20% in, how would you evaluate the Bruins?

[McDrew]

The Bruins have played 16 games, and are roughly 20% of the way through the season. They currently sit 2nd in the East with 20 points, 7 points behind Montreal for 1st. They are on pace to earn 100 points for the season. Jack and Brick also had a lot of commentary last night about how the lines are starting to fall into place, and how it showed that cohesion between lines was resulting in better hockey being played. Given that the Bruins are exceeding expectations, what do you think is the reason, and how could they be doing better?

Here's my opinions, feel free to tear them apart like you usually do.

As Good as we Expected:

• Brad Marchand: Signed a monster deal, went to the WHC, dominated, and has not slowed down. Is a PPG player currently (5-11-16 in 16G). Late 90's NHL tonight would describe him as "en fuego". His stickhandling in traffic has taken a huge step up this year, and David Pastrnak is a huge benefactor of that.
• Tuukka Rask: (10-1-0, .945, 3SO). On fire, and a big reason this team is where it is. The big reason is that he doesn't seem to be giving up the occasional Thimas softie. I doubt he can keep this up all season, especially if the B's are getting 0 wins from his backups, but he's playing really well right now.

Trending Up:

• David Pastrnak: (10-4-16). Seems to be a breakout year potential. Outside of getting suspended 2 games, he's been fantastic. He also has taken advantage of Ovie's area (just above the weak side dot) to get some good shots on. If he can get open, he has 2 fantastic passers on his line that will give him shots.
• The 2nd LIne: "The Ryan Spooner Wing Experiment" is the name of my Tragically Hip cover band. Its also been good for Ryan Spooner and the line he got moved on. Ryan Spooner struggled mightly at center on the 3rd line, and the move to wing, with its new responsibilities has seemed to suit Spooner well. He's been in much better position, has been open a lot more, and has been making better plays since (1-3-4 in his last 5 games). The switch has allow helped Krecji(2-4-6 last 5) and David Backes (1-2-3 last 5). David Backes has also delivered a great physical presence that was evident in last night's game against the Avs.
• Brandon Carlo: He's playing with Z, but he's leading NHL rookies in ice time and is a +11. The B's needed another defenseman coming into the season, and he could be part of that.
• Road Warriors: (7-3-0 on the road). The B's have played 4 more road games, and they're 4 wins better on the road than at home. The B's swept an @ARI/@COL back to back, but have split their other 2 back-to-backs, going win@home night 1, loss@away 2nd night both times. They also just went 4-1-0 on a 5 games in 7 days streak.
  
• Zdeno Chara: Carlo seems to be a great counterpart so Z doesn't have to be as dominant has he had to be last year. Z is still playing massive minutes, but Carlo is getting a lot of those minutes as well.

Who Knows?:

• The 3rd line: Nash, Czarnik, Beleskey have gelled since they were put together, and they have gotten an occasional point, but they are not comparable to Peverley-Kelly-Ryder from 2011. That line was a 2nd line in a 3rd slot and would dominate the other team's 3rd line.
• Frank Vatrano: Earned a spot in the starting 20 last year, but is injured and needs to work his way back. Hopefully he can re-earn a spot when he does come back.

Trending Down:

• The 4th line: Constantly in flux, and Jimmy Hayes is earning way more than 4th line money. Tim Schaller seems to be an appropriate 4th line guy.
• Everyone behind Tuukka: (0-5-0). Malcolm Subban is not ready. Anton Khudobin is hurt. Zane McIntyre looked shaky. This group needs to get wins so the B's don't need to ride Tuukka like a horse down the stretch.
  
• Adam McQuaid: Stuck in mediocre-mode, and seems to get injured, a lot. I worry that he's already hit his skill ceiling because of his injuries (>100 missed games in his career).

As Bad as we expected:

• Kevan Miller: Is a dumpster fire, and is under contract for for 3 more seasons at 2.5M per.
• Jimmy Hayes: (0-0-0, -9). He scored a SO winning goal. And that's about it. If he was earning like 1M less and fought a bit more, he'd be an ok Sean Thornton 2.0, but he isn't.

 

[kenneycb]

I don't know how we can say Miller's been a dumpster fire when he hasn't suited up for a regular season game yet. Not sure why he isn't in the "Who Knows?" category. Sure he's thew whipping boy in these places but he literally has done nothing this year outside of preseason, which I don't count.

My biggest concern is that they're riding Tuukka way more than I'm comfortable with right now. Of course, they're largely winning the games they're supposed to win but haven't played a horribly difficult schedule. The next month or so will probably be more telling as the schedule looks to ramp up with competition.

 

[cshea]

Yeah, Rask's .945 is unsustainable. He's typically between .925-.930 though, so the dip from his current level of play shouldn't be too drastic. His hot streak has coincided with a scoring slump, which has helped them grab points despite not scoring much, and only having a +2 differential. The defense in front of him has been better. It is early on, but they are allowing 2 fewer shots per 60 than they did a year ago. The shot metrics so far are encouraging. The Bruins 2nd in score adjusted CF%. They are second in shots per 60 at ES, and 8th in shots against. They are 26th in shooting percentage at 7.49%. They shot 8.90% last year, so hopefully more goals are on the horizon. The Krejci line has been excellent the past few games and the 39/20/27 line seems to be starting to gain traction.

 

[thehitcat]

Less bad than I expected. I'm looking at you Defence, particularly Carlo. Not as good as I hoped. The scoring to date after Marchand's insane start. We need a five goal laugher or two where Tuuka doesn't have to save every single shot.

 

[TFP]

Less bad than I expected. I'm looking at you Defence, particularly Carlo. Not as good as I hoped. The scoring to date after Marchand's insane start. We need a five goal laugher or two where Tuuka doesn't have to save every single shot.

In their last 4 wins, they've had wins of 4-0 and 5-2.

I do agree with general point that I did not expect them to be in the top 3rd of the league in defense but the bottom 3rd in offense.

 

[biff_hardbody]

Czarnik has looked really good the last 2-3 games and the 2nd line has (by my eye test) had more puck control in the offensive zone and has created more opportunities with that control.

I've been pleasantly surprised. The defense looks (again to my naked eye and in a SSS) looked more comfortable in their defensive zone and been better at moving the puck this year, McQuaid excluded. Carlo stands out here and that includes a few rookie mistakes. Chara looks better as well.

The performances they have gotten from Rask, Marchand, and Pastrnak have been OUTSTANDING. Patrice has also been outstanding though at this point that has come to be expected.

 

[joe dokes]

I think when you look at the improved -- or better than expected -- defense, you also have to look at the forwards. Spooner and (especially) Pastrnak are playing better in the defensive end, and are more successful with keeping the puck in the zone on offense that they were. Pastrnak seemed to make the effort last year, but just wasn;t big enough. Now when he throws his body, it works.

 

[Maximus]

Carlo has been a great addition to the D. Still concerned with Colin Miller, McQuaid and Liles. I hope Sweeney can upgrade the D at the deadline. Always have been a Backes fan and he has been a great addition to the forward group. Dominic Moore has been a surprisingly solid addition. Pasta is great on the 1st line and hopefully Vatrano can add further depth to the forward group in a couple of months. Rask has been terrific so far this year and hopefully Khudobin is back soon to provide a solid backup.

 

[TheRealness]

Pastrnak has been a stud. He's stronger, faster, more physical, and the effect on his game has been substantial. He's having a breakout year, and looks like an elite level player. They need to lock him up long term. Marchand has been a stud, as has been Rask and those are two huge things and great to see.

Krejci turning it around has been a big part of their current run, and really makes them deep and dangerous offensively. I expect Vatrano to take Spooner's job once he's healthy, although if he can't get up to speed that may not happen this year. I still expect Spooner to get traded before the deadline.

The defense has been great, in large part to the balancing effect of Carlo. He's very smooth, calm and steady back there. His poise has made Chara seem 4 years younger, and they have formed their first legit top pairing defensive unit since Seidenberg's knees were intact. The trickle down effect has been large, although McQuaid has mostly been awful. They really need to move him, but I am hopeful K. Miller's stats allow him to be a more effective player than Quaider. I'd like to see him moved, but I expect them both to play and I don't expect that to be positive.

Still, I've been entertained and I feel better about them making the playoffs. That alone is good for me.

 

[biff_hardbody]

Still, I've been entertained and I feel better about them making the playoffs. That alone is good for me.

I agree wholeheartedly and would add that Rask's and the young guys' (Carlo, Pastrnak) performance has given me the feeling that we'll have a lot to look forward to in the future. Here's to hoping Vegas takes one of McQuaid or K. Miller off our hands.

 

[cshea]

They have a roster squeeze on D coming shortly. Kevan Miller is nearing his return, which would leave them with 8 D. Carlo is the only waiver exempt D and it seems highly unlikely he gets sent down. They'll probably keep all 8 so I'm curious to see what the rotation will look like when Miller returns. I assume Kevan goes in for Colin and Miller/Morrow rotate in when needed.

Also, I was just looking at some stats, and one thing really jumped out at me- Bergeron only has a 25% D-zone start, which is the lowest among forwards on the team. That is a significant shift in deployment by Julien. Moore and Backes are handling the bulk of the D zone starts so far this year. Bergeron has pretty much always been around 35-38% in D zone starts, leading the team. Either they're managing things due to his early injury that could still be bothering him, or they're shifting to wanting him to play in a more offensive role. It's something to keep an eye on.

 

[joe dokes]

Also, I was just looking at some stats, and one thing really jumped out at me- Bergeron only has a 25% D-zone start, which is the lowest among forwards on the team. That is a significant shift in deployment by Julien. Moore and Backes are handling the bulk of the D zone starts so far this year. Bergeron has pretty much always been around 35-38% in D zone starts, leading the team. Either they're managing things due to his early injury that could still be bothering him, or they're shifting to wanting him to play in a more offensive role. It's something to keep an eye on.

That's pretty interesting. In the short term, I think its about helping the offense, since Pastrnak and Marchand are both top end offensive players (and the offense from other guys was way off early). It also "protects" Pastrnak a bit (to the extent he still needs it). Towards the long term it gives the team a chance to see what guys like Moore and Backes can do on this team/with Julien's approach.

 

[TheRealness]

They have a roster squeeze on D coming shortly. Kevan Miller is nearing his return, which would leave them with 8 D. Carlo is the only waiver exempt D and it seems highly unlikely he gets sent down. They'll probably keep all 8 so I'm curious to see what the rotation will look like when Miller returns. I assume Kevan goes in for Colin and Miller/Morrow rotate in when needed.

Also, I was just looking at some stats, and one thing really jumped out at me- Bergeron only has a 25% D-zone start, which is the lowest among forwards on the team. That is a significant shift in deployment by Julien. Moore and Backes are handling the bulk of the D zone starts so far this year. Bergeron has pretty much always been around 35-38% in D zone starts, leading the team. Either they're managing things due to his early injury that could still be bothering him, or they're shifting to wanting him to play in a more offensive role. It's something to keep an eye on.

Two things:

One, I hope they rotate McQuaid/Morrow, and let Kevan play. I suspect he will be much better than McQuaid. Or, at least, I hope.

As for Bergeron not starting as much in the D-Zone, I think that is more about Moore's ability to play in his own end and Claude's trust of him, combined with Backes being able to take D-Zone draws for Krejci, who is probably below average in faceoffs. So, ultimately, I think it's more about offense than it is about protecting a potential injury.

 

[cshea]

20 games in now and the Bruins continue to struggle to score.

1st line: 15
2nd line: 2
3rd line: 5
4th line: 5
D: 4

That is all the 5x5 scoring the Bruins have done this season. I'm kind of at a loss for how to fix it. Their possession is 3rd in the league and they are generating the 2nd most shots in the league. So it's not like they aren't generating chances.Their 6.19% shooting percentage is 5th worst, so that seems to be the culprit. Last year they shot 7.73% at 5x5, so do we just ride it out and hope for the best? Make changes up front?

 

[lexrageorge]

Not a playoff team as currently constructed. The 5-on-5 scoring problems are due to a lack of a true second line scorer, someone that can put the puck in the net even when the team isn't playing well. They seemed to have underestimated the age-related regression of some key players, including Backes.

Doubtful that their problems are fixable in 2016-17.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

David Pastrnak is off to one heck of a great strt in his final season as a Bruin.

 

[tims4wins]

 

[j44thor]

5 Games since OP and they are now on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Carlo/Pastrnak have been revelations, Marchand/Z/Tuukka earning their pay.
Backes/Moore seem like solid additions for this season.

The rest need to step it up in a big way.

 

[cshea]

I don't think they are shitty. The underlying numbers are really good, and vastly improved from a year ago. The sample size is growing, and each game it looks like less and less of a fluke. Last year they scored a ton and gave up a ton. This year they are getting excellent goaltending and defense, but can't put the puck in the net.

CF% 54.0, 1st in the league
Shots for per 60: 32.3, 2nd in the league
Shots against/60: 26.9, 4th best in the league

Those should be indicators of a good team. Like I said above, and elsewhere, they're in a shooting slump. Christ, Torey Krug has 5 goals in his last 309 SOG over his last 102 games. He needs to sacrifice a chicken or something. Not sure how to fix that other than to keep firing away and hope that once a goal or two go in, the flood gates open.

They don't have a whole lot of internal options. I think they need a LW for the 2nd line and a 3C. Vatrano should help but he is still a few weeks away from returning, and it's probably asking a lot of him to be a top 6 wing right out of the gate. Heinen, Cehlarik and DeBrusk are playing well in Providence, so I guess they could take a look-see at one of them to see if they provide a jolt. DeBrusk leads the AHL in shots, but only has 3 goals to show for it, so he has shooting problems of his own. Heinen had minor injury so he may not be a great option at the moment either.

 

[kenneycb]

At what point is it a shooting slump and at what point do you just lack scoring talent?

 

[cshea]

At what point is it a shooting slump and at what point do you just lack scoring talent?

I don't think it is a lack of talent. It's not like they have career 4th line plugs not scoring.

Bergeron- 10.1% career; 4.4% this season
Beleskey- 9.5% career; 5.1% this season
Krejci- 11.4% career; 4.9% this season
Nash- 10.5% career; 3.4% this season
Hayes- 10.8% career(!!!): 0.0% this season

Bergeron, Beleskey and Krejci have talent and should be scoring more, or at least I would like to think they do. Nash was brought in with the intention of having him play on the 4th line, so him not sourcing isnt as big a deal. Hayes is Hayes. Marchand and Backes are also both below their career averages, though not as significantly. The only forwards above their career averages are Pastrnak, Moore and Schaller.

 

[Jordu]

Do you think shooting percentage is in any way analogous to BABIP? In other words, is this a run of bad luck?

Found this 2014 piece arguing shooting percentage is mostly luck. Evidence? The variation in players' SP year to year.

http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/the-roller-coaster-world-of-nhl-shooting-percentages/

 

[jk333]

Do you think shooting percentage is in any way analogous to BABIP? In other words, is this a run of bad luck?

Found this 2014 piece arguing shooting percentage is mostly luck. Evidence? The variation in players' SP year to year.

http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/news/the-roller-coaster-world-of-nhl-shooting-percentages/

It is like babip but takes a long time to even out. (over a season) An average player will shoot 8-12% for their career. Snipers will be on the high end, enforcers will be be even lower and in any given season an individual player can be much higher or lower. A team's shooting percentage shouldn't be as down as the Bruins is though.

Here is an interesting article that talks to it a bit more than the one posted above- http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/1/28/5353036/nhl-shot-differential-stats-importance

Interesting bit- they estimate winning to be 5% goaltending, 5% shot quality, 38% Luck and 37% shot differential.

 

[kenneycb]

That's a lot less catchy than the Fort Minor song.

 

[ngruz25]

Last season, Torey Krug had the 25th-most shots on goal in the league. He scored on only 1.6% of those shots, which is not good. You have to go all the way down to 149th on the shots leaders to find another player under 3% (Seth Jones).

Surely there is an element of luck to that stat, right? However, this season Krug is 14th on the shots leaders, and has only connected on an abysmal 0.9% of those shots. That's far below his peers.

These numbers agree with what my eyes are telling me: Krug makes some bad decisions with the puck. He takes low percentage shots very frequently. And, unfortunately, he's not a great shot. He has a slow, long windup and often fires pucks into defenders' pads. Of course, there's an opportunity cost in taking bad shots, especially on the power play, as you potentially give up the chance to take a better shot or make a better play, or give up possession.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Last season, Torey Krug had the 25th-most shots on goal in the league. He scored on only 1.6% of those shots, which is not good. You have to go all the way down to 149th on the shots leaders to find another player under 3% (Seth Jones).

Surely there is an element of luck to that stat, right? However, this season Krug is 14th on the shots leaders, and has only connected on an abysmal 0.9% of those shots. That's far below his peers.

These numbers agree with what my eyes are telling me: Krug makes some bad decisions with the puck. He takes low percentage shots very frequently. And, unfortunately, he's not a great shot. He has a slow, long windup and often fires pucks into defenders' pads. Of course, there's an opportunity cost in taking bad shots, especially on the power play, as you potentially give up the chance to take a better shot or make a better play, or give up possession.

I suspect you are reversing cause and effect here, with the craptastic nature of the Bruins' power play leading Krug to take more bad shots as opposed to the opposite.

 

[j44thor]

I suspect you are reversing cause and effect here, with the craptastic nature of the Bruins' power play leading Krug to take more bad shots as opposed to the opposite.

I don't think that is the case since the B's PP was 7th overall last season at 20%.

 

[ngruz25]

I suspect you are reversing cause and effect here, with the craptastic nature of the Bruins' power play leading Krug to take more bad shots as opposed to the opposite.

Maybe, but what prompted me to look up these numbers in the first place was my feeling that Krug seems to take a LOT of terrible shots AND has an itchy trigger finger. That is, I feel like every time he touches the puck, he's winding up to take a bad shot when a better or at least a different play is there. I get the whole "can't score if you don't shoot" thing, but I'm not sure that weak shots with no traffic are the answer.

I was a little surprised that the numbers seem to reflect my observations - Krug truly is in a different world than the rest of the league when it comes to shots taken and percentage of those shots that go in. That's gotta mean something. You might be right that it says more about the team than Krug himself. I really don't know.

 

[cshea]

Here are Krug's shot rates over the past 4 seasons:

13/14- 7.94 shots/60; 10.76 iFenwick/60; 16.91 iCorsi/60
14/15- 8.05; 11.51; 16.53
15/16- 8.36; 11.72; 16.83
16/17- 8.59; 11.88; 17.74

Fenwick is unblocked shots, Corsi is all shot attempts. There's no real difference in any of those stats. There's season by season uptick across the board in everything, which is likely due to an increase in ice time. He's not suddenly getting more shots blocked, or missing the net more. The rates are basically the same they've always been. His shooting % has gone 7.7, 5.9, 1.6 to 0.9 over those 4 years. I think a lot of it is luck, but we have a large sample size of a sub 2% shooting now. Defenseman will carry a lower percentage than forwards since they shoot from further out, but the offensive minded D like Karlsson/Byfuglien/Subban/Burns are all usually 5-8%.

I have no idea how to fix a bad shooting percentage. Krug is of the only one, it's a team wide issue right now and basically the only reason they have a middling record. The team shooting percentage is 6.71%, dead last in the league. Buffalo is 29th at 7.33. David Pastrnak and Dominic Moore are the only 2 players shooting above their career averages. Marchand is a 15% career shooter; 8.8% this season. Bergy is way down too, at 3.7%.

 

[The Napkin]

I have no idea how to fix a bad shooting percentage. Krug is of the only one, it's a team wide issue right now and basically the only reason they have a middling record. The team shooting percentage is 6.71%, dead last in the league. Buffalo is 29th at 7.33. David Pastrnak and Dominic Moore are the only 2 players shooting above their career averages. Marchand is a 15% career shooter; 8.8% this season. Bergy is way down too, at 3.7%.

Is there an easy place to find a shot map of where the shots are coming from?

 

[PedroSpecialK]

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/

Only on a player level though, not team or combination-specific - and not yet updated for this season

 

[jk333]

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/
Only on a player level though, not team or combination-specific - and not yet updated for this season

Team data is actually at the bottom of the drop down list. However, some of the data is a bit funky. For instance, it has the Bruins as attempting only 1600 shots in 12'-13' and 2500-3000 in other years. Same for the Lightning. Shots are lower in 15'-16' too, I assume this is due to the way source data categorized the shots or data in those years.

From the charts, it's interesting that the 15-16' Bruins scored so much more from the goalies left side. Even that could be the data set though. It'd be interesting to see a full data set, shooting from the center of the ice is critical.

Thanks for the site, it's fun to read through.

 

[The Mort Report]

I know I'm coming a little late to this party but I don't put much stock in shooting percentages for Dmen. A lot of their shots, especially on the PP are designed to be tipped or give up a juicy rebound. A good low shot to either side of a goalie that is a leg pad save can leave great rebounds. When I'm in net playing a man down with high level players most goals are off rebounds, tips or "shot" passes. We all saw Jimmy Hayes score his second goal off Collin Miller's shot from the blue line. If 5 of his assists were goals from tips/rebounds because he was shooting for that, his "percentage" would be just over 5%

 

[Red Right Ankle]

That would all be captured in the comparison, though - it's all shots (whether designed for an intentional rebound/tip in/etc.) in previous years vs. all shots (whether designed for an intentional rebound/tip in/etc.) this year. You'd need to do some analysis on "shot intent" to actually state that this year's percentage should be disregarded because a given player has been taking a lot more shots designed to get rebounds/tips/etc. than previously.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

That would all be captured in the comparison, though - it's all shots (whether designed for an intentional rebound/tip in/etc.) in previous years vs. all shots (whether designed for an intentional rebound/tip in/etc.) this year. You'd need to do some analysis on "shot intent" to actually state that this year's percentage should be disregarded because a given player has been taking a lot more shots designed to get rebounds/tips/etc. than previously.

Sure, but I would not be surprised if defensemen on lousy offensive teams tend to have lower shooting percentages than one would expect from their career norms. I wonder if anyone has ever looked at this.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

Hard to get the arrow of causation right on that though, no? The offense could be bad because the defenseman are shooting below their norms.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

Arrow of Causation would be a pretty good album or D&D magic weapon name. Or, I guess, it could be both if we were talking prog rock.

 

[cshea]

There is on-ice shooting percentage as well, which would account for tips / rebounds.

FWIW, Krug's on ice shoot long percentage is 5.74% at 5x5. His previous career low was 7.50% last season.