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  1. Frisbetarian

    Round 1 Bruins-Leafs

    Thanks SJM, but I’m really happily retired. That’s a great question that unfortunately I cannot answer. And tbh, even if I could I have little faith in the accuracy of the response. One thing I can say is that we were always trying to determine how a potential acquisition would perform in a...
  2. Frisbetarian

    Round 1 Bruins-Leafs

    To some degree it is true in other sports, but I think it's more so in hockey. It's harder for an individual player to impact the game in hockey than baseball or especially basketball. In hockey you have 4 lines, 3 pairs, and a goalie (19 players) playing every game, and sans goalies those...
  3. Frisbetarian

    Round 1 Bruins-Leafs

    That’s a billion dollar question. I don’t think anyone has developed a wins above replacement metric that’s even close to accurate in hockey. I have some thoughts and estimates that I can’t share here, but a better question might be what’s a player like Bergeron worth compared to Pasta? Really...
  4. Frisbetarian

    Round 1 Bruins-Leafs

    When over 55% of the salary cap is allocated to just 4 players in a sport where even the (non goalie) players with the most ice time get just 20 minutes a game and there are 5 players on the ice at all times you are going to have huge holes elsewhere. Hockey is not a sport where a non goalie can...
  5. Frisbetarian

    Round 1 Bruins-Leafs

    Hold my beer hermano. I was positive we were going to win that night, and even brought a case of exceptional tequila to the Garden for the all night party. I would have received a ring, the Cup for a day, my name on the Cup, and a very healthy check (which would have been spent on the Stanley...
  6. Frisbetarian

    Sox trade John Schreiber to KC for minor league right-hander David Sandlin

    Schneider has just 6.46 K/9 this year, the lowest of his career and much lower than the 10.25 and 10.22 K/9 he had the last 2 seasons with the Red Sox. His strand rate, as @PrometheusWakefield mentioned above, is 94%, the highest of his career and well above the 77-78% he posted with the Red Sox...
  7. Frisbetarian

    Round 1 Bruins-Leafs

    I'm guessing you're using NaturalStatTrick or another publicly available data site for the Bergeron numbers above, but the more advanced team XPG numbers were not as kind to him in last season's playoffs. It's true he had a "decent" game 5, with solid counting numbers (Corsi/Fenwick), but his...
  8. Frisbetarian

    How do you solve a problem like Yoshida?

    I agree you have to keep running Yoshida out there for now, but his numbers since July 25 of last year are pretty anemic. In that span, totaling 271 PA, Yoshida is hitting .229 with a .262 OBP and .326 SLG for an OPS of.588. He has just 4 home runs with 11 walks and 48 Ks in that stretch. FWIW...
  9. Frisbetarian

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    The Red Sox have actually allowed 15 (per Fangraphs) or 16 (per BR) unearned runs in 13 games, which equates to 32% or 34% of their runs allowed being unearned. FWIW, the MLB team average this year is 6 unearned runs and 10% of total runs. I'll try to find time to run the last 10 years to see...
  10. Frisbetarian

    23-24 Bruins Season Thread

    With the caveat that I’m not sure how accurate this data is, what sticks out to me is that Jake Debrusk went from 23.23 MPH in 2022-23 which was 92nd percentile, to 22.15 this season, which is below 50th percentile. He still has bursts, but apparently not as consistently. I have no inside info...
  11. Frisbetarian

    Year Two Yoshida

    Great find. I have to imagine other teams saw that as well.
  12. Frisbetarian

    Year Two Yoshida

    Thanks
  13. Frisbetarian

    Year Two Yoshida

    Interesting article. Thanks for sharing. I’m not in a position to go into any kind of analytical depth (I’m in a small Mexican town with sketchy internet), but one thing did stand out to me in the article. Even when Yoshida was doing well last year, pre 7/1 when his swing and chase rates were...
  14. Frisbetarian

    Offseason rumors

    Please continue to post.
  15. Frisbetarian

    Pats select Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe at 137

    Per Statmuse, Zappe had the 10th lowest single game QBR of quarterbacks with over 25 pass attempts in NFL history today (1.8). It was arguably the worst of all time, since the other quarterbacks all did this at least 19 years ago, and the game has changed appreciably. Including sacks, the...
  16. Frisbetarian

    Year Two Yoshida

    The bolded is misleading. Yoshida was 30th out of just 57 qualified AL batters, so slightly below average for qualified hitters. Fwiw, he was 49th of those 57 in fWAR. I'm not sure why people are assuming Yoshida will improve at the plate or in the field this season. Isn’t it just as likely the...
  17. Frisbetarian

    Thank You Chris Sale

    Chris Sale has a 1 - 3 record and 6.35 ERA in the postseason for his career. That of course includes his “non-diminished” years. Kershaw is 13 - 13 with a 4.49 ERA. An aside, but Sale was a non factor in the 2018 playoffs. He was 6th on the team in innings pitched because, like every year, his...
  18. Frisbetarian

    Thank You Chris Sale

    Interesting fact. Kopech (4.5) and Moncada (14.4) have combined for a higher bWAR (18.9) than Sale (17.1) since the trade. And Kopech and Moncada did it for a combined salary of ~$45 million vs Sale at ~$114 million.
  19. Frisbetarian

    23-24 Bruins Season Thread

    Pretty close, but there were a lot more expletives from what I heard. Cam was very inventive with profanity.
  20. Frisbetarian

    23-24 Bruins Season Thread

    Absolutely correct. Bergeron's OZS percentage went from just under 40% under Claude to over 60% under Butch (with some gentle suggestions from the analytics staff).
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