2017 Cowboys: NoMo' Romo (or playoffs)

[Rudy's Curve]

Fade to Dez on 2nd and 1 from the 11 or whatever was completely braindead and stopped the clock.

You had to get a TD there and run the clock down as much as possible.

That wasn't a good call, but one of those is a lot more important than the other. I would've absolutely signed up for a TD with 1:13 left as a Cowboy fan. Sometimes the other guy is just insane, and it's bad defense to let anybody drive the length of the field with that amount of time and only one timeout.

 

[dcmissle]

Fade to Dez on 2nd and 1 from the 11 or whatever was completely braindead and stopped the clock.

You had to get a TD there and run the clock down as much as possible.

You can probably hang in this divisional race. And you can take satisfaction in the fact that a supposed do-things-the-right way owner -- who (again) used the NFL disciplinary process as a weapon against you -- is sitting at 0-5 and had three receivers go down today with ankles, OBJ probably for the year. Karma is a bitch (as Baltimore and Indy also learned).

Of course, this probably means the Giants may have their pick of Eli's potential successors.

 

[TFisNEXT]

The Williams tipped pass pick-six was the real killer aside from pathetic defense at the very end. If the Cowboys go on their drive without handing them the free six points 10 seconds earlier, they go up 9 points with under 2 min to play which would have ended the game.

It was a bit of bad luck...though Williams prob should have caught it.

Still, you need the defense to tackle in bounds on that final drive. They let GB get chunks out of bounds multiple times. That's inexcusable. The Cowboys finally played their game today and should have won. But they made one or two really critical errors.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Someone will jump all over him for not anticipating that Dak could bring that last carry into the end zone and/or not commanding Dak to fall down a foot short of the end zone.

Which is understandable -- but you really have to take the TD.

Huh? That is the hottest of takes. Maybe the hottest I've ever heard. Is anyone saying that?

 

[Oil Can Dan]

Ten bucks he goes with Mara.

 

[dcmissle]

Huh? That is the hottest of takes. Maybe the hottest I've ever heard. Is anyone saying that?

Danny White (color man) said as much on the national radio broadcast I was listening to in the 4th quarter. He was hugely critical of that pass play deep in GB territory for that reason. His bottom line -- cannot leave AR with a minute plus and a time out to close the game. Period, end of story.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Danny White (color man) said as much on the national radio broadcast I was listening to in the 4th quarter. He was hugely critical of that pass play deep in GB territory for that reason. His bottom line -- cannot leave AR with a minute plus and a time out to close the game. Period, end of story.

Yup. The hottest of takes. Dumb and stupid.

 

[dcmissle]

Yup. The hottest of takes. Dumb and stupid.

He argued that it was the smart move, but that players and coaches in the moment are too wired against it.

The problem is you cannot presume a TD even with 4 downs from the one foot line. We've seen this too many times.

 

[Stitch01]

It probably was better to fall down at the one and waste a down to eat the packers last timeout. The chances that Dallas team doesn't score from the one on three tried against the Packers d are lower than Rodgers driving the field. Trying to have the QB do that in the moment on a scramble is tricky though.

 

[dcmissle]

It probably was better to fall down at the one and waste a down to eat the packers last timeout. The chances that Dallas team doesn't score from the one on three tried against the Packers d are lower than Rodgers driving the field. Trying to have the QB do that in the moment on a scramble is tricky though.

That is very close to White's characterization. The problem being in the execution rather than the conception.

 

[TFisNEXT]

They left Rodgers with some time, but honestly, the D should be able to hold them to a FG attempt there...so overtime should have been the worst case scenario. The D fucked up royally by allowing them to get out of bounds multiple times when they only had the 1 T.O. left. If they tackle in bounds even just one of those times, GB is likely not nearly as close to the end zone at the end. Yeah it's Aaron Rodgers, but you can still force the plays to the middle much better than they did.

Dak falling at the 1 is pretty risky. I'd say the chances of getting called for a false start or holding penalty is probably higher there than allowing the TD to Rodgers. With the hindsight of GB actually scoring the TD, it's easy to MMQB the final Cowboys drive, but throwing on 2nd down and short instead of pounding the football was really the killer...it's what left GB with 1 time out....falling at the 1 yard line when you needed a TD is probably way more risk than is necessary.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

You absolutely have to take the points when you can get them there. No doubt about it.

 

[Stitch01]

They left Rodgers with some time, but honestly, the D should be able to hold them to a FG attempt there...so overtime should have been the worst case scenario. The D fucked up royally by allowing them to get out of bounds multiple times when they only had the 1 T.O. left. If they tackle in bounds even just one of those times, GB is likely not nearly as close to the end zone at the end. Yeah it's Aaron Rodgers, but you can still force the plays to the middle much better than they did.

Dak falling at the 1 is pretty risky. I'd say the chances of getting called for a false start or holding penalty is probably higher there than allowing the TD to Rodgers. With the hindsight of GB actually scoring the TD, it's easy to MMQB the final Cowboys drive, but throwing on 2nd down and short instead of pounding the football was really the killer...it's what left GB with 1 time out....falling at the 1 yard line when you needed a TD is probably way more risk than is necessary.

The score only put Dallas up by 3. So what Dallas is measuring is (chance of Dallas not scoring from the 1+chance of GB scoring a TD with 30 seconds or less left+chances of GB scoring a FG with 30 second or less left then winning in OT) vs. (chances of GB scoring a TD with a minute left and a timeout+ chances of GB kicking a FG with a minute+left and a timeout and winning in overtime). Given the personnel on each team, I think I like betting on the first being smaller. The chances of GB driving for a FG with a minute plus left seems very high to me.

I think the ideal strategy is probably for Dak to fall at the one and then burn a down like the Patriots did against Seattle last year so its basically three chances to score a TD to win the game (or, at worst, get to overtime, GB is almost never scoring a TD with 30 seconds left no timeouts). If they werent willing to do that, then probably makes sense to score/not that much of an advantage to falling down.

But trying to set that up while the game is going on, might be more complicated then its worth.

 

[dcmissle]

I can see both sides, even if you can set it up. I'll stipulate the odds are better to go down at the one. But this four cracks from the 2 against Seattle is like swallowing bad cough medicine, even though the season ended well.

http://www.seahawks.com/news/2016/11/14/seahawks-defense-holds-patriots-goal-line-stand-what-we-do

There is so much that can go wrong.

 

[Stitch01]

Sure, but they will go wrong less often if teams make the choice that gives them the best odds of winning.

Didnt seem like much hangover from that (IMO clearly correct) Seahawks decision given the Pats didnt lose again.

 

[TFisNEXT]

I feel like the odds of Rodgers going straight down the field are being over-estimated. I mean, in hindsight since he actually did it, I get that the idea of giving him the ball back with 73 seconds left and a time out seems like death, but there's a lot of things that can happen which end their drive too. Rodgers does get sacked a lot and taking one on the final drive would be a pretty crippling blow (yes, I know he'd probably try and avoid one more than usual too...but so would any other QB and we still see this happen a decent amount of the time). Keeping the ball in bounds milks the clock pretty quick...something Dallas failed to do 3 different times on chunk plays that drive...which was devastating. Maybe there is a systemic flaw in the Cowboys defense that prevented them from keeping the plays in bounds, but watching it in real time, it just looked like they lost contain a couple times out of carelessness, something you probably aren't going to gameplan by. They scored with 11 seconds left, so they are probably a solid 2-3 plays further back from the endzone if they had made a couple of those 3 chunk plays stay in bounds. A turnover also ends things...not likely, but it actually almost happened. On the throw before the TD, the Dallas CB Lewis nearly intercepted the ball in the endzone. If he had turned around about a quarter of a second earlier, he may have had it. Then, you also have the missed FG chance as well...Crosby had already missed two PATs that game, so a FG was no gimme.

Maybe if Sean Lee was healthy and playing that game, the above makes a little more sense. The defense was pretty depleted so I can see the angle of basically assuming they are completely useless. On top of that, the O-line was really starting to wear down the GB defensive line...so that adds another point in favor of falling at the 1 and then making GB stop you 4 straight times (it would have been first and goal since Dak's run came on 3rd and 2 from the 11). Maybe I'm being convinced that falling at the 1 was a good idea now...but there's still something that tells me you take the sure touchdown and trust you won't lose in 73 seconds with only 1 time out for your opponent. I do get that you have to factor in overtime too in the case of a tying FG.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I feel like the odds of Rodgers going straight down the field are being over-estimated. I.

For comparison sake, Rodgers is 13th among active QBs in game-winning drives

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/gwd_career.htm

That ranking, though, is not broken down into final two minutes

 

[Stitch01]

Rodgers chances dont have to be that high IMO. What are the chances that the Packers stop the Cowboys three times at the 1 (Im using 3 because if they are using this strategy, they pretty clearly should burn a down and 40 seconds) 10%? 15% Cowboys are very efficient on short 3rd and 4th conversions this year so far, ran the ball down the Packers throats the whole 4th quarter, had been very successful in short yardage, and have a bad defense.

Yeah, most of the time he's not going to get there. Cowboys are big favorites at that point whether they score or are 1st and goal from the 1.

 

[Bosoxen]

FWIW, I had no problem with Dak going straight for the end zone. But I will say that after the high fives ended, I turned to my brother and said, "I actually wouldn't have been mad if he had gone down at the 1. This gives Rodgers way too much time."

I've seen that fucking movie way too many times with this damn team. I was 99% sure the game was at least going to overtime (which, in my estimation, was the most realistic best-case scenario). The other 1% allowed for a GB touchdown and effectively ending the game. I had zero faith that the defense would get the stop necessary to win the game in regulation.

Until the offense gets its act together and stops disappearing for long stretches, they're going to be .500 or worse against competent offenses. The defense just sucks way too hard for the offense to not TOP teams to death.

 

[johnmd20]

FWIW, I had no problem with Dak going straight for the end zone. But I will say that after the high fives ended, I turned to my brother and said, "I actually wouldn't have been mad if he had gone down at the 1. This gives Rodgers way too much time."

I've seen that fucking movie way too many times with this damn team. I was 99% sure the game was at least going to overtime (which, in my estimation, was the most realistic best-case scenario). The other 1% allowed for a GB touchdown and effectively ending the game. I had zero faith that the defense would get the stop necessary to win the game in regulation.

Until the offense gets its act together and stops disappearing for long stretches, they're going to be .500 or worse against competent offenses. The defense just sucks way too hard for the offense to not TOP teams to death.

Dak not going down on the one is defensible. The fade to Dez on the play before, stopping the clock, is unequivocally unacceptable. At best, they score a TD and give Rodgers ever more time to score. At worst, it's an INT. What resulted in an incompletion and didn't force GB to use their last time out, saving them 30-35 seconds, which they obviously needed.

That play, out of the entire last 90 seconds, is really the one thing that sticks out of me. Just a woeful decision and playcall.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Dak not going down on the one is defensible. The fade to Dez on the play before, stopping the clock, is unequivocally unacceptable. At best, they score a TD and give Rodgers ever more time to score. At worst, it's an INT. What resulted in an incompletion and didn't force GB to use their last time out, saving them 30-35 seconds, which they obviously needed.

That play, out of the entire last 90 seconds, is really the one thing that sticks out of me. Just a woeful decision and playcall.

Agreed. There was no reason for that playcall at all in the context of the game situation.

 

[Bosoxen]

Yeah, I agree with that as well. The best-case scenario on that play is scoring and leaving more time on the clock for Green Bay. When you're ramming the football down their throats with the running game there is NO excuse for throwing the ball in that situation. Least of all a fucking fade. If you must call a pass play, a rollout - giving Dak the option to keep the ball on the ground - could be mildly defensible. But a pass designed to be thrown off of a three-step drop is the height of stupidity and Scott Linehan has rightly been skewered for that call in the Dallas media.

 

[Greg29fan]

Nolan Carroll was released and Stephen Paea retired - that plus the Jerrah/anthem kerfuffle and the Zeke stuff, seems like this season is getting away from the Cowboys quickly.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Nolan Carroll was released and Stephen Paea retired - that plus the Jerrah/anthem kerfuffle and the Zeke stuff, seems like this season is getting away from the Cowboys quickly.

They will find out fairly quickly if they are a contender in the NFC East....after the bye and a road game against the 49ers which should get them back to 3-3, they face @WAS, vs KC, @ATL, vs PHI...those are 4 pretty big games against decent or better opponents.

9 or 10 wins might be good enough though given that the Giants are done. Philly is off to a strong start, but they still have some tough opponents and Dallas still gets them twice. So the Cowboys will have their chance to make up ground if they don't play themselves out of it the next month.

 

[Bosoxen]

2-2 is their best-case scenario in that stretch. KC and Atlanta have very good, versatile running backs which appears to be the weakness du jour of the defense. And with their supposed run stopper announcing his retirement, Kareem Hunt is going to torch them. I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish with 250 yards from scrimmage.

At any rate, even assuming that 2-2 record, they'd be 5-5 going into the middle of November. Unless the defense can get unfucked at some point between now and then, I only see 2-3 wins the rest of the way, meaning 8-8 is their likely ceiling. And that's only assuming they can manage to beat Washington and Philly at all, let alone getting two wins out of those four games.

And this is all even ignoring the off-field bullshit. That nonsense could still cost them another game or two.

Naturally, nothing will change.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

BREAKING: Federal appeals court clears way for NFL's 6-game suspension of Dallas Cowboys star Ezekiel Elliott in domestic case.

4:35 PM - 12 Oct 2017

 

[Marciano490]

What's clears way mean?

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

5th circuit court of appeals rules against #Cowboys RB Zeke Elliott & for the NFL. Elliott’s suspension is reinstated, per @RMFifthCircuit

4:41 PM - 12 Oct 2017

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

What's clears way mean?

CA5 rules that the district court lacked subject matter jurisdiction to adjudicate the #Zeke appeal. 2-1 vote.

4:27 PM - 12 Oct 2017

 

[Doug Beerabelli]

What are appeal options - Supreme Court or hearing en banc with 5th Curcuit?

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

What are appeal options - Supreme Court or hearing en banc with 5th Curcuit?

Zeke has three options IMO. 1/ Refile in Texas, and argue the new case should go ahead instead of NY case. 2/ File TRO in NY OR
3) see en banc rehearing in the Fifth Circuit (rehearing by the whole court). Given timing, I'd bet on combo of #2 and #3.

 

[DavidTai]

The thing that bothers me most about this is, is there absolutely -no- way to give him a 'fair chance' of filing before the NFL, which knows exactly when the sentence is to be issued, files in New York?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The thing that bothers me most about this is, is there absolutely -no- way to give him a 'fair chance' of filing before the NFL, which knows exactly when the sentence is to be issued, files in New York?

Yup.

That said, I think he will get a stay again, either by creating a messy situation by refiling in Texas or by also filing in New York. He just has far less of a chance on the merits now.

 

[Greg29fan]

I'd just serve it at this point. Fair chance the Cowboys are done and he can get it over with and come back next year with nothing hanging over him (provided he doesn't fuck up again).

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I'd just serve it at this point. Fair chance the Cowboys are done and he can get it over with and come back next year with nothing hanging over him (provided he doesn't fuck up again).

Depends on whether or not he did it. I wouldn't stop fighting if I didn't do it.

I'm not saying that if he does stop fighting it necessarily means that he is guilty, but if he feels he has been wrongly accused and wants his day in court then it is much easier said than done to say, "give up."

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I've read part of and skimmed the rest of the the 5th Circuit's opinion.

I'm too old to write a law review article, but if I ever do I already have a title: "The Jurisdiction Fetish."

For the nonlawyers, there's a concept in the law called "jurisdiction," which is perhaps the most bloated, over used, rarely regarded, and stupid doctrines in the law. It is billed in law school as this major doctrine of "separation of powers" on which the entire fate of the republic depends. There is something to that. I'm not disputing that under the constitution, there are limits on what certain courts should be able to do.

But it has gotten so far out of hand, and the reverence with which we treat these "jurisdictional" concepts have become so absurd and divorced from the business of courts that it has become laughable.

In this case, the NFLPA filed their complaint early. But the judge didn't rule until after the arbitrator ruled. There is absolutely no difference between what the judge would have decided if the NFLPA had filed a few days later and what it decided. Even if the original complaint was early, by the time anyone got around to considering it, it was timely. What are we doing? Doesn't that sound stupid?

Well, the court has an answer: Jurisdiction is decided at the time of filing, not later. This is a general principle that very serious and very smart lawyers will say with great reverence without spending even a half second asking, "why"? There actually are good reasons for it, in certain cases. But, mostly, it's dumb. It's made up. You don't find it in the constitution. It's there because in occasional cases you could abuse the rule otherwise, by like moving to create something called "diversity jurisdiction." But, you know, I actually have faith that judges can figure out when it's being abused. There was nothing to exhaust here.

This opinion is everything that's bad about the law. The NFL made its arguments, the NFLPA made its arguments. The judge considered them, issued a decision, and everything was done exactly like it's supposed to be done. To say that the opinion disappears on a technicality overstates it. It's not even a technicality. It's artificial reverence to make-believe rules that arise over a concept that has been divorced from its meaning just because.

 

[mwonow]

I've read part of and skimmed the rest of the the 5th Circuit's opinion.

(snip) To say that the opinion disappears on a technicality overstates it. It's not even a technicality. It's artificial reverence to make-believe rules that arise over a concept that has been divorced from its meaning just because.

Sorry to raise the issue yet again, but this would be a remarkably apt one-phrase summation of the DFG mess.

 

[Bosoxen]

Is that jurisdiction issue applied consistently or do judges only apply it when they don't feel like ruling on the actual merits? I ask because, knowing that this standard exists and could have gotten their case thrown out, it could be considered malpractice to file early. This is especially troublesome if what @mwonow says is true and the same standard was applied to the Brady case. Fool me five times!

But hey, maybe there's a silver lining to this. Already sitting at 2-3 and about to lose Elliott going into the toughest stretch of the season, it's not at all a stretch anymore to see them only win 6-7 games. That should put them in the top half of the draft. With the 2018 draft being billed as QB heavy, it could be a really good opportunity to make a trade with a QB-desperate team and really stock up on defensive talent.

Naturally, this means they'll manage to eek out eight wins, miss the playoffs, wind up in the middle of the draft and fuck up their first round pick.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Is that jurisdiction issue applied consistently or do judges only apply it when they don't feel like ruling on the actual merits? I ask because, knowing that this standard exists and could have gotten their case thrown out, it could be considered malpractice to file early. This is especially troublesome if what @mwonow says is true and the same standard was applied to the Brady case. Fool me five times!

But hey, maybe there's a silver lining to this. Already sitting at 2-3 and about to lose Elliott going into the toughest stretch of the season, it's not at all a stretch anymore to see them only win 6-7 games. That should put them in the top half of the draft. With the 2018 draft being billed as QB heavy, it could be a really good opportunity to make a trade with a QB-desperate team and really stock up on defensive talent.

Naturally, this means they'll manage to eek out eight wins, miss the playoffs, wind up in the middle of the draft and fuck up their first round pick.

In retrospect, my post was unduly indulgent and probably not all that appropriate for a sports message board in the middle of the football season. I kind of used the development to jump the thread a bit to rant about a pet peeve. So, I'll try to keep my further thoughts short and to the point about the stay factors and the legal developments. Understand that many lawyers would scoff at what I wrote -- "jurisdiction" has for a long time been regarded like the secular new testament.

To answer your questions, I do think sometimes judges might use "jurisdiction" to avoid the merits. But I'm not sure that is happening here. Even the majority recognized that Elliot's claims may have merit, but they just view themselves as required to adhere slavishly to jurisdiction.

I do not think the NFLPA acted negligently here. I actually think this was a gamble well worth taking. There is a patent unfairness, as others have mentioned, that happens in these cases, most notably Brady -- that the NFL can choose its forum by knowing exactly when the ruling is coming out. The NFLPA took a chance to try to change that. It didn't work. But, they really are in no worse position now. The case is now in SDNY, which is where it would have been 5 weeks ago but for this detour, so they are no worse off. If anything, they are better off. They actually have a puncher's chance at having the New York court now transfer the case back to Texas, given that the judge there is already invested. (This would put the NFL right back in the jackpot.) They also have much more ammunition now to get a stay from the New York court than they would have if they'd gone there originally -- they have one district court judge who found pretty conclusively that Elliot was wronged, and the dissenting judge on the 5th Circuit felt the same way. Under those circumstances, it's very hard for the New York judge not to enter the stay at this point -- unless she's ready to rule on the merits immediately, she has two judges saying that there are issues here, and making Elliott serve the suspension before she can get to the merits would be pretty unfair. Moreover, the 5 week detour in Texas now means that a stay would likely get Elliot through the entire season. tl;dr -- the NFLPA took a chance, that was worth taking, and didn't really hurt themselves that much.

 

[Bosoxen]

Thanks for the explanation. Will $10 cover it or do you charge more than DRS?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Thanks for the explanation. Will $10 cover it or do you charge more than DRS?

$.81 before taxes is fine.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Is that jurisdiction issue applied consistently or do judges only apply it when they don't feel like ruling on the actual merits? I ask because, knowing that this standard exists and could have gotten their case thrown out, it could be considered malpractice to file early. This is especially troublesome if what @mwonow says is true and the same standard was applied to the Brady case. Fool me five times!

But hey, maybe there's a silver lining to this. Already sitting at 2-3 and about to lose Elliott going into the toughest stretch of the season, it's not at all a stretch anymore to see them only win 6-7 games. That should put them in the top half of the draft. With the 2018 draft being billed as QB heavy, it could be a really good opportunity to make a trade with a QB-desperate team and really stock up on defensive talent.

Naturally, this means they'll manage to eek out eight wins, miss the playoffs, wind up in the middle of the draft and fuck up their first round pick.

Another positive is Dak will get to learn what it's like to consistently have to carry the team on his back...ala Tony Romo for many years there.

Probably not the worst skill to learn. If he somehow performs a miracle and keeps the Cowboys in contention, you get a fresh well-rested Zeke back in December. But I think Zeke is going to fight this...it seems like he truly believes he was wronged in all of this. It's probably better for the team if he drops it, but as DDB said, its hard to drop the case if you think you're being witch hunted.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

En banc it is.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

What's actually going on is pretty procedurally complicated. But that story has it mostly right.

The important part is that even if en banc doesn't work, the New York option remains.

 

[koufax32]

So when should we hear on the new injunction that will no doubt be requested?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

So when should we hear on the new injunction that will no doubt be requested?

If the latest gambit works, they won't need a new injunction. They are asking the fifth circuit to wait to tell the district court to dismiss until it considers the en banc petition. If that works, nothing will change. The stay would stay in place.

The fifth circuit could do nothing in which case there would be a very strange situation procedurally, in which case by early next week NFLPA would need to file another emergency motion, maybe in Texas, maybe in New York, if he is going to play.

 

[Greg29fan]

Suspension off again

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Yup, off until the end of the month, and probably longer.

 

[Bosoxen]

Not that I expect it to be an issue unless the team gets itself right in a hurry but am I wrong in worrying that we could potentially see his suspension imposed for good right as the playoffs roll around? Or is it more likely we'd see something like what happened with Brady and nothing will be decided that would affect the 2017 season (directly anyway)?

 

[dcmissle]

Not that I expect it to be an issue unless the team gets itself right in a hurry but am I wrong in worrying that we could potentially see his suspension imposed for good right as the playoffs roll around? Or is it more likely we'd see something like what happened with Brady and nothing will be decided that would affect the 2017 season (directly anyway)?

I think the Brady route is more likely, but as this case indicates, these matters can unfold in weird ways. If the judge wants to slow roll this not to impact the 2017 season, he can.