Mookie Betts appreciation thread

teddywingman

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The little things he does right... last night caught in an inevitable rundown-- because of where and how the ball was hit-- but he made it last long enough that Hanley could get to second base.
 

Al Zarilla

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Mookie caught (tied) Mike Trout in fWAR after the results were in for Sunday’s games. Two hits, a walk, two stolen bases and a five star catch all contributed to raising his fWAR. He doesn’t always have games like that, but he is capable of all those good things at any time, not to mention home runs. Mookie went ahead in fWAR 3.1 to 3.0 with the results of last night’s games.
 

grimshaw

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In thousands of fantasy leagues Mookie Betts was paid $40 of fake money. He's probably worth $60+ at his current rate.

Here is what he is on pace for this season:
fWAR - 11.5
Hits - 210
Doubles - 60
Home runs - 49
Total Bases - 425
Steals - 41
Runs - 161
RBI - 104
All while having an 11% k-rate.

For shits and giggles, repeat shits and giggles -
The 425 total bases would be the 7th highest single season total - tied with Sammy Sosa in 2001.
The 161 runs scored would be the highest total since Lou Gehrig in 1936 when he had 167.
The 11.5 fWAR is a shade under Ted Williams best season. He had an 11.8 in 1946. Barry Bonds was somehow a win better in 2002.

And here is the buzzkill ZIPS projection.

Hits - 197
Doubles - 50
Home runs - 34
Total Bases - 350
Steals - 31
Runs - 133
RBI - 103
 
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EllisTheRimMan

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In thousands of fantasy leagues Mookie Betts was paid $40 of fake money. He's probably worth $60+ at his current rate.

Here is what he is on pace for this season:
fWAR - 11.5
Hits - 210
Doubles - 60
Home runs - 49
Total Bases - 425
Steals - 41
Runs - 161
RBI - 104
All while having an 11% k-rate.

For shits and giggles, repeat shits and giggles -
The 425 total bases would be the 7th highest single season total - tied with Sammy Sosa in 2001.
The 161 runs scored would be the highest total since Lou Gehrig in 1936 when he had 167.
The 11.5 fWAR is a shade under Ted Williams best season. He had an 11.8 in 1946. Barry Bonds was somehow a win better in 2002.

And here is the buzzkill ZIPS projection.

Hits - 197
Doubles - 50
Home runs - 34
Total Bases - 350
Steals - 31
Runs - 133
RBI - 103
Some historic perspective on Mookie’s Run Scored pace for 2018.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/R_season.shtml

If you look at the pictures of the top 30 you’ll see none are in color unless you consider deteriorating photo yellow a color.

Bagwell breaks into the elite in 2000. Before that there was no Tee Vee.
 

grimshaw

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Rovin Romine

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Some historic perspective on Mookie’s Run Scored pace for 2018.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/R_season.shtml

If you look at the pictures of the top 30 you’ll see none are in color unless you consider deteriorating photo yellow a color.

Bagwell breaks into the elite in 2000. Before that there was no Tee Vee.
There are a handful of recent 140+ seasons, but the last 150 season before Bagwell's 2000, seems to be Ted Williams in 1949.

You know what surprised me about the list - Ichiro never lead the league in Runs Scored (or OBP).

Also, not a lot of classic lead-off hitters on the list. (Rickey Henderson did lead the league 5 times though.)
 

BaseballJones

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I want to delve a little more into Betts vs Trout, 2018. Not talking about past seasons. Just this one.

This article by ESPN (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23520017/los-angeles-angels-mike-trout-pace-greatest-season-mlb-history) gives the impression that Trout is having the greatest season ever.

Right now, Trout has the edge in bWAR (3.5 vs 3.1), though fWAR has them reversed (2.8 for Trout, 3.2 for Betts). I just want to focus on bWAR right now.

Here are their respective lines:

Trout: 195 PA, 155 AB, 34 R, 8 2b, 2 3b, 12 HR, 25 RBI, 8 SB, .290/.431/.600/1.031, 182 ops+
Betts: 178 PA, 154 AB, 46 R, 16 2b, 1 3b, 13 HR, 28 RBI, 11 SB, .364/.438/.734/1.172, 205 ops+

Baserunning:

Trout: 8 SB, 0 CS, 5 bases taken, 1 out on bases = 12 net bases taken
Betts: 11 SB, 2 CS, 6 bases taken, 2 out on bases = 13 net bases taken

So Betts is crushing Trout at the plate. And he even has a slight edge in base running. How in the hell does Trout have a 3.5 to 3.1 edge in bWAR? The only explanation is defense. B-ref has Trout at 0.8 dWAR and Betts at 0.1 dWAR, which explains the difference in total bWAR. But is this fair to Betts?

Trout gets credit for being a CF but Betts is a phenomenal centerfielder who just happens to be playing RF next to another phenomenal CF in Bradley. Betts has been unbelievable (again) this year defensively. Is it really even semi-accurate to credit Trout with that much of a defensive advantage over Betts? And how is the offensive difference only slightly in Betts' favor? He's really crushing Trout offensively. Is it because, again, Trout plays CF and even his OFFENSE gets extra credit because Trout is a CF?

I just don't really get how Trout has an overall edge in bWAR when Betts is doing what he's doing.
 

drbretto

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Does Trout get a bonus just for being CF? Is that a factor? Not jsut because of Bradley stealing his chances, but because RFs tend to be better hitters than CFs?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Does Trout get a bonus just for being CF? Is that a factor? Not jsut because of Bradley stealing his chances, but because RFs tend to be better hitters than CFs?
Yes. There's a positional adjustment in WAR calculations. For b-ref WAR, the adjustment difference between CF (+2) and RF (-7.5) for 150 games played is 9.5 runs, nearly a full win. That factor is pro-rated based on playing time (calculated by plate appearances), so it's still a relatively small factor at this point in the season, but still a factor.
 

Rovin Romine

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I've always been hazy on the philosophy behind WAR's defensive component, given that so much is reliant on team construction.

I mean, assuming Mookie and JBJ are swapped in RF and CF, and they each field exactly the same as the other does, in terms of outcomes, should their overall WAR values each change drastically? Apparently so.
 

teddywingman

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I seem to remember last year that JBJ's defensive numbers were hurt by the fact that Mookie and Benintendi were catching a lot of balls that were inside his zone. Am I remembering that correctly?
 

Pitt the Elder

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For what it's worth, per Baseball Savant, Betts and Trout are tied in outs above average (tied for 4th in MLB at 4 each). Betts is14th with catch percentage added at 6% while trout is 27th at 4%.
 

BaseballJones

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I seem to remember last year that JBJ's defensive numbers were hurt by the fact that Mookie and Benintendi were catching a lot of balls that were inside his zone. Am I remembering that correctly?
I don't know. But it would be really interesting to consider that the Sox could have three premier defensive outfielders, but because they all cover each other, it looks like - by the metrics - that each one is just fairly average. That would be kind of silly.
 

Spelunker

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There are a handful of recent 140+ seasons, but the last 150 season before Bagwell's 2000, seems to be Ted Williams in 1949.

You know what surprised me about the list - Ichiro never lead the league in Runs Scored (or OBP).


Also, not a lot of classic lead-off hitters on the list. (Rickey Henderson did lead the league 5 times though.)
Eh, he didn't walk very much. He was close one year (2nd by a few points) but that was the only year he ever broke .400. Quickly glancing, he was only top-10 twice in the aughts.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Eh, he didn't walk very much. He was close one year (2nd by a few points) but that was the only year he ever broke .400. Quickly glancing, he was only top-10 twice in the aughts.
He also played half his games in Safeco. You'd think he'd have lead the league in runs scored at least once. He did finish 2nd his rookie year and in the top 10 7 times.
 

bankshot1

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I want to delve a little more into Betts vs Trout, 2018. Not talking about past seasons. Just this one.

This article by ESPN (http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23520017/los-angeles-angels-mike-trout-pace-greatest-season-mlb-history) gives the impression that Trout is having the greatest season ever.

Right now, Trout has the edge in bWAR (3.5 vs 3.1), though fWAR has them reversed (2.8 for Trout, 3.2 for Betts). I just want to focus on bWAR right now.

Here are their respective lines:

Trout: 195 PA, 155 AB, 34 R, 8 2b, 2 3b, 12 HR, 25 RBI, 8 SB, .290/.431/.600/1.031, 182 ops+
Betts: 178 PA, 154 AB, 46 R, 16 2b, 1 3b, 13 HR, 28 RBI, 11 SB, .364/.438/.734/1.172, 205 ops+

Baserunning:

Trout: 8 SB, 0 CS, 5 bases taken, 1 out on bases = 12 net bases taken
Betts: 11 SB, 2 CS, 6 bases taken, 2 out on bases = 13 net bases taken

So Betts is crushing Trout at the plate. And he even has a slight edge in base running. How in the hell does Trout have a 3.5 to 3.1 edge in bWAR? The only explanation is defense. B-ref has Trout at 0.8 dWAR and Betts at 0.1 dWAR, which explains the difference in total bWAR. But is this fair to Betts?

Trout gets credit for being a CF but Betts is a phenomenal centerfielder who just happens to be playing RF next to another phenomenal CF in Bradley. Betts has been unbelievable (again) this year defensively. Is it really even semi-accurate to credit Trout with that much of a defensive advantage over Betts? And how is the offensive difference only slightly in Betts' favor? He's really crushing Trout offensively. Is it because, again, Trout plays CF and even his OFFENSE gets extra credit because Trout is a CF?

I just don't really get how Trout has an overall edge in bWAR when Betts is doing what he's doing.
I asked the same question in the game thread last night

Is there an easy explanation why Trouts WAR is so much higher than Betts, when for all I & Ps Betts has better stats, (counting and averages) and I don't buy that Trout is that much better a CF than Betts is a RF. Or is there a CF bias? Or am I missing something obvious and I'm just a dolt?

Be kind.
 

grimshaw

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He didn't drive himself in very much either. Even in the years he hit 15 and 13 home runs, his .obp was around .350.
 

Al Zarilla

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I asked the same question in the game thread last night
Mookie's fWAR is higher that Trout's this morning. In fact, it goes

1. Betts 3.2
2. Jose Ramirez 3.1
3. Trout 2.8
4. Lindor 2.8

Mookie's defensive component is considerably lower than the last couple years (??), his offensive is considerably higher (Duh) and base running is about the same, I think, having jumped due to his increasing SBs lately. There is no standardization in WAR! We need a VHS vs. Betamax type decision!
 

LesterFan

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fWAR update:

1. Betts 3.5
2, Ramirez 3.0
3. Trout 3.0
4. Lindor 2.6
5. Machado 2.6

wRC+

1. Betts 215
2. Machado 187
3. Trout 181
4. JDM 179
5. Bryant 173

Mookie is still blowing everybody away.
 

timlinin8th

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Yes. There's a positional adjustment in WAR calculations. For b-ref WAR, the adjustment difference between CF (+2) and RF (-7.5) for 150 games played is 9.5 runs, nearly a full win. That factor is pro-rated based on playing time (calculated by plate appearances), so it's still a relatively small factor at this point in the season, but still a factor.
A one size fits all adjustment hardly seems fair to guys that play in parks with unusual dimensions (such as a massive RF in Fenway, or the other end of the spectrum, a tiny RF in the Toilet). What is it in fWAR that is different in how they calculate the defense that has Mookie above Trout?
 

Rasputin

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You know what surprised me about the list - Ichiro never lead the league in Runs Scored (or OBP).
Sammy Sosa has three of the top spots on the single-season homer list and didn't lead the league in any of them.

Look at the doubles leaderboard. Only two color pictures in the top 12 and all those black and white guys were in the 20s and 30s and I've always wondered what factors led to that kind of domination of a leaderboard. Were players reacting to Ruth by swinging for the fences more? Did new ballparks have closer fences?

The doubles record is 67 by Earl Webb, a fact I will never forget because I always looked it up when Papi was hitting a ton of them. How the fuck could you even hit 67 doubles today?
 

Reverend

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A one size fits all adjustment hardly seems fair to guys that play in parks with unusual dimensions (such as a massive RF in Fenway, or the other end of the spectrum, a tiny RF in the Toilet). What is it in fWAR that is different in how they calculate the defense that has Mookie above Trout?
Playing next to JBJ? ;)
 

BaseballJones

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Betts now leading the majors (not just the AL) in:

Runs (48)
Doubles (18)
Homers (15)
AVG (.368)
OBP (.439)
SLG (.767)
OPS (1.205)

His "on pace for" numbers:

R - 169
2b - 63
HR - 53
SB - 39

I mean, this is insane. I don't care what bWAR says. If the numbers stayed like this for both him and Trout, there's no way Mookie doesn't win the MVP. You don't lead the league in all those categories, plus play gold glove defense, and not win the MVP, regardless of what bWAR says.
 

DJnVa

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Take a look at his on pace for total bases--the single season record is 457--by Babe Ruth in 1921.

At current rate, if you pro-rate out to 600 ABs, Betts clocks in at 460.
 

Al Zarilla

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Betts now leading the majors (not just the AL) in:

Runs (48)
Doubles (18)
Homers (15)
AVG (.368)
OBP (.439)
SLG (.767)
OPS (1.205)

His "on pace for" numbers:

R - 169
2b - 63
HR - 53
SB - 39

I mean, this is insane. I don't care what bWAR says. If the numbers stayed like this for both him and Trout, there's no way Mookie doesn't win the MVP. You don't lead the league in all those categories, plus play gold glove defense, and not win the MVP, regardless of what bWAR says.
Trout isn’t even hitting .300 right now. I know BA isn’t a component in WAR, but a lot of the writers, especially the older ones will still look at it when voting for MVP. Mookie’s hitting more than 70 points higher than Trout right now for heaven’s sake. And, all the other stats you point out. Also, Mookie’s defensive component has been around double that of Trout’s the last 3 years. Right now it’s 1/3. Don’t know what’s going on there.

I think I’ll “worry” about who wins the MVP in October, or November. For now, stay hot Mookie!
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Look at the doubles leaderboard. Only two color pictures in the top 12 and all those black and white guys were in the 20s and 30s and I've always wondered what factors led to that kind of domination of a leaderboard. Were players reacting to Ruth by swinging for the fences more? Did new ballparks have closer fences?
There might be something there. Four of the ten guys with B&W photos -- Chuck Klein, Joe Medwick, George Burns and Tris Speaker -- played in parks (Baker Bowl, Sportsman's Park, and League Park) with one thing in common: an extreme asymmetrical shape that resulted in a ginormous LCF power alley and an ultra-short RF with a very high fence. It's easy to imagine those parks as doubles factories. And in fact, the Indians (League Park), Cardinals (Sportsman's Park) and Browns (ditto) rank 1, 2 and 4 among the 16 MLB teams in doubles for 1920-39.

Of the remaining six, four were Tigers, and three of those came in the same year, 1936 -- which oddly happens to be the year after they brought the fences in (especially in RF) at Tiger Stadium. However, it was still a long way to CF and LCF.

The doubles record is 67 by Earl Webb, a fact I will never forget because I always looked it up when Papi was hitting a ton of them. How the fuck could you even hit 67 doubles today?
Mookie is on a pace for 63. Just sayin'.
 

DJnVa

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The doubles record is 67 by Earl Webb, a fact I will never forget because I always looked it up when Papi was hitting a ton of them. How the fuck could you even hit 67 doubles today?
More surprising is how Mark Grudzielanek hit 54 of them in 1997. Carpenter got to 55 a few seasons back.
 

bluefenderstrat

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Regardless of where the totals end, we may very well be witnessing the greatest all-around season a Red Sox player has ever had--certainly in the discussion with Yaz's legendary 67. (Sure, Tris Speaker was probably up there, and Ted was the greatest hitter ever, but for all around play, Mookie's first two months are unparalleled.)
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Oh yeah, one more thing: barring the unthinkable, Mookie will almost certainly finish this season with over 30 rWAR (or bWAR or brWAR or whatever the hell we're supposed to call the WAR over at that bright red site). He will join a list of 31 guys with 30 or more rWAR through age 25. Twenty-three of the 31 are in the HoF. Of the remaining eight, four are active or not yet Hall-eligible: Trout, A-Rod, Pujols, and Manny Machado(!). The other four are Cesar Cedeno, Vada Pinson, Andruw Jones, and Sherry Magee -- all, coincidentally, at least semi-interesting comps for Mookie. (Magee may look like a poor comp on the power side, but remember this was the dead-ball era -- Magee was actually the top HR hitter for the 1905-1914 decade, making him perhaps too good a power comp for Mookie).
 

brandonchristensen

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Betts now leading the majors (not just the AL) in:

Runs (48)
Doubles (18)
Homers (15)
AVG (.368)
OBP (.439)
SLG (.767)
OPS (1.205)

His "on pace for" numbers:

R - 169
2b - 63
HR - 53
SB - 39

I mean, this is insane. I don't care what bWAR says. If the numbers stayed like this for both him and Trout, there's no way Mookie doesn't win the MVP. You don't lead the league in all those categories, plus play gold glove defense, and not win the MVP, regardless of what bWAR says.
He's tied for the league lead in Hits and Doubles, too.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Mookie Betts has played against 9 opponents this season. He has an OPS of 1.000 or higher against seven of them. Two of those teams, he has an OPS over 2.000.

He also has an OPS of 1.000 or higher in every count except for 0-0 and 1-1.

None on, runners on, runners in scoring position, bases loaded, leading off an inning, runners in scoring position with two ours... again over 1.000 in every one of those categories.

Sadly, 111 of his 163 ABs come with no runners on, a halfway decent year from JBJ/Vaz/Nunez, and Mookie probably has many more RBI, and is vying for the triple crown.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Maybe not this year but Mookie might approach the first ever 50/50 season. 40/40 definitely on the table this year, if not likely.
Currently on a 52 HR, 38 SB pace, but with 8 of his 11 SB coming in May, so the pace might pick up a bit. 50/50 would be insane, as he'd have to keep up his current HR pace all season long. Maybe it's doable, but he's been so ridiculously hot this year - it's hard to imagine anyone keeping this pace up. I've never seen anyone this hot, this long.

Oh, and just for fun, he's also on pace for 65 doubles. The all-time record is held by Earl Webb, with 67.
 

StupendousMan

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Regardless of where the totals end, we may very well be witnessing the greatest all-around season a Red Sox player has ever had--certainly in the discussion with Yaz's legendary 67. (Sure, Tris Speaker was probably up there, and Ted was the greatest hitter ever, but for all around play, Mookie's first two months are unparalleled.)
Hmmm. One might be able to make a case for Babe Ruth's last season with the Sox, in 1919. His hitting line was .322/.456/.657, with an OPS+ of 217, and his pitching performance, while quite a step down from earlier years, was respectable: 133 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.97, ERA+ 102, WHIP 1.545. This year marked his shift from being one of the better pitchers in the league to its best hitter by far.
 

bosockboy

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Currently on a 52 HR, 38 SB pace, but with 8 of his 11 SB coming in May, so the pace might pick up a bit. 50/50 would be insane, as he'd have to keep up his current HR pace all season long. Maybe it's doable, but he's been so ridiculously hot this year - it's hard to imagine anyone keeping this pace up. I've never seen anyone this hot, this long.

Oh, and just for fun, he's also on pace for 65 doubles. The all-time record is held by Earl Webb, with 67.
His biggest problem reaching 50/50 is that he gets so many extra base hits, he doesn’t get as many steal opportunities.
 

phenweigh

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Mookie Betts has played against 9 opponents this season. He has an OPS of 1.000 or higher against seven of them. Two of those teams, he has an OPS over 2.000.

He also has an OPS of 1.000 or higher in every count except for 0-0 and 1-1.

None on, runners on, runners in scoring position, bases loaded, leading off an inning, runners in scoring position with two ours... again over 1.000 in every one of those categories.

Sadly, 111 of his 163 ABs come with no runners on, a halfway decent year from JBJ/Vaz/Nunez, and Mookie probably has many more RBI, and is vying for the triple crown.
Speaking of The triple crown, I'd offer that leading the league in average, home runs, and runs scored is a triple crown of sorts.
 

nvalvo

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I'm rooting hard for 162 runs scored. There's something magical about those seasons, like Manny's 1999, when he had 165 RBI in 147 games.
 

EricFeczko

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Mookie is on pace to do (more things) that Trout has never done.

For example, his 215 wRC+ would be tied with Teddy for 13th since 1871, with only Rogers Hornsby, Barry Bonds, Teddy, Mickey Mantle having better seasons. His isolated power (ISO=SLG-BA=.399) would rank 12th, with only Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, Sammy Sosa, and Babe Ruth having better power seasons.

Hmmm. One might be able to make a case for Babe Ruth's last season with the Sox, in 1919. His hitting line was .322/.456/.657, with an OPS+ of 217, and his pitching performance, while quite a step down from earlier years, was respectable: 133 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.97, ERA+ 102, WHIP 1.545. This year marked his shift from being one of the better pitchers in the league to its best hitter by far.
Overall, probably -- though its hard to compare a two-way player. Offensively, Mookie is blowing that line out of the water.

Regardless of where the totals end, we may very well be witnessing the greatest all-around season a Red Sox player has ever had--certainly in the discussion with Yaz's legendary 67. (Sure, Tris Speaker was probably up there, and Ted was the greatest hitter ever, but for all around play, Mookie's first two months are unparalleled.)
Teddy in 1941 his .406/.553/.735 with a 221 wRC+. He walked almost a quarter of the time and struck out less than 5 percent of the time.

Even Teddy's 1957 line was .388/.526/.731 with a 223 wRC+. He walked ~21 percent of the time (rounding down); twice as much as mookie; and struck out 8 percent of the time (rounding up), which is less than mookie.

It's hard to judge how much difference the defense makes -- but these lines blow Mookie's out of the water nearly as much as Mookie blows out Babe Ruth's 1919 offense; excluding the power and slugging, where mookie has been unique.
 

grimshaw

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Since 2002, Fangraphs has tracked wRC+ splits.

The only seasons where players have managed to crack 200 in the first half:
Bonds - 234 in 2002
Bonds - 233 in 2004
Betts (215 so far)
Bryce Harper - 211 in 2015
Miggy - 207 in 2013
Manny - 200 in 2009 as a Dodger

A-Rod, Pujols, and Papi never did it. Trout was on pace last year before he got hurt but only played 47 games. Judge was 197 last year.

None of the above were anywhere near his impact as a defender either. It's also ridiculous that he has been this good in the coldest weather months in one of the coldest mlb cities.
 

SumnerH

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Mookie is the best 25-and-under player I've seen on the Red Sox in my life. I'm 36 and the closest career at this point is Nomar's -- after that it's a big drop to Pedey's.
Yeah, before that I go back to a young Clemens at that age.

Boggs was as exciting, but he was older by the time he entered the league and was partially (only partially, but somewhat) a product of the fetishization of batting average at the time.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, before that I go back to a young Clemens at that age.

Boggs was as exciting, but he was older by the time he entered the league and was partially (only partially, but somewhat) a product of the fetishization of batting average at the time.
He was brought up older because he was punished for not having any power. What do you mean by product of fetishization because he was definitely not rewarded for being a high average guy.
 

BaseballJones

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A few 25-year and younger guys for the Sox that were amazing...

Rice (25): .315/.370/.600/.970, 157 ops+, 46 hr, 406 total bases, won MVP (finished top 5 three years in a row)

Lynn (23): .331/.401/.566/.967, 162 ops+, won MVP

Nomar (25): .357/.418/.603/1.022, 153 ops+, 7th in MVP

Clemens (23): 24-4, 2.48 era, 169 era+, 0.97 whip, 8.4 k/9

Williams (22): .406/.553/.735/1.287, 235 ops+, 2nd in MVP (incredibly)

Greenwell (24): .325/.416/.531/.946, 160 ops+, 2nd in MVP

Boggs (25): .361/.444/.486/.931, 150 ops+, 12th in MVP

Speaker (24): .383/.464/.567/1.031, 189 ops+, won MVP

Ruth (23): .300/.411/.555/.966, 192 ops+, oh and also: 13-7, 2.22 era, 1.05 whip

Betts right now (25): .364/.440/.763/1.203, 214 ops+