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  1. nvalvo

    3/28/24 - Opening Day 2024 - Red Sox at Mariners

    I love the LLRLRLRLR.
  2. nvalvo

    3/28/24 - Opening Day 2024 - Red Sox at Mariners

    That's likely approaching three WAR if he gets 600 PA. So, yeah, I'd be extremely happy with that year one.
  3. nvalvo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    I think that if the team is good at all, we’ll be looking to add a starter at the deadline. So selling one or both of Martin and Jansen for prospects to replenish those sent out for that starter, while backfilling their workload with Hendricks, could be a way to do that.
  4. nvalvo

    3/28/24 - Opening Day 2024 - Red Sox at Mariners

    These would be my choices: Trevor Story – the one-time All Star and two-way shortstop has been plagued by injuries in recent seasons, following a big FA contract. This season is something of a redemption tour, and Story has both the talent and the surgically-repaired elbow to make it happen...
  5. nvalvo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    Toe, it came in a "bold predictions" article.
  6. nvalvo

    3/28/24 - Opening Day 2024 - Red Sox at Mariners

    We've had a really, really good Spring, I think. Basically, with the exception of the Giolito injury, little has gone wrong and a ton has gone right. We just shellacked the defending champs in a pair of exhibitions. Let's carry that momentum into the season.
  7. nvalvo

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    Cool, thanks. Maybe I'll do that at some point.
  8. nvalvo

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    I wonder sometimes if it would make sense to evaluate these things at the trade deadline. You might sometimes have teams that are projected to contend, say, but they start slow and drift out of contention. If they end up trading a bunch of departing FAs, that choice to sell could turn a mild...
  9. nvalvo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Is that what most of the reporting says? Merloni just told us a few days ago that the Sox had a “standing offer” out to JM for months. I’m not saying that one is true and the other isn’t; I’m saying I don’t think there’s a ton of clarity.
  10. nvalvo

    Red Sox acquire right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa from TB for cash considerations

    Man, those Fighters’ uniforms are nuts.
  11. nvalvo

    Shohei Ohtani’s attorneys accuse interpreter of ‘massive theft’ tied to alleged gambling

    I agree with you that that’s what the crisis PR person *should* have done. But if this report is true, it is not what he or she *did.*
  12. nvalvo

    Shohei Ohtani’s attorneys accuse interpreter of ‘massive theft’ tied to alleged gambling

    I might have missed something, but I just listened to a recent Effectively Wild podcast on this topic and it contained a nugget I hadn’t seen in this thread that (if true) made a bunch of this make way more sense to me. That nugget was that the narrative about how Ohtani transferred the money...
  13. nvalvo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    You don’t necessarily need to want to make a huge investment in the player for this to make sense. For example, Duran is slated for FA in 2029. If we estimate that he will earn $700k this year and next, and then $4m, $7m, and $10m in arb, we should consider offering him 5/$20m, a touch less than...
  14. nvalvo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    So, one way of salvaging this situation would be giving extensions to—or even just buying out the arb years of—Casas and a few other younger players in a way that shifted AAV onto this season from future seasons.
  15. nvalvo

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    I wonder if part of the plan is to acquire an SP “with term” at the deadline as a way to have our “give the kids a chance” cake and eat it too. Good starts from a couple of the kids (Yorke and Bleis, especially) could give us quite a stockpile to trade from.
  16. nvalvo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    I think this is right. One thing about the rebuilding/retooling path we've been on is that at some point you need to reestablish your credibility. It's possible to do that if the homegrown players take biiiig steps such that we start to look really credible, but sometimes it takes a crazy FA...
  17. nvalvo

    Let's Lay Off That Throttle

    Yup. I'd guess our offer was in the 4/$80m–5/$90m range, and he (as is his right) prefers the 2/$50m. Damn.
  18. nvalvo

    2024 Red Sox Spring Training

    Yoshida heating up. If I’m seeing all the box scores, he’s 5 for his last 7, and has added ~70 points to his spring BA and about .200 to his spring OPS in his last three games.
  19. nvalvo

    Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

    My speculation about Montgomery is this. The Sox have the best multiyear offer out to him, but it’s 3-4 years at a total below what he wants. He also has at least one one-year offer, probably from Arizona, but would like either something like Snell got from SF or a 5-6 year 9-figure contract...
  20. nvalvo

    FanGraphs Positional Power Rankings by Team - Shortstop

    Oh, if slightly outside the top five is what you’re saying, that’s pretty much what I’d say, too. Nevermind. I’ve been feeling like he’s being seriously underrated in assessments of this team, and so I was perhaps a bit touchy on his behalf.