Ping Pong Luck: If not the Celtics...

Marbleheader

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2004
11,726
I think running a bunch of sims helps shed some light on the new lottery odds. Yes it's meaningless, but there's 8+ hours to kill.
 

doc

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
4,475
I am seeing Memphis at 2-4 way too often for my liking
Isn't that what we want so the Memphis pick conveys to 2020 where it is only top 6 protected, and then 2021 where it is unprotected?
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,055
Hingham, MA
Isn't that what we want so the Memphis pick conveys to 2020 where it is only top 6 protected, and then 2021 where it is unprotected?
No because 2-4 helps them a hell of a lot more than 8.

Edit: but I'd rather have Memphis get a top 4 pick than convey 9 to the Celts, I think
 

BlackJack

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 11, 2007
3,456
The Celtics' worst case scenario is Sacramento's pick going #1 and 3 of Dallas, Minnesota, Lakes, Charlotte, and Miami all hitting on the 2-4 slots.

That would mean the C's get #12, 20, 22, and 24.

Obviously the best scenario is #2, 20, 22 with Memphis hitting on the #4 pick to roll over to next year.

Looking solely at the Memphis pick - at what point would you rather see it convey this year as opposed to them getting one of the top 4 picks? Just if they hit on #1? Or does the #2 pick worry you enough that they might climb out of the lottery next year?
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
21,754
Pittsburgh, PA
Can someone give me a quick breakdown on where the picks need to fall for the Celtics to get them?
First recall that the only picks subject to lottery are picks 1-4. The teams that jump to 1-4 are picked via weighted odds, and then picks 5-14 are filled in based on the pre-lottery order of everybody who didn't get a pick 1-4.

SAC's pick sits at #14. It will only move if it gets picked for one of the picks 1-4, otherwise it conveys to us at #14. Its odds of moving are actually averaged between the odds of 12/13/14, so the odds of a top-4 pick are 4.8%. If, however, it lands at #1 (1.0% chance), it goes to Philly and we get Philly's pick (#24) instead. That's considered a doomsday scenario given Philly's current strength.

MEM's pick sits at #8. It conveys to us at #9-14, meaning that if any team behind them in the pre-lottery order gets their balls tickled and jumps to #1-4, then it will bump back to #9 (or #10) and the only way it doesn't convey at that point is if MEM's pick itself jumps up to a top-4 pick. Overall, the chances are 57.4% that it doesn't convey (i.e. that it remains top-8). Most people here don't want it to convey, they would rather it remain a top-8 pick, because its value then as a trade asset or in its eventual conveyance in 2020 (top-6 protected) or 2021 (unprotected) is viewed as higher than picking at 9 or 10 this year.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
21,754
Pittsburgh, PA
Looking solely at the Memphis pick - at what point would you rather see it convey this year as opposed to them getting one of the top 4 picks? Just if they hit on #1? Or does the #2 pick worry you enough that they might climb out of the lottery next year?
Personally I would rather get #9 than Memphis get #1 (6.0% chance), but without getting Zion, I think the team sucks just as hard next year.

Let's remember, the year before Lebron arrived, the Cavaliers won 17 games. Their first 3 years with him, they won 35 (Picked #10), 42 (would have picked #13 but for trading it away), and 50 (#4 seed, lost EC Semis to Pistons in 7). If you think Zion is the best prospect since Lebron, that's the kind of impact he can have right away. Almost nobody has that level of impact, though, so I'd be willing to roll with a #2-4 pick for Memphis and see what happens. The pick still has a lot of tradeability just on the high variance outcomes.
 

BlackJack

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 11, 2007
3,456
Personally I would rather get #9 than Memphis get #1 (6.0% chance), but without getting Zion, I think the team sucks just as hard next year.
Yeah I think that's where I'm at too given the Zion and everyone else assessment that this draft seems to have.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,996
Agree with this. Need teams with an established 5s to win the Zion lottery (so they don't turn him into AD) so Wolves and Suns fit. Cavs also because they are in a complete rebuild.

Along w/ Memphis, NYK, Lakers I'd add Dallas as a worse case because I think they would turn Zion into AD.
This wins the prize for Most On-Brand Post.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Personally I would rather get #9 than Memphis get #1 (6.0% chance), but without getting Zion, I think the team sucks just as hard next year.
Zion will be a great player, but even if he led the Grizz to 35 wins they’re going to be a lottery team next year. And I’d rather have a late lottery pick in the ‘20 pool than the ‘19 one.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,996
Zion will be a great player, but even if he led the Grizz to 35 wins they’re going to be a lottery team next year. And I’d rather have a late lottery pick in the ‘20 pool than the ‘19 one.
Yeah, even generational players just don’t move the needle right away, unless it’s a Duncan to the Spurs situation.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
90,015
Oregon
Why wouldn't the Knicks trade Zion for Davis? Especially if they think/know they would be getting Kyrie and Duirant
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,403
around the way
Zion will be a great player, but even if he led the Grizz to 35 wins they’re going to be a lottery team next year. And I’d rather have a late lottery pick in the ‘20 pool than the ‘19 one.
#9 this year vs. #9 next year has to factor in that we don't have to wait a year for the guy too. I'm assuming that you did, so next year is that much better to overcome that? Or is it more about the Celtics roster?
 
Last edited:

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,713
Why wouldn't the Knicks trade Zion for Davis? Especially if they think/know they would be getting Kyrie and Duirant
If it’s 1 for 1, that’s different from the Zion plus a few more assets deals that people have been talking about. I love AD, but even those three superstars would need a supporting cast.
 

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,608
Why wouldn't the Knicks trade Zion for Davis? Especially if they think/know they would be getting Kyrie and Duirant
Presumably because KD/Kyrie/AD wins you a title if you put them together. Zion may be an elite prospect but he's not ready to be the first, second or third option on a title team next year. It's choosing the present over the long-term future of the franchise, a very Knicks thing to do.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,088
If it’s 1 for 1, that’s different from the Zion plus a few more assets deals that people have been talking about. I love AD, but even those three superstars would need a supporting cast.
How could anyone possibly top a Zion deal? It would be Zion and salary filler, IMO. And then you use Knox and the Mavs picks to get some quality vet supporting cast upgrades.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
#9 this year vs. #9 next year has to factor in the that we don't have to wait a year for the guy too. I'm assuming that you did, so next year is that much better to overcome that? Or is it more about the Celtics roster?
I’m one of the few fans of this draft, but even I’ll admit that what it’s rich in is roleplayer talent. There are a couple of real wildcard guys, like Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Junior Porter, but Boston would get a shot at them whether or not they get #9.

Guys that could be mid-lottery picks next year with equal or greater upside are the French players, Theo Maledon and Killian Hayes, plus Khalil Whitney, Precious Achiuwa, and Sam Williamson.
 
Last edited:

Lazy vs Crazy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
6,410
I've convinced myself that the 76ers are getting the #1 pick but I'm still going to flip out when it happens.

1 in 100, but the way our season has gone it feels inevitable.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,403
around the way
Silver is shepherding a league that's already on top of its game. They won't rig anything. Stern doing so, like five years past the abyss of little to no network TV coverage, was a calculated risk (if that even happened, of course). No need to do that now.

If the NBA wanted a resurgence of Knicks/Lakers basketball, he'd do something about their shitty ownership groups.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
21,754
Pittsburgh, PA
Silver is shepherding a league that's already on top of its game. They won't rig anything. Stern doing so, like five years past the abyss of little to no network TV coverage, was a calculated risk (if that even happened, of course). No need to do that now.

If the NBA wanted a resurgence of Knicks/Lakers basketball, he'd do something about their shitty ownership groups.
Your rational evaluation of key figures' motivations and decision frameworks is a lot less fun than paranoid conspiracy-theorizing.

(I've always kinda wondered why David Stern in particular was such a lightning rod for conspiracy theorizing, though - not just that draft but the Jordan career hiatus, rigging Lakers-Kings Game 6, etc)
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
I wonder what Dallas would do with the second pick.

If Zion is #1, Ja absolutely has to be #2, and it would be a waste to have him and Doncic on the same team.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,996
Your rational evaluation of key figures' motivations and decision frameworks is a lot less fun than paranoid conspiracy-theorizing.

(I've always kinda wondered why David Stern in particular was such a lightning rod for conspiracy theorizing, though - not just that draft but the Jordan career hiatus, rigging Lakers-Kings Game 6, etc)
He gave off the vibe (probably deserved) that he would do anything and everything to make the league succeed. I'd be shocked if he didn't pull shady shit during his tenure, but agree with jimbo that it's no longer necessary now that the league is wildly successful.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,205
He gave off the vibe (probably deserved) that he would do anything and everything to make the league succeed. I'd be shocked if he didn't pull shady shit during his tenure, but agree with jimbo that it's no longer necessary now that the league is wildly successful.
I would also add that the Donaghy scandal occurred on his watch - I wouldn't lay the blame at Sterns feet for that but in most organizations, a person in his position would be dismissed for a similar type of incident. Add to that the fact that Scott Foster was able to remain employed by the league - again had Foster worked in corporate America, I argue he would have been gone simply because of optics - and there is some of the fuel for the Stern conspiracies.

I am with Jimbodandy. I am sure the league has some preferences for how this all shakes out but they also realize that a dispersion of talent across teams and parity is good for the sport long-term. Adam Silver is a really sharp person and the best at running a professional sports league imho. I don't think frozen ping pong balls are a thing under his stewardship.
 

jmm57

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
1,485
I appreciate that. The coverage in unwatchable. Patrick Ewing talking followed by Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars interviewing Steph/Klay. Brutal.

Edit- I had it on NBA TV instead of actual coverage....doh o_O
 
Last edited:

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Why wouldn't the Knicks trade Zion for Davis? Especially if they think/know they would be getting Kyrie and Duirant
They probably would, but theres a risk that AD or KD is unhappy and leaves after year 1, or Kyrie does the same after year 2. So there’s a rational argument that they should sign a bunch of JAGs to one-year deals to roll over their cap space, let Zion put up 20 and 10 on a shitty team next season, then pair him with two max guys from the 2020 class and whatever they can get for their 2020 lottery pick.
 

ZMart100

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2008
3,188
Re-posting some relevant joint probabilities.

Probability of PHI getting #1 pick and MEM conveying 0.81% (worst case)
Probability of Celtics getting #2 pick and MEM not conveying is 0.21%
Probability of Celtics getting #2, 3 or 4 and MEM not conveying is 0.71%
Probability of Celtics getting #2 pick and MEM getting #4 is 0.08% (best case)