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  1. Hawk68

    Where the Red Sox have gone wrong

    JBJ best days behind him? 2017 Age 27 OPS+ 89 2018 Age 28 OPS+ 91 2019 Age 29 OPS+ 89 All over 1418 PA. He is what his numbers say he is.
  2. Hawk68

    JD and the opt out

    We know team officials can not interfere with players under contract but what unofficial back channel communications are within the rules? In short, how can a player with an opt-out test market interest in his services without violating the rules?
  3. Hawk68

    MLB/Atlantic league to experiment with the idea of stealing first base

    I am encouraged. MLB is taking on the larger question of quality of game. This mlb trial is a "laboratory agreement" intended to find changes that speed up pace of play, increase action and fit games into three-hour broadcast windows. We keep seeing discussions of pitch velocity dominance as...
  4. Hawk68

    Has Mookie peaked?

    As I recall the rise and decline of Yaz, his drop from the peak was driven by wrist injury that dramatically cut his power production. As late as May 29, 1971 his OPS = 1.002. From there steady decline through end of 1971. More of the same reduced production in 1972, excepting June and Sept...
  5. Hawk68

    Nathan Eovaldi to close

    Consider a hypothetical: Assume the Red Sox have the best offer on the table for a given trade. If the negotiating partner is aware of Red Sox urgency, that may impact the final closing cost.
  6. Hawk68

    Baseball Is Broken (on the field, proposed rule changes, attendance, etc.)

    MODS - please move if this fits in a better venue. Baseball may be broken, but the game is bigger than us all. For your viewing pleasure 1931 BP for the Babe and Iron Horse. Untutored in modern ways, they are here nevertheless, and connect us to a more raw and ad hoc day...
  7. Hawk68

    2019 Trade Deadline

    This is the most interesting quote to me: “It’s not a luxury tax issue, it’s a question of how much money do we want to lose? We’re already over budget and we were substantially over our budget last year and this year. We’re not going to be looking to add a lot of payroll." -John Henry The...
  8. Hawk68

    Has Mookie peaked?

    Some years back Fangraphs examined the pre and post steroid age related performance. For the reasons above; 2018 was outlier; our home grown stars have shown rapid declines, and the wRC+ curves in Fangraphs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/... I think it safe...
  9. Hawk68

    Has Mookie peaked?

    I do not see the 2019 trend in the 2017 data, but reasonable people can disagree. To eliminate the eyeball analysis of trends, looking at his Fangrapshs season average data, Betts 2019 wRC+ 119 most like his 2015 wRC+120. Peak Mookie... time will tell.
  10. Hawk68

    Has Mookie peaked?

    Those data tell me we have seen peak Mookie Betts. Assume Betts will go to free agency. What will he cost as a free agent? And what can we get for him in trade with his contract locking him in for the last 1/2 of 2019 and all of 2020?
  11. Hawk68

    Where the Red Sox have gone wrong

    What does his girlfriend grade out at? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6naO8n6HsqE
  12. Hawk68

    2019 Trade Deadline

    Fair question. My economy of force approach to writing requires reflection. I believe underperforming Red Sox will have parts sold off before the deadline. Sox leadership is taking prudent steps to explore the possibility and cost of improvement - but ultimately ending where I began. Sell.
  13. Hawk68

    2019 Trade Deadline

    I believe this is the first step toward selling. First see what talent at what cost is available to improve the underperforming Sox. Then decide to buy or sell.
  14. Hawk68

    Baseball Is Broken (on the field, proposed rule changes, attendance, etc.)

    It seems to me DVR posts above are an exemplar for why we have a thread "Baseball is broken". Those who love baseball enough to post tens of thousands of times use technology to filter out the non-entertaining portions of the game. And the elements of the game that have created more...
  15. Hawk68

    Baseball Is Broken (on the field, proposed rule changes, attendance, etc.)

    Washington Post ran a story that pitcher velocity has pushed baseball to three true outcomes. Now the Globe takes it further: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/06/22/you-get-whiff-failure-when-boiling-down-baseball-numbers/6iPyiZ9cTk3isQeGzVG6pN/story.html Gasper identifies...
  16. Hawk68

    Where the Red Sox have gone wrong

    This team is over priced and underperforming. Sell. The job of leadership is to recognize and deal with reality.
  17. Hawk68

    David Ortiz on the mend: shooting and recovery

    One God. One woman. One country.
  18. Hawk68

    Does consistency or streakiness create more value?

    Observation: reading the sports page for daily MLB box scores dating back to my youth, big innings win games. By observation, about 70% of the time, the team having the highest scoring inning in the game goes on to win the game. I do not have numbers to back up the assertion, but the...
  19. Hawk68

    David Ortiz on the mend: shooting and recovery

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/quick-work-luck-saved-red-sox-slugger-ortiz-surgeons-say-in-first-interview/2019/06/14/1873b66c-8eaf-11e9-b08e-cfd89bd36d4e_story.html?utm_term=.ae3cc4631fc5 The Washington Post reports on the actions of the DR medical team. And nine police arrests...
  20. Hawk68

    Question about hacking

    This sounds like your system has been compromised. Notify IT for their action. If your org does not have a dedicated department, get outside consultant.
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