So what the player in that particular season does is not as relevant as whatever perception that player has in history? So LeBron could play 15 games and still make All-NBA?
2016-2017 NBA Game Thread
- Thread starter Kliq
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Hmm... 15 is stretching it. At that point you call it mostly a lost season, and the historical record should probably note that. But games missed is never a "black/white" thing. Hypothetically, at what number of games missed would you hesitate to give Russ the MVP? Suppose he averaged a triple-double and broke the 42 total triple-double record but did in only 58 games played? You'd probably question it, right? 70 games played or more ... you'd probably give it to him (guessing). There are always grey areas.
I'm not saying what a player did is less relevant than that player's "true ability," just that for All-NBA teams I think the latter should be factored into the equation. (Nate Duncan and Danny LeRoux basically said as much in their most recent Dunk'd On podcast). Isaiah Thomas is kind of a good example for me: is he more deserving of the 2017 MVP than Curry or Paul? Sure. Should he be ahead of Curry and Paul on the All-NBA teams? Not so sure.
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I've never seen this before... Minnesota is currently trailing 86-85 vs the Lakers with 8:55 left. Only 4 players have scored for Minnesota. KAT has 33, Wiggins has 34. Dieng has 12 and Muhammad has 6.
Cleveland was up 9, with the ball, with just over 2:00 left in the 4th quarter. Their next possessions: missed 3-pointer (Smith), [Millsap dunk, lead down to 7], missed turnaround fadeaway (Irving), [2 foul shots, lead down to 5], made layup by Irving, Muscala 3-pointer [lead down to 4], missed jumper (Irving), [missed 3-pointer], 5-second violation after Atlanta fouls, [1-of-2 foul shots on LeBron's 4th foul, lead down to 3], 2 foul shots by Irving, [3 foul shots by Millsap after LeBron's 5th foul, lead down to 2], Bazemore ties up Irving and wins the jump ball, [baseline jumper by Millsap].
On Wednesday night, Toronto is at Cleveland for the season finale. Toronto can finish no worse than 3rd in the conference (they win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Wizards).
You could easily have an ugly situation with either or both teams trying to dump the game. Imagine if Cleveland has not clinched the #1 spot (so they are tied with or a game behind Boston) and Boston has clinched at least the #2 spot by winning tonight. If Cleveland loses on Wednesday, they could set up a second-round matchup against Toronto instead of Washington. On the other hand, Toronto might try to try to set up a second-round matchup against Boston instead of Cleveland.
I feel you're really overthinking the importance of a 1-seed or the matchup difference between Toronto and Washington for the Cavaliers while having home court regardless against either. I expect some starters to sit tonight and maybe both games. I don't recall teams ever going balls to the wall at the end of the regular season for seeding purposes......that seems kinda silly to me. The priority at this point of the season should be on health and mental preparation......the small chance that home court matters in a 7th game against Boston a couple rounds down the road shouldn't even be on Lue's mind right now and I don't expect it to be.
I'd amend that to "impact on his team's success *or failure.*"
Of course, that's pretty much the same as saying: Westbrook's usage rate is historically off the charts. If you're just talking about impact on team success, I think you could pretty easily argue that LeBron, Curry or CP3 have a more positive impact on their teams. Russ's teams not been anywhere near as dominant with him on the floor as the other teams, and his net impact (on the floor v. on the bench) is significantly less positive than that of the other guys as well. He's also not any more positively impactful relative to his top teammates than the other guys are.
2016-17 On-Off
Russ: +4.1 on court / +12.5 net (Oladipo +8.2, Roberson +7.6, Adams +7.5)
Steph: +16.3 on court / +17.0 net (Green +12.5, Thompson +7.4, Durant +6.2)
LeBron: +8.9 on court / +17.5 net (Love +9.1, Irving +6.4, Thompson +0.2)
CP3: +13.5 on court / +19.3 net (Jordan +14.5, Griffin +11.9, Redick +10.8)
I'd probably also add (more anecdotally) that the other three guys make their teammates better than Russ does.
Curry spent half this year coasting while Durant led the team, please stop putting him in this company for this (regular) season. Last year he deserved to be the unanimous MVP, this year he is a notch below the top four even with his late season charge.
Isn't it easier to make your teammates better when they are in fact already good teammates? If we are pikcing teammates in a draft, OKC trio is going at the tail end of that draft.
Exactly, I was just about to post this in different words. There isn't anything any player in the history of the game could do to make Andre Roberson anything but a black hole on offense.
For sure. That "making teammates better" part was anecdotal. The other part stands: we can look at the actual on-off numbers to see how much better a player has made his team when he's been on the floor, and Westbrook is not actually best in the league in that regard. Again, I'm not saying that's the be-all, or that Russ is not amazing player and deserving MVP.
Right, but it's not in a vacuum. If Draymond Green didn't exist, Curry's numbers would look a lot worse, etc, etc. Westbrook gets zero help on the offensive end except for Kanter's one man bull show off the bench, he can't even really take possessions off.
I don't even think Westbrook and Curry are comparable players. Curry plays on a team with three other Top 30 players; Westbrook doesn't even play with one Top 50 player; maybe Adams and if so his contributions are mainly on the defensive end. If they swapped teams both of their performances this season would look radically different. My unscientific assessment is that Westbrook is better at every basic aspect of basketball except shooting and efficiency. Now, those are two really big advantages for Curry so the question is if those would offset Westbrooks advantages in inside scoring, getting to the line, passing, defense, rebounding, versatility and durability.
This season Westbrook has been the best player in the NBA; even better than LeBron. That doesn't mean if we were drafting teams I would pick him number one overall, but no player has sustained a higher level of excellence over the course of the season.
This season Westbrook has been the best player in the NBA; even better than LeBron. That doesn't mean if we were drafting teams I would pick him number one overall, but no player has sustained a higher level of excellence over the course of the season.
Exactly, this sums it up well.
Personally I've always thought it quite silly that the MVP is chosen after the regular season when most or all of the best players are saving their best for the playoffs, but since it is, it is pretty clearly Westbrook, with some combo of Harden/Kawhi/LBJ in 2-4. If I was picking a team for the playoffs, I'd pick LBJ or Kawhi first, but again I don't think that's really relevant.
You could call it "coasting," or deferring a bit for the good of the team. A lot of people had questions coming onto the season about the team chemistry and ability to blend so many stars with "only one ball." The track record of NBA "Superteams" has not been good, especially in their first year (I mean, look at Derrick Rose's superteam!
) Whatever Curry's contribution and role in this year's team relative to Green, Durant, Kerr, Iguodala, Thompson et al., he's been the best player and straw that stirs the drink on arguably the best regular-season team of all time (significantly better than last year's team by net rating). That's not chopped liver.I mean, when Curry won MVP two years ago, one of the big arguments in his favor was "how do you not give it to the best player on a such a historically good team. I mean, 67 wins??? WTF??? AND he shattered the all-time record for threes with 286??? That's insane! MVP!!!" So now he's been the best player on a 67-68-win team that has crushed that one in net rating, with 313 threes made and counting, and equal or better stats across the board than in 2014-15 ... and crickets.
To be clear: I'm not saying and have not said that he's the most deserving MVP candidate. As others here have noted, this has just been an anomalously great year for crazy-good individual performances. I'd agree that he's a notch below the Big 4, and maybe #6 behind IT. But I also think it's silly to deny that there's been a fair measure of the same "disqualified due to boredom" factor working against him that has boned LeBron and Jordan on several occasions.
You can call it whatever you want, and I'm not criticizing it. The point is that Westbrook couldn't do that, ever.
I thought it was pretty clear that Durant was their best player for the first half of the season, and the other hardcore GS fan I know always calls Draymond the team's MVP. So it's arguable that currently he is the third most valuable player on (to) his own team, which again is just a tribute to how damn good the core of that team is. If they stay healthy in the playoffs this year, I don't think anyone will seriously challenge them, they could win it all losing only 2-3 games along the way, I think.
Basically agreed... but then you went and compared them! ("My unscientific assessment Westbrook is better at every basic aspect of basketball except shooting and efficiency.") My unscientific assessment (backed by a few advanced stats like RPM, etc.) is that Curry is a slightly better offensive player and a slightly better defensive player than Westbrook in terms of adding wins to his team. People think Russ is good on D cos he looks like he should be — great body, great game face — but the stats have never borne that out, especially now with him selling out on defense by chasing uncontested rebounds instead of contesting shots (where he's currently worst in the NBA).
I think — but obviously cannot prove — that the Warriors would be a bit worse with Westbrook in place of Curry, and that the Thunder would be a bit better with Curry in place of Westbrook. I suspect Oladipo in particular could really flourish much more than he has with Curry's ability to play off ball, but that's a specific instance. (Klay on the other hand could be a fantastic fit with Westbrook).
This whole discussion is Exhibit 937 in how criminally underrated Chris Paul is. That's not to say he's a serious MVP candid this year, mostly because he missed too much time, but he belongs in the conversation despite that missed time because his impact on his team remains as large as any other player in the league.
It wasn't that clear, though. Curry was always significantly ahead of KD in terms of his positive impact on the scoreboard (though some of that was certainly Durant playing more with the bench units).
That is trickier. It is really, really hard to decontextualize Curry's greatness from Green's — with his ability to lock down all five positions on D play point forward on offense. And vice versa, since Draymond's biggest weakness — shooting — is Steph's (and Klay's) biggest strength. But I also think that kind of synergy is one of the things that makes hoops mysterious and beautiful, and one of the reasons parsing out individual impact (for awards like MVP, e.g.) is kind of a fool's errand.
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Dude, look upthread a bit! I called him "one of the two greatest small players of all-time" (with Curry) and posted his raw on-off numbers, which (as you note) are better than those of anyone in this discussion.
His on/off numbers are great, problem is he's usually off the court too much. If their top 4 are healthy, Clippers could be dangerous in the playoffs.
Poor RW - it's just too bad he's had to spend his career playing with non top-50 players.
Russ worked with pretty much raw material on the Thunder this year. Sabonis, Alex Abrines, and Jerami Grant were newbies to the Thunder, and he helped them develop some much-needed confidence on the Thunder. It wasn't always pretty, but I loved the fact that Billy Donovan experimented with various line-ups and saw what worked, and often what didn't. After all, Russ achieved his 42nd triple double with Kyle Singler (human white flag) on the floor for 20+ minutes. It was as though Donavan gave Russ a challenge: get a triple double with Singler on the floor! Consider the Warriors blessed and leave it at that.
You were the one that pointed out that Curry plays with three other top 50 players and Westbrook doesn't, at least for this season.
RW is a freak; he's had a great season and no one plays harder than he does. But to say "My unscientific assessment is that Westbrook is better at every basic aspect of basketball except shooting and efficiency" kind of misses the point. There's a huge skill to being able to fit one's talents into a team dynamic and that skill is something that Curry has demonstrated this season.
I'm talking about RW this season, not in any other. How he played with Durant is irrelevant to the type of player he has been this season.
As we speak, an NBA basketball court in Oregon is being shared by four Boston kids at once. Vonleh, Napier, Connaughton, and Layman all on the floor for the Blazers. Cool to see.
Curry finishes the season with a plus-minus of 1,015.
Draymond #2 in the NBA at 819.
Highest non-Warrior is Chris Paul at 576, followed by LeBron at 497. Harden 405, Westbrook 254.
SInce 2014, Curry (and co.) are 35-4 against Westbrook, Harden and CP3.
Draymond #2 in the NBA at 819.
Highest non-Warrior is Chris Paul at 576, followed by LeBron at 497. Harden 405, Westbrook 254.
SInce 2014, Curry (and co.) are 35-4 against Westbrook, Harden and CP3.
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Walter Taveras made his season debut for Cleveland tonight in Game 82. I've posted about Taveras before because I find his story fascinating. He didn't play basketball until he was 17 and was spotted by a German tourist who saw a 7 foot teenager working as a doorman at his family's retail store in Cape Verde. He had 10 boards in six blocks in the second half tonight against Toronto's scrubs. The chances he has an impact in the playoffs is minimal but it's cool that he has even made it this far.
See I would miss shit like this if it wasn't for you and others in this thread. From Cape Verde to the 'Land. That really doesn't happen in any other pro sports...
Cleveland has team options for each of the next two seasons on Taveras which could be a major bargain for them. These multiple year discounted deals have transitioned from being used almost exclusively on 2nd round draft picks to veteran players in the hopes that it pans out.....it gives the player a job with some security at a time when they don't have much leverage since nobody is willing to sign them at that cost. The Pacers may have the leagues best contract these next couple years if things continue to go right with Lance Stephenson who has been their catalyst off the bench in winning out over their last 5 games, he's putting up 7/4/4 in a key role after Bird signed him to a 3/$12m deal.
Jameer Nelson missed some time due to injury. In those 6 games, Gary Harris averaged 5.8 assists, Jamal Murray 5.0 and Jokic 5.8. According to ESPN, Jameer Nelson isn't expected to be back and Jamal Murray is going to be the Nuggets starting PG going into 17/18. I'm not sure if that's right because Nelson appears to be signed for one more year. Add another lottery talent to Jokic, Harris, Murray, Hernangomez, Mudiay... so much talent on that team.
Benjamin Morris at 538 does a much better job than I did at articulating the case for Curry as MVP: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-case-for-stephen-curry-mvp/?addata=espn:frontpage
Again, I'm fine with any of the big four MVP candidates getting it, but there is a also case for Curry, depending on your criteria. Morris posits that Curry, far from coasting on his elite team, is even better if you adjust for the Warriors' strength. His estimated wins added to a .500 team...
Stephen Curry 22.0
Draymond Green 20.1
LeBron James 16.4
Kawhi Leonard 15.0
James Harden 14.3
Rudy Gobert 13.8
Russell Westbrook 13.1
Chris Paul 12.6
Jimmy Butler 12.1
Anthony Davis 8.3
Plus a couple pretty pix to ponder...
Again, I'm fine with any of the big four MVP candidates getting it, but there is a also case for Curry, depending on your criteria. Morris posits that Curry, far from coasting on his elite team, is even better if you adjust for the Warriors' strength. His estimated wins added to a .500 team...
Stephen Curry 22.0
Draymond Green 20.1
LeBron James 16.4
Kawhi Leonard 15.0
James Harden 14.3
Rudy Gobert 13.8
Russell Westbrook 13.1
Chris Paul 12.6
Jimmy Butler 12.1
Anthony Davis 8.3
Plus a couple pretty pix to ponder...
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Blake added a 3 point shot too. First 31 games this year, he was 5-24 from 3 point range. The .78 attempts per game at that point was a career high. His prior career high was .55 attempts per game in 13-14.
Then, for some reason, from 2/6/17 until end of season... 30 games, 33-89 .371 from 3. He jumped from less than 1 attempt a game to 3. His rebounding went from 8.7 to 7.6 (2.6 oreb to 1.6 oreb) in the process. Playing alongside Jordan, this is a pretty huge deal.
I'm used to seeing huge jumps in 3PA from year to year but not mid season.
I think the Clips have a legit case as the best non-Warriors team in the playoffs, or at least in the convo with SA, Houston, Utah and Cleveland. They have better defense than the Cavs or Rockets, better top-end talent than the Jazz or Spurs (which matters in the playoffs when rotations tend to shorten), and the most continuity of any of the contenders. And they're getting healthy and hot at the right time.
Keep the faith, El Uno!
Keep the faith, El Uno!
Thanks. The problem is that juggernaut of an ass kicking sitting in the 2nd round. If it were in the WCF, I could lie to myself about momentum or some bs for a puncher's chance. But with it being so soon, I think it's going to be short and brutal with a lot of people gone and fired after.
Not to harp on it too much but their recent stretch really sold me on the scheduling problems. They played something like 20 games in a month and change with no time to practice. When they were finally able to breathe and get reorganized you could see the rhythm getting back between the starters.
The Blake thing is weird, someone either got to him or he finally started getting it. He's not a bad shooter either so it should improve with time
Clips are my dark horse pick to upset the Warriors. Big believer in Chris Paul when he's healthy.
If the Clippers made the WCF they would have beaten the Ws (or Blazers) in the second round, so you'd be able to watch! Clips-Spurs or Clips-Rockets in the WCF would both be very intriguing, evenly-matched series.
I mean, the Ws have beaten them ten straight, many of them total beatdowns, and most (or all?) of them with CP3 healthy.
At the same time, the Hoops Gods tend not look favorably upon things like ten-game streaks (or 73-win seasons, etc.), so you know they'd arrange for the Clips to win at least a game or two.
In basketball terms: the Clips Big Four + Wing Player X may be the best non-Warrior unit in the playoffs, but as a team I just don't think they match up that well with the Warriors. Curry + Green negate (ands generally outplay) CP3 + Blake; DJ doesn't do enough offensively to really hurt you; and then you're left with the Warriors' collection of long, talented, versatile two-way wing/forwards (Durant-Thompson-Iguodala-Livingston-MBarnes) going against guys like Redick, Crawford, LMAM, Rivers, and Paul Pierce.
And: Kerr typically outcoaches Doc.
