Like, signing Montgomery or Snell probably makes us feel better about our chances, right? But does it really make the team significantly better? I dunno. There’s this weird dichotomy where we want the team to spend more…but spending on free agents isn’t really terribly efficient, usually.
Depending on your goals, sometimes you have to do the less efficient thing, especially when the cost of the efficiency is only money.
If I have to make dinner and feed my kids after work, the most cost effective thing is to have gone to the grocery store ahead of time and have something in the pantry to make, but if I get home and realize we forgot to go to the store and we're missing some things, then we can just call for take out. It's less efficient but it does address the immediate problem.
In our case the Sox have stated that they expect to contend, but have not managed to put together a pitching pipeline from the farm, so they need to get take out. The problem is that instead of doing that they're instead running down to that sketchy bodega that isn't well stocked and just grabbing the last box of mac 'n cheese and telling us they've got dinner for four covered.
What's the point of signing Giolito?
The team has access to multiple people who have more savvy in (and actual experience of) analyzing/developing ML pitching than, like, you. Or me. Or anyone else on this board. So, the most obvious infrence to draw is that the team believes they have a good chance to turn him around. A chance to the point where "gambling" at 2/$38.5M makes a lot of sense to them.
We'll see if they're right or wrong about that.
This is a pretty naked appeal to authority, and you're relying on the authority of the same group of people who thought Corey Kluber was a good idea.
I'm optimistic on Giolito, but by himself he's not nearly enough. Each year when the Sox take a short term flyer on a couple FA pitchers, and we spin a narrative about why this is a great signing and we squint and see untapped potential, or something the Sox can fix. Their track record on these signings are not exactly great. But as you say, we'll wait and see.