2017 Dolphins: On the Right Track

sodenj5

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Holy fucking shit. Ajayi was in the dog house but this?!! I don’t. I just. How? Why?

Watching this team, Ajayi is about the 10th player I would say is the problem. And for a 4th rounder?!

If they aren’t trading Landry and Suh today this move makes zero sense. Ajayi was still super cheap and less than 6 months from being one of the best RBs in football.

Who is the running back going forward? Kenyan Drake?
 

RedOctober3829

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Charles Robinson of Yahoo said the Dolphins had really big concerns about the condition of Ajayi's knees going forward. He says they were going to move on from him at the end of the year anyways so gaining a 4th round pick is a bonus.
 

sodenj5

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Charles Robinson of Yahoo said the Dolphins had really big concerns about the condition of Ajayi's knees going forward. He says they were going to move on from him at the end of the year anyways so gaining a 4th round pick is a bonus.
Pretty much the exact reason he fell to them in the fifth round in the first place.

Miami was being cautious with him, giving him extra rest and days off from practices to try and keep him fresh. Also sounds like he was unhappy in Miami again. I believe Armando Salguero reported that Ajayi stormed out of the locker room on more than one occasion after Miami wins because he felt he didn’t get enough touches.

I don’t want to smear the guy on his way out. Bottom line, I thought he was a great player last year, but apparently clashed with coaches and his knee is still a big red flag. Hope he does well in Philly. He’s a much better version of Lagarrette Blount for them.
 

rymflaherty

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The one positive I’ve taken away is the self-awareness the trade shows. I appreciate that they seem to be realistically accessing the team, and not just looking at the 4-3 record.
The short-sighted approach has plagued this team for years, so I can understand making moves that are best for the long term...

That said, the negative is that the long term means putting faith in the same people who’ve created the mess. And that they’ll be able to make something of the acquired assets.

It’s hard to be a Dolphins fan and not be cynical about the theoretical prospects of a mid-round pick.
 

Clears Cleaver

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I know I’ve done this analysis before but who would you keep/build around?

Signing marginal players to long term deals is the problem. Guys like kiko. And not developing an oline. Jawan james is due a pay day soon. You want to pay him? Pouncey?!??
 

pdaj

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There's a lot of speculation and hearsay surrounding Ajayi and his "fit" to this team. It's difficult, at this point, to know what's true, but here are my thoughts:

- Despite the offseason hype surrounding Ajayi's work to become more of the 3-down back, this improvement was never seen on the field. Jay is a violent, 2-down runner, which I don't think is Gase's preferred type of back. If you recall, the Fins attempted to sign C.J. Anderson away from Denver shortly after hiring Gase. He's much more of a versatile, all-around back. According to Gase, he's scaled back the offense significantly following the injury to Tannehill, and from all accounts, Ajayi limited Miami's system flexibility and compounded the issue of predictability.

- Yes, Ajayi's knee is a long-term issue, and he has looked about a 1/2-step slower thus far this season, but the larger issue is the preventative care required to prolong Ajayi's career. Translation? He doesn't practice. So, with reports of Ajayi missing blocking assignments, running the wrong routes, dropping passes, etc.-- this was a potential issue.

- Then there's the attitude issue. This was forgotten about after Jay's success last year, however, he was left home for a road trip to begin last season. Ajayi seems to be a bit of a diva, a personality type that seems to be more prevalent amongst receivers. When a team's winning, a coach is likely to put up with this; but when you're not? You know the story.

- I think this trade likely works out for both teams. Ajayi gets a change of scenery and is set up perfectly for success with a mobile QB and an improved offensive line. I think those 2 variables factored heavily in Jay's success last year. I think he'll be really successful. Meanwhile, Gase no longer is "handcuffed" by Ajayi, which included running the few type of running plays he felt comfortable with.

- Everyone's ready to announce Drake as the star to replace Jay, but I'm skeptical. I don't doubt Drake's ability, but I think he's a 15 or less touch guy, despite a build that suggests he could handle more. He's just not able to handle a large workload. Thus, I expect to see a lot of Williams, also, and wouldn't be surprised to see Perry earn some PT down the line.
 

sodenj5

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I believe Salguero noted that for Ajayi to be successful, Miami ran a ton of 2 and 3TE sets. So when the defense sees Ajayi and 3 TEs on the field, they absolutely load the box and he has little room to run. Those runs worked last year, teams are wise to it this year. Not a lot of deception in those formations.

Someone like Drake brings a speed and pass catching threat that Ajayi does not. Drake can run inside, outside, line up split out wide. He opens the doors to a lot of creativity and potential mismatches, which Gase probably sorely misses.

I don’t want to pretend that Ajayi is the root of Miami’s problems. I agree that he’s likely going to do very well in Philly. It seemed obvious that he wasn’t really Gase’s guy. Gase adapted his whole offensive philosophy to try and suit Ajayi’s strengths. I would imagine moving forward, there will be far less 3TE power running sets and a lot more shotgun inside zone runs, swing passes, screens the the RB. All staples of Gase’s offense that he essentially scrapped.

This also leaves zero question. This is Gase’s show. He tried to work with Ajayi, but ultimately he never bought in, was more concerned with himself and his carries, stats, etc. and Gase had enough. If cutting two lineman last year didn’t get the point across, this certainly will. Do what the coaches ask of you or you will be gone. Seems like it’s that simple, regardless of who you are or what you’ve done.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Lombardi implies the locker room Is a mess. Lack of leadership. Pouncey is a leader but he’s done. Landry is gone. Suh is not a locker room guy. QB isn’t etc
 

Clears Cleaver

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Landry's not gone, yet.
implying that he is not going to be around next year. sounds like a complete overhaul is coming, as is needed. hopefully someone realzies they need to actualy have a good O-Linee for the first time in 10 years
 

rymflaherty

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^
I think they’ve realized that.
They’ve invested as much, if not more, in the O-Line than any other team in the league.
The issue is the execution. They’ve attempted to do it, they’ve just proved incompetent in doing it.

Thinking about the investment and return on that group is infuriating, even more so when you realize it spans like a decade.
I routinely listen to the LeBatard local
Hour and that’s something he often mentions as the thing that makes his head explode.

Edit* - I saw Lombardi being referenced, I was listening to the other Ringer NFL guys and they had Ryan Tannehill as the mid-season NFL MVP. Lol
 
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sodenj5

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Edit* - I saw Lombardi being referenced, I was listening to the other Ringer NFL guys and they had Ryan Tannehill as the mid-season NFL MVP. Lol
Seriously, think about this offense. It’s almost entirely the same group as last year. Same receivers. Until the deadline, same running backs. Basically the same OL. They went from a competent offense that everyone expected to take a step forward to regressing so badly they’re the worst offense in football by almost every metric.

Anyone that says anything negative about Tannehill should be shot and killed. You’ve seen the alternative. There’s also about 12-13 years of Cleo Lemon, AJ Feeley, and John Beck memories people have suppressed.
 

Van Everyman

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Not to pile on but I caught the bolded on Football Night in America:

“It’s not on the defense; the defense is fine,” he said. “Special teams we seem to be all right. Maybe it’s easy - just run straight and hit somebody. But offensively, it’s a joke. We got too many guys that don’t want to take it home with them. Until our best players put forth some effort, it will be [expletive].”
I’ve generally liked Gase and think he’s having a bit of a sophomore slump this year. But really? Special teams is just running straight ahead and hitting somebody? I can’t for the life of me imagine Belichick or any of his players ever saying something like this.
 

sodenj5

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Too many penalties. Offense squandered about 2-3 golden opportunities, the biggest being the fumble recovery on the Suh strip.

Offense looked decent, tons of checkdowns to the backs, but Drake and Williams looked decent.

The defense absolutely gagged. Jared Cook was wide the fuck open about 10 times. Reshad Jones with a complete failure on that deep ball TD. Secondary looked bad. Hopefully McDonald can give them a boost.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Too many penalties. Offense squandered about 2-3 golden opportunities, the biggest being the fumble recovery on the Suh strip.

Offense looked decent, tons of checkdowns to the backs, but Drake and Williams looked decent.

The defense absolutely gagged. Jared Cook was wide the fuck open about 10 times. Reshad Jones with a complete failure on that deep ball TD. Secondary looked bad. Hopefully McDonald can give them a boost.
I only caught the first drive, but that was clearly a huge mismatch with Alonso. Did the coaching staff adjust after? If not, shame on them.
 

sodenj5

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I only caught the first drive, but that was clearly a huge mismatch with Alonso. Did the coaching staff adjust after? If not, shame on them.
After the first drive, Miami switched and played a lot more zone, but Cook was still running free a lot.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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After the first drive, Miami switched and played a lot more zone, but Cook was still running free a lot.
That's surprising to me. The dolphins front 4 is practically good enough to stand alone against the Oakland run game. I would have preferred something more unconventional. Play dime (preferably with 3 safeties, although I don't think McDonald is back yet), get Alonso off the field, and bring a safety into the box as a 2nd linebacker. The strength of the Dolphins unit feels like their front 4 and their safeties. They can get by against the run game with that front 4 and a LB/safety in the box to help. I'm a little surprised they switched to zone and abandoned a man scheme they obviously wanted to lean on.
 

rymflaherty

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Apparently I wasn’t imagining, or using hyperbole, regarding Dolphins Primetime woes - just heard on a Ringer podcast (via the Herald) - since 2015 record of 1-8 outscored 246-122.
That doesn’t even count the London shit shows, or playoff game, which have been national TV.
It’s hard to not be cynical when you’re an out of market fan, and every time you get to watch them uninterrupted they are getting stomped and embarrassed.

Can’t wait for Monday.
 

luckiestman

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Why would they cut someone over a bar fight? Did they want him gone and this is cover or is there more to this story?
 

sodenj5

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So that's basically a wrap on the season. Miami absolutely murdered their season with penalties and turnovers yesterday. Matt Moore came of the bench and sparked another rally, but the defense had no answers for a TE again. I think they ran the corner route 100 times against Miami with guys wide open again.

Hard to be too mad about the season. Yes, it's another lost cause and a lost year. The season realistically sank the day Tannehill went down. Gase bringing Cutler in out of the booth was a poor decision and one I didn't agree with at the time for a number of reasons. Can't fault him for trying to make the best out of a situation that sinks most teams.

Serious questions need to start being asked about this roster's construction and the people building it. Tannanebaum has been here long enough that his stamp is on this team. The O-Line is a disaster, there are talks of tearing down the offense and rebuilding significantly. The defense started strong but has fallen off a cliff. Miami can't cover a TE. They aren't getting pressure with their front 4. Branch has been a complete no-show all year. Parker has been pretty much what he's been the last two years, banged up and inconsistent. The list can go on and on.

Tough. We all knew this season had the potential to go south once Tannehill went down, but it sucks having one decent season and back to 7-9 or 6-10 or whatever they end up being this year.
 

pdaj

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So, um, anyone feeling good about this one? If so, please PM me your daily medication regiment at your earliest convenience.

That said, if I had to choose a QB to win a game that determined whether I lived or died, Cutler would be ... the last guy I’d pick. Thus, Moore taking the helm bumps up the chance of an upset from 1% to about 15%. Not bad, under the circumstances.

The recipe for an upset?

- A TD score in the 1st quarter.

- Keep Team Brady in 3rd and long, which means stopping the run and the RB-orchestrated passing game. The latter will require plus performances from the LB/S units.

- Cause a turnover, while giving up 0. Yes, upsetting NE on the road requires near perfection.

- Exceptional special teams play. Short fields will = game over by half time. A big special teams play (run, block, whatever).

- A little luck. Maybe Gostkowski misses 2 bunnies? Gronk leaves after the 1st quarter with cramps?

Anyway, this is sports, played by humans. That’s why we watch. Because you never know.
 

sodenj5

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So, um, anyone feeling good about this one? If so, please PM me your daily medication regiment at your earliest convenience.

That said, if I had to choose a QB to win a game that determined whether I lived or died, Cutler would be ... the last guy I’d pick. Thus, Moore taking the helm bumps up the chance of an upset from 1% to about 15%. Not bad, under the circumstances.

The recipe for an upset?

- A TD score in the 1st quarter.

- Keep Team Brady in 3rd and long, which means stopping the run and the RB-orchestrated passing game. The latter will require plus performances from the LB/S units.

- Cause a turnover, while giving up 0. Yes, upsetting NE on the road requires near perfection.

- Exceptional special teams play. Short fields will = game over by half time. A big special teams play (run, block, whatever).

- A little luck. Maybe Gostkowski misses 2 bunnies? Gronk leaves after the 1st quarter with cramps?

Anyway, this is sports, played by humans. That’s why we watch. Because you never know.
Odds are really poor. Miami needs to double Gronk to have any chance of slowing him down. I’m sure the Pats picked up on Miami’s complete inability to stop any TE. I expect them to exploit Kiko and have their way with the D.
 

sodenj5

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This team is who we thought they were last year. Clearly, Miami has a flawed roster and they overachieved and made a monster run last year at the end of the year to make the playoffs.

Looking at most of the season now in retrospect, it bothers me how "all-in" Miami went this year, signing stopgap guys all over the roster to plug leaky holes. Cutler is what he is. Gase was correct in his assessment that Matt Moore isn't the guy he wants to lead the offense for an entire year. He went with a guy he knows and tried to make the best out of a worst-case scenario. I give him a pass on that, however guys like Hayes, Timmons, Maualuga, Julius Thomas, Jermon Bushrod, these are all guys clearly at the tail ends of their career and meant to contribute this year. Some have (Timmons and Hayes) some have not (anyone else). This is not a roster built to compete with the Patriots this year, but they tried to force it. I'm not saying they should have rolled over and called it a year once Tannehill went down, but they've wasted resources trying to bail this sinking ship out.

The other thing that bother me a lot is the lack of development from the young guys. Devnate Parker, Xavien Howard, Carroo, Grant, Tunsil. If you're ever going to compete with NE, these young guys that they're drafting have to contribute and develop. If anything, I think it's safe to say most have regressed across the board. To me, that's the biggest red flag. We're in year two of Gase, and Devante Parker still looks lost out there.

I honestly don't even know where they should look in the draft next year. This team has so many holes on the OLine and defense it's insane.
 

pdaj

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I have to be honest, Sod', your take seems revisionist to me.

The only "force it" move of note the Dolphins made following the Tannehill injury, which occurred in August, was sign Cutler. And sure, the 10 million was a big investment that hasn't panned out. But, at the time, what were the options?

Roll with Moore? Sign Kaepernick? While the latter option would have been intriguing, it's very likely Miami ends up in the same position they're in now, with some wondering, "Should 'we' have signed Cutler?"

Aside from the Cutler signing, Maualuga was added late and cost the club 900K. IMO, this doesn't belong on any list for second-guessing.

Additionally, if players like Hayes and Timmons were playing for Eagles, Titans, or Saints right now, they'd be considered good signings. I hope Hayes it back with the team next season, and I expect Timmons to be part of an improved LB positionin '18, with Raekwon back and likely another addition (draft, FA) in the offseason.

Aside from that, I think the QB play this year can't be understated. It's been flat-out awful, and as a result, it's impacted their entire team, including the defensive unit, who until yesterday, had been on the field far too long each week.

There's a lot of young talent on this team to like. While guys like Parker, Harris, and Howard (until yesterday) have been inconsistent and disappointing at times, Drake, Godchaux, Phillips, Taylor, Tank, McCain have played well. Reshad and McDonald have been solid as a tandem, also.

My criticism:

- Julias Thomas. He looked cooked in preseason, and it hasn't been much better during the season. I can think of a few different ways that 9 million could have been spent.

- Bushrod, Larsen. They suck. The guard issue was a concern in the offseason and was addressed cheaply and ineffectively. As a silver lining, Jesse Davis may be a solid piece going forward.

- Mike Pouncey. Gase keeps saying he's playing well, but that's a lie. Miami can save 7 million next year by cutting him (2 million in dead cap). Gase has "his guys," and Pouncey seems to belong to the group. This has appeared to affect Gase's assessment of players in the past, i.e. Cutler, Bushrod, Thomas.

I think this team can be a 10-6 team next year if Tannehill returns, the right FO moves are made this offseason, and the coaching improves. Of course, that's a lot of ifs.
 

Van Everyman

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Silver lining for the Dolphins: this team seems to be replaying what the Jets did when they hired Bowles three years ago -- and while I'm not ready to crown the Jets champion of anything, I think they've played competitively this year and that Bowles looks like a solid HC after an overachieving rookie year and woeful sophomore season.

Get Tannehill back next year, shed some of the dead weight and maybe Gase is back on a roll again.
 

pdaj

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I do think Monday night's game vs NE could get interesting for a few, not-well-thought-out reasons:

1) The Denver win.

The Broncos are AWFUL. But, you know, similar to boxing, sometimes knocking out a bum can increase a team's confidence.

2) It's the Patriots.

It's a division game. It's the Patriots. The first game was really chippy. And this game's at ...

3) Home.

Monday night. Motivation should be sky-high.

4) No Gronk.

As always, he was a big part of the offense in Game 1.

5) Nothing to lose.

Gase could be aggressive with a few planned surprises.
 

pdaj

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Silver lining for the Dolphins: this team seems to be replaying what the Jets did when they hired Bowles three years ago -- and while I'm not ready to crown the Jets champion of anything, I think they've played competitively this year and that Bowles looks like a solid HC after an overachieving rookie year and woeful sophomore season.

Get Tannehill back next year, shed some of the dead weight and maybe Gase is back on a roll again.
Think Bowles is definitely staying?
 

Van Everyman

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That's a good question. I think it would be a mistake to let Bowles go. Not simply because I think he's a decent coach but because I think turnover year to year does a lot of damage to a roster. As we see with the other AFC team from NY.

Now, whether he wants to stay OTOH ...
 

j-man

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I do think Monday night's game vs NE could get interesting for a few, not-well-thought-out reasons:

1) The Denver win.

The Broncos are AWFUL. But, you know, similar to boxing, sometimes knocking out a bum can increase a team's confidence. hopefully with a new coach next season denver will be betther
denver was in the game uthil the 3rd q as always miami did win the game rightly but that onside kick rub me wrong

2) It's the Patriots.

It's a division game. It's the Patriots. The first game was really chippy. And this game's at ...

3) Home.

Monday night. Motivation should be sky-high.

4) No Gronk.

As always, he was a big part of the offense in Game 1.

5) Nothing to lose.

Gase could be aggressive with a few planned surprises.
 

pdaj

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Alright, so, I started writing a long, detailed post explaining why I thought the Dolphins could win tonight, but in the end ... I just wasn't convinced.

My biggest concerns:

- Who the hell is covering Cook?

With Tank out, this is going to be a bigger issue than in the previous contest. Howard is capable vs big and/or straight-line speed guys, but the all-around, fast twitch receivers are an issue. I don't expect McCain to be moved to the outside at all, so it could be the Verner show. I wonder if McTyer gets some run tonight?

- Burkhead, Lewis, and White vs MIA LB/S

These units will be challenged with the run and sideline-to-sideline passes all game long. And if Reshad and McDonald get too aggressive, Hogan will look to strike over the top. I'd expect Brady to take a few shots in this once when the opportunity presents itself.

- Turnovers/penalties

Shit, I'm not even going to bring up the defensive penalties to make my point. Miami's offensive penalties have seemingly crushed the soul of more offensive drives this year than even Cutler can claim. And speaking of that man, he's thrown interceptions in 8 out of 10 games started this year. Drake's also put the ball on the ground a couple times too many this season. Both need to protect the ball to have shot.

If Miami is to pull the upset tonight, it'll be because ...

- Drake gets it done.

Mostly in the running game, but also as Cutler's dink and dunk recipient.

- Cutler doesn't throw a pick.

BB and Brady will make you pay every time.

- Parker emerges from the dead.

Landry will make an impact, as always, and Stills has come on strong, but Parker's truly the wildcard on this offense. Cutler-Parker showed great chemistry early on -- this connection will have to be viable for Miami to score enough points to grab the W.

- A big play from an "unknown".

Verner, McTyer, or Anthony create a big turner? Grant takes a PR back for a TD? You get the idea.
 

pdaj

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Well, the guys came to play tonight. The entire team has brought "it" thus far, including the coaching staff. Where the fuck was this offensive creativity all year? Drake and Grant's been on the roster all season long; and we've been talking about lining Landry up in the backfield since the Packers started doing it with Montgomery and Cobb.

Cutler had a really solid 1st Half, lead by that great, Russell-lite type spin off the sack attempt that lead to a huge 1st down (and the eventual TD). Big miss on 1:1 deep to Thomas, though. Chung was beat, but the throw was badly underthrown. Still, this has easily been Cutler's best half of the season. I still think those early FG come back to bite "us" -- really could have used 7 on one of those drives.

My fan complaint of the 1st half -- this call:



Not sure how this gets called, but that blatant Ramsey DPI vs. Richardson vs. the Seahawks is a non-call.

It really is my #1 frustration as a fan of the game.

Anyway, excited to see how this one finishes out. Miami hasn't had a complete game all year -- and that's what it'll take for the upset here. All 3 phases.

I'll feel better about Miami's chances if they can force a 3-and-out or turnover on NE's opening drive. Can't let NE go down the field and grab 7.
 

swiftaw

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Really need to bring back the old unis full time, so much better than the new ones.
 

pdaj

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Really need to bring back the old unis full time, so much better than the new ones.
Did we just win the Super Bowl?!?
I think we won the Super Bowl...
Feels like it at least.
I nearly laid down the prediction earlier today, but ultimately didn't have the balls. MNF in Miami vs the Patriots has always been a competitive game regardless of the Dolphins' talent.

I'd like to see these last 2 wins lead to a really strong finish (9-7). Playoffs would still be unlikely, but there's a lot of young talent on this roster. F-ck the draft position; winning culture matters.

Miami definitely needs to go back to these uniforms full-time. Once they reach whatever year quota is required for the newbies, it'll happen. Perhaps another 3-5 years.

Positive signs:

- The win.
- Drake.
- The offense diversity, creativity, and POINTS.
- Defensive game plan and intensity. Looking forward to re-watching this one. Loved the multiple looks from Burke, including some 3-down fronts. Much harder to determine where the pressure is coming from.
- Howard. Welcome to the NFL, baby!

Complaints:

- Dropped passes, miscues on open passing plays.
- All 3 TO used for reasons not often associated with well-coached teams.
- Cutler, run the f-cking 1st down!
 
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RIrooter09

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Miami's chances of making the playoffs: 6%
New England's chances: >99%

Good job, good effort. Maybe next year.