2017-18 NBA Regular Season Game/Observation Thread

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Cavs defense hasn't gotten any better since the trade. George Hill looks the same as he did in Sacramento.
Watch out, HRB's head is already severely bruised!

In all seriousness, HRB and others are correct in that any rotation that doesn't include IT is going to be an upgrade vs a team with IT on the floor. So in that sense, Cleveland clearly upgraded their defense. Furthermore, though its a miniscule sample size, the Cavs D-rating has, in fact, improved since the trade deadline. And as Ed notes, Philly is no slouch team. Finally, integrating their new pieces into working rotations will take more than a handful of games.

That said, yes, it was premature to call the Cavs fixed and to anoint them the top team in the East again. LeBron has to work harder on each end, and with ever increasing milage, than he has in years past because Cleveland has no clear second option. Hill can still stroke it but he isn't consistent enough to depend on night in and night out. And the rest of the guys are equally streaky. As such, I will say it - the Cavs may not make it out of the second round, let alone the ECF, depending on who they draw. They really are beatable and a team like Toronto, Milwaukee or Philly are going to put them to the test.

Unfortunately I don't see the Celtics beating them in a seven game series but that is more a function of them not having another dependable scorer as well.
 

ElUno20

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Remember, the Cavs almost never practice during the regular season so turning over their team mid-season has basically led to their entire team having to learn on the fly how to play with each other. They are younger, and more athletic and have more shooting; but they haven’t had hardly anytime to gel as a team.
Some of these losses recently (wiz and Philly tonight), you can see how badly they miss Love. Hood is not a very good shooter and he looks shook as hell down the stretch. I'm sure Lebron would rather be finding KL than him.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sixers are really scary. They're the six seed but they're only 2.5 behind Cleveland. They look like a top four team in the east to me.
Now imagine the Sixers adding the following next year:

1. 2018 top 10-12 lotto pick
2. Max FA (LeBron? Gulp)
3. “Fixed” Fultz

Or

1. Embiid/Simmons/Tatum
2. Max FA
3. 2018 Lakers/2019 Kings picks

Yikes.
 

Buster Olney the Lonely

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Now imagine the Sixers adding the following next year:

1. 2018 top 10-12 lotto pick
2. Max FA (LeBron? Gulp)
3. “Fixed” Fultz

Or

1. Embiid/Simmons/Tatum
2. Max FA
3. 2018 Lakers/2019 Kings picks

Yikes.
Yeah they only have $70.5M committed to next year's cap, which is fifth lowest behind the Lakers, Bulls, Mavs and Hawks. And they only have Redick and Amir coming off the books. Crazy. The Lakers and Sixers are going to run the off season.

This page is kind of fun to play with:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/

The team in the worst shape cap-wise for 2018-19? The Heat.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The problem for the Sixers is that LeBron aside, George is the only other FA worth going after.

Regardless, all of this chatter around LeBron to Philly is only going to ensure that Magic and Pelinka do all they can to set the table for him. George will have his contract waiting and the Lakers may look to trade a package of assets for Klutch Sports client and forgotten 'Zard John Wall.

In the meantime, someone is using social media to either get a future date or simply troll everyone.

 

Kliq

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I wouldn't call Tristan Thompson one of the best to ever play the game but YMMV.
 

DJnVa

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JR Smith's suspension last night was for...throwing soup at an assistant coach.
 

Kliq

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I mean, that looks awesome af but 99 times out of 100 it hits his teammates legs and goes rolling down court.
I felt the same way about Curry's behind-the-back dribble around the Clippers, followed by a 30 foot jumper fading away that was shown a billion times a few years ago. Yeah it was dope to watch in real time but a lucky dribbling move followed by a horrible shot that miraculously went doesn't impress me as much.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Cavs defense hasn't gotten any better since the trade. George Hill looks the same as he did in Sacramento.
This was kinda my point. Hill is the same player as he was in Sacramento......did anyone expect different? The result is Cleveland's defensive stats greatly mproving once Hill replaced Isaiah as well as their offensive number improving with Hill replacing Isaiah.

Cavs opponents w/Isaiah on floor: 122.9 pts/100 (offense 107), eFG 58.6%.

Cavs opponents w/Hill on floor: 110.3 pts/100 (offense 115.3), eFG 50.8%.
 

RedOctober3829

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This was kinda my point. Hill is the same player as he was in Sacramento......did anyone expect different? The result is Cleveland's defensive stats greatly mproving once Hill replaced Isaiah as well as their offensive number improving with Hill replacing Isaiah.

Cavs opponents w/Isaiah on floor: 122.9 pts/100 (offense 107), eFG 58.6%.

Cavs opponents w/Hill on floor: 110.3 pts/100 (offense 115.3), eFG 50.8%.
I didn't expect different. I remember discussing this before the trade deadline(maybe with you or could have been with DeJesus) and that his defensive rating was not good and I was shot down by people saying that he wasn't playing with any good players.

So they are giving up 110 points instead of 122. Is that going to get it done against playoff-level opponents? They may have upgraded from the worst defense in the league to still below-average.
 

Sam Ray Not

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NBA raw plus-minus leaders:

1. Curry, GS +465
2. Harden, HOU +432
3. Thompson, GS +431
5. Gordon, HOU +400
4. Paul, HOU +395
6. Durant, GS +390

285 other players

292. James, CLE -13

Just to be clear: I am saying that LeBron is the 292nd best player in the league. :p
 

JakeRae

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This was kinda my point. Hill is the same player as he was in Sacramento......did anyone expect different? The result is Cleveland's defensive stats greatly mproving once Hill replaced Isaiah as well as their offensive number improving with Hill replacing Isaiah.

Cavs opponents w/Isaiah on floor: 122.9 pts/100 (offense 107), eFG 58.6%.

Cavs opponents w/Hill on floor: 110.3 pts/100 (offense 115.3), eFG 50.8%.
The point was, and remains, a straw man. IT wasn't back to game form at the time of the trade. Of course the team would improve by trading him relative to how they played with him. But the relevant question was, and remains, if they are better than they would be if they let IT play himself back into shape. It's too early to answer that question definitively, but I'd lean toward picking IT over Hill.

Hill looks every bit as washed up in Cleveland as he did in Sacramento. On the other hand, IT seems to be recovering some of his offensive skills, which makes sense, because he is still playing his way into game shape. If IT plateaus offensively and stays awful defensively, the trade is a wash. If IT gets himself back to, say, his 2016 form on offense, Cleveland looks to have only succeeded at, again, trading down at the PG position.
 

LondonSox

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Is the general assumption that Joel Embiid is the current frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year?

Gobert and Whiteside are #1-2 in DRPM (among players with > 25 mpg; David West is crazily #1 among all players), but Embiid's right behind them, with major glamour points on his side. Also: Philly's surprisingly excellent defensive rating (102.9 pts allowed per 100, #4 in the league) is better than Utah's or Miami's.

Any other candidates? There was talk of Durant, but advanced stats don't love his D, and the Warriors have slightly underperformed on D this season. The Celtics should have a candidate, as the league's top D all season long, but they're so well-balanced it's hard to single out one guy.
I actually think he's just now getting into the conversation. He was not as good early as last year as he was playing into shape.
It's been all Durant etc. I think actually Robertson was pre injury. With Gobert not playing much he has a shot. His bounce is back recently and speed is up. But I think he's not yet a real contender. Could be by the end.

Sixers are a brutal matchup for the Cavs...BUT it's like the Sixers feel like they have so much talent they can't be bothered to run an offensive play.
This... Is a bad take. They take off in transition a lot and play at a high pace to take advantage of Ben. But they have plenty of good plays and have the best out of time out PPP.
The Redick embiid pnr with increasing weak side action is really fun. They don't run some traditional plays as Simmons running a standard one is not really worth it without any shooting threat.

Clarkson is a dick but Saric was also a dumbass to jam it with the game over. I dislike the latter a lot so this may be coloring my view.
I think this is a take from people who didn't watch the end of the game. The Cavs we're fouling and trapping. They tried to trap, the sixers passed out of it and then saric did a really basic dunk. Didn't celebrate or anything. If the team is playing defense, fouling and trapping then shut up man. Did he need to do it? No. But literally they only stopped playing defense as he got the ball and he didn't actually do anything crazy.
If they he Cavs weren't playing, it would be worse. But they refused. So I don't really get the issue. Esp given some of the sixers late collapses lol
 

The Needler

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I think this is a take from people who didn't watch the end of the game. The Cavs we're fouling and trapping. They tried to trap, the sixers passed out of it and then saric did a really basic dunk. Didn't celebrate or anything. If the team is playing defense, fouling and trapping then shut up man. Did he need to do it? No. But literally they only stopped playing defense as he got the ball and he didn't actually do anything crazy.
If they he Cavs weren't playing, it would be worse. But they refused. So I don't really get the issue. Esp given some of the sixers late collapses lol
I was watching the game and fully agree with this. What's more, if the Cavs wanted the game to end, they shouldn't have hustled down court on the possession before and had Rodney Hood dunk. If you want the other team to stop dunking, you should probably stop dunking and trying to steal the inbounds pass yourself.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I already asked this question earlier in the year, but what happened to Marquese Chriss? At least for the Suns sake, Bender and Jackson have looked better of late.


I also feel kinda bad for Austin Rivers. He's actually worked himself into an NBA player and have improved tenfold since when he entered the league. Granted he shouldn't be starting and playing 34 minutes a night but he'd be a decent 6th man.
 
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ElUno20

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I already asked this question earlier in the year, but what happened to Marquese Chriss? At least for the Suns sake, Bender and Jackson have looked better of late.


I also feel kinda bad for Austin Rivers. He's actually worked himself into an NBA player and have improved tenfold since when he entered the league. Granted he shouldn't be starting and playing 34 minutes a night but he'd be a decent 6th man.
6th man is really pushing it for Austin. Throw out all the stats, good or bad, at the end of the day he is a ball stopper. He dribbles a damn hole into the floor and it is a rhythm killer.

He's a guard from a different era really. He's in the iverson/rose category except incredibly less talented than them. You can't have guys like that leading a 1st or 2nd unit in 2018
 

Cesar Crespo

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6th man is really pushing it for Austin. Throw out all the stats, good or bad, at the end of the day he is a ball stopper. He dribbles a damn hole into the floor and it is a rhythm killer.

He's a guard from a different era really. He's in the iverson/rose category except incredibly less talented than them. You can't have guys like that leading a 1st or 2nd unit in 2018
I meant more so as a SG than a PG. Maybe 6th man is generous but he has a spot in the league as a 15-20 minute rotation guy.
 

benhogan

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This... Is a bad take. They take off in transition a lot and play at a high pace to take advantage of Ben. But they have plenty of good plays and have the best out of time out PPP.
The Redick embiid pnr with increasing weak side action is really fun. They don't run some traditional plays as Simmons running a standard one is not really worth it without any shooting threat.
It was a halftime observation from the 1st half of the game last night. Sixers were in complete control and their halfcourt offense looked a little stagnant/lethargic. They smothered the Cavs late, did the same to the Hornets tonight.

If they play the Cavs in the first round I think its a matchup nightmare for the Lebronettes. That series would be a coin toss, not sure Vegas would agree with me.

Good to see you back in the Cellar, maybe you'll be sporting a Lebron jersey next season :)
 

ElUno20

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I meant more so as a SG than a PG. Maybe 6th man is generous but he has a spot in the league as a 15-20 minute rotation guy.
Yeah 15-20 minutes as a backup SG maybe. I mean this as a compliment but Rivers best asset (and what will keep him in the league) is he's a dog. He will get after it and you need guys like that on your team. They just can't be one of the cornerstones of your team.
 

Gdiguy

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NBA raw plus-minus leaders:

1. Curry, GS +465
2. Harden, HOU +432
3. Thompson, GS +431
5. Gordon, HOU +400
4. Paul, HOU +395
6. Durant, GS +390

285 other players

292. James, CLE -13

Just to be clear: I am saying that LeBron is the 292nd best player in the league. :p
Yeah, something like +/- basically breaks when you play the minutes LeBron does - there's not enough useful reference points with him off the floor in non-garbage time to really get a useful value
 

Sam Ray Not

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Yeah, something like +/- basically breaks when you play the minutes LeBron does - there's not enough useful reference points with him off the floor in non-garbage time to really get a useful value
That's the just the raw plus-minus totals with those players on the floor (i.e. team points minus opponent points). The Cavs have been outscored by their opponents by 0.6 points per 100 possessions with LeBron on the floor this year.

Fwiw, with him off the floor, they've outscored their opponents by 1.6 points per 100 possessions. As you say, that's a small sample of mostly garbage time (probably as many games where the Cavs have been blown out as vice versa, lol) but it's not factored into his plus-minus total.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I already asked this question earlier in the year, but what happened to Marquese Chriss? At least for the Suns sake, Bender and Jackson have looked better of late.


I also feel kinda bad for Austin Rivers. He's actually worked himself into an NBA player and have improved tenfold since when he entered the league. Granted he shouldn't be starting and playing 34 minutes a night but he'd be a decent 6th man.
C'mon man. In Benders last 7 games he's putting up 4.7/5.1/2.0 in 28 mpg while shooting 30% from the field without even a double digit game. Last night he played 36 minutes and shot 0-1 from the field......the first NBA player since 2012 to play 36+ minutes while taking 1 or fewer FGA.
 

Cesar Crespo

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C'mon man. In Benders last 7 games he's putting up 4.7/5.1/2.0 in 28 mpg while shooting 30% from the field without even a double digit game. Last night he played 36 minutes and shot 0-1 from the field......the first NBA player since 2012 to play 36+ minutes while taking 1 or fewer FGA.
Last year, he looked like he'd wash out of the league in a year or two. Now, it looks like he might develop into something. Or not. He's going to sink or swim on his defense.
 

Fishy1

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Cavs do not appear to be much better for these trades yet. A lot of losses, and some of them haven't been close.
 

BigSoxFan

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Cleveland has given up 73 in first half tonight against Denver.
Really irritates me that LeBron + 4 SoSHers could still beat the Celtics in a series. But the trades clearly didn’t fix anything. The Eastern Conference is about as wide open as the 2018 AFC East!
 

LondonSox

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Really irritates me that LeBron + 4 SoSHers could still beat the Celtics in a series. But the trades clearly didn’t fix anything. The Eastern Conference is about as wide open as the 2018 AFC East!
It's really is
Raptors are better but their strength is the bench unit and will shorter rotations in the playoffs hurt this?
Celtics are also very very good. But without Hayward do they have the firepower?
Plus these two relatively minor questions both teams are neck neck so home court could matter
Cavs are nothing but questions.

What happens to the wizards when wall is back?

Are the sixers actually a threat

Can the bucks keep riding giannis until he dies

Then Miami is bad to me, pacers I have no idea, Pistons look dead.

But after the first round it could be very matchup driven. And frankly it's Toronto and Boston 1a and b but who freaking knows
 

HomeRunBaker

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Cleveland has given up 73 in first half tonight against Denver.
.......who finished up a win in Memphis 21 hours before tipoff plus losing another hour to the time zone on the flight. The Cavs looked like they hadn't ever seen a pick-n-roll before in that first half. They treated these dog day games as exhibitions last year before ramping it up in the playoffs so maybe this is a Tyronn thing which is a dangerous precedent.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Will the Spurs miss the Playoffs?
It's going to be difficult for Denver to pass them imo as they have 12 of their final 19 on the road where they struggle against anyone who gives a shit (Cleveland clearly didn't give a shit last night).
 

Sam Ray Not

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It's going to be difficult for Denver to pass them imo as they have 12 of their final 19 on the road where they struggle against anyone who gives a shit (Cleveland clearly didn't give a shit last night).
On the other hand, the Spurs have the toughest remaining schedule in the league by opponents’ winning percentage (56%) where the Nuggets are middle of the pack (50%).
 

HomeRunBaker

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On the other hand, the Spurs have the toughest remaining schedule in the league by opponents’ winning percentage (56%) where the Nuggets are middle of the pack (50%).
56% to 50% winning pct is very small, almost meaningless I'd argue.......while the Spurs play 11 at home where they are 22-8 compared to just 8 on the road where they are 14-19.

The 73% winning pct at home compared to 42% on the road spread far supersedes the 56 to 50% gap in opponents overall winning pct.
 

Sam Ray Not

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56% to 50% winning pct is very small, almost meaningless I'd argue.......while the Spurs play 11 at home where they are 22-8 compared to just 8 on the road where they are 14-19.

The 73% winning pct at home compared to 42% on the road spread far supersedes the 56 to 50% gap in opponents overall winning pct.
Except that the 56% applies to the entire remaining schedule, whereas the 73% applies to just three games — and may not be that predictive to begin with, since home teams in the NBA typically win more like ~55% of their games. (Last season, the Spurs were 31-10 at home and 30-11 on the road.)

I mean, it's not really an apples-to-apples comparison; and you'd have to do a much more fine-grained analysis of all the games if you wanted to make a real prediction — including B2Bs, opponent B2Bs, tanking teams v. non-tanking teams, etc.

But just as a back-of-the-envelope general comparison, I think the disadvantage of a 56% opponents' winning percentage is significantly bigger than the advantage of playing 58% of your games at home.

Fwiw, 538, which I think does do a fine-grained anaylsis of each of the remaining games, has the Spurs and Nuggets both projected at 46-36.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/
 
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BigSoxFan

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56% to 50% winning pct is very small, almost meaningless I'd argue.......while the Spurs play 11 at home where they are 22-8 compared to just 8 on the road where they are 14-19.

The 73% winning pct at home compared to 42% on the road spread far supersedes the 56 to 50% gap in opponents overall winning pct.
Yup. They got hammered during their annual Feb rodeo road trip but they’ll take care of business at home. Wouldn’t mind seeing them fall to #7 to line up a series against Houston or Golden State.
 

chilidawg

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It's really is
Raptors are better but their strength is the bench unit and will shorter rotations in the playoffs hurt this?
Celtics are also very very good. But without Hayward do they have the firepower?
Plus these two relatively minor questions both teams are neck neck so home court could matter
Cavs are nothing but questions.

What happens to the wizards when wall is back?

Are the sixers actually a threat

Can the bucks keep riding giannis until he dies

Then Miami is bad to me, pacers I have no idea, Pistons look dead.

But after the first round it could be very matchup driven. And frankly it's Toronto and Boston 1a and b but who freaking knows
Celtics bench is much improved of late, which will really help against Toronto in particular. We have two games left with Toronto, probably will need to win both to have a shot at the top seed. Toronto has the best home record in the league, so it would be big to get the top seed.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Fwiw, 538, which I think does do a fine-grained anaylsis of each of the remaining games, has the Spurs and Nuggets both projected at 46-36.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/
Is this supposed to confirm my only point in that it will be difficult for the Nuggets to surpass the Spurs?

Using the Spurs road success last season WITH Kawhi to attempt to justify that their road struggles this season without him is a terrible position to get behind imo. They have been similarly good at home however even without Kawhi and the Nuggets have not been a good road team this year even worse than last season.
 
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