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  1. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    4/17 vs Guardians

    Every single K was swinging.
  2. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    4/17 vs Guardians

    Houck is making them look like absolute dunces
  3. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    4/17 vs Guardians

    and it sure looked like his toe clipped the bag on the replay.
  4. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    That's not an unreasonable guess but it really depends on what happens over the next 6 years. If he puts up enough WAR over the next 6 years to give him a likely arb earnings of 37.5mm total, then he just needs like 1.5 wins total in the following years. If his arb totals would hit something...
  5. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    I don't think that it quite makes sense to think about it that way as Ceddanne is not a free agent, so the whole $8m per WAR rule doesn't apply. The value of this contract can only really be evaluated in comparison to what the arbitration process would have looked like. In six years we will...
  6. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Roki Sasaki MLB watch -- 2025 probably?

    I apologize if this has been covered elsewhere, but would it be legal for a team to offer a substantial charitable contribution in a player's name as part of a signing package, or does this come too close to compensation? For example, if Sasaki was posted this offseason and was limited to the...
  7. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Clearly true, but at least after this series one doesn't have to squint to see how this team could make a legitimate playoff push if things do go right. I still think it's way more likely that they end up on the outside looking in, but despite the lack of FA signings I'm more optimistic now than...
  8. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    3.31 - Easter Funday

    I absolutely can't complain about a strong split on a West Coast road trip against a legit playoff contender. Looooong way to go, but the pitching results seem more meaningful in the context of the excellent Spring.
  9. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Sox starters through 4 games this year: 22 IP 14 H 4 ER 27 K 1 BB .68 WHIP 1.64 ERA 11 K/9 Sox starters through 4 games last year: 15.1 IP 26 H 22 ER 21 K 9 BB 2.28 WHIP 12.92 ERA 12.33 K/9 Other than the strikeouts it's a night and day difference. Tiny sample size, of course, but it's clear...
  10. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    I agree with the general sentiment here, and I hope that those of you who are feeling excited for the youth movement will keep that perspective if and when some of these guys go through rough stretches. There are likely going to be times where these guys are hard to watch, but if we want to see...
  11. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Remaining Free Agent Speculation and Signings (Trades, too)

    While I'm sure that there is some disincentive for pitchers to come to a hitter friendly park on a pillow contract, I think it's probably less than one might think. Undoubtedly FO's are using park adjusted metrics when evaluating talent, and I'd bet that the agents are well aware of this.
  12. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Remaining Free Agent Speculation and Signings (Trades, too)

    Yeah, I really don't get the folks that are arguing that Montgomery is average-ish. He had an ERA+ of 139 and an ERA- of 74 last year. His ERA- is 7th in all of baseball among qualified pitchers and 13th among all pitchers with at least 100 innings. By FIP- he is 14th/17th. Considering "average...
  13. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Revised contract predictions for Snell and Montgomery

    How much impact would the QO have on depressing total contract value? If Montgomery signs after opening day he likely won't be ready for a while after that and will take even longer to get into peak form. I can't help but wonder if the value he'd lose in having his pillow contract be less...
  14. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Offseason rumors

    This doesn't surprise me at all, but not because of anything particular to Wheeler. I did an analysis a while back that looked at all of the free agents who signed substantial contracts in the several years previous and how they did WAR-wise compared to their AAV and contract size. Hitters...
  15. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Should the Sox sell high on Jarren Duran?

    With the score tied, I put in my vote to keep Duran. It's not a strong take for me -- I'd be fine trading him if the return was right, but I don't think that trading him just for the sake of maximizing return value regardless of what that value is makes sense. Like, if he's going to bring back...
  16. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Rest in Peace, DaveRoberts'Shoes

    Just gutted by this. Does anyone know if there is a way to donate to TACA without giving them my personal contact info?
  17. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    Offseason rumors

    I'm with you here on Duran. He has a lot to prove, but writing him off as AAAA seems like a clear mistake for someone who just put up ~350 PA at a 3.5-4 WAR/600 PA rate. Depending on if you are looking at a minimum of 400 PA or qualified OF, by fWAR a slightly above average MLB OF is around...
  18. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    How Many Games Does Anthony Rendon Play In 2024?

    I'll take 45.
  19. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    And it Burnes, Burnes, Burnes… to Baltimore?

    Absolutely, it's an incredible time to be an O's fan. When I was really young and lived in NoVA (pre Nats) I very loosely rooted for the Cal Ripken Jr. O's, but lost interest in baseball for the better part of a decade and had been living in MA for years when Pedro's ASG performance pulled me...
  20. Pedroia's Itchy Nose

    And it Burnes, Burnes, Burnes… to Baltimore?

    Not quibbling with your overall argument, but there does seem to be some disagreement about Joey Ortiz's level. BA has him as Baltimore's #7 prospect, but Fangraphs has him at 50 FV and Baltimore's #3 prospect. Fangraph's rating puts him above Teel and Anthony but below Mayer. Regardless this...
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