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  1. effectivelywild

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    One thing that is interesting (at least to me)----their sub .500 predictions for teams have a fairly reasonable trend line (although I'm only talking about ~10 teams with one huge positive and negative outlier)---but once you get beyond that the numbers just explode all over the place. But if...
  2. effectivelywild

    Brayan Bello signed to a 6 year, $55 million extension

    Absolutely. Deals like this are (IMO) almost always the result of a lot of discussion and negotiation and I suspect something would have happened regardless. But both sides were likely motivated to find common ground (Boston for the PR, Bello for the security after being reminded of the injury...
  3. effectivelywild

    Brayan Bello signed to a 6 year, $55 million extension

    I assume that the extension was long in the works, but when I saw that the news of the Bello extension relatively closely followed news about Giolito's injury, I thought that at the minimum seeing a fellow pitcher (with no real history of injury) go down with an elbow problem had to at least...
  4. effectivelywild

    Offseason rumors

    Maybe if they designate her as "The Official Dermatologist of the Boston Red Sox"
  5. effectivelywild

    Offseason rumors

    A 6 man rotation can make sense if it a. allows your starters to go deeper into outings and b. If there isn't a big change in skill level between the top of your rotation and the bottom (because otherwise you are taking starts away from your top guys). My main concern is with "a." I don't know...
  6. effectivelywild

    Offseason rumors

    Here is a relevant quote from The Athletic explaining the situation: "The Dodgers can’t actually hold on to all the deferred money for 10 years, though. They’ll have to start putting a lot of money aside for Ohtani no later than 2026. 'Deferred compensation obligations … must be fully funded by...
  7. effectivelywild

    Sox in on Giolito?

    I realize that this is probably a function of you posting at about the same time as JM3 but its very difficult to square your evaluation with his somewhat more detailed take. I think at the end of the day, there's no real evidence that Giolito's stuff IS still good. If you take a look at his...
  8. effectivelywild

    What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

    I think you are significantly devaluing Bello in today's market. According to Baseball Reference, his listed weight is 195 pounds. 195 troy pounds of gold (troy pounds are apparently slightly different than regular pounds, because why not have multiple different units of measurement with the...
  9. effectivelywild

    Offseason rumors

    What if we offer them Trevor Bauer? Bauer could room with Deshaun Watson while he looks for a place.
  10. effectivelywild

    What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

    This is something that I've seen referenced more in recent months---the penalty for a hitter seeing the same reliever in a series. It figured semi-prominently in Fangraphs writeup of Dusty Baker in the ALCS. While obviously a deeper bullpen is a nice thing to have, I think it is also something...
  11. effectivelywild

    Nadir

    Side note: for the games I didn't watch, I would avoid checking ESPN and instead read the SOSH game threads to re-create the game.
  12. effectivelywild

    Nadir

    Game 7 2003---senior at Boston University, completely on the bandwagon. Had a big watch party at my place with my friends and roommates' friends. Many of roommates' friends were Yankee fans. As they go wild cheering as Boone's ball flies into the air, I get mad, start offering each of them 20...
  13. effectivelywild

    2023 Starting Rotation

    Maybe he has a new baby at home? Or maybe that only affects catchers. Where's Eric Van when you need him?
  14. effectivelywild

    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    I think one of the big reasons why there was a decent amount of clamor for the Sox to splurge on a FA SS was that our options were otherwise pretty grim---I *think* I was able to pull up the combined lines for every PA by a SS so far this season and their triple slash lines have been...
  15. effectivelywild

    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    "Why can't we get guys like that?"
  16. effectivelywild

    When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

    One thing that stood out to me (and was mentioned in the article) is that for teammate Justin Turner, the thing he focuses on is "timing." I thought it was really interesting that for Casas, timing was third on his list of importance when it comes to hitting, but that he didn't seem to be...
  17. effectivelywild

    Noah's Arc: Song back, assigned to GVL.

    I think the idea that is being floated is that the Phillies could trade the Sox something in exchange for "full rights" to Song, which I believe is allowed. Basically, the Phillies would have to arrange a transaction with the Sox in which they would get back full rights to him, which means they...
  18. effectivelywild

    Cora: Pivetta is going to the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever

    Untrue. I can think of three things I could do at least as well as your average MLB player: 1. Swinging strike (as batter) 2. Called strike (as batter) 3. Balk
  19. effectivelywild

    When Is It Okay To Worry About Triston Casas: An Attempt at the Reverse Jinx

    So, SSS caveats and all, that is a swing rate of 4/15 (26.7%) on full counts, yes? That seems pretty low, which likely plays into any impression that he is "looking to walk". I tried (and failed) to find the league overall swing rate in a full count---I did find out in this article that in...
  20. effectivelywild

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    You also have to wait for awhile before you can trade a guy that you signed in the offseason. I think the earliest you can do it is....sometime in June?
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