2018 Yankees Offseason Discussion

I'm extremely interested in Cashman's strategy for the next 3 years. This offseason has the best crop of players, so strategically this is the perfect time to spend. Boston's also capped out so a big rival isn't present in the market, and the marquee players are players who play in positions that other potential rivals don't need. For example, the Dodgers don't need Machado because Seager is coming back.

However, a big need is pitching and the FA crop here is of lesser quality. I wonder whether Cashman will spend big on Corbin, get Eovaldi to beef up the rotation and spend prospects in a big trade. That would be a GFIN move, but since the Yankees have their best players locked up for the next 4-6 years, I think it would be an extremely good move. I wonder what it would take to get Syndergaard and/or Snell.

The conservative move is to spend money and keep prospects, but this is the Yankees we're talking about. Opening up a 4-6 year window where the Yankees are a lock to win 100-110 games/year would make it really likely that they win at least 1 title.

I would cash out prospects for Snell and Syndergaard. Yes, the prospects chips would be spent and the farm system would probably end up as a lower third system, but those 2 are cost-controlled long enough that it would not be mortgaging the future for a year or two. The window would be open for longer and dovetails nicely with their other best players’ (Judge, Torres, Sanchez, Severino) cost-controlled years.

The problem is that the Yankees farm is almost entirely at the A and AA levels at this point except for Florial, Estrada, and Sheffield. To deal for a Snell or Syndergaard (the two hardest types of teams to trade with, cross-town and division rivals), they'd have to empty the top of the farm + possibly Andujar.

The Mets and Rays just wouldn't have any incentive to deal with the Yankees either because teams would be lining up for those guys. Even the Astros still have some top-heavy talent to deal from and arguably have just as big of a rotation problem as the Yankees do.

TLDR - Cleveland is a much likelier partner than the Mets or Rays. I don't buy the argument that Cleveland wouldn't want to deal with NYY. They play them 6 times a year and possibly play them in the playoffs. Moving 1 pitcher to the Yankees who they'd see maybe twice a year shouldn't be a huge issue.

Edit: And if I were the Yankees, I wouldn't overpay for Snell and Syndergaard, or even DeGrom, when there are other pitchers available who would cost less.

Based on the prospect cost alone (not pitcher value), I would rank in this order

DeGrom
Syndergaard
Snell
Kluber
Carrasco
Paxton

I'm struggling to figure out where I would slot Bumgarner but my guess is above Paxton

Frazier’s still available to be traded. He had a great year at AAA. I think the Yankees could definitely build the most competitive offer for one or two top of the line pitchers.

Don’t agree with going after Kluber as his window is too short. His velocity is trending down as well.

Wouldn’t go after DeGrom as well as he’s over 30 and he has only 2 years left on his contract.

Ideally you want someone with 4 years of control. It would take an overpay for sure but hey, this is the Yankees we’re talking about.

jon abbey said:

I think the first three of those are essentially off the table and Carrasco scares me because BOS has destroyed him in recent seasons, Paxton seems like the best fit or maybe someone we haven't heard about yet.

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Not disagreeing but that was in-response to the idea that we should go all-in on Snell or Synd. I just don't think those are feasible options no matter what but especially when we could go after other available top pitchers

The Rays look close enough to their next window that they just aren't trading Snell for anything, correct?

^Yea any Snell trade would have to include Gleybar. I dont think he is going anywhere

Michael Kay: “Yankees are in, in a serious way on Machado".

He then spent the rest of his show talking about how Machado is a good clubhouse guy, will produce on the field, etc. it’s like Cashman gave him a script to read.

This is happening.

SemperFidelisSox said:

Michael Kay: “Yankees are in, in a serious way on Machado".

He then spent the rest of his show talking about how Machado is a good clubhouse guy, will produce on the field, etc. it’s like Cashman gave him a script to read.

This is happening.

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that's not the script, that's the consensus. Machado has, by all accounts, been beloved by his teammates. That doesn't make him less of a shithead on the field though.

Regarding Kay, he's not one to break news. I'd make an assumption that he's basing this off of all the same reports we've read and nothing more.

"#Yankees would love to make a splash for Corey Kluber, but they have been unwilling to include Miguel Andujar & Estevan Florial in talks w/ #Indians, so they’re not close, according to source."

I'd guess this is posturing by NY and that we would ultimately give Andujar or Florial in a trade for Kluber.

jon abbey said:

Florial seems like a strange fit in a potential Kluber deal, no way will he be ready to help this year and not too likely in 2020 either.

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He's a potential top prospect, I could see why any other team would value him. There were also recent reports that Cashman is valuing Florial as an untouchable.

Edit: I can't find the links to the Florial comments.

jon abbey said:

CLE’s window is now, and they need outfield help now.

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Including Florial and helping their outfield aren't mutually exclusive. The "report" says Andujar & Florial, not or.

Wingack said:

How seriously are we supposed to take this Wildstein character? Like on a scale of 1 to Olney.

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1. He writes for something called Gotham Sports Network and is a senior at Emerson.

Wingack said:

How seriously are we supposed to take this Wildstein character? Like on a scale of 1 to Olney.

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1? But rumors make me excited

RedOctober3829 said:

1. He writes for something called Gotham Sports Network and is a senior at Emerson.

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And he used the possessive “we” when talking about the Yankees! Kind of a dead giveaway. He’s a fan.

Wingack said:

How seriously are we supposed to take this Wildstein character? Like on a scale of 1 to Olney.

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Olney gets scoops? That’s the high bar?

Sorry, I started the Max Wildstein stuff. I got it from NYYfans.

Brian Cashman said that the #Yankees have internally discussed long-term deals for arbitration eligible players like Dellin Betances, Didi Gregorius & Aaron Hicks. "Have we kicked it around in a very small scale way in the offices? Like, it's now or never? Yeah, we have."

I could easily see NY deciding to add pitching this offseason, plus a reasonably good and flexible bat (Lowrie? Gonzalez?) and then using its money to lock some of these guys up long term. They've got negotiating leverage with their in-house players that they lack with Machado and Harper. They might decide a 100-win team doesn't need to take on a 12 year deal at a top of the market rate.

Frankly, I think those two guys are getting a over-hyped. They're excellent players, and available at unusually young ages, but are they actually "generational" players? Machado plays solid-to-good defense at a premium position (SS) and excellent D at 3rd. He's got power. He's durable. But he's not a great base runner, not a great contact hitter. He's not the best SS or 3B in the game. Overall, he's been good not great the past two years (a 3 WAR level player). Is he a top 10 player?

Harper has similar pros and cons. Otherworldy in 2015. But since? Very good shortened season in 2017 sandwiched between two rather pedestrian years. Solid base runner. Mediocre fielder at non-premium positions (and bad in CF). Career OPS+ of 139 is excellent. Is he a top 10 player overall?

He's clearly worth a huge deal, but 7 years into his career, he's not the hitter that Pujols and Cabrera were at his age or when they got their huge deals. And both of those deals looked iffy when signed and terrible half way through.

I can see a big market team that's been down and is trying to reemerge, that has a low payroll, taking the plunge. Philly. CWS. But if either of these guys gets a 12 year, $360M+ deal, there's going to be buyer's remorse. If I'm NY, I'd rather sign the above average guys like Didi and maybe see if Judge would go for a Trout-like, six-year/$150M deal.

If they are going to resign Hicks, Didi and Betances and have either long term deals or arb awards for Severino (Arb 2), Judge and Sanchez (Arb 1) starting in 2020 this then there is only so much they can commit to right now on a long term basis and not trip the draft pick/uber penalty tax starting in 2020. Probably enough cushion for Machado but it gets interesting beyond that.

Edit: Thank you Ellsbury.

Better be a damn good prospect considering Scooter has had WAR of 2.4 and 4.2 the last two seasons (admittedly the 4.2 might be skewed due to a one time defensive improvement).

Yeah Gennett was a top 5 2B last year. They're not trading him for Sonny Gray and a throw in prospect.

Wingack said:

How seriously are we supposed to take this Wildstein character? Like on a scale of 1 to Olney.

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Well, he's older than Jake Wesley

RIrooter09 said:

Yeah Gennett was a top 5 2B last year. They're not trading him for Sonny Gray and a throw in prospect.

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Well it is the Reds and they've already made one sweetheart deal with Cashman.

jon abbey said:

Lot of interest in Gray on the trade market (he had amazing numbers away from NY), and a market flooded with FA second basemen and a 2B who CIN likely would prefer not to pay this year if possible. Anyway, we'll see, we're not the ones who have to be convinced.

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I know you’re working from reports and not originating the rumor of Cincy’s interest, but it baffles me what a team that finished 28.5 games back in their division would want with one year of Sonny Gray. If they do happen to be going for it in 2019, I’m not sure Scooter’s production is that easy to replace — the only FA second basemen I’m seeing on the market are Dozier, Harrison and LeMahieu (I’m not sure Daniel Murphy is a second baseman anymore).

Again, my bemusement has more to do with their FO than your post because there’s clearly something there.

Honestly if Gennett is available, they can do a lot better than trading him for Sonny Gray. I would be interested to see what the "interest" in Sonny Gray really amounts to. I could see "sure, we will take him for some single A flyers" but not for a guy that starts on their major league roster. Sonny's last actual good season was in 2015. He is 29 and been bad for awhile now. And isn't Senzel a 3b that they have just been getting reps at 2b? From what I am reading he can stick at 3b, why move him off the more valuable position so you can trade your all star 2b for a pitcher that used to be good in the pitcher friendly Coliseum, when you play in one of the most HR friendly ballparks in the game? It seems like wishcasting to me.

edit: dont pay attention to the Reds that much, forgot all about Suarez. So yea, can see why they would want to move him to 2b. Gennett for Gray still doesnt make sense to me, I just cant see you guys getting much more than some low A pitchers that Cashman likes for him

How can you pass on a guy named Jeter Downs?

NYCSox said:

How can you pass on a guy named Jeter Downs?

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The legacy of Jeets continues. He was actually named after Jeter.

jon abbey said:

With the addition of Paxton, I think NY still needs to add one SP, two relievers, and two infielders (Andujar is a DH in my book) this winter. I am rooting for Corbin (although he is going to be decidedly overpaid), Miller and Robertson or Ottavino (one righty/one lefty), and Machado as FAs, plus Gennett in exchange for Gray and something. That would leave NY with this powerhouse (on paper):

Hicks CF
Judge RF
Machado 3B
Stanton LF
Andujar DH
Gennett 2B
Sanchez C
Torres SS
Voit 1B

Severino, Corbin, Paxton, Tanaka, CC
German, Tarpley, Holder, Green, Miller, Robertson/Ottavino, Betances, Chapman

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Posted in the other thread but I think Cashman could use Frazier to avoid signing a bullpen arm. Trade him for a top setup man or closer and save payroll and risk on Robertson or Britton.

Edit: to further that thought, if Cashman can flip Gray and Frazier for a bullpen arm and an infielder, that would be perfect.

That aside, I would be totally fine bringing Happ back and not getting Corbin. I'd also be very happy getting Corbin.

To be honest, I really wish we just never signed CC and got Happ instead, regardless.