2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

BaseballJones

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Yeah, this has to be part of BB's calculus. Or that Butler shows up and plays hero ball. Maybe it would be counterproductive for Butler to do any of these things, but people don't always act rationally.

Im inclined to trust BB's judgment here.
I am too, for several reasons:

(1) We really have NO idea what's going on.

(2) We really have NO idea what Belichick really thinks of Butler, as a person and as it relates to the monetary value he puts on him as a football player (What dollar amount does BB think he's really worth? It's not good enough to say that he values him at $3.9 million because that's what he offered Butler; after all, he apparently values him at more than that if the stories of a 4/28 extension are true. But how much does he value Butler? Who knows?)

(3) Belichick, while hardly foolproof, has a long track record now of being better at this than anyone else in the league (or at least...he's really, really good at it), and often times he's made decisions that leave fans scratching our heads, but which work out in the end.

So it's hard to not trust BB's judgment, even if he ends up making a deal that makes us as fans say, "WHAT!?!?"
 

lexrageorge

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Granted, while there is a lot we do not know about the negotiations, how Belichick views Butler, etc., there are some things we do know:

The Pats did think highly enough of Butler to offer him the first round tender. If Belichick really wanted to deal him for a 4th round draft pick, he could have simply offered a lower tender; the Pats still would have retained the right to match if it came to that. By offering Butler the first round tender, Belichick knew that there would be a high likelihood that Butler would have to settle for playing for $3.9M.

Also, there is no sense of urgency for the Pats to do anything here. There is still about a month for teams to sign RFA's subject to draft pick compensation. We may just need to see this play out some more.
 

sezwho

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Also, there is no sense of urgency for the Pats to do anything here. There is still about a month for teams to sign RFA's subject to draft pick compensation. We may just need to see this play out some more.
Yes, definitely this.

There are three clear options, as has been observed:
1) Butler accepts tender and plays, hoping to be a UFA next season and even if Garropolo situation is resolved the worst outcome (except serious injury) is a franchise tag.
2)New team gives Butler a huge offer, BB passes and pockets first round pick.
3)New team values 1st round pick at high level, gives correspondingly low offer to Butler, which BB matches and we keep a discounted player on long term deal.

The reason he needed to sign Gilmore is that the outcome of the above three options is not in Bills control, and is in fact wholly dependent upon how the other teams value the combination of Butlers ability and the loss of their pick. To avoid a situation where time wasn't on his side he needed to regain leverage by dipping into in the FA market.
 

InstaFace

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This is as good a place as any to remind the doubters of how good Malcolm Butler is:


He got his nickname Strap because in practice in 2014, he was continually strapped to his WR's hip. He's done an absolutely epic job against some of the league's best receivers. I would be upset to lose his talent on the roster without getting equivalent value in return, and I'm not even sure the #11 could promise that (well, maybe "value" in a "production minus salary" sense, but not in an absolute-production sense).
 

Curt S Loew

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Yes, definitely this.

There are three clear options, as has been observed:
1) Butler accepts tender and plays, hoping to be a UFA next season and even if Garropolo situation is resolved the worst outcome (except serious injury) is a franchise tag.
2)New team gives Butler a huge offer, BB passes and pockets first round pick.
3)New team values 1st round pick at high level, gives correspondingly low offer to Butler, which BB matches and we keep a discounted player on long term deal.

The reason he needed to sign Gilmore is that the outcome of the above three options is not in Bills control, and is in fact wholly dependent upon how the other teams value the combination of Butlers ability and the loss of their pick. To avoid a situation where time wasn't on his side he needed to regain leverage by dipping into in the FA market.
So why would they bother? This would also require Butler to sign a low offer, which won't happen.
 

Stitch01

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Granted, while there is a lot we do not know about the negotiations, how Belichick views Butler, etc., there are some things we do know:

The Pats did think highly enough of Butler to offer him the first round tender. If Belichick really wanted to deal him for a 4th round draft pick, he could have simply offered a lower tender; the Pats still would have retained the right to match if it came to that. By offering Butler the first round tender, Belichick knew that there would be a high likelihood that Butler would have to settle for playing for $3.9M.

Also, there is no sense of urgency for the Pats to do anything here. There is still about a month for teams to sign RFA's subject to draft pick compensation. We may just need to see this play out some more.
He's almost certainly not getting traded for a 4th round pick. No one thinks that.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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in practice in 2014, he was continually strapped to his WR's hip. He's done an absolutely epic job against some of the league's best receivers. I would be upset to lose his talent on the roster without getting equivalent value in return, and I'm not even sure the #11 could promise that (well, maybe "value" in a "production minus salary" sense, but not in an absolute-production sense).
Thanks for the video. Really enjoyed it.

As much as I'd love to keep Butler, BB seems to be in the Seymour/Jones/Collins/Branch mode. All great contributors with upcoming contract issues.

We all know that a series of moves BB makes often end up with not just 1 but multiple starters down the road. I have to trust The Process and wish Butler all the luck in the world elsewhere, if he's not going to be extended in NE.
 

sezwho

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So why would they bother? This would also require Butler to sign a low offer, which won't happen.
Fair question - I think the answer is because the 'discount' may be large but not be enough to discourage Butler from signing. For example, the Browns/Donkeys trade just provided an example of the value of a second round pick to be ~$16M. Lots of variables of course, in that not all teams may agree, and perhaps Osweiler has some residual value. However, we are talking about a 1st rounder here, so for the sake of argument lets call it $20M in excess value. If Butler is worth the same contract as Gilmore at 5/65 with 40 guaranteed as a UFA, but we deduct the value of the 1st round pick we might end up with a 5/45 w/ 30 guaranteed. Not quite the $10m+/yr Butler and the agent want but a damn sight more than Howe reported of 4/28. I think they would sign the deal, and Bill would get the pick. Perhaps thats more quant-centric than most NFL front offices are, but thats changing quickly and I never forget that BB was an econ major as Wesleyan.
 

lexrageorge

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He's almost certainly not getting traded for a 4th round pick. No one thinks that.
I've seen at least one poster speculating about a 3rd and a 2018 4th (or vice versa). Not sure why the Pats would settle for that type of return; they wouldn't have offered the first round tender if they were willing to do that.
 

InstaFace

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As much as I'd love to keep Butler, BB seems to be in the Seymour/Jones/Collins/Branch mode. All great contributors with upcoming contract issues.
Well, to be fair, he has also recently been in Hightower and Harmon mode, and despite being an RFA, Butler is not that far removed from their situations. He's not late-career like Seymour, where BB would bet on a downturn in ability level, he's not going to be overvalued by the market like Jones, he's not a misfit for BB's system like Collins... and I'd assume Branch is a mistake BB wouldn't repeat if he could go back and do it again.
 

Curt S Loew

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Fair question - I think the answer is because the 'discount' may be large but not be enough to discourage Butler from signing. For example, the Browns/Donkeys trade just provided an example of the value of a second round pick to be ~$16M. Lots of variables of course, in that not all teams may agree, and perhaps Osweiler has some residual value. However, we are talking about a 1st rounder here, so for the sake of argument lets call it $20M in excess value. If Butler is worth the same contract as Gilmore at 5/65 with 40 guaranteed as a UFA, but we deduct the value of the 1st round pick we might end up with a 5/45 w/ 30 guaranteed. Not quite the $10m+/yr Butler and the agent want but a damn sight more than Howe reported of 4/28. I think they would sign the deal, and Bill would get the pick. Perhaps thats more quant-centric than most NFL front offices are, but thats changing quickly and I never forget that BB was an econ major as Wesleyan.
Yes, but i responding to your statement of "gives correspondingly low offer to Butler, which BB matches and we keep a discounted player on long term deal."

That would be great, but I don't see any scenario where that could happen.
 

TheoShmeo

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Thanks for the video. Really enjoyed it.

As much as I'd love to keep Butler, BB seems to be in the Seymour/Jones/Collins/Branch mode. All great contributors with upcoming contract issues.

We all know that a series of moves BB makes often end up with not just 1 but multiple starters down the road. I have to trust The Process and wish Butler all the luck in the world elsewhere, if he's not going to be extended in NE.
That's probably right but one odd thing about Butler is his proximity to Collins and Jones time-wise, not to mention Ryan.

Prior trades or impasses with young players seemed to happen on their own. Milloy, Branch and Seymour were all notable and surprising when they happened but they all were isolated from the departures of other younger star players. One could counter that Branch happened at the same time as Givens but the latter was not of the same magnitude.

I think that the grouping element is one of the most surprising aspects of the Butler episode. And that many of us thought that once they said goodbye to Jones and Collins, it meant they were choosing Hightower and Butler. Or at least suspected as much.
 

Stitch01

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I've seen at least one poster speculating about a 3rd and a 2018 4th (or vice versa). Not sure why the Pats would settle for that type of return; they wouldn't have offered the first round tender if they were willing to do that.
I said the Saints 2nd and a 4th which comes out to a high second round pick value wise. If BB feels the situation isnt reconcilable I could see them landing there.

That's much different than a 4th round pick and it still makes sense to offer the 1st round tender for leverage.

Well, to be fair, he has also recently been in Hightower and Harmon mode, and despite being an RFA, Butler is not that far removed from their situations. He's not late-career like Seymour, where BB would bet on a downturn in ability level, he's not going to be overvalued by the market like Jones, he's not a misfit for BB's system like Collins... and I'd assume Branch is a mistake BB wouldn't repeat if he could go back and do it again.

I think they handled Branch fine.
 

lexrageorge

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That's probably right but one odd thing about Butler is his proximity to Collins and Jones time-wise, not to mention Ryan.

Prior trades or impasses with young players seemed to happen on their own. Milloy, Branch and Seymour were all notable and surprising when they happened but they all were isolated from the departures of other younger star players. One could counter that Branch happened at the same time as Givens but the latter was not of the same magnitude.

I think that the grouping element is one of the most surprising aspects of the Butler episode. And that many of us thought that once they said goodbye to Jones and Collins, it meant they were choosing Hightower and Butler. Or at least suspected as much.
I'm not sure there's anything odd about the grouping, other than that the players all had their contracts end the same time. Butler was offered an extension last year and turned it down. And the request from Butler's agent to treat him as a UFA was so outrageous that it did not merit a response.

I'm sure if Butler's agent called and asked for an audience to discuss an extension, the Pats would take the call.

I said the Saints 2nd and a 4th which comes out to a high second round pick value wise. If BB feels the situation isnt reconcilable I could see them landing there.

That's much different than a 4th round pick and it still makes sense to offer the 1st round tender for leverage.
Agreed on those points. Also agree that it's difficult to predict where this will end up, as there's still a lot of moving parts.
 

sezwho

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Yes, but i responding to your statement of "gives correspondingly low offer to Butler, which BB matches and we keep a discounted player on long term deal."

That would be great, but I don't see any scenario where that could happen.
Ok, lets say you accept the basic premise that Butler gets a Saints contract roughly equal to the UFA less the 1st round pick discount I'm hypothesizing. Do you think BB would match the 4/45 with 30m guaranteed? I think he might. I also think Butler might accept this offer, and now we are into a place where any of the outcomes could realistically materialize.

There are two very valuable assets in play which different teams may price differently: Butler and the pick. BB is poised to capitalize on what he would perceive as a mis-evaluation of either of these.

Perhaps I'm not understanding which scenario are you doubting could occur?
 

TheoShmeo

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I'm not sure there's anything odd about the grouping, other than that the players all had their contracts end the same time.
Maybe odd is not the best word.

It's unusual or unprecedented for the Pats to say goodbye to so many young stars in such proximity.

The notion that the Pats would choose to deal or not sign Jones, Collins and Ryan, and still not retain Butler, is an unexpected result in my view.

Can you even name one youngish star who they let go in the 2003 season other than Milloy?

That there are plausible and understandable explanations here doesn't make it any less unusual.

Oh, and that Butler-Beckham video was both great and mouth vomit inducing.
 

Curt S Loew

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Ok, lets say you accept the basic premise that Butler gets a Saints contract roughly equal to the UFA less the 1st round pick discount I'm hypothesizing. Do you think BB would match the 4/45 with 30m guaranteed? I think he might. I also think Butler might accept this offer, and now we are into a place where any of the outcomes could realistically materialize.

There are two very valuable assets in play which different teams may price differently: Butler and the pick. BB is poised to capitalize on what he would perceive as a mis-evaluation of either of these.

Perhaps I'm not understanding which scenario are you doubting could occur?
I guess I am doubting the Saints would offer and Butler would sign a "discounted" offer the Pats would match. I guess it really depends on the discount. I can see the scenario you described above happening, yes.
 

BigJimEd

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Yeah it really depends on the "discount".

A minor note but there is no 4th round tender. 1st, 2nd or no compensation.

Also, Seymour was 30 in his first season with Oakland.
 

sezwho

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I'm not sure how likely signing the discount contract is either, and it does clearly depend on the discount. Whatever ends up happening though, I'm super impressed with Bill's ability to put himself into the catbird seat such that all the outcomes favor him (even playing a year under the tender!). Its been maddening to listen to EEI/98.5 talk as though the Gilmore signing was some kind of Browns/Skins style splash the pot and win the offseason maneuver, when looking at it in the larger context of the Butler situation makes it look pretty darn sharp. #chessnotcheckers
 

Dick Drago

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This is as good a place as any to remind the doubters of how good Malcolm Butler is:


He got his nickname Strap because in practice in 2014, he was continually strapped to his WR's hip. He's done an absolutely epic job against some of the league's best receivers. I would be upset to lose his talent on the roster without getting equivalent value in return, and I'm not even sure the #11 could promise that (well, maybe "value" in a "production minus salary" sense, but not in an absolute-production sense).
Wow, thank you for posting that. Pretty amazing game.
 

Harry Hooper

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I said the Saints 2nd and a 4th which comes out to a high second round pick value wise. If BB feels the situation isnt reconcilable I could see them landing there.

That's much different than a 4th round pick and it still makes sense to offer the 1st round tender for leverage.

Well, to be fair, he has also recently been in Hightower and Harmon mode, and despite being an RFA, Butler is not that far removed from their situations. He's not late-career like Seymour, where BB would bet on a downturn in ability level, he's not going to be overvalued by the market like Jones, he's not a misfit for BB's system like Collins... and I'd assume Branch is a mistake BB wouldn't repeat if he could go back and do it again.

I think they handled Branch fine.

I don't see how you fail to view letting D. Branch's agent shop for a deal with AFC East teams as a clear mistake. Once the Jets got involved, it was a salvage operation for the Pats.
 
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InstaFace

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Sorry I was speaking of Deion, not Alan. Deion Branch, of course, signed with Seattle in the 05-06 offseason, and our WR corps in 2006 thus later on became an achilles heel of embarrassing proportions.
 

Van Everyman

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And we still came one defensive stop from making the Super Bowl. And then a year later we got Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth.

I'm still not convinced letting Branch go was a mistake.
 

InstaFace

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With Branch, we don't need that defensive stop. 18-point comebacks require failures by the offense as well as the defense. Go watch some Reche Caldwell targets if you're feeling nostalgic.

Regardless, even if you don't think it was a mistake, it's one of the very few BB decisions that's even arguable as to its outcome and wisdom in retrospect. Belichick was clearly correct with Seymour, Collins, and even Jones to a lesser degree given the FA contract he just fetched. Unless he truly is a malcontent, Butler is exactly the sort of player BB has tended to keep around, and I'd love to keep him on the team even at a price approaching full market value.
 

Stitch01

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And we still came one defensive stop from making the Super Bowl. And then a year later we got Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth.

I'm still not convinced letting Branch go was a mistake.
Yeah in a game where the offense scored a billion points. Branch was going to hold out until week 10. Branch's numbers in Seattle were pretty middling for his contract. The return was a first round pick.

This was the kind of "mistake" in player evaluation and contract negotiation that the Pats have built a dynasty around.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't see how you fail to view letting D. Branch's agent shop for a deal with AFC East teams as a clear mistake. Once the Jets got involved, it was a salvage operation for the Pats.
It's interesting to see the implications of that trade are still being felt today. Consider:

The pick the Pats got for trading Branch turned into Brandon Merriweather (insert partial "ugh" here).

However, that trade likely led to the Pats to trade their own first round pick to the 49'ers for a 2007 4th and 2008 1st. The 4th round pick was flipped for Randy Moss. Moss, in turn, was eventually flipped for the pick that became Ryan Mallett. Mallett has since turned into the 2017 4th round pick that the Pats got from Seattle, a pick that allowed the Pats to trade their own 4th rounder to the Dolts for Dwayne Allen. And thanks to the Cooks trade, that Seattle 4th rounder is still alive.

That 2008 1st rounder became pretty big news, as the Pats ended up with the 7th pick in that draft despite having to forfeit a first round pick. The Pats would end up moving down 3 spots and pick up Jerod Mayo and Shawn Crable. And, of course, the flunkies in the NFL office, feeling that the Pats manipulated the system in 2008 (not possible given the fact the Pats made the trade with the 49'ers long before Spygate), made sure the Pats would forfeit their highest available picks in the 1st and 4th rounds.

All because Branch wanted a couple of million dollars more in his extension.

EDIT: Forgot Devin Lucien, who I believe spent all of 2016 on the practice squad.
 
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sezwho

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Belichick was clearly correct with Seymour, Collins, and even Jones to a lesser degree given the FA contract he just fetched.
I'm not sure how you can be so confident of this. They won the Super Bowl without them of course, but Collins and Jones performance stories have yet to be written and I would rather have kept Seymour as he was a force for the Raiders for years, even signing an extension I think?

Losing the other Branch was devastating to the Pats (see the Reche Caldwell experience as was mentioned above).

BB is a football genius, and clearly learns and evolves, but the above is a bridge too far.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm not sure how you can be so confident of this. They won the Super Bowl without them of course, but Collins and Jones performance stories have yet to be written and I would rather have kept Seymour as he was a force for the Raiders for years, even signing an extension I think?

Losing the other Branch was devastating to the Pats (see the Reche Caldwell experience as was mentioned above).

BB is a football genius, and clearly learns and evolves, but the above is a bridge too far.
The Seymour trade netted the Pats Nate Solder, who's played a fairly understated role in the Pats most recent Super Bowl wins. Also there was zero guarantee that Seymour would have come back to New England once he became a UFA after the 2009 season; in fact, it seems very likely he would have left as UFA.

Jones has already turned into Thuney and Mitchell. And, to be complete, the player the Pats get in return for Collins hasn't been drafted yet.
 

sezwho

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Fair enough: once you account for the risk in potentially losing those players in FA for no more than a mid/low round compensatory pick then it becomes more apparent. I've been a Solder fan, and watching BB turn chicken blank into chicken salad with last years D sure indicates we could live without players who seemed so valuable to me. Perhaps I'm reacting to some of the other comments which seemed to diminish Seymour's skills or imply he was somehow over the hill when he left. I still would have tried to Godfather offer him though...he was a monster.
 

InstaFace

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Seymour was turning 30. He had one good season (2010) after he was dealt the previous year. He wanted to be paid like the first-team all-pro he was in 2003-2005, and some team was going to give him terms near that (and cross their fingers). BB got a first-round draft pick, #17, in exchange for his last season under contract, in a year where the team was going nowhere with him or without him. In terms of winning a trade, that deal was up there with BB's best draft trades.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Seems like the picture is of him on a private jet.

No idea what it means. My best interpretation is that he has reached an agreement with the Patriots in the sense that nothing has changed except the amount he's making.

But that's trying to read way too much into an ambiguous situation and a borderline incomprehensible instawhatsit.
 

MICHAELG63

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I am hopeful somehow he has signed an extension with us, but he is wearing a black shirt with a gold chain so at this point who knows??
 

Pandemonium67

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Finally got to rewatch SB51 last night. It was a German broadcast, so I think they might have shown different footage of the immediate post-game jubilation. I saw Malcolm bear-hugging BB and saying, "I love you, coach! I love you, coach!"

From an emotional viewpoint, I want MB and BB to fix whatever ails them and get a 4-year contract signed.

From a football viewpoint, I want MB, Gilmore and Rowe as our three CBs next season and beyond. The Pats' Achilles heel for several years was cornerback; making that position a long-term strength is tantalizingly close. C'mon, guys, get it done.
 

nattysez

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Seems like the picture is of him on a private jet.

No idea what it means. My best interpretation is that he has reached an agreement with the Patriots in the sense that nothing has changed except the amount he's making.

But that's trying to read way too much into an ambiguous situation and a borderline incomprehensible instawhatsit.
I agree on all counts.
 

tims4wins

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Seems like the picture is of him on a private jet.

No idea what it means. My best interpretation is that he has reached an agreement with the Patriots in the sense that nothing has changed except the amount he's making.

But that's trying to read way too much into an ambiguous situation and a borderline incomprehensible instawhatsit.
That's how I read it too
 

ZMart100

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The G550 windows that Kraft owns are circular. The Challenger 350 windows that Benson owns are more rectangular. Not that that means anything.