2017 Jimmy G: The Dilemma

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I'm seeing no reason here not to simply accept the most likely explanation that seems to fit the facts and Schefter's early reports. The Patriots have said they aren't trading him. They mean it. Teams believe it. Everyone has moved on.

The fact that we don't understand it isn't a reason to say it's not true. There has been zero to suggest it is anything other than this for months now.

Bill seems fine with not doing much picking this draft. Maybe he has some theory that the draft is a new market inefficiency.

 

[Super Nomario]

I'm seeing no reason here not to simply accept the most likely explanation that seems to fit the facts and Schefter's early reports. The Patriots have said they aren't trading him. They mean it. Teams believe it. Everyone has moved on.

The fact that we don't understand it isn't a reason to say it's not true. There has been zero to suggest it is anything other than this for months now.

Bill seems fine with not doing much picking this draft. Maybe he has some theory that the draft is a new market inefficiency.

Have they? More specifically, has Belichick (who is the shot-caller at the end of the day)? At this point, there's plenty of smoke to suggest your take is right, but I'm also not seeing anything concrete here - it's all second- and third- hand.

 

[BigJimEd]

Look back a page or so in the thread for some more observations about Trubisky's pro prospects (and he does get Garappolo comps). They're not good. And he's likely going to be the first QB drafted, so either the Browns are going to have to settle for someone not even as good as Trubisky, or hand over a giant haul to vault to the top of the draft, because the teams picking in the top 10 in desperate need of a QB starts with the 49ers at #2.

New York, Chicago, and Buffalo also need a QB. And Jacksonville might be thinking that the time has come to move on from Bortles. So, yes, spending less on a player that has shown the ability to perform at the NFL level is considerably less risky than spending a lot more for a guy that was unable to beat out a QB that wasn't good enough to be drafted by an NFL team. But it's definitely the Brownsy thing to do to send #12, a future first, and a couple of seconds to the 49ers for #2 to be assured of landing a guy that gets comped to Jimmy Garoppolo.

I know many are not high on Trubisky.
I think there are too many assumptions there and I think many here are over rating Garopollo.
Posters here seem to think he's virtually a sure thing to be a pro bowl level QB. He is very much still a question mark and I don't think it is unreasonable to think there are several teams that prefer one or more of the QBs in the draft to him.


Doesn't mean they will be correct or even that I agree with them but I don't think that belief deserves scorn.

 

[dcmissle]

Have they? More specifically, has Belichick (who is the shot-caller at the end of the day)? At this point, there's plenty of smoke to suggest your take is right, but I'm also not seeing anything concrete here - it's all second- and third- hand.

It's second hand in the case of Werder, then Schefter, who claim to have spoken to unidentified people in the Pats organization. As noted in response to Pxer's question, it has not emanated from other teams. This is about as good as we'll get; BB is not known to take the podium and discuss his plans beyond, *we'll do what's in the best interest of the team.*

I think Denny nails it. If they called, teams were probably told JG is not available, or available only if they are prepared to channel Mike Ditka.

 

[BigJimEd]

Put it this way, if Garoppolo was on another team and there was talk of giving up 12th pick and more or even the number 1 pick, this board would be filled with posts calling that a typical Browns move.


I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of those teams mentioned don't think any of those QBs are worth top 10 picks.

 

[pappymojo]

Put it this way, if Garoppolo was on another team and there was talk of giving up 12th pick and more or even the number 1 pick, this board would be filled with posts calling that a typical Browns move.


I wouldn't be at all surprised if some of those teams mentioned don't think any of those QBs are worth top 10 picks.

While trading the 12th pick plus more for Garoppolo is probably a mistake for the Browns, trading the 12th pick plus more for Trubisky is probably a mistake as well.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jason La Canfora‏Verified account @JasonLaCanfora 4m4 minutes ago
Continue to hear Browns coaches all-in on Garrett but front office more Trubisky in later stages of process and owner badly wants a QB. Hue Jackson has built up a lot of currency and coach/front office divides continue there. As process has gone on owner been asking about QBs and as decision makers go around the room why so few banging drum for a QB at 1st overall. They'd love to solve this via trade. Garoppolo would appease the owner and buy some time and allow them to still take Garrett. Belichick knows all of this of course. Hold tight.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Jason La Canfora‏Verified account @JasonLaCanfora 4m4 minutes ago
Continue to hear Browns coaches all-in on Garrett but front office more Trubisky in later stages of process and owner badly wants a QB. Hue Jackson has built up a lot of currency and coach/front office divides continue there. As process has gone on owner been asking about QBs and as decision makers go around the room why so few banging drum for a QB at 1st overall. They'd love to solve this via trade. Garoppolo would appease the owner and buy some time and allow them to still take Garrett. Belichick knows all of this of course. Hold tight.

If the owner orders them to take a QB at 1/1 -- out of this draft class -- it might well be time for the next five-year plan. That's Jetsian-level absurdity

 

[RedOctober3829]

If the owner orders them to take a QB at 1/1 -- out of this draft class -- it might well be time for the next five-year plan. That's Jetsian-level absurdity

I'd go as far to say if they take a QB in Round 1 this year they are stupid. There's no QB's in this draft good enough to justify taking them over the absurdly talented other positions.

 

[H78]

Trubisky also gives me an "all physical talent, not a lot of mental talent" vibe. Watching him talk about breaking down coverages feels like he's trying to force that he understands some basic reads and NFL-level terminology, but did it more in preparation for the draft than out of a true understanding of how it all works.

His release is also really low; kind of reminds me of Rivers, who is absolutely talented, but I don't know about the first pick in the draft. I also think Rivers has a better understanding of the game (even coming out of college) and comes across as having more of a true passion for the game.

I'd totally use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Trubisky, because there is talent to work with, but the first overall would be a colossal overpay for a guy that doesn't quite feel like an NFL-ready QB and may never get there. I feel like he has "bust" written all over himself if he goes 1st overall.

Browns should really draft Garrett and trade for Jimmy G, and I'm not saying that as a Patriots fan, I'm saying that as an objective observer that's trying to think as if I were a Browns fan.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don't think they are stupid if they take a QB in round 1 this year. Sure, none of the QBs are top 5 or top 10 picks but drafting a QB with picks after the top 10 is not stupid. The main four guys are worth, to me anyway, a shot with a first round pick but not immediately. Again, none of them are top 10 kind of guys. Personally I only like Mahomes and Watson. But stupid is too far, Red. YMMV.

 

[Super Nomario]

If the owner orders them to take a QB at 1/1 -- out of this draft class -- it might well be time for the next five-year plan. That's Jetsian-level absurdity

Unfortunately you can't fire the owner.

I'd go as far to say if they take a QB in Round 1 this year they are stupid. There's no QB's in this draft good enough to justify taking them over the absurdly talented other positions.

I'm not as in love with this draft as you are, especially at the top. For instance, CB (regarded as one of the better positions) is super-deep rounds 2-3 but not that many guys I'd use a first on. I would have no issue with a QB at 12.

 

[Sportsbstn]

I'd go as far to say if they take a QB in Round 1 this year they are stupid. There's no QB's in this draft good enough to justify taking them over the absurdly talented other positions.

It's Cleveland so they will woefully overpay for Trubisky who isn't a top 10 pick, but they will select in the top 5 out of desperation for a QB. If the Patriots are dead set against trading Jimmy then there is nothing to discuss, but I wouldn't doubt if there is any opening at all from the Pats side, that they require the #1 pick closer to the draft. Cleveland is flailing all over themselves.

 

[dcmissle]

Jason La Canfora‏Verified account @JasonLaCanfora 4m4 minutes ago
Continue to hear Browns coaches all-in on Garrett but front office more Trubisky in later stages of process and owner badly wants a QB. Hue Jackson has built up a lot of currency and coach/front office divides continue there. As process has gone on owner been asking about QBs and as decision makers go around the room why so few banging drum for a QB at 1st overall. They'd love to solve this via trade. Garoppolo would appease the owner and buy some time and allow them to still take Garrett. Belichick knows all of this of course. Hold tight.

Assuming all of this is true, with an emphasis on the next-to-last sentence, it illustrates the pitfalls of running your mouth.

There is no doubt that Hue took an emphatic stance publicly about who he wants with that #1/#1. And it's not much of a stretch to suppose that this stance was driven by front office politicking. And if nothing else, if the Browns jump on a rocket sled to hell after the opening bell Thursday, he was on record well before the fact.

 

[snowmanny]

If they aren't going to listen to Hue Jackson on the QB position WTF is he doing there?

 

[E5 Yaz]

If they aren't going to listen to Hue Jackson on the QB position WTF is he doing there?

 

[pappymojo]

Why is Garappolo the only trade target though? What would it take to get AJ McCarron from the Bengals?

Spitballing here, but would the Bengals trade McCarron for a second (52nd overall), and a fifth (145th)? That would leave the Browns with ten picks (they currently have twelve picks) - two firsts, one second, one third, two fourths, two fifths, one sixth and one seventh. That gives the Bengals (who currently have seven picks - one in each round) nine picks in total - one first, two seconds, one third, one fourth, two fifths, one sixth and one seventh. Shouldn't the Bengals be in a bit of a rebuild and if so, doesn't it make sense for them to acquire draft picks? Then the Browns could take a flyer on a late round QB and hope to catch the next Dak Prescott while allowing Kessler, McCarron and Osweiller to compete for the starting job.

 

[nighthob]

I know many are not high on Trubisky.
I think there are too many assumptions there and I think many here are over rating Garopollo.
Posters here seem to think he's virtually a sure thing to be a pro bowl level QB.

Some people think he is, most people think that what he is is a starting level QB in the NFL. As an added bonus he's actually proven that he can play at this level.

What Trubisky proved is that he wasn't good enough to beat out a player that wasn't good enough to be drafted by an NFL team. And that guy, who gets comped to Jimmy G, is probably going to cost more because there are five teams in need of a QB between #1 and #12.

So their actual options are to overpay for a guy that might one day be a starter level QB, draft someone that is probably not even that good at #12, trade up into the late first round for a probably-never-gonna-be like Pat Mahomes (fucking racist autocorrect), trade for a guy that's already demonstrated the ability to play in the NFL, or tank another season. Only those last two options are rational, and therefore probably not the directions the Browns go.

 

[dcmissle]

Alright, the can't-beat-out point has been overplayed. Some people were cagey about it -- and for good reason: Tom Brady did not beat out Drew Henson for stretches of the 1998 and 1999 seasons at Michigan. Drew Henson, after a failed baseball career, got flushed out by the Dallas Cowboys. Sample size -- legitimate. Can't beat out -- the horse has been ridden to death.

 

[nighthob]

The sample size is a function of the other problem.

 

[DJnVa]

Why is Garappolo the only trade target though? What would it take to get AJ McCarron from the Bengals?

Spitballing here, but would the Bengals trade McCarron for a second (52nd overall), and a fifth (145th)? That would leave the Browns with ten picks (they currently have twelve picks) - two firsts, one second, one third, two fourths, two fifths, one sixth and one seventh. That gives the Bengals (who currently have seven picks - one in each round) nine picks in total - one first, two seconds, one third, one fourth, two fifths, one sixth and one seventh. Shouldn't the Bengals be in a bit of a rebuild and if so, doesn't it make sense for them to acquire draft picks? Then the Browns could take a flyer on a late round QB and hope to catch the next Dak Prescott while allowing Kessler, McCarron and Osweiller to compete for the starting job.

Not sure the Bengals want to deal a young QB in the division. Yes, it's the Browns, but still. Same reason the Jets were never really considered a place for JG.

 

[dcmissle]

Mary Kay Cabot is being ridden like a mule by somebody or bodies in Camp Browns. She is out again with a story that Trubisky remains under serious consideration for the 1/1.

I think some of the Trubisky bashing has been overdone, but I can think of only one explanation of this that would give me comfort as a Browns fan -- the team is trying to take advantage of Trubisky fever and trade out of the one spot.

The easiest hypothetical is the 49ers want him, and the teams trade picks with the Browns getting yet more draft ammo. A trade at the top would make sense if there 5 to 10 players the Browns would be happy with in the early part of round 1.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Mary Kay Cabot is being ridden like a mule by somebody or bodies in Camp Browns. She is out again with a story that Trubisky remains under serious consideration for the 1/1.

I think some of the Trubisky bashing has been overdone, but I can think of only one explanation of this that would give me comfort as a Browns fan -- the team is trying to take advantage of Trubisky fever and trade out of the one spot.

The easiest hypothetical is the 49ers want him, and the teams trade picks with the Browns getting yet more draft ammo. A trade at the top would make sense if there 5 to 10 players the Browns would be happy with in the early part of round 1.

Rich Cimini has been writing about a Jets-Browns trade involving 6 and 12 ... but what if was in the other direction? Under you scenario, maybe the Browns want to get the Jets to do a 6+ for 1 deal. Being at 6 would still give the Browns a good shot at a guy they like, and the + would lessen the blow if they were to package 12 for, say, a QB

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

Alright, the can't-beat-out point has been overplayed. Some people were cagey about it -- and for good reason: Tom Brady did not beat out Drew Henson for stretches of the 1998 and 1999 seasons at Michigan. Drew Henson, after a failed baseball career, got flushed out by the Dallas Cowboys. Sample size -- legitimate. Can't beat out -- the horse has been ridden to death.

Tom Brady got drafted in the 6th round because he was a risky pick. The fact that he panned out doesn't mean that other risky players will pan out.

This is like arguing that you should spend your life savings on a scratch ticket because somebody hit on one.

The problem with Trubisky isn't that he's going to fail (because we don't know that) - it's that he's way more likely to fail than your average top 10 pick quarterback, because the scouts have very little information about him compared to most top 10 guys. They have so little information because he wasn't good enough to start, which in and of itself is a bad sign.

We KNOW that with the right surrounding cast and play calling JG is capable of putting up elite performance for at least short periods of time. We don't know that Trubisky is capable of that - his floor is drastically lower than JGs. His ceiling may be higher - but again, we don't know because there's just not much film.

 

[dcmissle]

We know that about JG for a sample size of 1.5 games. And if we are talking about systemic risk, remember Matt Cassell, a career NFL backup who rode the team to an 11-5 record in 2008. Then there are Nick Foles, Derek Anderson, Steve Beurlein, Elvis Grbac, and a half dozen others before you get to the granddaddy of them all, Scotty Mitchell.

Risk is everywhere. And one could argue for a Patriots' discount applicable to anyone who runs through here based on the reasonable premise that he's likely headed to another team with browner grass.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Mary Kay Cabot is being ridden like a mule by somebody or bodies in Camp Browns. She is out again with a story that Trubisky remains under serious consideration for the 1/1.

I think some of the Trubisky bashing has been overdone, but I can think of only one explanation of this that would give me comfort as a Browns fan -- the team is trying to take advantage of Trubisky fever and trade out of the one spot.

The easiest hypothetical is the 49ers want him, and the teams trade picks with the Browns getting yet more draft ammo. A trade at the top would make sense if there 5 to 10 players the Browns would be happy with in the early part of round 1.

I heard an interesting take from Lombardi. Basically, he said he found it very ironic that the day prior to the Trubisky/Browns #1 rumor, the 49ers had seemed hot to trot to trade back from the #2 pick. He's hypothesizing that the 49ers put the initial rumor out to drum up interest for the #2 spot ("you could end up with Myles Garrett with our #2 pick.")

Considering he got roasted for the Sherman trade talk a week before it materialized, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on this one, too.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Unfortunately you can't fire the owner.


I'm not as in love with this draft as you are, especially at the top. For instance, CB (regarded as one of the better positions) is super-deep rounds 2-3 but not that many guys I'd use a first on. I would have no issue with a QB at 12.

I heard an interesting take from Lombardi. Basically, he said he found it very ironic that the day prior to the Trubisky/Browns #1 rumor, the 49ers had seemed hot to trot to trade back from the #2 pick. He's hypothesizing that the 49ers put the initial rumor out to drum up interest for the #2 spot ("you could end up with Myles Garrett with our #2 pick.")

Considering he got roasted for the Sherman trade talk a week before it materialized, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt on this one, too.

Is there any thoughts or rumors out there that link Kyle Shanahan to having interest in Jimmy G?

 

[nighthob]

Is there any thoughts or rumors out there that link Kyle Shanahan to having interest in Jimmy G?

That might explain Lombardi's remarks about the 49ers wanting to trade out of the #2 spot. Because the potential of Garrett at #2 would entice teams like the Panthers and Bengals into trading up, and adding the additional draft capital would ease the sting of trading a top 10 pick for Garappolo. So I guess it might make some sense.

 

[dcmissle]

Is there any thoughts or rumors out there that link Kyle Shanahan to having interest in Jimmy G?

Here's a way out-of-the-box thought, which I hinted at in the Deadskins thread a couple weeks back. Danny shocks the world by dealing Cousins to the Browns. He does it because he never liked Cousins and because Snyder hates losing at business and Cousins has kicked his ass at business for 2 years. And plainly he could walk out of here in a year or two for no compensation.

So Danny deals Cousins -- not to the 49ers because Shanahan loves Cousins and Danny would love to fuck over a Shanahan too. So to the Browns, for the #12 pick +. There the Deadskins draft Deshaun Watson and add another good player with their pick at 17.

What does Shanahan do? He rather plainly is waiting on Cousins. A few weeks back, he said some good things about JG too. There is your opening for JG To SF.

There are a lot of problems with this. First and foremost, I think Pats have little if any interest in dealing JG. Second, unless Shanahan and BB sniff this out in advance, it's hard to imagine a trade of JG being consummated in 10 minutes. Third, Snyder could defer the announcement of a Cousins trade until after SF picks at 2 or trades out if there. Factors 2 and 3 likely mean that the Pats would not get a first rounder this year.

All this is hopelessly speculative and bizarre. But it's not as if the hard news is giving us any encouragement.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Personally, I've changed my opinion on what we'll do. I think we keep him long term and BB figures out how the $$ must work until Brady retires. But I don't agree its a SSS on JG. I think you've got enough game tape between preseason and last year to have a good idea what you're going to get if you trade for JG. Plus we've had joint practices the last 3 offseasons (I think its been all 3), so 3 different teams have seen him up close. Last year of course those reps were with the first team. So ultimately, I'd much rather have JG if I was an NFL team looking for a QB than take a chance on a veteran that has flamed out with another team or a college QB, either this year or Darnold.

I'm just hoping he's our QB into the next decade.

 

[axx]

I think we keep him long term and BB figures out how the $$ must work until Brady retires.

You have to be realistic, there's no way the money can work. It kind of kills the trade value since teams know he'll be available next year.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

You have to be realistic, there's no way the money can work. It kind of kills the trade value since teams know he'll be available next year.

BB tagged Matt Cassel when Brady had a cap hit of 17m on the books. Now he traded Cassel, but when he tagged him, there was no guarantee Brady's knee would be ready, and had a trade not materialized, he would have had 2 QB's eating up 23% of the cap. He was prepared to do it. I'm not saying I know how the contracts would work, but if BB thinks JG is his QB of the future, he'll make it work.

The cap for 2017 is $167M. If it increases like it did this year, the 2018 cap will be around $180M. Not that he'd do it, but 23% is $41.4M. We just won the super bowl with $12M to spare in cap space. I think if he wants to give JG some sort of transition contract until he's a starter, he'll have $$ to make it work for both sides.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I'm just not sure how you'd convince Jimmy G to sign a long-term deal under any circumstances where Brady remains on the team. And is he really going to sit back and stoically wait until he's 28 to become a starter?

I don't see it.

 

[Reverend]

I'm just not sure how you'd convince Jimmy G to sign a long-term deal under any circumstances where Brady remains on the team. And is he really going to sit back and stoically wait until he's 28 to become a starter?

I don't see it.

What if JimmyG sees his own career with the Patriots as playing out until 2030 and beyond?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

BB tagged Matt Cassel when Brady had a cap hit of 17m on the books. Now he traded Cassel, but when he tagged him, there was no guarantee Brady's knee would be ready, and had a trade not materialized, he would have had 2 QB's eating up 23% of the cap. He was prepared to do it. I'm not saying I know how the contracts would work, but if BB thinks JG is his QB of the future, he'll make it work.

The cap for 2017 is $167M. If it increases like it did this year, the 2018 cap will be around $180M. Not that he'd do it, but 23% is $41.4M. We just won the super bowl with $12M to spare in cap space. I think if he wants to give JG some sort of transition contract until he's a starter, he'll have $$ to make it work for both sides.

If he tags JG he's now paying the backup more than the starter, which is to say nothing of the fact that it's Tom Brady, he off the annual under market deal that he'd be paid more than. That's not how BB allocates cap space and it's not the system they have set up.

Cassel was most certainly discussed before Pioli left to go to KC in 2009. To think the two didn't talk about it seems naive to me. He tagged him because he knew he had a deal in place and Pioli needed a QB, one that he had familiarity with beyond game tape.

I have no earthly idea why JG would take a 'transition' type of contract to sit on the bench for another unspecified amount of seasons until Dorian Gray hangs up the cleats, when he could get far more on the open market; or if your idea is correct, guarantee himself $25M by forcing them to franchise him. He should fire Don Yee if he suggests it. And I think he'd be a fool if he took it based on Patriots Kool Aid. Yes, winning is great, but these guys should go after every dollar they can get; winning is icing.

Edit: apologies if that comes off as combative, it's not meant to be. I just think there's a lot of wishful thinking on this floating around and not much reality. It sucks and it stinks and it sucks but I think there's very little chance JG is successor to TB. I'd love to be wrong on that, but it's a problem I'd take any day.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Edit: apologies if that comes off as combative, it's not meant to be. I just think there's a lot of wishful thinking on this floating around and not much reality. It sucks and it stinks and it sucks but I think there's very little chance JG is successor to TB. I'd love to be wrong on that, but it's a problem I'd take any day.

I think you are likely right that he will not be the successor.

That said, if we break the decision down into this year only, it's possible that Bill values the optionality of keeping JG for the 2017 season over the obviously substantial potential trade haul. He could reason that QB is the most important position in sports, Jimmy is a potential franchise QB and that he would rather keep Jimmy around for another year to preserve the option given injury risk, the possibility that Brady could start showing his age and other unexpected outcomes.

I know that would be very out of the box thinking given what Jimmy would garner in a trade. But BB is a very out of the box thinker.

 

[Dotrat]

Is there any thoughts or rumors out there that link Kyle Shanahan to having interest in Jimmy G?

Nothing recent that I'm aware of, but shortly after SF hired Shanahan there were reports/rumors that he loved Jimmy G coming out of the draft and that the Niners might think about trading #2 to the Pats for him.

 

[Average Reds]

We know that about JG for a sample size of 1.5 games. And if we are talking about systemic risk, remember Matt Cassell, a career NFL backup who rode the team to an 11-5 record in 2008. Then there are Nick Foles, Derek Anderson, Steve Beurlein, Elvis Grbac, and a half dozen others before you get to the granddaddy of them all, Scotty Mitchell.

Risk is everywhere. And one could argue for a Patriots' discount applicable to anyone who runs through here based on the reasonable premise that he's likely headed to another team with browner grass.

This is a great post.

It's worth pointing out that if it were all about pure talent, Jeff George would be the iconic NFL QB of our times. However, the alignment of variables necessary for QBs to succeed in the NFL is so elusive that it is almost a form of alchemy. Only the truly elite coaches know (and can replicate) the formula and posses the skill to properly identify/evaluate talent that fits within their formula. These coaches - and BB is unquestionably the best - enjoy an incredible advantage.

 

[TheoShmeo]

This is a great post.

It's worth pointing out that if it were all about pure talent, Jeff George would be the iconic NFL QB of our times. However, the alignment of variables necessary for QBs to succeed in the NFL is so elusive that it is almost a form of alchemy. Only the truly elite coaches know (and can replicate) the formula and posses the skill to properly identify/evaluate talent that fits within their formula. These coaches - and BB is unquestionably the best - enjoy an incredible advantage.

Yep, and that's why I am not as effusive about DC's post as you are. IF -- and I I know it's a big IF -- Belichick is actually going to hold onto Jimmy in 2017 and pass up the trade return, he is not simply going on 1.5 games. His judgment also would be informed by his elite evaluation skills and that he's seen Jimmy in practice and been around him for three seasons.

Said differently, yeah, maybe fans are rushing to judgment on Jimmy and to the extent that the "we" at the beginning of DC's post refers just to fans, fine. I will admit that I think I saw a potential franchise QB in those six quarters and that the sample size is ridiculously small, even if I bolded and italicized the word "potential." But if Bill keeps him, I'm guessing he thinks the sum total of his JG observations leads to the conclusion that this guy might truly be elite. Otherwise, the same coach who had the likes of Rohan Davey as his primary back-up should trade Jimmy in a heartbeat.

 

[dcmissle]

I agree with you Theo and hold two apparently -- but not really -- conflicting beliefs at the same time. I get other teams' skepticism and BB valuing him very highly.

No team is ever going to achieve the same comfort level with JGs abilities and promise that the Pats have. Sure, they can pop in film of two games that meant something and evaluate it nearly as accurately as BB (so long as they know what the Pats were attempting to accomplish in each play, which is why I add "nearly"). And sure, any interested team can look at tape of every college game he played, as if he were in this year's draft. I would do both of these things before making any offer for him, and the two pro games would merely be confirmatory if I like him. But any other team is never going to be able to evaluate years of minicamps, OTAs and regular season practice. These other teams are never going to have as firm a handle on his work ethic, study skills, how he carries himself with teammates and so forth. If BB values JG more highly than any other team, it's not because these other teams are stupid. It's because they don't have the same knowledge base.

It appears right now that the Pats are loathe to trade him, and I'm very happy about that. But if I were in trading partner's shoes, I would be skeptical.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

If he tags JG he's now paying the backup more than the starter, which is to say nothing of the fact that it's Tom Brady, he off the annual under market deal that he'd be paid more than. That's not how BB allocates cap space and it's not the system they have set up.

Cassel was most certainly discussed before Pioli left to go to KC in 2009. To think the two didn't talk about it seems naive to me. He tagged him because he knew he had a deal in place and Pioli needed a QB, one that he had familiarity with beyond game tape.

I have no earthly idea why JG would take a 'transition' type of contract to sit on the bench for another unspecified amount of seasons until Dorian Gray hangs up the cleats, when he could get far more on the open market; or if your idea is correct, guarantee himself $25M by forcing them to franchise him. He should fire Don Yee if he suggests it. And I think he'd be a fool if he took it based on Patriots Kool Aid. Yes, winning is great, but these guys should go after every dollar they can get; winning is icing.

Edit: apologies if that comes off as combative, it's not meant to be. I just think there's a lot of wishful thinking on this floating around and not much reality. It sucks and it stinks and it sucks but I think there's very little chance JG is successor to TB. I'd love to be wrong on that, but it's a problem I'd take any day.

No issues with your tone. I'm not suggesting that we would tag JG to keep him, just that if BB feels there is a way to work it out, he has in the past flirted with that 23% as a real possibility. So if it were to happen, I'd imagine a base as a backup with some bonus language based on games started in a 4 year contract range. I may be optimistic, but if you're JG I think there is a chance a deal in the mid teens for a few years for the chance to be the #1 guy in NE for an additional 8 or so, is a better deal than the unknown of a trade and the possibility of a post-NE career that could mirror Cassel, Hoyer, or Mallet. There are some teams that are an absolute trainwreck in this league, and I'd like to think there would be some long term thinking for JG that NE would be his best option, but who knows. It would take both sides to make something like that work. But I could see Brady with a cap hit of 20-24 and JG in the 12-16 range working for a few transition years.

Like I said, I might be being optimistic. This might be as simple as Bill just doesn't think its worth having JB as the sole backup for 2017 and he's doing whats best for this team right now.

 

[snowmanny]

But any other team is never going to be able to evaluate years of minicamps, OTAs and regular season practice. These other teams are never going to have as firm a handle on his work ethic, study skills, how he carries himself with teammates and so forth. If BB values JG more highly than any other team, it's not because all these other teams are completely stupid, only some of them. In some cases, It's because they don't have the same knowledge base.

It appears right now that the Pats are loathe to trade him, and I'm very happy about that. But if I were in trading partner's shoes, I would be skeptical.

FTFY

McCarron, Mahomes, Watson, Kizer Trubisky. Which of those guys would anyone bet will get to two pro bowls before Garoppolo?

 

[InstaFace]

I'd probably bet on Watson from that list. There are lots of scenarios where a healthy Garoppolo doesn't start for a few years, I don't see any where a healthy Watson doesn't.

 

[E5 Yaz]

We can't even be sure Garoppolo is going to be a Pro Bowl quarterback

 

[snowmanny]

I didn't mean to imply that he would. I'd just bet on him over Kizer, McCarron and Watson, who are the only three I've seen enough of to have a weakly-informed position (as opposed to a totally uninformed position). I'd be surprised if he was below 2nd or 3rd on anyone's list, and three of those guys are going in the first round.

Edit: besides backing up Brady for much-more-than-backup money, what are the other scenarios, InstaFace, that a healthy Garoppolo isn't a starter in 2018? Someone will pay him to start, I think.

 

[DJnVa]

We can't even be sure Garoppolo is going to be a Pro Bowl quarterback

Well, that's what a bet is.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Well, that's what a bet is.

I took it, probably incorrectly, that he was setting JG as the base and the others as the field. ... with the implication that it was a certainty JG would eventually make two Pro Bowls before any of the others.

 

[dbn]

I don't think the Matt Cassel situation is an apt comparison, as Brady was coming off a lost year and at the time they had to make the decision to franchise Matt it wasn't entirely clear that Tom would be ready to start the '09 season.

 

[Stitch01]

No issues with your tone. I'm not suggesting that we would tag JG to keep him, just that if BB feels there is a way to work it out, he has in the past flirted with that 23% as a real possibility. So if it were to happen, I'd imagine a base as a backup with some bonus language based on games started in a 4 year contract range. I may be optimistic, but if you're JG I think there is a chance a deal in the mid teens for a few years for the chance to be the #1 guy in NE for an additional 8 or so, is a better deal than the unknown of a trade and the possibility of a post-NE career that could mirror Cassel, Hoyer, or Mallet. There are some teams that are an absolute trainwreck in this league, and I'd like to think there would be some long term thinking for JG that NE would be his best option, but who knows. It would take both sides to make something like that work. But I could see Brady with a cap hit of 20-24 and JG in the 12-16 range working for a few transition years.

Like I said, I might be being optimistic. This might be as simple as Bill just doesn't think its worth having JB as the sole backup for 2017 and he's doing whats best for this team right now.

40 million of cap on the quarterback position for a few years seems excessive. There's also the issue that BB isn't exactly a spring chicken himself, possible that JimmyG looks as what is being transitioned to in 2020 or whatever or doesn't like the next contract offered and decides to peace out at the end of his deal

Something more then the Mike Glennon contract with more guaranteed money would probably be the opening gambit in negotiations, and that's assuming that JimmyG is cool with sitting on the bench for an indeterminate amount of time. They should offer him like 35-40 guaranteed if they are serious about going down this path. Or, actually, if they really can't countenance losing JimmyG they should trade or cut Brady after this season regardless of how he plays (this won't happen)

QBs are valuable, its possible BB just values the option where on the 5 percent chance this is Brady's last year they have an in house option they like, that's fine. Its also possible no one has offered a first round pick for JimmyG, which would make holding onto him easier. Or its possible that Jimmy has made it clear he won't sign an extension or will only go certain places. We don't really have all the information.

Didnt multiquote on the phone, but the Cousins to Cleveland thing, beyond the problems mentioned, has the problem that Cousins can just say "cool. Im going to SF first chance I get. Feel free to pay me 35 million for one more year if you want though, that's fine too"

 

[snowmanny]

I took it, probably incorrectly, that he was setting JG as the base and the others as the field. ... with the implication that it was a certainty JG would eventually make two Pro Bowls before any of the others.

Eh. my writing wasn't the best.