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  1. cannonball 1729

    Blake Snell to the Giants

    Certainly, everyone has their own level of risk aversion, so I can't say what's "right." But to clarify, the downside risk for Snell (assuming that's what we're seeing here) is that he gets an additional $62 million from the Giants and the chance to go up for free agency again in two years...
  2. cannonball 1729

    Blake Snell to the Giants

    Not sure I follow. A top-of-the-market player like Snell who is just reaching FA for the first time has already earned about $50 million. (In fact, Snell has, to date, earned just over $51 million.) He already has life-changing money - now's his chance to go after generational wealth.
  3. cannonball 1729

    Do You Want John Henry To Sell The Red Sox?

    It doesn't look like they were wrong, either. Eovaldi's elbow blew up in April, David Price had a cyst in his wrist in early August, and Sale's exploded in mid-August. Which I think gives a broader answer to this question: At the time DD was fired, the Sox had three pitchers with large...
  4. cannonball 1729

    Lucas Giolito has an elbow issue.

    Jeff Passan is a heck of a writer, but he knows nothing about how to read a scientific study. Like when he tweeted a link to a study, saying: to which the author of the study he was citing said:
  5. cannonball 1729

    The Frailty of the Modern Pitcher

    It could, but I think pitchers from the stretch generally just do an abridged version of their windup mechanics. For example, here's Mark Prior from the stretch: The problem for him is that regardless of situation, when he breaks his hands, his elbows go up, and once you're there, you're...
  6. cannonball 1729

    The Frailty of the Modern Pitcher

    Good question, and I'm not entirely sure. I think I read somewhere that hitters are mostly focused on a box over the pitcher's shoulder and probably wouldn't see it - I may have read that in discussions on this board about whether the curveball that Josh Beckett threw with a lifted finger in...
  7. cannonball 1729

    The Frailty of the Modern Pitcher

    My understanding is that L's and W's are both bad because they lead to a timing flaw - namely that the pitcher's torso starts to rotate forward while the arm is still moving up and back. Just copy a couple of Chris O'Leary pictures, an inverted W like this: leads to a situation like this...
  8. cannonball 1729

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    I don't get it - why would Henry's budget parameters not be tied to CBT numbers? That means that if Breslow signs a couple of big contracts with some backload like Bello or a potential Casas deal, he'll have to be like $40 million under the cap or so for CBT purposes in 2029. Unless there's a...
  9. cannonball 1729

    A’s have signed a binding agreement to purchase land for a future ballpark in Las Vegas.

    Maybe AI thinks that by 2028, Gelof won't have any power? Relatedly...
  10. cannonball 1729

    Offseason rumors

    I don't think that's right. The Heat's big 3 all took slightly less than the max so that the team could fit them and still compete.
  11. cannonball 1729

    Offseason rumors

    LeBron/Wade/Bosh? Kyrie/Durant? It seems to happen a bunch in basketball. (Note: I don't think baseball and basketball are analogous in that regard because the salary structures are so different.)
  12. cannonball 1729

    Offseason rumors

    I think this is a strong possibility. If nothing else, it seems that they've at least made a highly competitive offer and think they have a strong chance of landing him once he stops messing around. Meh - I think there are options between "I will only root for an ethical owner" Pollyannaism...
  13. cannonball 1729

    If the RS sign Montgomery are you satisfied with the off-season?

    FWIW, I was actually curious about the whole xFIP thing with Montgomery (the "thing" being that he's outperformed his peripherals the last three years). I looked through his stats to see if there was something that stood out in his batted ball stuff that indicated why he might have...
  14. cannonball 1729

    What if you could change one thing - Red Sox edition

    Or Charles Dolan? Apparently he actually outbid John Henry group but was denied because of reasons. The Red Sox could have been the Knicks North!
  15. cannonball 1729

    How's Boras Doing This Off-Season?

    Here's the article. It's a bit of a time capsule to 2015, when the new draft slots had come in and teams were figuring out what to do with that. I can't say my guess about the future was correct, but I'll leave it up for posterity. (The article is also draft-centric but hopefully still...
  16. cannonball 1729

    How's Boras Doing This Off-Season?

    It's tricky to evaluate, because there's no counterfactual of what the players would have gotten had he not done his agenting. But there are quite a few things that Boras seems to do extremely well, like... ....actually, I wrote an article about exactly this for the old SoSH.com. That site...
  17. cannonball 1729

    How's Boras Doing This Off-Season?

    Also Denny McLain, Bob Gibson, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Glavine, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, and Corey Kluber.
  18. cannonball 1729

    When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

    Yeah - I was going to say something similar to these. So far, he's had one full season where he was roughly a 2 WAR player. The fact that it was at age-23 is super-encouraging - as was the fact that he improved as the season went on - but 2 WAR basically puts him in the middle of the league...
  19. cannonball 1729

    Is It Over Now? Chiefs/Niners SB Thread

    Usher had the number one hit in 2004, so....2040 or so?