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  1. tonyarmasjr

    "This is the first time I heard any of this stuff," said Bradley Jr

    I'd say it's more like a 2016 JBJ season.
  2. tonyarmasjr

    Mookie Betts appreciation thread

    I saw this and my thoughts were basically: There are a lot of athletes (and people, in general) who do things like this. They have many different reasons for doing so. Even if their motivation is that they're after the publicity of a good deed (and in no way do I think this is the case here)...
  3. tonyarmasjr

    Eovaldi to Red Sox, per Rosenthal

    Worth it! I didn't expect him to end up our #3 heading into the postseason. He certainly has been a welcome relief to watching guys not named Chris Sale against this mfy lineup.
  4. tonyarmasjr

    Catching Hell

    Looking at 2nd half numbers (which is just an arbitrary, sloppy split, especially considering injuries and sample size) on fangraphs of the 65 MLB catchers with 50+ PA (Vazquez had 51), Swihart ranked #30 in OPS (.706), #32 in wRC+ (88), #30 in wOBA (.307), #2 in BsR (1.1), #22 in Offensive...
  5. tonyarmasjr

    If the 10th Player Award Still Existed, It Would Go To...

    My vote would be for Holt, as well, especially in light of the fact that I opined dropping him instead of Marrero in ST. My expectation was that he was a shell of his former self. I assumed the two would be of relatively equal value (Holt the slightly better player; Marrero the better fit for...
  6. tonyarmasjr

    Catching Hell

    After today's first game, Swihart is up to .233/.289/.333 for the year. That's a full 100 points of OPS above Leon (.518) and 77 points higher than Vazquez (.545). If you look at splits for more recent performance (2nd half, last 30 days, last 14 days, etc.), those gaps grow to 3-5 times that...
  7. tonyarmasjr

    Red Sox re-sign Mitch Moreland for 2 years, 13 M

    His pre-June/post-June splits are a strange phenomenon. It's almost like they should just park him on the DL for all of July, no matter what, and see if he can come back strong in the second half. I can't believe it's just a matter of the league making adjustments to him. There's got to be...
  8. tonyarmasjr

    The 2018 Lineup

    We're another month on and clinched last night. Season wRC+ / Last 30 / Last 14 / MLB position rank (min. 180 PA - the cutoff to include Swihart). For the utility guys, I used the position at which they've appeared in the most games this season for ranks: Betts - 180 / 167 / 203 / 2 of 139 OF...
  9. tonyarmasjr

    Rebirth of a Sale, man

    In short, yes. In a recent presser, Boone addressed the fact that the doc was overly optimistic with the timeline. I would not say everyone knows it's an inexact science. I would say most people who have a clue understand that, but that doesn't capture either the casual mfy fan who sees it...
  10. tonyarmasjr

    Rebirth of a Sale, man

    Judge's current injury "timeline" is a perfect example.
  11. tonyarmasjr

    BOS bullpen 2018

    I think the issue is that the guys we expected to be the back-end/high leverage arms (Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes) have faltered. Pretty quietly, though (at least for me), Kelly has a line of 12 G, 11.2 IP, 9.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.54 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 3.40 xFIP over the last month. If he gets back near...
  12. tonyarmasjr

    The Legend of Xander

    The saving grace of that part of the order is that all the guys at the bottom have had some hot stretches - but they've come at different times. Nunez sucked while Holt was good, then they flipped. JBJ was awful for awhile, but Devers was hitting decently. Swihart had a nice little stretch...
  13. tonyarmasjr

    The 2018 Lineup

    Well, it's been almost 3 more weeks: Season / Last 30 / Last 14 Betts - 186 / 152 / 189 Martinez - 181 / 211 / 252 Pearce - 177 / 149 / 122 Benintendi - 135 / 113 / 108 Bogaerts - 131 / 123 / 193 Moreland - 108 / 55 / 49 Kinsler - 93 / 93 / -3 Holt - 93 / 66 / 122 Devers -89 / 104 / 94 Bradley...
  14. tonyarmasjr

    2018 Little League World Series

    He made several really good plays in the two games of theirs I watched. His start of a 5-4-3 against Idaho was on par with a really good high school 3B, and it was more impressive to me than the plays he's made diving toward the line. I'm glad they won today just because I've enjoyed watching...
  15. tonyarmasjr

    Is Sandy Leon a Major Difference Maker?

    This has come up in the Swihart thread, and it's an interesting discussion. If we really think he's a chief factor in that 29-2, we can probably save a lot of money not re-signing or extending some guys this offseason while still being a really, really good team... He has a .267 wOBA over this...
  16. tonyarmasjr

    Probability and Baseball: 90% of this is true, the other half is false

    Curious, are you meaning all types of projection models and rankings? Or just baseball? Or just a certain kind of baseball ones?
  17. tonyarmasjr

    I like big bats and I cannot lie: Acquiring a hitter

    Justin Bour getting picked up off waivers led me to check in on some of the options that were bandied about this winter. Our guys: Martinez - .332/.399/.656, 35 HR, 178 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR Moreland - .265/.334/.484, 14 HR, 117 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR - 15th of 38 1B with 250+ PA Nunez - .264/.291/.371, 6 HR...
  18. tonyarmasjr

    How Much Better Are Players Now?

    It's pretty crazy. There could be 4 guys pushing/over 10 fWAR plus a Triple Crown winner. Can't remember an MVP race with that many deserving guys. For reference, there have been 20 9+ fWAR seasons by hitters in the last 20 years - 8 of them by Bonds and Trout.
  19. tonyarmasjr

    Swihart's second rodeo

    Well, Dan Butler is undefeated! I think most everybody here agrees that catcher defense isn't valued properly, due in large part to many of its intricacies, a bunch of which are identified in this thread, being unquantifiable. The WAR values are an approximation, but they're only based on...
  20. tonyarmasjr

    Swihart's second rodeo

    Why have we been arguing, friend? We're seeing much the same thing here. 100% agree Sandy Leon is replacement level. He has 2319 career minor league PA with an OPS of .654. He has 1023 MLB PA with an OPS of .656. In 12 professional seasons, he's had an OPS over .700 twice. 2016 was a...
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