NY minor league prospect news (2017 edition)

jon abbey

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Abreu's a little farther away, he didn't pitch much last year and he hasn't even been to high A yet. Domingo German is always ignored, but he might be ahead of all of those guys, and Dillon Tate isn't too far behind. That isn't even getting into Perez, Guzman...
 

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Gah, I was just about to come in here and post that. Ha.

Looks Abreu is wowing lots of scouts. I feel like this team has three or four Severinos down there.
 

jon abbey

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That is an insanely high bar (Severino was both the youngest and hardest throwing SP this year, maybe the 3rd best SP in the AL at 23) but at some point in the offseason I will try to do a list of all of the high ceiling arms at all levels, because it really is crazy.
 

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That is an insanely high bar (Severino was both the youngest and hardest throwing SP this year, maybe the 3rd best SP in the AL at 23) but at some point in the offseason I will try to do a list of all of the high ceiling arms at all levels, because it really is crazy.
Yeah, I know it is high and I am not saying those guys will get there, but it they have at least three or four Latin American right handed starters that throw extremely hard and have at least one other quality pitch.

It is like the Yankees have a factory that is just cracking these types of pitches out.
 

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jon abbey

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The Cubs were last year's next dynasty. A lot of their young stars regressed this year. And their pitching fell short of championship standards. Most experts felt Theo was building something with a deep foundation.
They never had any internal high-ceiling pitching really, it was all veteran studs and awesome young position players.
 

terrynever

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They never had any internal high-ceiling pitching really, it was all veteran studs and awesome young position players.
I liked how Sherman analyzed the Mets' regression today, saying the team was centered around its young pitching core. Pitching, he wrote, is so much more volatile than position players.
 

jon abbey

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I liked how Sherman analyzed the Mets' regression today, saying the team was centered around its young pitching core. Pitching, he wrote, is so much more volatile than position players.
This is what Theo said his philosophy was going to be with the Cubs and obviously it worked very well. Cashman is trying to do both and then spend big after 2018 if he still needs to, Severino/Montgomery/Green all put into place this year plus Kahnle (controlled through 2020) and guys like German and Heller on down who seem fully ready but haven't really gotten a chance yet.
 

jon abbey

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Back to Arizona after they had two days off this weekend, Sheffield gets his third start tonight.

Abreu and Florial both made BA's hot sheet today:

2. Albert Abreu, RHP, Yankees
Team: Scottsdale
Age: 22
Why He's Here: 0-0, 0.00, 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 SO.

The Scoop: Right now, it would be hard to find an Astros fan upset with the trade that brought Brian McCann to the American League champs. But the pair of pitchers the Astros gave up–Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman–are both premium pitching prospects. Abreu missed time this year with a sore elbow, but he's shown no ill effects in the AFL. He has a fastball he can run up into the upper 90s to go with a potentially plus breaking ball. (JJ)

7. Estevan Florial, OF , Yankees
Team: Scottsdale
Age: 19
Why He's Here: .357/.357/.643 (5-for-14), 2 2B, 1 3B, 2 RBIs, 0 BB, 7 SO, 0-for-1 SB.

The Scoop: Few players in the AFL (or anywhere in the minors) can match Florial on pure tools and athleticism. Yet the AFL is also an aggressive assignment for Florial, who is still 19 and spent most of the year playing in the low Class A South Atlantic League. Plate discipline still remains a focal point for Florial to improve—he hasn't drawn a walk and has already struck out 11 times in 27 plate appearances—but his power/speed combination makes him one of the most exciting players to watch in the league. (BB)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/arizona-fall-league-hot-sheet-oct-23
 

jon abbey

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The run he gave up was a solo HR to Victor Robles, who was on the Nats NLDS roster a couple of weeks ago and just got to Arizona in time to torment Sheffield and Abreu the last two days.
 

jon abbey

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McKinney is fascinating, a top 100 MLB prospect going into 2015 and 2016 who turned 23 in August and who showed some power in AAA last year (10 HRs in 209 ABs). I have him right now as 6th OF for NY, and he would move up to 5th if they get rid of Ellsbury somehow. He is also playing 1B some in Arizona to help NY's depth there, I think we'll see him at some point in the Bronx next season.
 

jon abbey

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Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com today:

"Will Albert Abreu join the Top 100 anytime soon?"

There's a good chance, yes.

OK, I'll elaborate. Abreu began the year, his first in the Yankees organization after coming over in the Brian McCann deal, as the Yankees' No. 11 prospect. He's now at No. 7, with an up arrow next to his name. Elbow and lat injuries caused him to notch just 53 1/3 innings during the regular season. He did strike out 10.3 per nine in that span and has the stuff to certainly be a Top 100 caliber prospect.

What he's doing thus far in the Arizona Fall League certainly won't hurt. He was just named the AFL Pitcher of the Week, and for good reason. He received the honor for his outing on Oct. 17, when he tossed five shutout innings and struck out eight. He followed that up with five more solid innings on Tuesday, and for the AFL season, the 22-year-old right-hander has now allowed two runs on nine hits and three walks over 15 innings. That's a .180 BAA and a 0.80 WHIP, and he's struck out 15, which puts him in a tie for third with organization-mate Justus Sheffield.
 

jon abbey

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In the fourth, he allowed a leadoff single, and the runner moved to third on two wild pitches with no one out still. Then Sheffield struck out the next three guys, all swinging, and stranded him.
 

jon abbey

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Also, Billy McKinney is leading the league in RBIs, 17 in just 9 games, after 4 more today from the leadoff spot.
 

jon abbey

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Two more perfect innings and another save for Cody Carroll tonight in Arizona, 9 2 0 0 4 14 now with 4 saves. He is climbing up the list of reliever options for NY, I'm guessing he'll start the year in Scranton.
 

jon abbey

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BigMike

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NY with 3 starters in today's All-Star game in Arizona, McKinney impressively hitting cleanup and Sheffield the SP, this is being televised on MLBN for those of us already going through baseball withdrawal:

  1. CF: Victor Robles (Nationals)
  2. DH: Corey Ray (Brewers)
  3. 3B: Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles)
  4. LF: Billy McKinney (Yankees)
  5. RF: Kyle Tucker(Astros)
  6. C: Tomas Nido (Mets)
  7. 1B: Matt Thaiss(Angels)
  8. 2B: Thairo Estrada(Yankees)
  9. SS: Luis Guillorme(Mets)
  10. SP: Justus Sheffield (Yankees)
What is frightening there is arguably the 2 best prospects they have in Arizona didn't even make the team. Although it seems Sheffield/Abreu is a tossup at this point
 

jon abbey

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Sheffield is ahead of Abreu, Sheffield is 21 and pitched in AA last year, Abreu is 22 and pitched in high A last year plus he missed most of the season with injuries.
 

jon abbey

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Although soon after I posted that, Dan Federico tweeted this:

==========================================

Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico
Was just told some
from a scout that's been studying Albert Abreu in the AFL #Yankees

"He's as aggressive as they come and shows no fear on the mound. He has excellent pitch ability and locates his 3 pitch mix (FB/CB/CH) (1/)

"All three are legit out pitches. He can throw any pitch on any count. Definite top of the rotation guy: pot #2 & possible lead dog" (2/)

"The Yankees can have a DOMINANT future starting staff of Severino, Abreu, Sheffield, Perez. I expect him in the Bronx at some point in '18"

==========================================

I think that's definitely too gung-ho about his timetable but he will be on the 40 man all season, so it is possible.
 

BigMike

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Sheffield is ahead of Abreu, Sheffield is 21 and pitched in AA last year, Abreu is 22 and pitched in high A last year plus he missed most of the season with injuries.
Fair enough, and Sheffield is a lefty. I guess I just think Abreu has a higher ceiling
 

jon abbey

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I'd like to see more from Abreu in full season ball before being too gung-ho on him in the near term, he was definitely highly touted when NY got him from HOU for McCann but most of his hype has come in the last few weeks in Arizona. It would be great if he turned out to be an impact player, though, especially since McCann really hurt NY in the last two games of the NLCS (I know this shouldn't really matter).
 

jon abbey

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More scouting reports via Dan Federico on Twitter about some of NY's guys playing in Arizona now:

Dan Federico‏ @RealDanFederico 19m19 minutes ago

Thairo Estrada: "Like the regular season, his consistency jumps out. Excellent contact hitter, rarely swings and misses. He's a team guy that plays hard no matter the score. Won't be a top SS in MLB but will be above average. Can play the hell out of 2B/SS. Top trade chip."

Cody Carroll: "Regular season his FB topped out at 98 MPH but has thrown it consistently at 100 in AFL. Power slider is inconsistent but shows potential. Some colleagues believe he's 7/8 inning man. You should see him with #Yankees in '18 since they love shuffling relievers."

Billy McKinney: "Picked up where he left off in AAA. Always hustles, jersey always dirty. Has RF arm but can play all three OF. Wants to make it with team which is why he moved to 1B. Can be a 20 HR guy in bigs. Instincts make speed a plus. Like Estrada, ultimately a trade chip."

Justus Sheffield: "Five colleagues told me he's a top of the rotation guy. Athletic. Excellent feel for pitching. True competitor. SL will be a nasty out pitch. Shown vast improvement with his FB command, his biggest weakness. Reminds me of Don Gullett. He has a veteran presence with great upside. He should be a factor for the Yankees this upcoming year. If he does well, I can see him up in May. Yankees aren’t trading him no matter what Off limits."

Estevan Florial: "He just began to scratch the surface last year. He's a young, athletic center with an exciting power/speed combo. I've seen enough flashes in every component of the game to get me excited for him. K's are a concern but not surprising at young age. Best prospect in Yankees system, bar none. Needs discipline but kills fastballs and mistakes. Ceiling is limitless. Plays hard, hustles and is team oriented. Potential 30/30 player. Great instinct and they will improve as he plays more. Big jump from Low-A to AFL but that's what they think of him. Will be in AA by the end of 2018, will be in Bronx by 19, starting CF by 2020. Like Sheffield, completely off limits."
 

Wingack

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Justus Sheffield: "Five colleagues told me he's a top of the rotation guy. Athletic. Excellent feel for pitching. True competitor. SL will be a nasty out pitch. Shown vast improvement with his FB command, his biggest weakness. Reminds me of Don Gullett. He has a veteran presence with great upside. He should be a factor for the Yankees this upcoming year. If he does well, I can see him up in May. Yankees aren’t trading him no matter what Off limits."
Everything out of the AFL has been so glowing about him. Him being "off limits" is huge.

Estevan Florial: "He just began to scratch the surface last year. He's a young, athletic center with an exciting power/speed combo. I've seen enough flashes in every component of the game to get me excited for him. K's are a concern but not surprising at young age. Best prospect in Yankees system, bar none. Needs discipline but kills fastballs and mistakes. Ceiling is limitless. Plays hard, hustles and is team oriented. Potential 30/30 player. Great instinct and they will improve as he plays more. Big jump from Low-A to AFL but that's what they think of him. Will be in AA by the end of 2018, will be in Bronx by 19, starting CF by 2020. Like Sheffield, completely off limits."
Up your game Gleyber, Florial is chasing you down.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I even queried Dan about that specifically ('better than Gleyber? really?') and he didn't back down.
 

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BP's Top 10 List for the Yankees is out. Lots to read here so have at it.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/34824/2018-prospects-new-york-yankees-top-10-prospects/

The State of the System: A year after being deadline sellers, the Yankees thinned out their farm with graduations and a pair of July 31st buys. The system is down a little, but has an elite 1-2 punch at the top and a bonanza of high-upside teenagers further down the organizational totem pole.


The Top Ten:

  1. Gleyber Torres, IF
  2. Estevan Florial, OF
  3. Chance Adams, RHP
  4. Justus Sheffield, LHP
  5. Albert Abreu, RHP
  6. Miguel Andujar, 3B
  7. Domingo Acevedo, RHP
  8. Domingo German, RHP
  9. Matt Sauer, RHP
  10. Luis Medina, RHP
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I wasn't too impressed by that list, the top 6 or 7 will be the same for everyone (albeit in a different order), but Medina specifically came out of nowhere (in terms of prospect rankings), an 18 year old kid who has barely pitched in the US so far, and NY's system is too deep IMO for someone like Sauer who was just drafted to make the top 10, both of those guys are way too high IMO. Jorge Guzman not even making the top 20 seems like a major oversight (as all of the first comments there were quick to mention, heh).

FWIW (probably not much), here is my own current top 16 list. I put more value on guys being closer to ready than others seem to:

Gleyber Torres
Estevan Florial
Justus Sheffield
Chance Adams
Miguel Andujar
Domingo Acevedo
Albert Abreu
Dillon Tate
Domingo German
Thairo Estrada
Nick Solak
Freicer Perez
Jorge Guzman
Billy McKinney
Ben Heller
Jake Cave
 

jon abbey

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Also how can they possibly leave Greg Bird off their "Top 10 Talents Under 25" list for NY? Obviously he's had injury issues, but he just OPSd .921 in 14 postseason games. I'm pretty sure that should put him 4th on the list after Judge/Sanchez/Severino, ahead of a lot of very talented but mostly unproven guys. That's just a dumb decision, they explain it there but they're just wrong IMO.
 

jon abbey

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Check out how closely Hal Steinbrenner is following the farm, love that he mentions Andujar and German here (two guys who have a ton of talent but who have had trouble getting a chance on the big league level so far):

"One of the possibilities in my mind somewhere in the infield is Andujar; he had a really good August in [Triple-A] Scranton offensively, and even defensively, [he was] much improved," Steinbrenner said. "And we're going to have Chance Adams at some point, I hope. Domingo German is doing well.

"Arizona Fall League is wrapping up, Justus Sheffield did well, so did Albert Abreu, so we'll see. We've got guys at Double-A that are going to move quickly to Triple-A, we've got guys at Triple-A that may need a month or two and they'll be ready."

http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/262023358/yankees-hal-steinbrenner-excited-for-prospects/
 

jon abbey

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This is from BP's top 20 NY prospect list a few weeks ago, this makes it easier to see why Cashman protected a guy who has mostly just pitched in rookie league so far over younger guys who have succeeded at higher levels (Loaisiga just turned 23):

"Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, short-season Staten Island
Loaisiga’s professional career certainly could have started better. The Giants signed him in 2013 out of Nicaragua but eventually released him in 2015 due to injury problems. After signing with the Yankees in February 2016, he didn’t pitch until this season due to Tommy John surgery. He is now a 22-year-old low minors pitcher listed at 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds in a deep system. Nonetheless, he features a potentially plus fastball-curveball combination with the ability to throw either pitch for strikes in any count. The fastball consistently hovers around 95 mph (t97) with late movement and should hit the upper 90s more frequently as he continues to get stronger. His curveball flashes plus with hard, tight break and at times can be difficult to distinguish from a slider. His changeup is the clear third pitch yet flashes average with decent fade. Loaisiga’s injury history and height scream reliever, but his arsenal could succeed in a big-league rotation and he repeats his delivery well. With hopefully significantly more innings pitched in 2018, he realistically could at least be in the Next Ten section of next year’s list. —Erich Rothmann"

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/34824/2018-prospects-new-york-yankees-top-10-prospects/
 

jon abbey

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Jim Callis ranks the top 25 prospects from the Arizona league and NY has 5 guys in there:

Florial (8)
Sheffield (9)
Abreu (10)
Estrada (15)
Carroll (23)

What's interesting is that the guy at #11 behind the three straight Yankees was safely in their overall top 100 last year at #76, so one would think that would mean Abreu should be there in the rerankings in January, so NY should probably have six guys there again (the top three above plus Torres, Adams and Ansujar, all of whom are already in) with Acevedo probably at #7 on the NY list.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262309998/top-25-prospects-from-2017-arizona-fall-league/?topicid=151437456
 

jon abbey

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RAB has numbers for Yankee minor leaguers playing in the Dominican Winter League, Miguel Andujar, Tyler Austin and Mike Ford have all been awful:

  • 3B Miguel Andujar: 16 G, 9-57 (.158), 6 R, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP (.158/.226/.158) — tough winter ball showing, but it’s okay, I still like him
  • 1B Tyler Austin: 7 G, 4-25 (.160), 2 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 12 K (.160/.250/.360) — he hasn’t played in three weeks now … not sure if he went home or if he’s been benched … these leagues are super competitive, so if you don’t perform, you’re not going to play
  • 1B Mike Ford: 11 G, 6-38 (.158), 6 R, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K, 1 HBP (.158/.273/.211) — he hasn’t played in three weeks either … not a good winter ball season for Yankees first base prospects in the Dominican Republic
http://riveraveblues.com/2017/12/dotf-andujar-continues-to-struggle-in-winter-ball-163789/
 

jon abbey

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BA's top 10 is out (top link below), and it's another list with Luis Medina, who wasn't really on my radar with all of the other high-ceiling pitching prospects. The top six is the same as everyone else's top six will be, albeit in slightly different orders, but I thought this was interesting from the Q and A going on right now (lower link):

"Brian Cashman (NY): Level with me - do I have a top 3 system? Or even a case for #1?

Josh Norris: Hello there, Baseball America's MLB Exec of the Year. Yes, I think the Yankees do have a case for a Top 3 system and possibly a case for No. 1. Even if it doesn't reach that height, it is probably the deepest system in the game. There are some names who got left off of the 30 who would make the list in other orgs."

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-new-york-yankees-top-10-prospects/#oQ93bCPIVGFz7GUx.97

https://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1512325513
 

jon abbey

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I do think that the depth of high-ceiling pitching prospects throughout the system is still not fully appreciated by everyone, including some of these talent evaluators. Norris does say:

"Undoubtedly, the Yankees' system's biggest strength in its pitching. That's particularly true when it comes to hard-throwing righthanders. Six of their Top 10 are pitchers, and five of those are power righthanders. Four of those five touched 100 mph or better. And they're all behind Justus Sheffield, who touched 98 mph from the left side in the Arizona Fall League."

And besides those six, they also have German, Tate, Perez, Sauer, Schmidt, and the list goes on.
 

jon abbey

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JJ Cooper‏Verified account @jjcoop36

RHP Jorge Guzman ranks 7th on the Yankees Top 10 Prospect list. He has a strong argument that he's the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in baseball, sits at 98-99 mph.

==================

His average FB was the highest in the minors last year, and ahead of Severino for I believe the highest on any level. Not sure how he'd compare to a healthy Syndergaard or how Kopech slots in there, but still pretty cool. This is one of the two arms they got from HOU for McCann, the other is Albert Abreu who will be on most top 100 lists this winter.
 

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It really is amazing that Cashman was able to get that type of talent back in a pure salary dump deal