2017 Dolphins: On the Right Track
- Thread starter sodenj5
- Start date
I suspect the problem is ownership, not the gm--big name free agents are lot easier to market than re-signing a swing tackle, a DT and a special teams maven.
Miami was pretty quiet the last offseason. I could make the argument that Gase was their splashiest signing. If you want to insist that Williams was a "splashy FA signing" while they let OV and Lamar Miller walk for big dollars to other teams, that's fine.
I think it took a while, but the light has finally come on for Ross. I think he was quoted a few times last year and he realizes that absolutely nothing puts butts in seats the way winning does. We'll see if his new philosophy still holds true, but Miami has some momentum on their side for about the first time in a decade.
So...Albert wasn't released yet evidently there is a team who might be willing to trade for him. Probably for a 6th or 7throunder
Split out from 2016 thread for the new year. Thanks to s5 and all other Phins fans for doing a great job all last year.
Looks like the trade is going to be straight up Albert for Julius Thomas, with both guys likely restructuring their contracts before the deal is finalized.
Thomas was an elite receiving weapon under Gase in Denver. He's had trouble staying on the field and never really found a fit in Jacksonville's offense. I think, if he has a clean bill of health, he can be a big weapon for Miami. That's a lot of if's, but I feel comfortable knowing he and Gase already know each other and he is going to come in knowing the offense pretty well on day one. Thomas is actually the guy that called Jordan Cameron and told him he needed to stay in Miami because he would thrive in Gase's offense.
Obviously that never materialized, but it all seems positive having Julius Thomas and Gase reunite in Miami. Thomas had 12 TDs in each season under Gase. That kind of production doesn't just grow on trees. Also frees Miami up to address the defensive side of the ball in the first round and not concern themselves with Howard or Njoku.
Thomas was an elite receiving weapon under Gase in Denver. He's had trouble staying on the field and never really found a fit in Jacksonville's offense. I think, if he has a clean bill of health, he can be a big weapon for Miami. That's a lot of if's, but I feel comfortable knowing he and Gase already know each other and he is going to come in knowing the offense pretty well on day one. Thomas is actually the guy that called Jordan Cameron and told him he needed to stay in Miami because he would thrive in Gase's offense.
Obviously that never materialized, but it all seems positive having Julius Thomas and Gase reunite in Miami. Thomas had 12 TDs in each season under Gase. That kind of production doesn't just grow on trees. Also frees Miami up to address the defensive side of the ball in the first round and not concern themselves with Howard or Njoku.
Last edited:
I don't think the question is of talent or fit. It's whether or not they can keep Thomas on the field for the majority of the season. I have a lot of faith in Gase getting him the matchups and looks for him to exploit and using him as a mismatch in the offense. This video is just a reminder that he was really, really good at one point.
Updated reports now say the trade will not include an Albert/Thomas swap; but, instead, the Fins will likely receive a 6th or 7th '18 pick. Considering the fact that BA was going to be outright released, I consider any compensation a bonus. The true benefit is the added cap space and likely upgrade at LT (Tunsil).
Julius Thomas may still be cut. Despite his talent and previous success, I felt uneasy about Miami paying a 29-year-old, oft-injured TE 7/8.5/9 million over the next 3 years; though, based on his current contract, he could released after '17 with only 2.4 in dead money. Things to keep in mind: The TE FA market isn't stellar, and I'm not sure Njoku is the type of luxury pick the Fins can afford considering their various needs on defense.
Edit: Trade back on now? This is getting ridiculous.
According to Rapoport, the deal's done.
Julius Thomas may still be cut. Despite his talent and previous success, I felt uneasy about Miami paying a 29-year-old, oft-injured TE 7/8.5/9 million over the next 3 years; though, based on his current contract, he could released after '17 with only 2.4 in dead money. Things to keep in mind: The TE FA market isn't stellar, and I'm not sure Njoku is the type of luxury pick the Fins can afford considering their various needs on defense.
Edit: Trade back on now? This is getting ridiculous.
According to Rapoport, the deal's done.
Last edited:
Regarding the trade for Julius Thomas, I like this aspect:
http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/02/20/miami-dolphins-5-things-to-know-about-julius-thomas/
http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2017/02/20/miami-dolphins-5-things-to-know-about-julius-thomas/
Mike Tannenbaum is allergic to draft picks.
The Thomas acquisition is fine. I'm not buying that him being reunited with Gase is suddenly going to catapult him into the upper echelon of the position. Ultimately, he's a niche redzone option - but he's worth kicking the tires on considering the lack of production we've gotten from that position in recent years.
But I don't like trading away another pick in this year's draft - especially after that draft day trade last year where he shipped out multiple picks for a #4 WR in Carroo. I just get the distinct feeling that the guy has absolutely no idea how to value draft picks and navigate the draft process. I know the popular retort here is going to be 'but but but... Miller and OV compensatory picks' and while true - frankly it doesn't excuse the Carroo deal. How much better shape would this team be in heading into the new league season with two additional 2nd day picks in their back pocket?
The Thomas acquisition is fine. I'm not buying that him being reunited with Gase is suddenly going to catapult him into the upper echelon of the position. Ultimately, he's a niche redzone option - but he's worth kicking the tires on considering the lack of production we've gotten from that position in recent years.
But I don't like trading away another pick in this year's draft - especially after that draft day trade last year where he shipped out multiple picks for a #4 WR in Carroo. I just get the distinct feeling that the guy has absolutely no idea how to value draft picks and navigate the draft process. I know the popular retort here is going to be 'but but but... Miller and OV compensatory picks' and while true - frankly it doesn't excuse the Carroo deal. How much better shape would this team be in heading into the new league season with two additional 2nd day picks in their back pocket?
Well there's some coverage benefits to being the 3rd option after Demaryius Thomas, Emmanual Sanders and Erik Decker with Wes Welker also getting attention and a still excellent Peyton Manning throwing balls to you.
Ian Rapoport @RapSheet 4h4 hours ago
#Dolphins expected deal for Julius Thomas is for a 7th in '17. #Jaguars expected deal for Branden Albert if completed is for a '18 late pick
#Dolphins expected deal for Julius Thomas is for a 7th in '17. #Jaguars expected deal for Branden Albert if completed is for a '18 late pick
You guys crack me up sometimes. If there isn't an instant ROI, it's a bad deal, right? If Kenny Stills bolts in a few weeks, guess who is the number three WR on the roster? Leonte "Waste of Draft Picks" Carroo. It's ok to actually have a little foresight and plan ahead, and have some depth on the roster. Did Leonte Carroo fill an immediate need in 2016? No.
I recall a similar situation when Miami had Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and Brandon Gibson as their top 3 WRs and they wasted a 2nd round pick on a slow, small slot receiver. We should probably just chalk up Jarvis Landry as a complete miss. I'm willing to wait and see what Leonte Carroo becomes before calling the move a bad deal.
Regarding the Thomas trade specifically, this is they type of trade the Patriots have made many times. Sometimes you get Randy Moss. Sometimes you get Chad Johnson. The point is, taking a late round flyer on a guy with an already proven track record with not only the system, but the head coach, is something I'm comfortable with. What are the odds that a 6th or 7th round pick contributes to the team in any meaningful fashion in 2017? Pretty slim. If Thomas comes in and stinks and can't stay on the field, Miami can cut him at the end of the year without any major cap ramifications. Pretty straightforward deal on their end.
I don't want to say Miami has what Denver had because they don't. But they are building a stable of offensive weapons. Parker, Stills, Landry, and Ajayi are all dangerous in their own ways. Who do you double? Who do you take away? Miami's offense is going to present defenses with a lot of issues if everyone is healthy. We sort of started to see it click when Parker was actually healthy for about 3 games. Obviously, Stills is a question mark right now, but Miami is building and offense that can compete on many levels.
Carroo was drafted as insurance, yes, but the issue is that he was almost unanimously called a disappointment. I don't think anyone feels he's ready to step into Stills role. In fact, I think he's more of a Landry type than a downfield threat
I like the deal for Thomas, but the Fins offense still has a real problem with Tannehill. 19 TDs to 12 INTs puts him in the bottom third of QBs last season IMO. It's not because the OL either, they put up good sack numbers and middling QB pressure numbers. Put Kirk Cousins on this team and the Fins' O would be something else. Nevertheless, the loss of a 6th or 7th rounder is NBD, they need to hit on D with a couple of their early picks. They gave up too many rushing yards and too many passing TDs, which shows a real problem with the D as a whole. They did have a lot of INTs and excellent QB pressure so there is a foundation to build on, but that to me indicates some real weakness in the LB corps and secondary.
Funny you mention foresight - where was Tannebaum's when he was selecting a luxury pick in Carroo as the front seven on the opposite side of the ball was literally falling apart? You know - this wasn't a good run defense in 2015 either. People in last year's iteration of this very thread were commenting in July and August about the total lack of talent/depth at all three LB spots.
The Stills replacement argument makes zero sense. Carroo doesn't have the deep speed to replicate what Stills brings to this offense. But for the sake of argument, let's assume he does for a second. If they keep Stills (and from every indication, the FO is going to make it a priority), what was the point of the Carroo draft day deal? They're not letting Landry walk and they had just used a 1st round pick on Parker. What was this master plan that Tannenbaum envisioned where he could find the necessary snaps to promote Carroo's growth at the position? Despite your weird defense of this move, it was and continues to be an indefensibly bad utilization of draft resources. It has nothing to do with Carroo's production or lackthereof last season, its about the opportunity cost.
Last edited:
Stills and Carroo are not the same player, you're correct about that. The defense had holes last year and may have bigger holes now. Look at the names of LBs drafted after the third round where Carroo was picked. Can you even recognize a single name? It's not like they passed up on some stud. They said repeatedly Carroo is a guy they targeted and had valued much higher than a late third rounder. Is it the absolute best marriage of need and best player available? Probably not. Is it a complete waste like everyone seems to think it is? I don't think so. Taking a LB just for the sake of taking a LB makes less sense than taking a WR that you think can contribute in a meaningful way and value highly.
Is anyone mad that they drafted Tunsil when they already had a LT and LG on the roster? They could have taken Myles Jack. Why is no one complaining that we have Tunsil instead of Jack?
I don't know why you're running with this, but LB was simply an example of a position that was neglected by the selection of Carroo who, by your own admission, doesn't really have a role in this offense. DT would be another position, as is OG or hell even DE (since, you know, Wake will be 35 this season). The point is the pick would have been put to much better use at pretty much any other position on the roster.
People aren't upset at the Tunsil pick because Tannenbaum showed foresight (hey, there's that word!) by recognizing the age of BA and his rapidly declining skill-set. The Carroo pick on the other hand, showed absolutely zero foresight because Carroo cannot replicate the skills of the only asset in the WR core that has any chance of walking over the duration of his rookie deal.
My larger point is the draft is a crapshoot, especially outside of the first two rounds. Selecting someone does not equate to them being a successful member of your organization. Dion Jordan could have been a solution at either DE or LB but we obviously know how that worked out.
I'm more than fine with them selecting Carroo instead of ANOTHER Billy Turner or Dallas Thomas or Jamil Douglas for about the fifth straight year. Would selecting Nick Vigil or Charles Tapper or BJ Goodson instead of Carroo made you feel any better about the team this year? These are seriously the dudes that you're up in arms about Miami passing on. Miami won't get anywhere this year because they didn't take Joe Schoebert.
They addressed two huge needs in LT/LG Tunsil and CB in Howard in the first two rounds. After that, pick the guys you feel good about. What else can you ask for out of a draft?
I also don't concede the point of Carroo not having a place on the offense. He might not be a direct replacement in terms of speed that Stills has, but Carroo averaged right around 20 yards per catch his sophomore and junior years at Rutgers. The dude was a very productive receiver in college. He might not be an exact apples to apples replacement for Stills if he leaves, but that doesn't mean he can't operate within the offense and be successful.
I think there's an enormous difference between what you're writing here in bold - and what actually transpired in the Carroo deal. If it was their own pick - fine, but that wasn't close to the case. Instead, they traded a trove of picks (two of which were 2017) to move back into the 3rd round to pick a WR with no clear path to consistent snaps. If Stills is resigned, you've got a young player that's only going to be getting on the field in 4 WR-sets and/or an injury situation. How exactly do you expect any young player to blossom under those circumstances? And the (material) cost of the deal has yet to come due, though it will in another couple of months. Wouldn't they have been way better off just resigning Rishard Matthews and holding onto their 2017 mid-round picks? Certainly Matthews would've been a clear upgrade on the positional depth early season while Parker was working though his foot issues/inconsistency. And he would've only cost money. Also, let's stop referencing players from last draft that were selected during the second day - its not relevant.
I don't have a problem with Carroo as a player in a vacuum. He was productive at Rutgers, I'm not debating that. For this team though, he was a quintessential luxury pick and from a roster construction standpoint, how Tannenbaum employed those picks was a disaster.
Last edited:
Thomas passed his physical, the trade is all but official at this point. Crossing off TE from the needs list is nice.
I think it's time to start discussing possible draft picks for Miami at 22, assuming they stay at 22 and assuming they now focus their resources on defense in the first round:
OLB Zach Cunningham
DE Taco Charlton
OLB/DE Tim Williams
Of those three, the guy I'm hoping falls to Miami is Tim Williams, who might be the best pure pass rusher in the draft. He's not great at defending the run or covering anyone, but you can turn him loose to get after the QB. He was originally mocked much higher, but his recent off-field issues may cause him to fall in the draft. Him being available at 22 is not an out of the question scenario.
My second preference would probably be Zach Cunningham. He would be a really good fit at WLB in Miami's attacking 4-3 scheme. Having two speedy, athletic LBs in Alonso and Cunningham would allow Miami to match up well with TEs and RBs out of the backfield.
Charlton is a guy that seems to be rising up boards. He may not be available at 22 as more and more people are looking at his measurables and his recent production at Michigan and his stock continues to trend upward.
There are other DEs and LBs that could be later first round fits, but those three are probably my personal preference.
I think it's time to start discussing possible draft picks for Miami at 22, assuming they stay at 22 and assuming they now focus their resources on defense in the first round:
OLB Zach Cunningham
DE Taco Charlton
OLB/DE Tim Williams
Of those three, the guy I'm hoping falls to Miami is Tim Williams, who might be the best pure pass rusher in the draft. He's not great at defending the run or covering anyone, but you can turn him loose to get after the QB. He was originally mocked much higher, but his recent off-field issues may cause him to fall in the draft. Him being available at 22 is not an out of the question scenario.
My second preference would probably be Zach Cunningham. He would be a really good fit at WLB in Miami's attacking 4-3 scheme. Having two speedy, athletic LBs in Alonso and Cunningham would allow Miami to match up well with TEs and RBs out of the backfield.
Charlton is a guy that seems to be rising up boards. He may not be available at 22 as more and more people are looking at his measurables and his recent production at Michigan and his stock continues to trend upward.
There are other DEs and LBs that could be later first round fits, but those three are probably my personal preference.
Whoa. They still needs TE. Thomas is a horrific blocker. They need to resign Sims.
Needs:
Two starting guards
Blocking TE
Backup T
Backup C/G
Two DE
Two DT
Inside LB
Strong side linebacker
Backup linebacker
CB slot
CB outside
Safety
That's a lot. My hope is they trade down at 1 and get a second and fourth or equivalent. Their lack of depth has been downfall, especially on oline and defense
Needs:
Two starting guards
Blocking TE
Backup T
Backup C/G
Two DE
Two DT
Inside LB
Strong side linebacker
Backup linebacker
CB slot
CB outside
Safety
That's a lot. My hope is they trade down at 1 and get a second and fourth or equivalent. Their lack of depth has been downfall, especially on oline and defense
Dolphins got a third and two fifths as compensatory picks for losing Vernon, Miller and Matthews.
So I think they now have 1-2-3-5-5-5-6 in 17 draft
So I think they now have 1-2-3-5-5-5-6 in 17 draft
Not only did they get three picks, they got the #1 comp pick possible. Pretty much a best case scenario for Miami.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-2017-free-agency-preview-miami-dolphins/?utm_content=buffer34628&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl
I'd like the see Lang, Branch and Stills signed. Then use draft to get BPA at LB or DL, a guard and defense
I'd like the see Lang, Branch and Stills signed. Then use draft to get BPA at LB or DL, a guard and defense
Boy, if this is to believed, 12MM for Kenny Stills is way too much money. I would guess Miami has 7-8 million penciled in for Stills.
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article135184439.html
I value what he brings to the offense, but if he's looking for that kind of money, no way Miami can afford to keep him aboard. By all accounts, Carson Wentz is not a good downfield thrower presently. This has Tannehill and Wallace written all over it. Throwing that kind of money at Stills will put unnecessary pressure on Wentz to try and force the ball deep to Stills.
I don't think Stills is as one-dimensional as Wallace, and I think his ball skills are far better, but if you're paying him that kind of money, it's because you think the 10 TDs and resurgent play he showed in 2016 are real. I think Miami tries to sell him on their current direction, his fit in Gase's offense, and his chemistry with Tannehill. I agree with the article in that if Stills is looking to maximize his value and bank account, it likely won't be with Miami.
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article135184439.html
I value what he brings to the offense, but if he's looking for that kind of money, no way Miami can afford to keep him aboard. By all accounts, Carson Wentz is not a good downfield thrower presently. This has Tannehill and Wallace written all over it. Throwing that kind of money at Stills will put unnecessary pressure on Wentz to try and force the ball deep to Stills.
I don't think Stills is as one-dimensional as Wallace, and I think his ball skills are far better, but if you're paying him that kind of money, it's because you think the 10 TDs and resurgent play he showed in 2016 are real. I think Miami tries to sell him on their current direction, his fit in Gase's offense, and his chemistry with Tannehill. I agree with the article in that if Stills is looking to maximize his value and bank account, it likely won't be with Miami.
A propos of nothing but thought I'd mention that I met Ryan Tannehill in an elevator today here in NYC. Was in a building owned by Ross so not sure the reason but a bunch of other guys were with him.
He didn't really like it when I mentioned that I am a Patriots fan.
He didn't really like it when I mentioned that I am a Patriots fan.
Interesting. On the Dolphins Snapchat, Tannehill, Wake, Jelani Jenkins, Michael Thomas and others were attending what Ross calls the Business Combine. Basically about life and career and business opportunities outside of football and for post-career success. Really cool of Ross, obviously a successful businessman, to share some of his wisdom and expertise with his players.
Cool. Cameron Wake was definitely there. I saw about 12-15 or so guys. More NFL owners need to do this.
They have done something similar at the University of Michigan, whose business school bears Ross's name. That one was called the Business Academy and happened around the same time of year. Plus it sounded like it was open to a bunch of NFLers, not just Dolphins. I know Brees was there last year.
That's a bit of a shame but I think FS might have been on Miami's radar anyways. Michael Thomas isn't the guy and IAQ is a bit of a journeyman.
There's so much I've wanted to respond to in this thread, but life's gotten really busy of late. Hopefully, I can contribute more soon. Really quickly ... IAQ did a really nice job last season. If he can't play in '17, he'll be missed. This news explains all the smoke coming out of Miami regarding the premiere safety prospects in this draft.
A few quotes from today's press:
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article135960963.html
A few quotes from today's press:
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article135960963.html
According to the Miami Herald, the Dolphins are "not convinced" sophomore WR Leonte Carroo is ready to handle third receiver duties.
It's why they're still trying to re-sign free agent Kenny Stills despite his exorbitant asking price. Last year, the Dolphins' front office was so smitten with Carroo they traded a 2016 sixth-round pick in addition to third- and fourth-round picks this year to select Carroo at No. 86 overall. Carroo earned only 120 offensive snaps and made no impact on special teams.
per rotoworld
It's why they're still trying to re-sign free agent Kenny Stills despite his exorbitant asking price. Last year, the Dolphins' front office was so smitten with Carroo they traded a 2016 sixth-round pick in addition to third- and fourth-round picks this year to select Carroo at No. 86 overall. Carroo earned only 120 offensive snaps and made no impact on special teams.
per rotoworld
Armando SalgueroVerified account @ArmandoSalguero
Dolphins balked at paying Olivier Vernon $8M per in Aug. 2015. Today paying $9M per to Andre Branch.
Dolphins balked at paying Olivier Vernon $8M per in Aug. 2015. Today paying $9M per to Andre Branch.
Branch gets a significant bump in pay, but Miami didn't have a ton of great options. They can still draft a DE, but Wake isn't getting younger and Fede and or a rookie would have been the other starter.
Branch isn't amazing at any one thing in particular but he was very solid for Miami and is young enough where he likely will be in his prime throughout the deal. Gives Miami some flexibility and cushion in addressing the DE position in the draft.
Kenny Stills is staying. We can officially run Carroo over with a bus. I have to say, based off the 12 million per season number that was floating around previously, I think 8/season for Stills is reasonable. He's still only 24 and seemed to really click in this offense and with Tannehill.
This number is way better than what I was anticipating. Difficult to not like.
Underpaid in relation to Branch money.
Just saw Schefter's second tweet. 8/year 20 guaranteed. He'll be 28 at the end of this deal.
Not a huge fan of the Branch contract, which I think was largely a function of the lack of alternative options, combined with "capflation". I think there's a handful of players, Vernon included, who should be giving Cameron Wake 5% of their new contract money. Wake's helped make quite a few men wealthy. I would have preferred to see Miami go cheap here and draft a player. On the plus side, it's a 3 year deal, and Branch will play the entirety of the contract on the right side of 30. Additionally, maybe a guy like Pierre-Paul ends up with 15/per, with Nick Perry around 12? If a guy like Shead signs cheaply, I'll 2nd-guess this move even further.
Like all, if not most, of you guys, I absolutely love the Stills deal. Definitely a hometown discount, even with the guaranteed number. A home run, as far as I'm concerned.
Like all, if not most, of you guys, I absolutely love the Stills deal. Definitely a hometown discount, even with the guaranteed number. A home run, as far as I'm concerned.
Lawrence Timmons coming to Miami for a visit. He plays middle LB and Kiki moves outside. It all makes sense
Except that stupid trade for caroo.
Except that stupid trade for caroo.