SEA
CHI 8.9   DET MIN SF  -- HOU PHI DAL IND JAC GB TB NYG TEN DET GB
JAC 8.0   IND CHI  -- GB SD BAL OAK TEN KC HOU DET BUF DEN MIN HOU
NYJ 7.7   BUF BAL CLE SF  -- CIN KC SEA PIT ARI MIA LA NE IND MIA
CLE 1.2    -- PHI BAL MIA WAS NE TEN CIN NYJ DAL BAL PIT NYG CIN BUF
 SF 0.0   LA  -- CAR SEA DAL ARI BUF TB NO ARI NE MIA CHI NYJ ATL
 
InstaFace

InstaFace

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Well at least NE has finally cracked into the top 4 in those rankings. And NYG rising to 5th is a nice way to scare the crap out of this forum. :) Seattle 15th doesn't really pass the smell test though.

Those rankings always jived a little better to my eyes when the rankings were a forced 1.0 points apart rather than a continuous function. Just too many possible convergent solutions when you let the relative values float like that.
 
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