1/15 - Devils @ Bruins
- Thread starter Murby
- Start date
Maybe. The issue was they picked a guy they thought had third line upside in the first. It’s probably been a median outcome for draft position but I wouldn’t use Frederic as the guy I want to take a victory lap over. So he didn’t get the first round wrong but I still don’t like saying he got it right.
I'll have to dig up one of the articles I've read on draft value but I do believe 3rd liner is an above average outcome for 29th overall.
There's basically an enormous cliff after like the 10th pick in the draft where "played in the NHL" becomes a great outcome.
My issue is more philosophical - they drafted a guy who hit his apex (good on them) but his apex was low (less good on them) it feels like a bad use of a first round asset. There are only a few guys picked close enough after him who are equal or greater than Frederic (Kyrou, DeBrincat, Girard, Hronek) so they probably picked the "right" guy. I just don't love the logic that got them there.
I also feel he's a bit smoke and mirrors given his 20% shooting percentage. Like what he brings to the team regardless but feels like a 10-15 goal scorer than the 20ish goal scorer based on last year and this year.
I also feel he's a bit smoke and mirrors given his 20% shooting percentage. Like what he brings to the team regardless but feels like a 10-15 goal scorer than the 20ish goal scorer based on last year and this year.
Yeah, they go for high floor low ceiling types which leads to Freddy over DeBrincat. I get yearning for more home run swings but at the same time they seem to do a pretty good job of getting NHL players out of their drafts. I don't know if it's better to go 1-10 with the 1 being a DeBrincat or 4-10 with 4 Frederic's. Long term, the latter seems like the way to go but I don't know.
As for Freddy, the goals will slow a bit as the shooting percentage normalizes but he's still been really good for his usage. He's one of their best 5x5 scorers. The raw numbers aren't eye popping because he doesn't get any PP time but in goals per 60 at 5x5 over the last 2 seasons Frederic is 2nd behind Pastrnak. Most of his rate stats between this year and last year are the same so while he has 1 or 2 more goals because of an inflated shooting percentage I wouldn't charactorize his performance as smoke and mirrors.
As for Freddy, the goals will slow a bit as the shooting percentage normalizes but he's still been really good for his usage. He's one of their best 5x5 scorers. The raw numbers aren't eye popping because he doesn't get any PP time but in goals per 60 at 5x5 over the last 2 seasons Frederic is 2nd behind Pastrnak. Most of his rate stats between this year and last year are the same so while he has 1 or 2 more goals because of an inflated shooting percentage I wouldn't charactorize his performance as smoke and mirrors.