App. State is bowl-bound, and Samford and Miami are basically a toss-up. Sagarin has them rated 118 and 112 respectively. And Georgia will play an extra game against the SEC West Champ, so I think it would be a pretty weak argument.
2017 College Football Game Thread - Week 10
- Thread starter SoxJox
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Let me return to my main point, as it seems to be getting lost in a comparison of schedules: Unlike you, I don't think ND playing one less game than other possible playoff teams is problematic because their schedule, overall, is as strong as anyone else's in the country, and even if they don't have to play an extra game against a top team in the final week, they still play just as many games or more against top teams as the others because they don't schedule FCS teams or, for the most part, non-power 5 conference teams.
That's fine, but decisions don't get made in a vacuum, and there are often close calls to be made. And I think that when all things are otherwise equal (or close to it), it's fair to give the benefit of the doubt to the team that had to play an extra game at the end of a long season against the best team from the other division with a championship on the line.
Stanford has 3 losses and plays Washington this week (a game where they are about 8 point underdogs). It is very likely Standford has 4 losses when they play Notre Dame. I don't think beating a 7-5 Stanford team in a down year for the Pac12 does a lot to validate or raise Notre Dame's ranking.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but ND will play one less game because they don’t play in a conference and won’t have a conference championship. Again, I just like that one extra hurdle before playoff consideration.
You're right. I was looking at a Georgia schedule that didn't include their first game, and admitted my mistake. I should edit my post.
My main point, though, is that saying other teams, for example Georgia and Alabama, play 13 games while ND only plays 12 is a bit disingenuous given that most teams play an FCS team as part of their 13.
ND's top 12 games is as good or better than other teams, and their top 5/6 is even better. If ND were to play an extra game to get to 13 (and they can't do this based on rules), and that extra game was against a weak opponent like most schools schedule at least once, it wouldn't make me feel any better about their statues, but apparently others would feel better.
We seem to be taking as a given that ND will be a playoff team if it wins out, but I'm not 100% sure of that - if Clemson, Oklahoma and Wisconsin also all win out (unlikely, but possible), are we sure that the committee would rank ND ahead of two of those teams? (In this scenario I'm also assuming that Alabama and GA are undefeated headed into the SEC Champ game, in which case I imagine that both will end up in the playoff.)
Edited to add: For what it's worth (probably not much), 538's Playoff Predictor gives ND only a 26% chance of making the playoff in that scenario, but also gives the loser of the SEC Champ game almost no shot in that scenario, which I don't really agree with/don't think tracks how the committee will approach it.
Edited to add: For what it's worth (probably not much), 538's Playoff Predictor gives ND only a 26% chance of making the playoff in that scenario, but also gives the loser of the SEC Champ game almost no shot in that scenario, which I don't really agree with/don't think tracks how the committee will approach it.
Sox and Rocks said he felt like that. I'd agree with you - I think Wisconsin is in if it wins out, period. I'd guess Clemson is in over ND if both win out, though if Clemson scrapes by Miami while ND blows out the Canes, that might move the needle. ND seems to be ahead of Washington and probably Oklahoma/TCU.
As above, I think Georgia is actually better placed with a loss than Alabama is. It'd be tough to leave out Georgia in a head to head comparison with ND having won in South Bend and having the same number of losses.
No chance Wisconsin jumps ahead of ND, nor should they with their pathetic schedule.
Two teams would have to jump ND. Who are they, and what's their case?
ND plays 4 of the top 12 and has the best loss. No one can compete with that.
I agree with your latter point about Georgia/Alabama. As for the former, what makes you sure Wisconsin is in if they win out? I'm sure they won't be in without help based on their current ranking, weak schedule, and the committee chairman's comments tonight.
The frustrating part with Wisconsin is they actually had Washington and USF scheduled for this season, but they cancelled the Washington series and postponed the return game at USF. With Indiana, Illinois and Maryland on the conference schedule they didn't need to water down the non-conf. I guess if they go unbeaten they can get in but it's sucks to reward shitty scheduling.
(And the next two years too: 2018 BYU, WKU, New Mexico; 2019 at USF, Kent St, Central Michigan. Some of these have had good teams lately but no P5 and only one road game that I wouldn't be surprised if they cancel.)
(And the next two years too: 2018 BYU, WKU, New Mexico; 2019 at USF, Kent St, Central Michigan. Some of these have had good teams lately but no P5 and only one road game that I wouldn't be surprised if they cancel.)
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