With normal health-luck and a trade or two, this core can contend this year.
But as to 2025, I agree with your points. Yoshida does not really fit, unless he's 2023 May-August Yoshida. But with the non-surgical third-opinion re: his hand, I'm not holding my breath at this point. I don't think he'll be easy to move though. Instead of eating the whole contract, they should invest in a dedicated hitting-coach or something to get him going.
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The "big bat" issue is kind of an illusion. We have them right now.
By OPS+:
Refsnyder 176
O'Neill 166
Wong 155
Devers 144
Abreu 143
(Casas 137)
We also have a bunch of solid above-average hitters, one of which can contribute offensively via speed.
McGuire 108
(Yoshida 106)
Duran 104
And then we have the ballast:
Romy 69
Rafaela 64
Hamilton 60
Reyes 28 (60 at bats)
Valdez 25 (90 at bats)
Dalbec 8 (53 at bats)
Cooper/Smith/Grissom are all under 50, but only have around 30 ABs each. Collectively, that's not great though.
I'm not arguing that the current hot hitters are
sustainable. But Duran, Rafaela, Grissom, and somebody ought to be able to rise as Refsnyder and Wong trail off.
What I am arguing is that overall offensive production also depends on not giving away too many useless ABs to scrubs/replacements. They should be reserved for breaking in long-term players who have a future with the club.
To compare with the Yanks, they have only 2 guys (Soto/Judge) at 137 or above. We have 5 (or 6). But they have only 280 at bats for guys with a 87 OPS+ or less. We have around 560 or so (by very rough count.)
Getting a Soto type would always make a difference, but maybe it's just a "San Diego difference" if we've also got an offensive black hole or two elsewhere in the lineup.
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As for the rotation, I think what you have above is thin. I'd like to be a Criswell believer, but I need a bit more. So maybe it's a Winckowski, or a FA, or Fitts or someone as the #5. Murphy should be back at some point as well.
For RP we seem to have a number of guys who are actually delivering in the minors, as opposed to guys with tools (Ort) who we'd call up hoping they'd put things together in the majors. So I'm not very concerned there.