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  1. NobodyInteresting

    HOF Class of 2024

    If you were a watching the NFL for the first time in the UK in the 1980s the only two players you can name now from that era are Joe Montana and William "the fridge" Perry. Dan Marino if you were really paying attention. It wouldn't be at all crazy to meet someone in this country for whom the...
  2. NobodyInteresting

    That was then: Celebrating what was

    The Colts appear to have played a suspiciously large number of games during their 5 year period...
  3. NobodyInteresting

    2023 Dolphins: Greatest Show on Surf

    Both Tua and Miami offense finished 2nd in DVOA (behind Purdy/SF). I've watched every game they've played this year and that doesn't feel unreasonable to me.
  4. NobodyInteresting

    The next OC?

    Their methodology is beyond flawed...it's pure nonsense. You can safely ignore that article. The ESPN one is much more reasonable. You can quibble about aspects, but they've actually tried to measure draft value and they've done it in a reasonable way. And I don't think their results are...
  5. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    Which is why I quoted DVOA, which factors opponents in (though doesn't make any adjustments for injuries/QB changes). And if anything the Pats have underperformed their DVOA ratings over this period. Again, it's just one data point, but it doesn't support your thesis that their results have...
  6. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    DVOAs by year - DVOA adjusts for opposition strength 2020 17th -2.7% 2021 8th +16.0% 2022 16th -1.2% 2023 27th -15.8% By this metric your "not that bad of a year" in 2021 was almost exactly the positive equivalent of 2023 (Did we just have a "not that good" year?). They were good in 2021 -...
  7. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    Jake Bailey absolutely was not a flop. In fact, part of the problem was that he was too *good* in his first couple of years because by making the Pro Bowl he got a significant bump in pay, taking him from being a cheap rookie to one of the higher paid punters (the formula really fucks teams who...
  8. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    Honestly, this is a crazy way to make decisions. Bill has a good draft, including a promising QB and another player or two, the team looks much improved, they go 9-8 with significant reasons to be hopeful going forward.....and you're firing him because he didn't make the playoffs? It's insanity...
  9. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    But I don't know that, at the time Bill did have other options that would've been better. Top 3 picked QBs were out of reach. He could've traded up for Fields but that would've cost a fair amount in draft capital for a guy who wasn't obviously going to be better (and basically hasn't been). He...
  10. NobodyInteresting

    Nothing special? The Kicking Game this season

    https://puntalytics.github.io/gallery.html is my goto for Punt analytics - saves doing the manual work that you did and I think their methodolgy, at least the last time I checked, is reasonably sound. They rank Baringer right around league average at 15th with 0.04 EPA/punt which is in line...
  11. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    I'm in general agreement with KFP here and I've got to say it's refreshing to read a page of posts (in both directions) that are measured and thoughtful rather than some of the reactions we've had recently. I am also (clearly) on the don't-fire-Bill side, but not because I expect him to turn...
  12. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    On the other hand, 4 Pats wins would have them finishing a not-completely-terrible 7-10, mirroring the 10-7 season. So Bill would have gone just one game total under 500 in three years with a guy who is apparently the worst quarterback in the history of the known universe and a backup who isn't...
  13. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    I don't think anyone is trying to argue they haven't been bad this year - I for one have explicitly said that they have - and if that's what you're taking from those posts then with respect I think you're not understanding them very well. (also - "Dominated by"? Is that how you really feel? That...
  14. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    Pats DVOA 2020 -2.7% 17th (7.7 estimated wins) 2021 16% 8th (9.3 estimated wins) 2022 -1.2% 16th (8.3 estimated wins) 2023 -15.4% 26th (4.4 estimated wins) So what if the record the last two years was 8.3-8.7, 4.4-8.6? That looks better, no? By DVOA they've been no worse this year than they...
  15. NobodyInteresting

    This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

    It really hasn't been going steadily downhill since 2019. 2020 was down, 2021 was up again and by any reasonable standards a good season (10-7, +159 points difference, made playoffs), 2022 was down again to about average (8-9, +17 points difference), 2023 has been bad. The downhill period here...
  16. NobodyInteresting

    Why is the Patriots’ Offense So Bad?

    Well you can definitely say at least some of the blame falls on Bill. The question is more complicated for everyone everyone else who is being forced to work within a misfiring system. What is crucial though is not making the mistake of saying Bill is to blame therefore Bill must be fired. Bill...
  17. NobodyInteresting

    Why is the Patriots’ Offense So Bad?

    I don't disagree with you. When I say lots of things aren't working and very few things are, I think the scheme is an obvious one that isn't. Whether that means the scheme needs to change, the coaching needs to change, the players need to change or just the whole thing needs a bit more time I...
  18. NobodyInteresting

    Tyreek Hill - Special Appearance on the Maury Show next week

    Disqualified on the grounds that he shouts "here we go" every snap in a voice that sounds enough like Fozzie Bear that my girlfriend starts laughing at him. The MVP must maintain the NFLs taking-itself-too-seriously image, surely? More seriously - I agree with you, Dak is a totally plausible...
  19. NobodyInteresting

    Tyreek Hill - Special Appearance on the Maury Show next week

    I've been watching this since week 1, when he went off for 215 yards. His worst 5-game stretch of the season so far (games 7-11) generated 510 yards. My guess is that if he doesn't get hurt he'll get it. Couldn't have happened to a nicer fella. /s
  20. NobodyInteresting

    Why is the Patriots’ Offense So Bad?

    I think the issue is that so many things aren't working well that each part is being hampered by every other part. For example, special teams deserve a category here...if you believe PFF on this (YMMV), some aspects of that have been truly horrendous, Just eyeballing that chart it seems they...